The Dollar’s Fate (In the Coming Year)

With apologies to Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

Listen, my children, and you shall hear
Of the dollar’s fate in the coming year
In the wake of a time that’s ne’er been seen
Since the Spanish Flu of Nineteen Eighteen
Perhaps Twenty-One will bring joy, not fear

Recapping Twenty shows that despite
A plague of biblical magnitude
The printing press revealed its might
As governments everywhere, debt, accrued
And flooded the markets with cash untold
(The better their citizens be controlled)
But all of that money was used, not for,
Increased production of goods onshore
Instead, for the purchase of stocks galore

Thus, equity markets at home rose higher
With Asia, too, on proverbial fire
Though Europe lagged, as the ECB
Was late to the party with more QE
Risk was embraced with a multiplier
Government bonds, though falling of late
Had seen yields tumble, year-to date
And lastly, the dollar, is now descending
As traders await this trend extending

Looking ahead, what can we expect?
Has Covid passed? Will ‘normal’ return?
Or are there surprises we’ve yet to learn?
Will stocks continue their flights of fancy?
Will bonds, inflation, at last detect?
Will dollars, everyone, start to spurn?
Will gold and bitcoin still seem chancy?

Regarding the virus, it’s not dead yet
Though hope springs eternal, and at last
The vaccines imply the worst has passed
But life, as we knew it, has been reset
Working from home (or living at work)
Is mainstream now, and not just a quirk
Office demand will certainly slide
And travel for business will lessen worldwide
Normal has changed, for boss and for clerk

Let us now speak of growth and inflation
Will growth improve on last year’s “success”?
Or will it instead fall flat and regress
Lockdown renewals bode ill for salvation
Policymakers constantly flail
As policy efforts constantly fail
Stimulus, fiscal, continues to flow
Interest rates are now forevermore low
Central banks tell us that this combination
Is perfect to counter a fearful stagnation
But in their efforts, good times to hail
The rising of prices will bypass their gaze
Leading to many more difficult days
GDP this year will struggle to One
Inflation, however, at Four, will not stun

How, then, will markets respond to this fate?
Equity prices at first will inflate
By spring, though, ‘twill be clear something’s amiss
Traders, their holdings, will start to truncate
While we shall not tumble into the abyss
Do not be shocked if the market does fall
Some twenty percent, at the least, is my call
What about bonds? How will they react?
Powell will ne’er let their prices contract
Yield Curve Control is the future we’ll see
Alongside the horror of pure MMT
Hence, ten-year bonds when December arrives
Will keep up their value, a cat with nine lives
One percent will be the height they attain
Implying the real yield most certainly dives
And so, the dollar will suffer great pain

Starting in Europe where Madame Lagarde
Is trying to keep up with Fed Chairman Jay
Sadly, what’s clear, at the end of the day
The ECB’s structure will make it too hard
While Fed and the Treasury work hand in hand
Pushing more money throughout all the land
Treaties in Europe have outcomes, unplanned
PEPP’s not enough for a rebound unscarred

Even though growth throughout Europe will sag
Even though prices will still be a drag
Nothing Lagarde can create will impact
The outcome, a euro that’s sure to move higher
Thus, if it’s something you need to acquire
At year-end, One-Thirty, you’ll need, that’s a fact

Tumultuous best describes last year’s UK
Twixt Covid and Brexit, the nation felt pain
Unhappily, this year, to Johnson’s dismay
Could worsen for every old bloke on the street
With growth in the toilet while prices show heat
It doesn’t seem much like Pound Sterling could gain

But real rates keep diving throughout the US
Offsetting those troubles, so if you need quid
Come Christmas, One-Fifty, if I had to guess
Is what they will cost as the dollar’s declined
Looking elsewhere, perhaps north of the border
Canada still seems a bit out of order
Oil’s rebounded but still seems confined
Meanwhile, housing there is quite well bid

However, again, it is Fed Chairman Jay
Who’s promised support for considerable time
Thus, when we get to our next Boxing Day
One-Fifteen for Loonies you’ll see on your screen
Eastward now, let’s turn our gaze as we glean
Whether the yen can continue its climb
Long-term, the dollar, its trend has been clear
Even before the debasement of late
Several percent, like a clock every year
Why would this year, something new, demonstrate?

Frankly, it won’t, as the Fed’s in control
Rather, the yen, will continue to roll
So, Winter Solstice this year will reveal
Dollar-Yen, Ninety-Six, where you can deal
Let us turn now to both future and past
Bitcoin and gold, which have both been amassed
Can both their prices continue to rise?
Certainly, as they’ve restricted supplies

For centuries, gold has defined what’s secure
Its glitter unblemished while paper’s debased
So, don’t be surprised if the relic’s embraced
As buyers pay Three Grand their wealth to insure
But youth has ideas which to many seem odd
And bitcoin is one such that’s been called a fraud
So, is it? Or is Bitcoin digital gold?
An updated version important to hold
As fiat debasement continues apace
This digital token gains further allure
And this year it seems Bitcoin’s making its case
As something that everyone needs to procure

It’s starting this year right around thirty grand
And hodlers believe that ‘tween here and the sky
Unless countries call for Bitcoin to be banned
A doubling or tripling’s the gain they’ll apply
One last thing I’ll highlight in digital space

The DCEP is now leading the race
This digital yuan, the first CBDC
Is coming soon courtesy of Mr Xi
It’s impact initially is quite unclear
But I guarantee that inside of a year
Nations worldwide will each roll out their own
And each will define a DC trading zone

While last year was filled with surprises galore
This year we’re likely to see many more
And finally, thank you, my readers and friends
For listening to all the twists and the bends
Now looking ahead to Twenty Twenty-One
Let’s all keep perspective and try to have fun.

Good luck, stay safe and have a wonderful new year
Adf

DCEP = Digital Currency / Electronic Payment
CBDC = Central Bank Digital Coin

One thought on “The Dollar’s Fate (In the Coming Year)

  1. Thanks Andy. I’ve always enjoyed the annual forecast. Very creative Have a great year! Rob

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

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