When Boris and Leo had lunch
No panties were balled in a bunch
The signals showed promise
And no doubting Thomas
Appeared, as both sides felt time’s crunch
Meanwhile, though there’s been no bombshell
The trade talks have gone “very well”
Today Trump meets He
And then we will see
If a deal betwixt sides can now gel
And finally from the Mideast
The story ‘bout risk has increased
A tanker attack
Had market blowback
With crude a buck higher at least
There is no shortage of important stories today so let’s jump right in. Starting with Brexit, yesterday’s lunch meeting between Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar, the Irish PM, turned into something pretty good. While the comments have been very general, even EU president Donald Tusk as said there were “promising signals.” It is crunch time with the deadline now less than three weeks away. Apparently, the rest of the EU is beginning to believe that Boris will walk with no deal, despite the Benn Act requiring him to ask for an extension if there is no deal in place. At the same time, everybody is tired of this process and the EU has many other problems, notably a declining economy, to address. And so, I remain confident that we will soon hear, probably early next week, about a ‘deal in principle’ which will be ratified by Parliament as well as the EU. Though all the details will not have been completed, there will be enough assurances on both sides to get it through. Remember, Boris has Parliament on his side based on the deal he showed them. I’m pretty sure that his conversation with Leo yesterday used that as the starting point.
When that news hit the tape yesterday morning a little past 10:00, the pound started a significant rally, ultimately gaining 2% yesterday and it is higher by a further 1.0% this morning after more promising comments from both sides of the table. Remember, too, that the market remains extremely short pound Sterling and has been so for quite a while. If I am correct, then we could see the pound well above 1.30 as early as next week. Of course, if it does fall apart, then a quick trip back to 1.20 is on the cards. As I have said, my money is on a deal. One other thing to note here is what happened in the FX options market. For most of the past twelve years, the risk reversal (the price the market pays for 25 delta puts vs. 25 delta calls) has traded with puts at a premium. In fact earlier this year, the 1mo version was trading at a 2.5 vol premium for puts. Well, yesterday, the risk reversal flipped positive (bid for calls) and is now bid more than 1.0 vol for GBP calls. This is a huge move in this segment of the market, and also seen as quite an indicator that expectations for further pound strength abound.
Regarding the trade talks, risk assets have taken a very positive view of the comments that have come from both sides, notably President Trump describing things as going “very well” and agreeing to meet with Chinese Vice-premier Liu He this afternoon before he (He) returns to Beijing. The information that has come out points to the following aspects of a deal; a currency pact to insure the Chinese do not weaken the renminbi for competitive advantage; increased Chinese purchases of grains and pork; a US promise not to increase tariffs going forward as the broader negotiations continue; and the lifting of more sanctions on Chinese companies like Huawei and COSCO, the Chinese shipping behemoth. Clearly, all of that is positive and it is no surprise that equity markets globally have responded with solid gains. It is also no surprise that Treasury and Bund yields are much higher this morning than their respective levels ahead of the talks. In fact, Treasuries, which are just 1bp higher this morning, are up by more than 15bps since Tuesday. For Bunds, today’s price action shows no change in yields, but a 12bp move (less negative rates) since then. The idea is a trade deal helps global economic growth pick back up and quashes talk of deflation.
The last big story of the morning comes from the Persian Gulf, where an Iranian oil tanker, carrying about 1 million barrels of oil, was attacked by missiles near the Saudi port of Jeddah. At first the Iranians blamed the Saudis, but they have since retracted that statement. It should be no surprise that oil prices jumped on the news, with WTI futures quickly rallying more than a dollar and maintaining those gains since then. One of the key depressants of oil prices has been the global economic malaise, which does not yet look like it is over. However, if the trade truce is signed and positive vibes continue to come from that area, I expect that oil prices will benefit greatly as well.
As to the FX market per se, the dollar is overall under pressure. Of course, the pound has been the biggest mover in the G10 space, but AUD has gained 0.55% and the rest of the block is higher by roughly 0.3%. The only exceptions here are the yen (-0.3%) and Swiss franc (-0.1%) as haven assets are unloaded.
Turning to the EMG bloc, ZAR is today’s big winner, rallying more than 1.1% on two features; first the general euphoria on trade discussed above and second on the news that former President Jacob Zuma must face corruption charges. The latter is important because it demonstrates that the rule of law may be coming back into favor there, always a benefit for an emerging market. But most of the space is firmer this morning, with many currencies higher by between 0.5% and 0.6% (RUB, KRW, PLN, HUF, MXN, etc.) In fact, the only loser this morning is TRY (-0.4%), which remains under pressure as President Erdogan presses his military campaign against the Kurds in Syria.
On the data front, the only US news is Michigan Sentiment (exp 92.0) but we also get the Canadian employment picture (exp 7500 new jobs and a 5.7% Unemployment Rate). Three more Fed speakers, Kashkari, Rosengren and Kaplan, are on the slate, but so far, the only clarity of message we have received this week is that everybody is watching the data and will respond as they see fit. Hawks are still hawks and doves are still doves.
I see no reason for the dollar to regain ground today assuming the good news from Trade and Brexit continue. So look for a further decline into the holiday weekend.
Good luck and good weekend
PS. While typing, the pound jumped another 1.0%.