Monthly Archives: June 2020

Overthrow

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Health data are starting to show
A second wave might overthrow
The rebound we’ve seen
From Covid-19
Which clearly will cause growth to slow

Risk is under pressure this morning as market participants continue to read the headlines regarding the rising rate of Covid infections in some of the largest US states, as well as throughout a number of emerging market nations. While this is concerning, in and of itself, it has been made more so by the fact that virtually every government official has warned that a second wave will undermine the progress that has been made with respect to the economic rebound worldwide. However, what seems to be clear is that more than three months into a series of government ordered shut downs that have resulted in $trillions of economic damage around the world, people in many places have decided that the risk from the virus is not as great as the risk to their personal economic well-being.

And that is the crux of the matter everywhere. Just how long can governments continue to impose restrictions on people without a wholesale rebellion? After all, there have been many missteps by governments everywhere, from initially downplaying the impact of the virus to moving to virtual marital law, with early prognostications vastly overstating the fatality rate of the virus and seemingly designed simply to sow panic and exert government control. It cannot be surprising that at some point, people around the world decided to take matters into their own hands, which means they are no longer willing to adhere to government rules.

The problem for markets, especially the equity markets, is that their recovery seems to be based on the idea that not only is a recovery right around the corner, but that economies are going to recoup all of their pandemic related losses and go right back to trend activity. Thus, a second wave interferes with that narrative. As evidence starts to grow that the caseload is no longer shrinking, but instead is growing rapidly, and that governments are back to shutting down economic activity again, those rosy forecasts for a sharp rebound are harder and harder to justify. And this is why we have seen the equity market rebound stumble for the past three weeks. In that time, we have seen twice as many down sessions as up sessions and the net result has been a 5.5% decline in the S&P500, with similar declines elsewhere.

So, what comes next? It is very hard to read the news about the growing list of bankruptcies as well as the significant write-downs of asset values and order cancelations without seeing the bear case. The ongoing dichotomy between the stock market rally and the economic distress remains very hard to justify in the long run. Of course, opposing the real economic news is the cabal of global central banks, who are doing everything they can think of collectively, to keep markets in functioning order and hoping that, if markets don’t panic, the economy can find its footing. This is what has brought us ZIRP, NIRP and QE with all its variations on which assets central banks can purchase. Alas, if central bankers really believe that markets are functioning ‘normally’ after $trillions of interference, that is a sad commentary on those central bankers’ understanding of how markets function, or at least have functioned historically. But the one thing on which we can count is that there is virtually no chance that any central bank will pull back from its current policy stance. And so, that dichotomy is going to have to resolve itself despite central bank actions. That, my friends, will be even more painful, I can assure you.

So, on a day with ordinary news flow, like today, we find ourselves in a risk-off frame of mind. Yesterday’s US equity rally was followed with modest strength in Asia. This was helped by Chinese PMI data which showed that the rebound there was continuing (Mfg PMI 50.9, Non-mfg PMI 54.4), although weakness in both Japanese ( higher Jobless Rate and weaker housing data) and South Korean (IP -9.6% Y/Y) data detracted from the recovery story. Of course, as we continue to see everywhere, weak data means ongoing central bank largesse, which at this point still leads to equity market support.

Europe, on the other hand, has not seen the same boost as equity markets there are mostly lower, although the DAX (+0.4%) and CAC (+0.2%) are the two exceptions to the rule. UK data has been the most prevalent with final Q1 GDP readings getting revised a bit lower (-2.2% Q/Q from -2.0%) while every other sub-metric was slightly worse as well. Meanwhile, PM Johnson is scrambling to present a coherent plan to support the nation fiscally until the Covid threat passes, although on that score, he is not doing all that well. And we cannot forget Brexit, where today’s passage without an extension deal means that December 31, 2020 is the ultimate line in the sand. It cannot be a surprise that the pound has been the worst performing G10 currency over the past week and month, having ceded 2.0% since last Tuesday. With the BOE seriously considering NIRP, the pound literally has nothing going for it in the short run. Awful economic activity, questionable government response to Covid and now NIRP on the horizon. If you are expecting to receive pounds in the near future, sell them now!

Away from the pound, which is down 0.3% today, NOK (-0.6%) is the worst performer in the G10, and that is really a result of, not only oil’s modest price decline (-1.3%), but more importantly the news that Royal Dutch Shell is writing down $22 billion of assets, a move similar to what we have seen from the other majors (BP and Exxon) and an indication that the future value (not just its price) of oil is likely to be greatly diminished. While we are still a long way from the end of the internal combustion engine, the value proposition is changing. And this speaks to just how hard it is to have an economic recovery if one of the largest industries that was adding significant value to the global economy is being downgraded. What is going to take its place?

The oil story is confirmed in the EMG space as RUB is the clear underperformer today, down 1.4% as Russia is far more reliant on oil than even Norway. However, elsewhere in the EMG bloc, virtually the entire space is under pressure to a much more limited extent. The thing is, if we start to see risk discarded and equity markets come under further pressure, these currencies are going to extend their declines.

This morning’s US data is second tier, with Case Shiller Home Prices (exp +3.8%), Chicago PMI (45.0) and Consumer Confidence (91.4). The latter two remain far below their pre-covid levels and likely have quite some time before they can return to those levels. Meantime, Fed speakers are out in force today, led by Chair Powell speaking before a Congressional panel alongside Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. His pre-released opening remarks harp on the risk of a second wave as well as the uncertainty over the future trajectory of growth because of that. As well, he continues to promise the Fed will do whatever is necessary to support the economy. And in truth, we have continued to hear that message from every single Fed speaker for the past two months’ at least. What we know for sure is that the Fed is not going to change its tune anytime soon.

For today, unless Powell describes yet another new program, if he remains in his mode of warning of disaster unless the government does more, it is hard to see how investors get excited. Risk is currently on the back foot and I see nothing to change that view today.

Good luck and stay safe
Adf

A New Paradigm

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As mid-year approaches, it’s time
To ponder the central bank clime
Will negative rates
Appear in the States
And welcome a new paradigm?

With the end of the first half of 2020 approaching, perhaps it’s time to recap what an extraordinary six months it has been as well as consider what the immediate future may hold.

If you can recall what January was like, the big story was the Phase One trade deal, which was announced as almost completed at least half a dozen times, essentially every time the stock market started to decline, before it was finally signed. In hindsight, the fact that it was signed right at the beginning of the Lunar New Year celebrations in China, which coincided with the recognition that the novel coronavirus was actually becoming a problem, is somewhat ironic. After all, it was deemed THE most important thing in January and by mid-February nobody even cared about it anymore. Of course, by that time, Covid-19 had been named and was officially declared a pandemic.

As Covid spread around the world, the monetary responses were impressive for both their speed of implementation and their size. The Fed was the unquestioned leader, cutting rates 150bps in two emergency meetings during the first half of March while prepping the market for QE4. They then delivered in spades, hoovering up Treasuries, mortgage-backed bonds, investment grade corporate bonds and junk bonds (via ETF’s) and then more investment grade bonds, this time purchasing actual securities, not ETF’s. Their balance sheet has grown more than $3 trillion (from $4.1 trillion to $7.1 trillion) in just four months and they have promised to maintain policy at least this easy until the economy can sustainably get back to their inflation and employment goals.

On the fiscal front, government response was quite a bit slower, and aside from the US CARES act, signed into law in late March, most other nations have been less able to conjure up enough spending to make much of a difference. There was important news from the EU, where they announced, but have not yet enacted, a policy that was akin to mutualization of debt across the entire bloc. If they can come to agreement on this, and there are four nations who remain adamantly opposed (Sweden, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands), this would truly change the nature of the EU and by extension the Eurozone. Allowing transfers from the richer northern states to the struggling Mediterranean countries would result in a boon for the PIGS as they could finally break the doom-loop of their own nation’s banks owning the bulk of their own sovereign debt. But despite the support of both France and Germany, this is not a done deal. Now, history shows that Europe will finally get something along these lines enacted, but it is likely to be a significantly watered-down version and likely to take long enough that it will not be impactful in the current circumstance.

Of course, the ECB, after a few early stumbles, has embraced the idea of spending money from nothing and is in the process of implementing a €1.35 trillion QE program called PEPP in addition to their ongoing QE program.

Elsewhere around the world we have seen a second implementation of yield curve control (YCC), this time by Australia which is managing its 3-year yields to 0.25%, the same level as its overnight money. There is much talk that the Fed is considering YCC as well, although they will only admit to having had a discussion on the topic. Of course, a quick look at the US yield curve shows that they have already essentially done so, at least up to the 10-year maturity, as the volatility of yields has plummeted. For example, since May 1, the range of 3-year yields has been just 10bps (0.18%-0.28%) while aside from a one-week spike in early June, 10-year yields have had an 11bp range. The point is, it doesn’t seem that hard to make the case the Fed is already implementing YCC.

Which then begs the question, what would they do next? Negative rates have been strongly opposed by Chairman Powell so far, but remember, President Trump is a big fan. And we cannot forget that over the course of the past two years, it was the President’s view on rates that prevailed. At this time, there is no reason to believe that negative rates are in the offing, but in the event that the initial rebound in economic data starts to stumble as infection counts rise, this cannot be ruled out. This is especially so if we see the equity market turn back lower, something which the Fed seemingly cannot countenance. Needless to say, we have not finished this story by a long shot, and I would contend there is a very good chance we see additional Fed programs, including purchasing equity ETF’s.

Of course, the reason I focused on a retrospective is because market activity today has been extremely dull. Friday’s equity rout in the US saw follow through in Asia (Nikkei -2.3%, Hang Seng -1.0%) although Europe has moved from flat to slightly higher (DAX +0.5%, CAC +0.25%, FTSE 100 +0.5%). US futures are mixed, with the surprising outcome of Dow and S&P futures higher by a few tenths of a percent while NASDAQ futures are lower by 0.3%. The bond market story is that of watching paint dry, a favorite Fed metaphor, with modest support for bonds, but yields in all the haven bonds within 1bp of Friday’s levels.

And finally, the dollar is arguably a bit softer this morning, with the euro the leading gainer in the G10, +0.5%, and only the pound (-0.2%) falling on the day. It seems that there are a number of algorithmic models out selling dollars broadly today, and the euro is the big winner. In the EMG bloc, the pattern is the same, with most currencies gaining led by PLN(+0.65%) after the weekend elections promised continuity in the government there, and ZAR (+0.55%) which is simply benefitting from broad dollar weakness. The exception to the rule is RUB, which has fallen 0.25% on the back of weakening oil prices.

On the data front, despite nothing of note today, we have a full calendar, especially on Thursday with the early release of payroll data given Friday’s quasi holiday

Tuesday Case Shiller Home Prices 3.70%
  Chicago PMI 44.0
  Consumer Confidence 90.5
Wednesday ADP Employment 2.95M
  ISM Manufacturing 49.5
  ISM Prices Paid 45.0
  FOMC Minutes  
Thursday Initial Claims 1.336M
  Continuing Claims 18.904M
  Nonfarm Payrolls 3.0M
  Private Payrolls 2.519M
  Manufacturing Payrolls 425K
  Unemployment Rate 12.4%
  Average Hourly Earnings -0.8% (5.3% Y/Y)
  Average Weekly Hours 34.5
  Participation Rate 61.2%
  Trade Balance -$53.0B
  Factory Orders 7.9%
  Durable Goods 15.8%
  -ex transport 4.0%

Source: Bloomberg

So, as you can see, a full slate for the week. Obviously, all eyes will be on the employment data on Wednesday and Thursday. At this point, it seems we are going to continue to see data pointing to a sharp recovery, the so-called V, but the question remains, how much longer this can go on. However, this is clearly today’s underlying meme, and the ensuing risk appetite is likely to continue to undermine the dollar, at least for the day. We will have to see how the data this week stacks up against the ongoing growth in Covid infections and the re-shutting down of portions of the US economy. The latter was the equity market’s nemesis last week. Will this week be any different?

Good luck and stay safe
Adf

Time of Distress

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If banks in this time of distress
Are fine, at least in the US
Then why would the Fed
Stop dividends dead
While buy backs, forever suppress?

In a market that is showing little in the way of price volatility today, arguably the most interesting story is the results of the Fed’s bank stress tests that were released yesterday. There seemed to be a few inconsistencies between the actions and the words, although I guess we should expect that as standard operating procedure these days.

The punchline is the Fed halted share repurchases by banks while capping dividend payouts to no more than their average earnings for the past four quarters. In their tests they explained that, depending on the trajectory of the recovery, banks could lose between $560 billion (V-shaped) and $700 billion (U-shaped) in the coming year from loan losses. It ought not be that surprising that they would want to force banks to preserve capital in this situation, especially as the current Covid economy is far worse than any of their previous stress test parameters. And yet, the Fed explained that the banks were strongly capitalized, nonetheless. It strikes me that if they were so well capitalized, there would be no concerns over rewarding shareholders, but then again, I am just an FX guy.

But let’s take a look at the bigger picture. While the Fed has been doing everything in their power to prevent the equity market from declining, and so far have been doing a pretty good job in that regard, they have just laid out two of what I believe will be three regulations that are in our future. As populism rises worldwide and the 1% remain on the defensive, I expect that we are going to see widespread changes in the way capital markets work. Consider the following:

• Share repurchases are going to be a thing of the past. Now that the Fed has shown the way, I expect that regardless of who is in the White House after the election, one of the key lessons that will have been learned is that companies need to keep bigger rainy day funds, as well as invest more in their own businesses. At least that will be the spin when share repurchases are made illegal.
• Dividend caps are going to be the future as well. Here, too, with a nod toward reducing overall leverage and maintaining greater cash balances, dividends are going to be capped at some percentage of net income, probably averaged over several quarters so a single event will not necessarily disrupt that process, but dividend yields are going to decline as well. Of course, any yield will be better than the ongoing returns from ZIRP!
• Management salary caps. Finally, I think we will be able to look forward (?) to a time when senior management will have their salaries and bonuses capped at a multiple, and not a very large one, of the average employee’s salary.

The real question is, will these regulations apply only to publicly listed companies, or will there be an effort to change the way all businesses are managed in the US? But mark my words, this is the future, at least for a while.

If I am correct, and I truly hope I am not, then I think several other things will play out. First, these regulations will quickly be enacted in most nations. After all, if the US, the largest economy with the most sophisticated capital markets, can change the rules, so can everybody else. Second, this is going to play havoc with the Fed’s ongoing attempts to support equity prices. After all, restricting the ability of investors to earn a return is going to have a severe negative impact on valuations. However, the Fed will find themselves hard-pressed to argue against widespread adoption of these policies as they initiated them with the banks. Needless to say, risk assets are likely to find much reduced demand if there is less prospect of return.

To sum it up, there seems to be a real risk that we are going to see structural changes in capital markets that will result in permanently lower valuations, and the potential for a significant repricing of risk assets. This is not an imminent threat, but especially if there is a change in the White House and the Senate, this will quickly move up the agenda. Risk assets are likely to become far riskier, at least at current valuations.

But enough about my clouded crystal ball. Rather, a quick look at today’s session shows that yesterday afternoon’s US equity rally continued into Asia (Nikkei +1.1%, Sydney +1.5%) and Europe (DAX +1.1%, CAC +1.6%, FTSE 100 +1.55%) although US futures are actually little changed at this hour. Bond markets are edging higher, with yields declining on the order of 1bp-2bps across the haven markets, while oil is continuing to rebound from its sharp fall earlier this week.

FX markets are mixed in direction and have seen limited movement overall. In fact, the leading gainer this morning is the yen, up 0.3%, although despite some commentary that this is a haven asset move, that really doesn’t jive with what we are seeing in the equity space. Perhaps a better explanation is that CPI readings last night from Tokyo continue to show deflationary forces are rampant and, as we have seen for the past twenty years, that is a currency support. Kiwi is up a similar amount, but here, too, there is no news on which to hang our hat. On the flip side, we have seen tiny declines in SEK and GBP, and in truth, beyond yen and kiwi, no currency has moved more than 0.1%.

In the emerging markets, the picture is also mixed, with a similar number of gainers and losers, although magnitudes here are also relatively small. On the downside, RUB and ZAR have both fallen 0.4% while last night KRW managed a 0.35% gain. Both Russia and South Africa reported a jump in new Covid cases which seems to be overshadowing hopes of reopening the economy. As to the won, it was a beneficiary of both the equity risk rally as well as an apparent easing of tensions with North Korea.

On the data front, yesterday’s Initial Claims data was a bit concerning as though the number fell, it fell far less than expected. There are growing concerns that a second wave of layoffs is coming, although we continue to see companies reopening as well. I still believe this is the most relevant number going right now. This morning we get Personal Income (exp -6.0%), Personal Spending (9.2%), Core PCE (0.9% Y/Y) and Michigan Sentiment (79.2). While there will almost certainly be political hay made about the Income and Spending numbers, my sense is none of them will have much market impact. Rather, today is shaping up as a very quiet Friday as traders and investors look forward to a summer weekend.

Good luck, good weekend and stay safe
Adf

 

Over and Done

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Our planet, third rock from the sun
Has had a remarkable run
For ten years, at least
No famine, just feast
But now that streak’s over and done

The IMF said, yesterday
This year will see growth go away
For ‘Twenty, it’s clear
While next year they fear
A second wave, growth will delay

Fear was the order of the day yesterday amid several related stories. Headlines continue to highlight the resurgence in reported Covid cases in the US, notably in those states that have begun to reopen more aggressively. So, California, Texas and Florida have all seen a big jump in infections which many are saying requires a second lockdown. While no orders of that nature have yet been issued, it is clear there is a risk they will be deemed necessary. That would be quite the body blow to the US economy, as well as to the equity markets which are pretty clearly pricing in that elusive V-shaped recovery. If we see second order lockdowns, you can be pretty confident that the equity market will suffer significantly. Simply consider yesterday’s performance, with the three US indices all falling at least 2.2% without having to deal with any actual change in regulations.

Adding insult to injury was the IMF, which released its updated global GDP forecasts and is now looking for a more severe global recession with growth falling 4.9% in 2020. That is down from the -3.0% expectation in April. As well, they reduced their forecasts for 2021, albeit not as dramatically, to +5.4%, down 0.4% from the April forecasts. However, they warned that should a second wave manifest itself, 2021 could see essentially zero growth globally as unemployment worldwide explodes and poverty levels in the emerging markets explodes with it. In other words, they don’t really think we are out of the woods yet.

With that one-two punch, it is no surprise that we saw risk jettisoned yesterday as not only did equity markets suffer, but we saw demand for bonds (Treasury yields -4bps yesterday and another 1.5bps this morning) while the dollar saw broad-based demand, with the DXY rising 0.6% on the day. If nothing else, this is strong evidence that all markets are anticipating quite a strong recovery, and that anything that may disrupt that process is going to have a negative impact on risk asset prices.

Adding to the fun yesterday was oil’s 6% decline on data showing inventories growing more than expected, which of course means that demand remains lackluster. Certainly, I know that while I used to fill up the tank of my car every week, I have done so only once in the past three months! While that is good for my budget, it is not helping support economic activity.

The point is, the risk asset rally has been built on shaky foundations. Equity fundamentals like revenues and earnings are (likely) in the process of bottoming out, but the rally is based on expectations of a V. Every data point that indicates the V is actually a U or a W or, worst of all, an L, will add pressure on the bulls to continue to act solely because the Fed keeps purchasing assets. History has shown that at some point, that will not be enough, and a more thorough repricing of risk assets will occur. Part of that process will almost certainly be a very sharp USD rally, which is, of course, what matters in the context of this note.

Looking at how today’s session has evolved shows that Asian equity markets had a down session, with the Nikkei taking its cues from the US and falling 1.2%, and Australia suffering even more, down 2.5%. China and Hong Kong were closed while they celebrated Dragon Boat Day. European bourses are in the green this morning, but just barely, with the average gain just 0.15% at this hour following yesterday’s 1.3%-2.0% declines. And US futures have turned lower at this time after spending much of the overnight session in the green.

As mentioned, bond markets are rallying with yields falling correspondingly, while the dollar continues to climb even after yesterday’s broad-based strength. So, in the G10 space, the euro is today’s worst performer, down 0.4%, amid overall growing concerns of a slower rebound. While the German GfK Consumer Confidence survey printed better than expected (-9.6), it was still the second worst print in the series history after last month’s. Aside from the euro, perhaps the most interesting thing is that both CHF and JPY have fallen 0.2%, despite the demand for havens. There is no news from either nation that might hint at why these currencies are underperforming from their general risk stance, but as I wrote last week, it may well be that the demand for dollars is leading the global markets these days, rather than acting as a relief valve like usual.

Emerging market currencies are seeing a more broad-based decline, simply following on yesterday’s price action. I cannot ignore the 3.6% fall in BRL yesterday, as the Covid situation grows increasingly out of control there. While the market has not opened there yet, indications are that the real’s decline will continue. Meanwhile, today’s worst performer is HUF, down 1.3%, although here, too, there is no obvious catalyst for the decline other than the dollar’s strength. Now, from its weakest point in April, HUF had managed to rally nearly 12% through the beginning of the month but has given back 5.3% of that since. On a fundamental basis, HUF is highly reliant on the Eurozone economies performing well as so much of their economic activity is generated directly on the back of Europe. Worries over the Eurozone’s trajectory will naturally hit all of the CE4. And that is true today with CZK (-0.7%) and PLN (-0.55%) also amongst the worst performers. APAC currencies suffered overnight, but not to the extent we are seeing this morning, and LATAM seems set to pick up where yesterday’s declines left off.

On the data front, this morning brings the bulk of the week’s important data. Initial Claims (exp 1.32M) and Continuing Claims (20.0M) remain critical data points in the market’s collective eyes. Anything that indicates the employment situation is not getting better will have a direct, and swift, negative impact on risk assets. We also see Durable Goods (10.5%, 2.1% ex transport) and the second revision of Q1 GDP (-5.0%). One other lesser data point that might get noticed is Retail Inventories (-2.8%) which has been falling after a sharp rise in March, but if it starts to rise again may also be a red flag toward future growth.

Two more Fed speakers are on the docket, Kaplan and Bostic, but there is nothing new coming from the Fed unless they announce a new program, and that will only come from the Chairman. So, at this stage, I see no reason to focus on those speeches. Instead, lacking an exogenous catalyst, like another Fed announcement (buying stocks maybe?) it feels like risk will remain on the defensive for the day.

Good luck and stay safe
Adf

 

Off to the Races

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Though headlines describe the new cases
Of Covid, in so many places
The market’s real fear
Is later this year
The trade war is off to the races

Risk is under pressure today as, once again, concerns grow that increased trade tensions will derail the rebound from the Covid inspired global recession. You may recall yesterday’s fireworks in Asia after Peter Navarro seemed to describe the phase one trade deal as over. (Remember, too, President Trump quickly remedied that via Twitter.) This morning has seen a somewhat less dramatic market impact, although it has shown more staying power, after the Trump Administration explained that it was targeting $3.1 billion of European and UK goods for tariffs in a WTO sanctioned response to the EU’s illegal Airbus subsidies. Of course, the fact that they are sanctioned does not make them any less damaging to the economic rebound. Pretty much the last thing the global economy needs right now is something else to impede the flow of business. According to reports, the targeted goods will be luxury goods and high-end liquors, so the cost of that Hendricks and Tonic just might be going up soon. Naturally, the EU immediately responded that they would have to retaliate, although they have not released a list of their targets.

Needless to say, even the unbridled optimism over a central bank induced recovery was dented by these announcements as they are a direct attack on the idea that growth will rebound to previous levels quickly. Now, those tariffs are not yet in place, and the US has said they are interested in negotiating a better solution, but investors and traders (and most importantly, algorithms) are programmed to read tariffs as a negative and sell stocks. And so, what we have seen this morning is a solid decline across European bourses led by the DAX (-2.1%) and FTSE 100 (-2.3%) although the rest of the continent is looking at declines between of 1.25% and 1.75%. It is a bit surprising that the bond market has not seen things in quite the same light, with 10-year Treasury yields almost unchanged at this hour, as are German bund yields, and only Italian BTP’s seeing any real movement as yields there rise (prices fall) by 2bps. Of course, we recognize that BTP’s are more akin to stocks than bonds these days.

In the background, though, we continue to hear of a resurgence in Covid cases in many places throughout the world. In the US, newly reported infections are rising in many of the states that are going through a slow reopening process. There are also numerous reports of cases popping up in places that had seemed to have eliminated the virus, like Hong Kong, China and Japan. And then, there are areas, notably LATAM nations, that are seeing significant growth in the caseload and are clearly struggling to effectively mitigate the impact. The major market risk to this story is that economies around the world will be forced to stage a second shutdown with all the ensuing economic and financial problems that would entail. Remember, too, that if a second shutdown is in our future, governments, which have already spent $trillions they don’t have, will need to find $trillions more. At some point, that is also likely to become a major problem, with emerging market economies likely to be impacted more severely than developed nations.

So, with those unappetizing prospects in store, let us turn our attention to this morning’s markets. As I mentioned, risk is clearly under pressure and that has manifest itself in the foreign exchange markets as modest dollar strength. In the G10 space, NZD is the laggard, falling 0.9% after the RBNZ, while leaving policy on hold, promised to do more to support the economy (ease further via QE) if necessary. Apparently, the market believes it will be necessary, hence the kiwi’s weakness. But away from that, the dollar’s strength has been far more muted, with gains on the order of 0.2%-0.3% against the higher beta currencies (SEK, AUD and CAD) while the euro, yen and pound are virtually unchanged on the day.

In the EMG bloc, it has been a tale of two sessions with APAC currencies mostly gaining overnight led by KRW (+0.8%), which seemed to be responding to yesterday’s news of sunshine, lollipops and roses modestly improving economic data leading toward an end to the global recession. Alas, all those who bought KRW and its brethren APAC currencies will be feeling a bit less comfited now that the trade war appears to be heating up again. This is made evident by the fact that the CE4 currencies are all lower this morning, led by HUF (-0.6%) and CZK (-0.4%). In no uncertain terms, increased trade tensions between the US and Europe will be bad for that entire bloc of economies, so weaker currencies make a great deal of sense. As to LATAM, they too are under pressure, with MXN (-0.5%) the only one open right now, but all indications for further weakness amid the combination of the spreading virus and the trade tensions.

On the data front, we did see German IFO data print mildly better than expected, notably the Expectations number which rose to 91.4 from last month’s reading of 80.1. But for context, it is important to understand that prior to the onset of Covid-19, these readings were routinely between 105 and 110, so we are still a long way from ‘normal’. The euro has not responded to the data, although the trade story is likely far more important right now.

In the US we have no data of note today, and just two Fed speakers, Chicago’s Evans and St Louis’ Bullard. However, as I have pointed out in the recent past, every Fed speaker says the same thing; the current situation is unprecedented and awful but the future is likely to see a sharp rebound and in the meantime, the Fed will continue to expand their balance sheet and add monetary support to the economy.

And that’s really all there is today. US futures are pointing lower, on the order of 0.75% as I type, so it seems to be a question of watching and waiting. Retail equity investors continue to pile into the stock market driving it higher, so based on recent history, they will see the current decline as another opportunity to buy. I see no reason for the dollar to strengthen much further barring yet another trade announcement from the White House, and if my suspicions about the stock market rebounding are correct, a weaker dollar by the end of the day is likely in store.

Good luck and stay safe
Adf

 

It’s Over

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“It’s over”, Navarro replied
When asked if the trade deal had died
The stock market’s dump
Forced President Trump
To tweet the deal’s still verified

What we learned last night is that the market is still highly focused on the trade situation between the US and China. Peter Navarro, the Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, was interviewed and when asked if, given all the issues that have been ongoing between the two countries, the trade deal was over, he replied, “it’s over, yes.” The market response was swift, with US equity futures plummeting nearly 2% in minutes, with similar price action seen in Tokyo and Sydney, before the president jumped on Twitter to explain that the deal was “fully intact.”

One possible lesson to be gleaned from this story is that the market has clearly moved on from the coronavirus, per se, and instead is now focusing on the ramifications of all the virus has already wrought. The latest forecasts from the OECD show trade volumes are expected to plummet by between 10% and 15% this year, although are expected to rebound sharply in 2021. The key is that infection counts and fatality rates are no longer market drivers. Instead, we are back to economic data points.

Arguably, this is a much better scenario for investors as these variables have been studied far more extensively with their impact on economic activity reasonably well understood. It is with this in mind that I would humbly suggest we have moved into a new phase of the Covid impact on the world; from fear, initially, to panicked government response, and now on to economic fallout. Its not that the economic impact was unimportant before, but it came as an afterthought to the human impact. Now, despite the seeming resurgence in infections in many spots around the world, at least from the global market’s perspective, we are back to trade data and economic stories.

This was also made evident by all the talk regarding today’s preliminary PMI data out of Europe, which showed French numbers above 50 and the Eurozone, as a whole, back to a 47.5 reading on the Composite index. However, this strikes me as a significant misunderstanding of what this data describes. Remember, the PMI question is, are things better, worse or the same as last month? Now, while April was the nadir of depression-like economic activity, last month represented the second worst set of numbers recorded amidst global shutdowns across many industries. It is not a great stretch to believe that this month is better than last. But this does not indicate in any manner that the economy is back to any semblance of normal. After all, if we were back to normal, would we all still be working from home and wearing masks everywhere? So yes, things are better than the worst readings from April and May, but as we will learn when the hard data arrives, the economic situation remains dire worldwide.

But while the economic numbers may be awful, that has not stopped investors traders Robinhooders from taking the bull by the horns and pouring more energy into driving stocks higher still. Of course, they are goaded on by the President, but they seem to have plenty of determination on their own. Here’s an interesting tidbit, the market cap of the three largest companies, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon now represents more than 20% of US GDP! To many, that seems a tad excessive, and will be pointed to, after prices correct, as one of the greatest excesses created in this market.

And today is no different, with the risk bit in their teeth, equity markets are once again trading higher across the board. Once the little trade hiccup had passed, buyers came out of the woodwork and we saw Asia (Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng +1.6%, Shanghai +0.2%) and Europe (DAX +2.7%, CAC +1.6%, FTSE 100 +1.2%) all steam higher. US futures are also pointing in that direction, currently up between 0.6% and 0.8%. Treasury yields are edging higher as haven assets continue to lose their allure, with 10-year Treasury yields up another basis point and 2bp rises seen throughout European markets. Interestingly, there is one haven that is performing well today, gold, which is up just 0.15% this morning, but has rallied more than 5% in the past two weeks and is back to levels not seen since 2012.

Of course, the gold explanation is likely to reside in the dollar, which in a more typical risk-on environment like we are currently experiencing, is sliding with gusto. Yesterday’s weakness has continued today with most G10 currencies firmer led by NOK (+0.9%) and SEK (+0.75%) on the back of oil’s ongoing rebound and general optimism about future growth. It should be no surprise that the yen has declined again, but its 0.1% fall is hardly earth shattering. Of more interest is the pound (-0.3%) which after an early surge on the back of the UK PMI data (Mfg 50.1), has given it all back and then some as talk of the UK economy faring worse than either the US or Europe is making the rounds.

In the EMG bloc, the dollar’s weakness is broad-based with MXN and KRW (+0.6% each) leading the way but INR an PLN (+0.5% each) close behind. As can be seen, there is no one geographic area either leading or lagging which is simply indicative of the fact that this is a dollar story, not a currency one.

On the data front in the US, while we also get the PMI data, it has never been seen as quite as important as the ISM data due next week. However, expectations are for a 50.0 reading in the Manufacturing and 48.0 in the Services indices. We also see New Home Sales (exp 640K) which follow yesterday’s disastrous Existing Home Sales data (3.91M, exp 4.09M and the worst print since 2010 right after the GFC.) We hear from another Fed speaker today, James Bullard the dove, but I have to admit that Chairman Powell has everybody on the FOMC singing from the same hymnal, so don’t expect any surprises there.

Instead, today is very clearly risk-on implying that the dollar ought to continue to trade a bit lower. My hypothesis about the dollar leading stocks last week has clearly come a cropper, and we are, instead, back to the way things were. Risk on means a weaker dollar and vice versa.

Good luck and stay safe
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Tremors of Dread

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This weekend we learned nothing new
‘Bout what central bankers will do
As they look ahead
With tremors of dread
That QE’s a major miscue

There is a bit of a conundrum developing as headlines shout about a surge in new cases of the coronavirus at the same time that countries around the world continue to reopen from their previous lockdowns. It has become increasingly apparent that governments everywhere have determined that the economic damage of the shutdown in response to Covid now outweighs the human cost of further fatalities from the disease. Of course, three months on from when the epidemic really began to rage in the West, there is also a much better understanding of who is most vulnerable and how to maintain higher levels of safe behavior, notably social distancing and wearing masks. And so, while there are still extremely vocal views on both sides of the argument about the wisdom of reopening, it is very clear economies are going to reopen.

Meanwhile, central banks continue to bask in the glow of broadly positive press that their actions have been instrumental in propping up the stock market preventing an even greater contraction of economic activity than what has actually played out. The constant refrain from every central bank speaker has been that cutting rates and expanding their balance sheets has been very effective. Oh, they are also prepared to do even more of both if they deem such action necessary because it turns out it wasn’t effective.

However, despite these encomiums about central bank perspicacity, investors find themselves at a crossroads these days. Risk assets continue to perform extremely well overall, with stocks having recouped most of their losses from March, but haven assets continue to demonstrate significant concern over the future as long-term government bond yields continue to point to near-recessionary economic activity over the medium and long term. At the end of the day, however, I think the only universal truth is that the global economy, and certainly financial markets, have become addicted to QE, and the central banks are not about to stop providing that liquidity no matter what else happens.

On this subject, this morning we had two very different visions espoused, with BOE Governor Bailey explaining that when things get better, QT will be the first response, not a raising of rates. Of course, we all remember the “paint drying” effect of QT in the US in 2018, and how it turns out removing that liquidity is really hard without causing a financial earthquake. At the same time, the ECB’s Madame Lagarde and her minions have been enthusiastically describing just how proportionate their QE purchases have been in response to the German Constitutional Court ruling from last month. Frankly, it would be easy for the ECB to point out the proportionality of buying more Italian debt given there is much more Italian debt than any other type in the EU. But I don’t think that was the German court’s viewpoint. At any rate, there is no reason to expect anything but ongoing QE for the foreseeable future. In fact, the only thing that can stop it is a significant uptick in measured inflation, but that has not yet occurred, nor does it seem likely in the next couple of quarters. So, the presses will continue to roll.

With this as background, a turn to the markets shows a fairly benign session overall. Equity market in Asia were very modestly lower (Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Shanghai flat) while European markets are also a touch softer (DAX -0.1%, CAC -0.2%, FTSE 100 flat) although US futures are pointing higher, with all three indices up about 0.75% as I type. Meanwhile, bond markets are also showing muted price action, although the tendency is toward slightly lower yields as Treasuries have decline 1bp and Bunds 2bps. While the direction here is consistent with a risk off session, the very slight magnitude of the moves makes it less convincing.

As to the dollar, it is definitely on its back foot this morning, falling against most G10 and many EMG currencies. Kiwi is atop the leaderboard this morning, rallying 0.6% with Aussie just behind at 0.5%, as both currencies recoup a bit of the past two week’s losses. In fact, that seems to be the story behind most of the G10 today, we are seeing a rebound from the dollar’s last two weeks of strength. The only exception is the yen, which is essentially unchanged, after its own solid recent performance, and NOK, which has edged lower by 0.15% on the back of a little oil price weakness.

In the EMG bloc, the picture is a bit more mixed with APAC currencies having suffered last night, led by KRW (-0.5%) as tensions with the North increase, and IDR (-0.35%) as the market demonstrated some concern over the future trajectory of growth and interest rates there. On the positive side, it is the CE4 that is showing the best gains today with PLN (+0.8%) far and away the best performer after posting a much better than expected Retail Sales number of +14.5%, which prompted the government to highlight the opportunity for a v-shaped recovery.

Looking ahead to data this week, nothing jumps out as likely to have a big impact.

Today Existing Home Sales 4.09M
Tuesday PMI Manufacturing 50.8
  PMI Services 48.0
  New Home Sales 635K
Thursday Initial Claims 1.35M
  Continuing Claims 19.85M
  Durable Goods 10.9%
  -ex transport 2.3%
  GDP Q1 -5.0%
Friday Personal Income -6.0%
  Personal Spending 8.8%
  Core PCE 0.0% (0.9% Y/Y)
  Michigan Sentiment 79.0

Source: Bloomberg

The thing about the PMI data is that interpretation of the data is more difficult these days as a rebound from depression levels may not be indicative of real strength, rather just less weakness. In fact, the bigger concern for policymakers these days is that the Initial Claims data is not declining very rapidly. After that huge spike in March, we have seen a substantial decline, but the pace of that decline has slowed alarmingly. It seems that we may be witnessing a second wave of layoffs as companies re-evaluate just how many employees they need to operate effectively, especially in a much slower growth environment. And remember, if employment doesn’t rebound more sharply, the US economy, which is 70% consumption based, is going to be in for a much longer period of slow or negative growth. I assure you that is not the scenario currently priced into the equity markets, so beware.

As to the dollar today, recent price activity has not been consistent with the historic risk appetite, and it is not clear to me which is leading which, stocks leading the dollar or vice versa. For now, it appears that the day is pointing to maintaining the overnight weakness, but I see no reason for this to extend in any major way.

Good luck and stay safe
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Sand on the Beach

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The central bank known as the Fed
Injected more funds, it is said
Than sand on the beach
While they did beseech
The banks, all that money to spread

But lately the numbers have shown
Liquidity, less, they condone
Thus traders have bid
For dollars, not quid
Nor euros in every time zone

A funny thing seems to be happening in markets lately, which first became evident when the dollar decoupled from equity markets a few days ago. It seemed odd that the dollar managed to rally despite continued strength in equity markets as the traditional risk-on stance was buy stocks, sell bonds, dollars and the yen. But lately, we are seeing stock prices continue higher, albeit with a bit tougher sledding, while the dollar has seemingly forged a bottom, at least on the charts.

The first lesson from this is that markets are remarkably capable at sussing out changes in underlying fundamentals, certainly far more capable than individuals. But of far more importance, at least with respect to understanding what is happening in the FX market, is that dollar liquidity, something the Fed has been proffering by the trillion over the past three months, is starting to, ever so slightly, tighten. This is evident in the fact that the Fed’s balance sheet actually shrunk this week, to “only” $7.14 trillion from last week’s $7.22 trillion. While this represents just a 1% shrinkage, and seemingly wouldn’t have that big an impact, it is actually quite a major change in the market.

Think back to the period in March when the worst seemed upon us, equity markets were bottoming, and central banks were panicking. The dollar was exploding higher at that time as both companies and countries around the world suddenly found their revenue streams drying up and their ability to service and repay their trillions of dollars of outstanding debt severely impaired. That was the genesis of the Fed’s dollar swap lines to other central banks, as Chairman Jay wanted to insure that other countries would have temporary access to those needed dollars. At that time, we also saw the basis swap bottom out, as borrowing dollars became prohibitively expensive, and in the end, many institutions decided to simply buy dollars on the foreign exchange markets as a means of securing their payments.

However, once those swap lines were in place, and the Fed announced all their programs and started growing the balance sheet by $75 billion/day, those apocalyptic fears ebbed, investors decided the end was not nigh and took those funds and bought stocks. This explains the massive rebound in the equity markets, as well as the dollar’s weakness that has been evident since late March. In fact, the dollar peaked and the stock market bottomed on the same day!

But as the recovery starts to gather some steam, with recent data showing that while things are still awful, they are not as bad as they were in April or early May, the Fed is reducing the frequency of their dollar swap operations to three times per week, rather than daily. They have reduced their QE purchases to less than $4 billion/day, and essentially, they are mopping up some of that excess liquidity. FX markets have figured this out, which is why the dollar has been pretty steadily strengthening for the past seven sessions. As long as the Fed continues down this path, I think we can expect the dollar to continue to perform.

And this is true regardless of what other central banks or nations do. For example, yesterday’s BOE action, increasing QE by £100 billion, was widely expected, but interestingly, is likely to be the last of their moves. First, it was not a unanimous vote as Chief Economist, Andy Haldane, voted for no change. The other thing is that expectations for future government Gilt issuance hover in the £70 billion range, which means that the BOE will have successfully monetized the entire amount of government issuance necessary to address the Covid crash. But regardless of whether this appears GBP bullish, it is dwarfed by the Fed activities. Positive Brexit news could not support the pound, and now it is starting to pick up steam to the downside. As I type, it is lower by 0.3% on the day which follows yesterday’s greater than 1% decline and takes the move since its recent peak to more than 3.4%.

What about the euro, you may ask? Well, it too has been suffering as not only is the Fed beginning to withdraw some USD liquidity, but the ECB, via yesterday’s TLTRO loans has injected yet another €1.3 trillion into the market. While the single currency is essentially unchanged today, it is down 2.0% from its peak on the 10th of June. And this pattern has repeated itself across all currencies, both G10 and EMG. Except, of course, for the yen, which has rallied a bit more than 1% since that same day.

Of course, in the emerging markets, the movement has been a bit more exciting as MXN has fallen more than 5.25% since that day and BRL nearly 10%. But the point is, this pattern is unlikely to stop until the Fed stops withdrawing liquidity from the markets. Since they clearly take their cues from the equity markets, as long as stocks continue to rally, so will the dollar right now. Of course, if stocks turn tail, the dollar is likely to rally even harder right up until the Fed blinks and starts to turn on the taps again. But for now, this is a dollar story, and one where central bank activity is the primary driver.

I apologize for the rather long-winded start but given the lack of interesting idiosyncratic stories in the market today, I thought it was a good time for the analysis. Turning to today’s session, FX market movement has been generally quite muted with, if anything, a bias for modest dollar strength. In fact, across both blocs, no currency has moved more than 0.5%, a clear indication of a lack of new drivers. The liquidity story is a background feature, not headline news…at least not yet.

Other markets, too, have been quiet, with equity markets around the world very slightly firmer, bond markets very modestly softer (higher yields) and commodity markets generally in decent shape. On the data front, the only noteworthy release was UK Retail Sales, which rebounded 10.2% in May but were still lower by 9.8% Y/Y. This is the exact pattern we have seen in virtually every data point this month. As it happens, there are no US data points today, but we do hear from four Fed speakers, Rosengren, Quarles, Mester and the Chairman. However, they have not changed their tune since the meeting last week, and certainly there has been no data or other news which would have given them an impetus to do so.

The final interesting story is that China has apparently recommitted to honoring the phase one trade deal which means they will be buying a lot of soybeans pretty soon. The thing is, I doubt it is because of the trade deal as much as it is a comment on their harvest and the fact they need them. But the markets have largely ignored the story. In the end, at this point, all things continue to lead to a stronger dollar, so hedgers, take note.

Good luck, good weekend and stay safe
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Twiddling Their Thumbs

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Investors are twiddling their thumbs
Awaiting the next news that comes
The Old Lady’s meeting’s
Impact will be fleeting
And Jay’s finished flapping his gums

Which leads to the question at hand
Is risk on or has it been banned?
The one thing we know
Is growth’s awfully slow
Beware, markets could well crash land

Markets are taking a respite this morning with modest movement across all three major asset classes. While the Bank of England is on tap with their latest policy announcement, the market feels certain they will leave rates on hold, at 0.10%, and that they will increase their QE purchases by £100 billion, taking the total to £745 billion, in an effort to keep supplying liquidity to the economy. It is somewhat interesting that the story from earlier in the week regarding positive movement on Brexit had such a modest and short-term impact on the pound, which has actually begun to decline a bit more aggressively as I type. After peaking a week ago, the pound has ceded 2.5% from that top (-0.6% today). There is nothing in the recent UK data that would lead one to believe that the economy there is going to be improving faster than either the EU or the US, and with monetary policy at a similar level of ease on a relative basis, any rationale to buy pounds is fragile, at best. I continue to be concerned that the pound leads the way lower vs. the dollar, at least until the current sentiment changes. And while the BOE could possibly change that sentiment, I would estimate that given yesterday’s inflation reading (0.5%) and their inflation target (2.0%), they see a weaker pound as a distinct benefit. Meanwhile, remember the current central bank mantra, ease more than expected. If there is any surprise today, look for £150 billion of QE, which would merely add further urgency to selling pounds.

But aside from the BOE meeting, there is very little of interest to the markets. The ECB announced that their TLTRO III.4 program had a take-up of €1.31 trillion, within the expected range, as 742 banks in the Eurozone got paid 1.0% to borrow money from the ECB in order to on lend it to their clients. But while an interesting anecdote, it is not of sufficient interest to the market to respond. In fact, the euro sits virtually unchanged on the day this morning, waiting for its next important piece of news.

In the G10 space, the only other mover of note is NOK, which has rallied 0.5% on the back of two stories. First, oil prices have moved a bit higher, up slightly less than 1% this morning, which is clearly helping the krone. But perhaps more importantly, the Norgesbank met, left rates on hold at 0.00%, but explained that there was no reason for rates to decline further, once again taking NIRP off the table.

However, away from those two poles, there is very little of interest in the G10 currency space. As to the EMG space, it too is pretty dull today, with RUB the leading gainer, +0.55%, on the oil move and ZAR the leading decliner, -0.4%, amid rising concern over the spread of Covid there as the infection curve remains on a parabolic trajectory. Similar to the G10 space, there is not much of broad interest overall.

Equity markets have also “enjoyed” a mixed session, with Asian markets showing gainers, Shanghai +0.1%, and losers, Nikkei -0.25%, but nothing of significant size. In Europe, the news is broadly negative, but other than Spain’s IBEX (-1.0%) the losses are quite modest. And finally, US futures are mixed but all within 0.1% of yesterday’s closing prices.

Lastly, bond markets are generally firmer, with yields falling slightly as 10-year Treasuries have decline 3 basis points on the session, broadly in line with what we are seeing in European government bond markets. Arguably, we should see the PIGS bonds perform well as that TLTRO money finds its way into the highest yielding assets available.

Perhaps we can take this pause in the markets as a time to reflect on all we have learned lately and try to determine potential outcomes going forward. From a fundamental perspective, the evidence points to April as the nadir of economic activity, which given the widespread shutdowns across the US and Europe, should be no surprise. Q2 GDP data is going to be horrific everywhere, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow number currently targeting -45.5%. But given the fact that economies on both sides of the Atlantic are reopening, Q3 will certainly show a significant rebound, perhaps even the same percentage gain. Alas, a 45% decline followed by a 45% rebound still leaves the economy more than 20% lower than it was prior to the decline. And that, my friends, is a humongous growth gap! So, while we will almost certainly see a sharp rebound, even the Fed doesn’t anticipate a recovery of economic activity to 2019 levels until 2022. Net, the economic picture remains one of concern.

On the fiscal policy front, the US story remains one where future stimulus is uncertain and likely will not be nearly as large as the $2.2 trillion CARES act, although the Senate is currently thinking of $1 trillion. In Europe, the mooted €750 billion EU program that would be funded by joint taxation and EU bond issuance, is still not completed and is still drawing much concern from the frugal four (Austria, Sweden, the Netherlands and Denmark). And besides, that amount is a shadow of what is likely necessary. Yes, we have seen Germany enact their own stimulus, as has France, Spain and Italy, but net, it still pales in comparison to what the US has done. Other major nations continue to add to the pie, with both China and Japan adding fiscal stimulus, but in the end, what needs to occur is for businesses around the world to get back to some semblance of previous activity levels.

And yet, investors have snapped up risk assets aggressively over the past several months. The value in an equity is not in the ability to sell it higher than you bought it, but in the future stream of earnings and cashflows the company produces. The multiple that investors are willing to pay for that future stream is a key determinant of long-term equity market returns. It is this reason that there are many who are concerned about the strength of the stock market rebound despite the destruction of economic activity. This conundrum remains, in my view, the biggest risk in markets right now and while timing is always uncertain, provides the potential for a significant repricing of risk. In that event, I would expect that traditional haven assets would significantly outperform, including the dollar, so hedgers need to stay nimble.

A quick look at this morning’s data shows Initial Claims (exp 1.29M), Continuing Claims (19.85M), Philly Fed (-21.4) and Leading Indicators (+2.4%). The claims data remains the key short-term variable that markets are watching, although it appears that economists have gotten their models attuned to the current reality as the last several prints have been extremely close to expectations.

Overall, until something surprising arises, it feels like the bulls remain in control, so risk is likely to perform well. Beware the disconnect, though, between the dollar and the stock market, as that may well be a harbinger of that repricing on the horizon.

Good luck and stay safe
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Making More Hay

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The Chairman explained yesterday
That more help would be on the way
If things turned out worse
Thus he’s not averse
To Congress soon making more hay

Chairman Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee yesterday and continued to proffer the message that while the worst may be behind us, there is still a long way to go before the recovery is complete. He continued to highlight the job losses, especially in minority communities, and how the Fed will not rest until they have been able to foster sufficient economic growth to enable unemployment to fall back to where it was prior to the onset of the Covid crisis. He maintains, as does the entire FOMC, that there are still plenty of additional things the Fed can do to support the economy, if necessary, but that he hopes they don’t have to take further measures. He also agreed that further fiscal stimulus might still be appropriate, although he wouldn’t actually use those words in his effort to maintain the fiction that the Fed is independent of the rest of the government. (They’re not in case you were wondering.) In other words, same old, same old.

The market’s response to the Chairman’s testimony was actually somewhat mixed. Equity prices continue to overperform, although they did retreat from their intraday highs by the close, but the dollar, despite what was clearly an increasing risk appetite, reversed early weakness and strengthened further. Initially, that dollar strength was attributed to a blow-out Retail Sales number, +17.7%, but that piece of the rally faded in minutes. However, as the day progressed, dollar buyers were in evidence as the greenback ignored traditional sell signals and continued to forge a bottom.

Recently, there seems to have been an increase in discussion about the dollar’s imminent decline and the end of its days as the global reserve currency. Economists point to the massive current account deficit, the debasement by the Fed as it monetizes debt and the concern that the current administration will not embrace previous global norms. My rebuttal of this is simple: what would replace the dollar as the global monetary asset that would be universally accepted and trusted to maintain some semblance of its value? The answer is, there is nothing at this time, that could possible do the job. The euro? Hah! Not only is it still dealing with existential issues, but the fact that there is no European fiscal policy will necessarily result in missing support when needed. The renminbi? Hah! The idea that the free world would rely on a currency controlled by the largest communist regime is laughable. The Swiss franc? Too small. Bitcoin? Hahahahah! ‘Nuff said. Gold? Those who are calling the end of the dollar’s importance in the world are not the same people calling for a return to the gold standard. In fact, the views of those two groups are diametrically opposed. For now, the dollar remains the only viable candidate for the role, and that is likely to remain the case for a very long time. As such, while it will definitely rise and fall over short- and medium-term windows, do not believe the idea of a coming dollar collapse.

Meanwhile, ‘cross the pond in the land
Where Boris is still in command
Inflation is sinking
While Bailey is thinking
He ought, the B/S, to expand

Turning to more immediate market concerns, UK data this morning showed CPI falling to 0.5% Y/Y, well below the BOE’s target of 2.0%. With the BOE on tap for tomorrow, the market feels quite confident that Governor Bailey will be increasing QE purchases by £100 billion, taking the total to £745 billion, or slightly more than one-third of the UK economy. The thing is, it is not clear that QE lifts prices of anything other than stocks. I understand that central banks are limited by monetary tools, but if we have learned anything since the GFC in 2008-09, it is that monetary tools are not very effective when addressing the real economy. There is no evidence that this time will be different in the UK than it has been everywhere else in the world forever. The pound, however, has suffered in the wake of the current UK combination of events. So rapidly declining inflation along with expectations of further monetary policy ease have been more than enough to offset yesterday’s positive Brexit comments explaining that both sides believe a deal is possible. Perhaps the question we ought to be asking is, even if hard Brexit is avoided, should the pound really rally that much? My view remains that while a hard Brexit would definitely be a huge negative, the pound has enough troubles on its own to avoid rising significantly from current levels. I still cannot make a case for 1.30, not in the current situation.

As to the rest of the FX market, it is having a mixed session today, with both gainers and losers, although no very large movers in either direction. For instance, the best G10 performer today is NOK, which has rallied just 0.3% despite oil’s lackluster performance today. Meanwhile, the worst performer is the euro, which has fallen 0.2%. The point is, movement like this does not need a specific explanation, and is simply a product of position adjustments over time.

Emerging market currency activity has been no different, really, with MXN the best performer (you don’t hear that much) but having rallied just 0.35%. the most positive story I’ve seen was that the Mexican president, AMLO, has promised to try to work more closely with the business community there to help address the still raging virus outbreak. On the downside, KRW, yesterday’s best performer, is today’s worst, falling 0.55%. This seems to be a response to the increasingly aggressive rhetoric from the North, who is now set to deploy troops to the border, scrapping previous pledges to maintain a demilitarized zone between the nations. However, it would be wrong not to mention yesterday’s BRL price action, where the real fell 1.7%, taking its decline over the past week to more than 5.1%. The situation on the ground there seems to be deteriorating rapidly as the coronavirus is spreading rapidly, more than 37K new cases were reported yesterday, and investors are taking note.

On the data front this morning, we see Housing Starts (exp 1100K) and Building Permits (1245K), neither of which seems likely to be a market mover. The Chairman testifies before the House today, but it is only the Q&A that will be different, as his speech is canned. We also hear from the Uber-hawk, Loretta Mester, but these days, even she is on board for all the easing that is ongoing, so don’t look for anything new there.

Ultimately, I continue to look at the price action and feel the dollar is finding its footing, regardless of the risk attitude. Don’t be too greedy if you are a receivables hedger, there is every chance for the dollar to strengthen further from here.

Good luck and stay safe
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