Why People Screech

Posted on by 
Investors enamored with risk
Are active, some might e’en say brisk
In buying up stocks
In very large blocks
And feeling, right now, very frisk-y

But this simply highlights the breach
Twixt markets and why people screech
The ‘conomy’s ailing
And policy’s failing
To help, so for more, they beseech

If you ever wanted to see the definition of the K-shaped economy, there is no more accurate representation than the fact that equity markets are making all-time highs at the same time Socialists are winning elections.  Now, I don’t know many voters in Michigan, but I’m pretty sure the ones who have an equity portfolio are not voting for the candidate who wants to abolish the Senate, the Supreme court and the Presidency as well as the police and the Department of War.  But here we are, with both the DJIA and the S&P 500 trading to another new all-time high yesterday, although as you can see in the chart below, the NASDAQ is still a few percentage points away from its recent highs and the DSA candidate poised to win the Democratic primary election for US Senator in Michigan.  Strange times indeed.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

While there is no doubt that earnings continue to be quite strong, and that is the proximate cause for the equity market rally, earnings are a function of economic activity, so it is highly unlikely they would be so strong without underlying economic strength.  The upshot is that we continue to ‘reap’ the benefits of the original Portfolio Balance channel defined by then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke as he began the process of inflating the Fed’s balance sheet and all that liquidity spilled into financial markets rather than the real economy.  At this point, we have seen money moving back toward production (I saw that a new steel mill was being built in California, the first new mill there in over 50 years) but it remains the case that more money flows to markets than to production. And that, I would argue, is the crux of the dichotomy that we are currently observing, fabulous wealth being created but an extremely uneven distribution.

Can it, or will it change?  It took a long time to create the problem, and I fear it will take a long time to unwind it, although I believe that politicians on both sides of the aisle recognize the problem.  And this is the classic case where they have very different solutions.  Arguably, the fate of the nation rests on which solutions are implemented, reshoring American industrial capacity, or a state takeover of the means of production and redistribution.  You know which side I’m hoping wins out.

But in the meantime, equity markets here are strong as is economic activity, at least as measured by the government, and that has been sufficient to drive market behavior.  And that, my friends, is why Wall Street is happy.  Well, that and the following headline:

Wall Street bankers’ bonuses set for significant rise

With that in mind, let’s see how markets are behaving.  That US strength was followed almost universally in Asia with every major market rallying except Singapore (-0.55%) and Thailand (-0.5%).  Otherwise, the gains ranged from +3.7% (Tokyo and Korea) down to +0.25% (HK) with more strong gains above 1.0% than below that level.  Tech stocks remain the story and that has been helped along by the latest Hormuz story that indicates a deal is coming soon.  Frankly, writing about Hormuz at this point seems absurd given the numerous claims and counterclaims with very little ability for most of us to discern truth from propaganda.

The interesting thing about a tech-led rally is how completely it ignores European bourses with France, Germany and the UK all unchanged on the day, although Spain has managed a modest gain of 0.4%.  But I think that gain is a function of the better-than-expected PMI Services number from Spain, 58.3, which is its highest reading in more than 3 years while the rest of Europe managed to basically meet expectations at lower levels.  As to US futures, as we await the ISM Services data today (exp 54.5) you will not be surprised that they are higher at this hour (7:45).

Perhaps the bigger story has been bond yields as they have slipped -13bps in the past two sessions and are down -1bp this morning as per the chart below.  European sovereign yields have also backed off a bit although this morning they are basically unchanged while JGB yields (-3bps) continue to trade near their recent multi-decade highs.  So far, the US-Japanese joint yen intervention has not been enough to change that story.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

In the commodity space, it is the metals markets that are the most interesting this morning with gold (+2.7%) and silver (+4.1%) leading the way as hopes for the Hormuz reopening and the end of the Iran conflict percolate.  Either that or people have begun to realize that the demand for metals remains impervious to other stories.  Now, I am not a market technician, but frankly, the fact that the gold price is breaking above its 50-day moving average as per the below chart, and the general price action is telling me that we have put in a bottom and seem poised to break higher.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Copper (+0.4%) continues to trade near its all-time highs and I suspect a move higher in gold and silver will take it along for the ride.  As to oil (+0.4%), the fact remains it is lower by -10.0% this week, which has been a key driver of sentiment in markets overall.

Finally, the dollar is a bit softer this morning, but not too much.  The euro and pound are both firmer by 0.2% while the yen is little changed along with CHF, CAD and AUD.  NZD (-0.4%) is an outlier after weaker than expected jobs data undermined the idea of another rate hike by the RBNZ.  In the EMG bloc, most currencies are a bit stronger as well, 0.1% to 0.3% or so with KRW (+0.4%) and CLP (+0.8%) the outliers, with the former continuing its recent trend as you can see from the chart below, while the latter is benefitting from the overall strength of copper.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

And that’s really it for the day.  In addition to the ISM data, we do see EIA oil inventories later this morning and we get the Treasury Refunding Announcement at 8:30, although there is no expectation for a massive change in the current issuance schedule.  Late this afternoon, the central bank of Brazil is expected to cut the SELIC rate by 25bps to 14.0%, which is arguably why BRL has been such a strong performer all year, very high real interest rates.

As to the dollar writ large, it is on its heels right now and I don’t think Secretary Bessent minds that very much.  Using the DXY as the proxy, do not be surprised to see it trade to 97 by the end of summer.

Good luck

Adf

Smart or Insane

Posted on by 
While pundits all like to complain
About everything, smart or insane
When stock markets rise
It’s no real surprise
That few people care what they’re sayin’

As penance for yesterday’s overly long diatribe, I will keep this morning’s much shorter, especially since there is not nearly so much interesting to discuss.  There are still many discussions on the whys and wherefores of the US joining with Japan in intervening in the FX markets, with a pretty even mix of those saying it won’t matter and those saying it is a game changer.  As you can see from the chart below, this morning the beleaguered JPY (-0.45%) is slipping a little, but hardly enough to matter in the context of last week’s gains.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Of course, we won’t really know how effective this bout of intervention has been for at least a few weeks/months, as the history, clearly shown on the chart is a big move higher followed by a gradual depreciation in the yen.  Will that play out again?  My suspicion is that absent a policy change by the BOJ (i.e. a more aggressive rate hike schedule) or the Japanese government (i.e. less fiscal stimulus) the answer is no.  This is especially true if the Fed raises rates, although I still do not believe that is coming soon.  

However, it is important to remember that the Fed funds futures market is confident of a hike by October, with a two-thirds probability of one next month as per the below cmegroup.com table.

Turning to the other major discussion from yesterday, the ongoing feedback/blowback from the Fed’s no movement, and more importantly from Warsh’s behavior during the press conference, that too remains a topic of discussion with pundits on both sides adamant that he was either right or wrong on both measures.  The only thing I am sure about is that he doesn’t care much about what the pundits are saying.  Rather, he is very likely focusing on getting his points across to the rest of the committee, and that will be a tough job.

In 2025, FOMC members gave, on average, one speech a day which added to the forward guidance which was a key tool in their toolbox.  You know I often railed against the ongoing verbal diarrhea from these folks as from the best I could tell, nothing said was ever designed to sway opinion, merely to burnish each speaker’s credentials.  And they clearly loved the quasi fame that came with it.  In fact, I suspect it is that very quasi fame the committee is most reluctant to cede.  Chairman Warsh has his work cut out for him.

As to today’s new stories, there are none, at least none of note.  There are more conflicting comments from President Trump and the Iranians about negotiations or not.  Yesterday’s ISM data was quite positive, coming in at 55.6 vs 54.0 expected, just another indication that the US economy continues to tick along quite nicely.  After that, the news heads towards the political with several key primary elections to be held today with DSA candidates picked to win and run in the general elections in November.

But what has everybody happy is the fact that equity markets are showing strength once again.  I read that of the S&P companies that have already reported, 85% have beaten estimates, a much higher than normal percentage (76% is the norm), and another positive for market bulls.  

So, let’s take a look at how markets behaved overnight with that theme.  The strong US performance was followed by a more mixed session in Asia, although there were more gainers (Tokyo, China, Korea, Australia, Indonesia, New Zealand) than laggards (HK, India, Philippines).  The tech story remains the major story since the oil story has become so confusing on a daily basis, I feel like most investors have moved on.  Meanwhile, in Europe, it is a broadly positive session as well led by Germany (+0.6%) and the UK (+0.35%) while France (+0.1%) and Spain (0.0%) are not quite as happy.  Arguably, the biggest news in Europe continues to be the unprecedented flood of illegal immigrants into Ceuta, Spain and the punditocracy is actively expressing their opinions on the issue, although whether there is a direct impact on the equity market in Madrid is unclear.  Lastly, US futures at this hour (7:20), are all pointing higher again as the market awaits earnings from SpaceX this afternoon after the close.

In the bond market, there continues to be a great deal of garment rending and teeth gnashing amongst the financial illuminati as yields hold the bulk of their recent gains.  This morning Treasury yields have backed up 1bp after yesterday’s -5bp decline, although European sovereign yields are generally lower by -1bp this morning.  As of now, there is no answer to the question of is the bond market focused on inflation or excess issuance although it could well be a little of both.

Remember when oil (-0.8%) was the only market that mattered, and all other trading looked there first.  We heard stories about $200/bbl coming soon and tank bottoms as reserves emptied and a growing concern about future economic activity.  Well, that never really happened.  As I type, WTI is back below $80/bbl and I particularly like this chart that calculates the mean price over the past 6 months ($86/bbl) and shows no trend whatsoever.  

Source: tradingeconomics.com

To me, this implies there is a new equilibrium although I suspect that when the hostilities cease, and I believe they will at some point this year, we will see sharply lower prices for crude and products.  As to metals markets, they remain relatively uninteresting with modest gains today (Au +0.2%, Ag +2.4%, Cu +1.7%).

Finally, in the FX markets, away from the yen the dollar is under a bit of pressure this morning.  First, for all of you who follow the DXY and were excited by the ostensible breakout above 100.50, as you can see in the below chart, that story appears to have ended for now.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

But away from the yen this morning, the rest of the G10 have all shown modest gains led by AUD (+0.5%) after some positive household spending data.  Otherwise, 0.1% to 0.2% is the state of the day.  In the EMG bloc, ZAR (+0.4%) is the leader of the pack on the combination of softer oil prices and stronger metals prices.  Too, BRL (+0.25%) and MXN (+0.25%) seem to be benefitting on the same basis.  Otherwise, it’s hard to get excited here.  Perhaps another bout of intervention will perk things up, but I doubt that will happen soon.

On the data front, there’s quite a bit to be released this week culminating in the Friday NFP report.

TodayTrade Balance-$73.0B
 JOLTs Job Openings7.4M
 Factory Orders0.2%
 -ex Transport0.5%
WednesdayASP Employment70K
 ISM Services54.5
ThursdayInitial Claims202K
 Continuing Claims1790K
 Nonfarm Productivity0.6%
 Unit Labor Costs2.1%
FridayNonfarm Payrolls80K
 Private Payrolls79K
 Manufacturing Payrolls4K
 Unemployment Rate4.2%
 Average Hourly Earnings0.3% (3.5% Y/Y)
 Average Weekly Hours34.3
 Participation Rate61.6%
 Consumer Credit$10.85B

Source: tradingeconomics.com

In addition, there are three Fed speakers, and I wonder (and am hopeful) that we hear less and less from them going forward.  Obviously, all eyes will be on the payrolls on Friday, and we can dive into that later in the week.  But today, it is hard to get excited about anything.

Good luck

Adf

Pundits and Bores

Posted on by 
The fallout from Warsh’s decision
To leave rates without a revision
Has opened the doors
For pundits and bores
With hawks and doves set for collision

For some, Warsh has failed from the start
As they felt a rate hike was smart
But others explain
That under his reign
It’s markets that play the main part

For a no action outcome by the Fed last week, it certainly is interesting how much digital ink has been spilled discussing the outcome of that meeting and, depending on which side of the argument you fall, whether it was the right move or an error.  You know I have been of the belief that there will be zero rate hikes this year and nothing has changed that opinion yet.

There is a great deal of conversation regarding the Fed’s credibility and how despite Warsh’s tough talk about achieving their 2% inflation goal at his first meeting, by doing nothing last week, he has trashed that credibility.  My first thought here is, given the Fed has failed in its key objective for more than 5 straight years on its own terms, it is difficult for me to accept they had a lot of credibility left to trash.  But my second thought is to listen to the Chairman’s words about allowing the market to do its job, and not simply watch the Fed, and I realize there are an awful lot of analysts and pundits who don’t know how to do that and therefore are extremely uncomfortable now.  As I wrote last week, these folks get paid a lot of money by Wall Street and now they have to earn it.  So perhaps that explains the ongoing diatribes.

Much has been made of the fact that between the June and July FOMC meetings, US Treasury yields rose substantially as you can see from the below chart.

Source” tradingeconomics.com

At the close on Friday, they had risen 34bps in the 30-year and 28bps in the 10-year), although this morning, with oil prices (-5.6%) falling on the back of a renewed diplomatic initiative in Iran, both of those bonds have seen yields back off by 5bps. 

Now, one of the things that Warsh specifically explained in the press conference was that the market had raised rates already, effectively doing the Fed’s job for them.  And here is the point of departure, I believe, regarding the punditry viewpoint and the Warsh viewpoint.  Warsh has been explicit in saying he wants the Fed’s footprint in the markets to shrink.  He wants market participants to, “play the ball, not the referee”.  However, the pundits claim that the only reason rates rose was in anticipation of the Fed hiking rates.  

So, let’s try a little thought experiment.  Assume there was no Fed, instead that money supply was mechanically increased by 2% per year and that all interest rates were determined by the market.  Do you believe that in this scenario, a government running consistent extremely large deficits would not drive interest rates higher than they otherwise would be, without a central bank to officially do so?  I know I do.  Is that any different than the market pushing yields higher because they are concerned with excess supply of Treasuries and other inflation concerns?  

The Fed has had a major, and in Warsh’s (and my) view, too large impact on markets for a long time, since Black Monday in 1987.  Change is hard and the punditry does not like the fact that they are going to have to actually think and pay attention to many variables in order to have a viable view on things, so they are all crying and claiming Warsh is making a huge mistake.  While not surprising, I think they are completely wrong.  

It is also important to understand that the current yields in the bond market are anything but ordinary. Below is a chart I created with FRED data and included the long-term average 10-year yield since 1962, which happens to be 5.81%, more than 100bps above current levels.  For a very long time, a good rule of thumb for the 10-year yield was it should be approximate the nominal GDP growth rate, but we have gone through such a long period of financial repression, that idea faded away.  Perhaps that is coming back into vogue, so at the long-term average, we could see 3.8% GDP growth and 2.0% inflation.  And even today, it could represent 2.7% GDP growth and 2.0% inflation.  I don’t think anybody would be unhappy with that outcome.

My understanding is the task forces will not be reporting until early next year.  At the same time, I am convinced that Mr Warsh is very serious about making significant changes at the Fed going forward, and I applaud that.  But it is going to require him to convince 18 other people who have been inculcated in a process that has proven to be a failure but offers comfort to those people because they know how it works.  Change is very hard, and this will be harder than most.  One last thing, the biggest change is going to be the balance sheet.  The Fed continues to buy T-bills and expand the balance sheet as they continue to seek to maintain “ample” reserves, so banks have liquidity.  I would not be surprised if when we hear from Chairman Warsh at the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of the month, he indicates the Fed will stop buying bills at the next meeting moving further down the path of change.

Surprising comments
Bessent admitted the Fed
Joined the Japanese

The following statement released by Japan’s MOF is quite a surprise, at least the fact that they admitted to the action, something that has rarely been the case in the past.  

Some have made the point that given Japan is the largest holder of Treasury securities in the world (other than the Fed) and that they would need to sell their Treasuries to fund intervention, this was the driving force.  Certainly, the US is not keen to have holders sell their bonds at this point.  As you can see in the chart below, this intervention has had a larger impact than the previous bouts which were solo Japanese efforts.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

At the dollar’s low, the yen appreciated about 5% in the past two sessions, certainly a very large move.  One of the other things that was interesting was that ostensibly, the Treasury sold EURJPY, not USDJPY.  Perhaps they had extra euros lying around they no longer wanted.  According to BOJ data, it appears the Japanese spent something like $33 billion on the intervention, but I have no indication as to the US effort.

Joint intervention is pretty rare, with the last time being in the wake of the earthquake/tsunami at Fukushima in 2011 when the yen strengthened dramatically.  But it also has a better track record than solo intervention, although absent significant fiscal changes, on both sides of this equation, I suspect that within a few months, the yen will weaken again.

Ok, I feel like that’s enough for one morning.  The oil story, as I mentioned, is that the President has called off the mooted weekend attacks and diplomacy is back on the table.  Interestingly, the metals markets are not as excited by that with gold (+0.15%), silver (+0.6%) and copper (+0.75%) all higher, but not by very much, especially given the size of the decline in crude prices.  And product prices (gasoline -3.4%, heating oil -3.0%) are also sharply lower.

As also mentioned above, bond yields have backed off with European sovereigns sliding far more than Treasuries, between -6bps (Germany, Netherlands) and -9bps (UK, Italy, Greece).  However, JGB yields (+3bps) did not get the memo although I suppose that has more to do with the belief that the BOJ is going to be forced to hike rates as part of the joint US-Japanese currency efforts.

As to the equity markets, after Friday’s US rally, the picture in Asia was mixed, despite the oil price decline, although for Japan, a stronger yen is often a problem for Japanese equities.  The worst performers were Korea (-5.1%), Tokyo (-0.9%) and China (-1.0%) while much of the rest of the region followed the US higher (HK +0.5%, India +0.7%, Taiwan +0.6%, Australia +0.5%) with the smaller exchanges mostly higher as well.

In Europe, things are generally bright with Germany (+1.4%), France (+1.3%) and Spain (+0.75%) all nicely higher despite (because of) modestly weaker PMI data although the UK (0.0%) has not been able to overcome its PMI weakness.  Now, in fairness to the UK, its 51.9 reading, while weaker than last month and forecast, is still about the best in Europe.  As to US futures, they are all in the green, led by the DJIA (+0.8%) at this hour (7:00).

Finally, the dollar is kind of confused overall.  The big winner today is KRW (+1.0%) although that trade has been ongoing for more than a month and is approaching an 8% gain over that period.  The yen (+0.4%) continues to climb, albeit less aggressively, although the other G10 currencies are generally under pressure (GBP -0.15%, AUD -0.3%, CAD -0.2%, NOK -0.6%).

However, I must mention something that Alyosha wrote this morning in Market Vibes that is worth considering; two of the major positions in markets were short bonds and short yen.  Joint intervention by the US and Japan to sell EURJPY has likely forced a lot of covering in both of those markets and it would not be surprising to see more activity like that and further short covering.  Japan is the largest holder of French bonds as well as Treasuries and could easily sell those without a peep from the US.  

Ok, I have gone way over my daily quota this morning, although there were a couple of really big, and complex stories to discuss.  On the data front, today brings ISM Manufacturing (exp 54.0) and I will delve into the rest of the week’s data, including Friday’s payroll report tomorrow.

Good luck

Adf

Dust in the Wind

Posted on by 
A line has been drawn
Is it steel reinforced? Or
Just dust in the wind?

Shortly after 9:30 yesterday morning, the BOJ entered the FX market aggressively selling dollars as you can see in the chart below.  While the amount sold is unknown at this time, it was likely pretty large, ~$10 billion – $15 billion would be my guess.  In addition to the sales, though, apparently the Fed called around the Street “checking rates”, although my understanding is the Treasury didn’t actually sell any dollars.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Regardless, the signal of an approved, if not joint, intervention is powerful and I expect that the market will take some time before pushing the dollar back higher again.  Now, one of the themes yesterday was that the BOJ would also raise interest rates at their meeting last night in a surprise move as a way to reinforce this action.  I believe if they had done so, it could have been quite effective and we would have seen another sharp leg lower, as well as an overall reduction in pressure on the yen.  But they did nothing with their base rate remaining at 1.0% and, as you can see from the chart, the drift has already begun for the yen to weaken once more.

As I have maintained throughout this process, absent policy changes of substance, and at this point in Japan that includes fiscal as well as monetary, pressure on the yen is very likely going to be the norm.  Of course, if the Fed really does begin to ease policy at some point, that will alter opinions and I imagine soften the dollar universally.  

The pundits are still really pissed
That Warsh, their concerns, has dismissed
Get ready to hear
That Doomsday is near
If Warsh keeps ignoring their gist

Since we seem to be in an interlude in the war in Iran and the Middle East, so oil markets remain quiet and there has been little news from the White House, the punditry has continued its focus on Fed Chair Warsh and all the things they hate that he is doing.  This is well summed up in this morning’s WSJ article titled, ”Kevin Warsh’s Honeymoon with the Bond Market Is Already Over”  interestingly, this was not written by Nick Timiraos, but rather by Sam Goldfarb, their bond market guy.  Personally, I think he is completely wrong, but the punditry is consistent in their desperate desire for Warsh to tell them what the Fed is going to do so they can report it and seem smart.

However, my read on the bond market response is quite different, especially when put in context with other markets, notably inflation markets.  The fact that the 2-year yield has backed off, and we have already seen a modest pull-back in the 10-year tells me that there is limited fear of rampant inflation.  While the pundits, and many other central bankers (see Lagarde, Christine) think that hiking rates into an energy price shock is the right move, it has historically been a key policy error.  And what we have learned from financial history is that it is NEVER different this time.  And the folks who trade inflation have breakevens (the difference between nominal Treasury yields and TIPS yields of the same maturity) trading at very ordinary levels of 2.27% in the 10-year and 2.22% in the 30-year.  I thought that Alexandru Stefan Goghiedid an excellent job of describing the situation in his Substack article this morning.

In the meantime, you know who else isn’t really worried about this?  Equity investors.  Broadly speaking, green is today’s color in that asset class, with some of the real movers not even shown in this Bloomberg Screenshot.  

For instance, the KOSPI rallied 17.9% last night after Amazon and Microsoft’s earnings got everybody reconvinced that the AI trade was not over.  This is the market that I had been highlighting as collapsing and it just did a major reversal.  Last night’s candle, on the right-hand side of the chart, is one of the largest you will ever see in a major equity market!

Source: finance.yahoo.com

So, we have made it through the major tech earnings releases and spirits are still high.  While the Fed funds futures markets are still pricing a two-thirds probability of a hike in September and the certainty of one by October, the recent cooler than expected CPI and PCE data will continue to give ammunition to remain on hold.  To me the real question is, will Chairman Warsh be able to convince the committee that reducing the balance sheet is the right thing to do (it is) as that will have a much stronger impact on inflation than raising rates into the energy price shock.

In an aside, lately I have been wondering if every Fed governor should be fired for ‘cause’.  After all, according to legal precedent, cause can mean:

  • Inefficiency – persistent inability or incompetence in performing the role’s administrative or official functions
  • Neglect of duty
  • Malfeasance in office

Now, I would not accuse them of the latter two, but let’s face it, they have completely failed in their official functions as evidence by the fact that even on their own terms of stable prices, it has been more than 5 years since they have achieved their goal.  That seems pretty inefficient or incompetent to me!

Ok, let’s run through the other markets.  Bond yields are higher by 1 tick around the world, and we have discussed them already.  JGB yields, have slipped -2bps, so maybe they are not as worried with the yen strength from yesterday.

Commodity markets are dull with oil (+1.5%) having rallied in the past hour but still hanging around the $85/bbl level with no new news on the war.  At the same time both gold (-1.2%) and silver (-2.0%) are under pressure this morning, although that doesn’t make a huge amount of sense to me given the dollar’s broad weakness.  Perhaps the fact that it is month end is driving flows there, but I am not close enough to those markets to know.

Finally, the dollar is softer, having fallen sharply yesterday although bouncing somewhat this morning.  As you can see in the DXY chart below, we are back within the 96.50/100.50 range that has prevailed for most of the past year and have traded below 100.00 several times yesterday and early this morning.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

To me, this is very interesting as FX traders seem to be taking different signals from the Fed than the short-term interest rate guys.  This does not feel like a market that is anticipating rate hikes in the US.  Now, historically, when it comes to opinion differences across markets, FX traders are the worst of the worst.  And, of course, I am an FX guy at heart, but I have a feeling they are correct here and I still see no rate hikes this year despite the Fed funds futures markets relative certainty.  So, right now, the dollar is broadly firmer by 0.3% across the board with the biggest outlier KRW (-1.35%) seeming to follow the KOSPI.

I think the really important thing to remember here is that the dollar has just not done very much, at least against the G10 currencies, for more than a year.  Certainly, LATAM currencies have performed well this year, but it remains difficult for me to look at the rest of the G10, a group with weak economic activity, and get excited about owning any of them.

On the data front, the PCE data was as expected to softer, but the real key yesterday was the GDP data which showed nominal GDP rose 7.9%, although the inflation adjusted number was just 1.5%.  But this is the very essence of running it hot, high nominal growth, which consisted of significant consumption and investment, while allowing inflation to run as well.  From a debt management perspective for the US, the debt/GDP ratio fell accordingly by about 1%.  While this trend remains higher, I expect we will see more of this type of outcome going forward.

As to today’s releases, Chicago PMI (ep 56.0) and Michigan Sentiment (54.0) are what we see, neither of which seems likely to matter to markets.  The equity bulls are back and that is going to be today’s story.  If those rallies fail, it will portend larger problems I believe, but my take is that is not going to happen.  I guess we shall see.

Good luck and good weekend

Adf

Sense of Foreboding

Posted on by 
Well, three little piggies said, whoa!
We think Fed funds rates are too low
But nine said, no way
We think they’re OK
And if hikes come, we should go slow

As well, pundit angst is exploding
Because they are now stuck decoding
The sparse words Warsh tenders
And so, story vendors
Now all have a sense of foreboding

It is truly remarkable to me how much angst was generated because Chairman Warsh refuses to offer any guidance whatsoever on what the Fed may do going forward.  The same people who have railed at the Fed for being the underlying cause of economic problems, are now furious that he is trying to change their operating process.  This tells me that much of that previous concern was theater as those same folks were either making a lot of money in the previous system or had a level of comfort that their positions were protected by the Fed put.

One of the biggest impacts the Fed has had in our society has been Ben Bernanke’s “portfolio-balance channel”, better known as trickle-down economics.  His idea that buying Treasuries and forcing investors out the risk curve was a major driver of the current wealth and income inequalities that exist in today’s K-shaped economy.  In fact, I would contend that we are seeing the results of that monetary experiment lately with the rise of the DSA in politics and the growing belief by many in the younger generations that they cannot get ahead regardless of their effort, so YOLO and socialism are a better fit.

The Fed is more than a century old and has had unchecked power during that entire period.  Paul Volcker was the last Fed chair to be able to ignore (or withstand) the politics in order to do the right thing and address inflation.  Everybody else has been captured by the organization.  My take is currently the other 18 members of the FOMC all despise Warsh because they all hate President Trump, and Warsh is Trump’s man.  Powell was Trump’s man too, but the Fed culture captured and converted him.  Their biggest problem is Bessent and Warsh are besties and so Warsh has political cover. But they won’t go down without a fight.

My strong view is that ending the ample reserves framework and shrinking the balance sheet is the best thing the Fed can do for the economy and to fight inflation.  It will take time, but that is clearly his goal.  We shall see if he’s successful.  But in the meantime, it appears that all the analysts who got paid a lot of money by Wall Street to do very little are now going to start having to earn their keep and think and figure out things on their own.   And that is a really good outcome.  As I continue to write, less certainty may bring more short-term volatility, but it will reduce the opportunity for excess leverage and reduce market fragility.  And that is something to be sought.

So, how did the market respond?  This chart from wolfstreet.com is annotated beautifully.

The equity market decided they didn’t like uncertainty and are growing increasingly scared there may not be a Fed put anymore.  And so, we saw weakness across the Americas yesterday with US and Canadian indices falling sharply into the close.  Is this the end of the world?  I don’t think so although you might be confused by reading some of the commentary. Overnight, though, things were more mixed with some laggards (China -1.1%, Korea -1.2%, Australia -0.8%, New Zealand -1.5%) and some gainers (Tokyo +0.7%, HK +0.2%, India +0.3%, Indonesia +1.6%).  The continued fighting in Iran (the US launched another series of strikes last night) as well as concerns over the tech sector valuation remains a generic equity market issue right now. 

Europe, though, is in the green this morning (Spain +1.4%, France +0.9%) with Germany and the UK unchanged, as generally better than expected, albeit still soft, GDP data was released this morning as per below:

CountryActualPreviousExpected
France Q/Q0.2%-0.1%0.2%
France Y/Y0.7%0.8%0.8%
Spain Q/Q0.7%0.6%0.6%
Spain Y/Y2.7%2.7%2.5%
Netherlands Q/Q0.4%0.3%0.2%
Netherlands Y/Y1.3%1.4%1.2%
Germany Q/Q0.2%0.4%0.1%
Germany Y/Y0.9%0.7%0.6%
Italy Q/Q0.2%0.3%0.1%
Italy Y/Y1.0%0.8%0.7%
Eurozone Q/Q0.4%0.0%0.2%
Eurozone Y/Y1.0%0.5%0.5%

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Hardly the stuff to quicken your pulse, but better than it could have been.  As to US futures, at this hour (7:15), they are in the green with the NASDAQ (+1.25%) leading the way after MSFT reported excellent numbers last night which has been enough to offset META’s miss.

As to the bond market, after the FOMC, the yield curve steepened significantly with 10-year yields climbing 9bps and 30-year yields rising 11bps at their peak.  the chart below of the 30-year shows it well.  In addition, we continue to hear that the 30-year yield is now its highest since 2008.  Again, I would ask all those complaining, you hated what the Fed did before, what did you expect would happen if it changed?

Source: tradingeconomics.com

European sovereign yields also rose yesterday, albeit not as far, more in the 5bp range, and JGB yields rose 6bps overnight.  The BOE left rates on hold, as expected today with 3 votes to raise rates and 6 to stand pat.  Overnight, JGB yields rose 6bps and other Asian yields rose further.  As usual, the Treasury curve is the leader here.

However, it is interesting to note that 2yr Treasury notes actually fell -5bps yesterday as the market continues to adjust its views of what is going to happen going forward.  Chairman Warsh was explicit in saying that he welcomed market movement doing the Fed’s work for them, and if inflation remains a concern, and it does, yields should rise.  In fact, if the Fed starts to shrink its balance sheet (and remember it is still buying T-bills), I expect the curve to steepen and the front-end rates to decline.

In the commodity market, remarkably despite further US attacks on IRGC military sites, oil (-1.3%) is slipping this morning.  This is another market where things are not necessarily following the previous narrative.  As to metals, they are firmer this morning with gold (+0.3%), silver (+0.9%) and copper (+2.2%) all starting the day in good shape.

Finally, the dollar is softer this morning as the DXY (-0.2%) slips back toward its breakout level of 100.50 once again.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Somebody on Twitter made the point that if the dollar can’t rally amid rising yields, that is a problem.  But my observation, and I believe the numbers back me up, is that the dollar tends to follow short-term yields, like the 2-year, rather than the 30-year bond.  The yen (+0.3%) is having a good day and has backed below 163.00 for the moment taking some pressure off the MOF and the intervention watch.  KRW (+0.6%) continues its remarkable rally which appears to be built on a combination of repatriation of earnings by SK Hynix and Samsung as well as the proceeds from the SK Hynix US IPO, and the strong economic activity plus the BOK’s efforts to internationalize the won.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

But overall, the dollar is under pressure this morning.  and remember, this is not something that the Trump administration worries about, rather they embrace it for its trade benefits.

On the data front, we get a bunch of stuff today as follows:

Initial Claims200K
Continuing Claims1800K
PCE-0.1% (3.7% Y/Y)
Core PCE0.2% (3.3% y/Y)
Q2 GDP (second look)2.1%
Personal Income0.3%
Personal Spending0.3%

Source: tradingeconomics.com

It’s funny, now that Chairman Warsh seems to be de-emphasizing PCE, will it be as important going forward?  Probably still today where a hot number raises the probability of a September hike which currently sits at 63.4%.

Mercifully, there are no Fed speakers today or tomorrow so perhaps we can let the data guide the markets.  Overall, oil still matters a lot, headlines still matter a lot, while the dollar could well slip back into its previous trading range, especially on a soft PCE reading.

Good luck

Adf

The Die Isn’t Cast

Posted on by 
This morning, investors don’t know
Exactly which way things will go
Unlike in the past
The die isn’t cast
So, some pundits will eat some crow

The question is how will the Fed
Explain how they’re looking ahead?
If Warsh has his way
There’s not much they’ll say
But others, more views, want to spread

As market participants prepare for today’s FOMC statement with the potential for a rate hike, as well as the ensuing press conference, I cannot help but marvel at the recent increase in analysts doing their jobs and being forced to think about what can happen.  This is the healthiest thing about this process I believe.  It is also a very different approach than some current FOMC members have taken as they seem quite dismissive of the process.  For instance, in the WSJ article I cited yesterday, I want to highlight this paragraph;

“Governor Christopher Waller, a former economics professor with a reputation for saying what others won’t, put Warsh on the spot, according to several people familiar with the dinner. What’s the point of all this, he asked. Tell me who you’re putting on these groups, he said, and I’ll tell you what they’ll say. There were no brilliant ideas out there that everyone had somehow missed.”  

This is the very definition of hubris, Governor Waller saying he already has all the ideas and, essentially, the task forces are a waste of time.  Every member of the FOMC and every one of the 300+ or 500+ or however many PhDs who work there are Neo Keynesians and all see the world in exactly the same way.  In fact, they clearly believe that their collective view is the ‘only’ view that is correct.  And yet they have failed at their mission statement for more than 5 straight years.  My take is they are all terribly frightened that other ideas will not only be more effective, but that they will demonstrate all the mistakes the current FOMC has made prior to Chairman Warsh’s appointment.

As of 6:45 this morning, the currently priced probability for a hike, as per the Fed funds futures market, is ~38%, an unusual amount of uncertainty on the day of the meeting.  However, as you can see from the table below, there is virtual certainty of a hike in September and a high probability of one in December as well.  Personally, I disagree they will hike at all this year, but that is what makes markets.

Source: cmegroup.com

It has been two years since there has been this much uncertainty ahead of the meeting, and back then it was a question of 25bps or 50bps as a cut, which I would argue is qualitatively different then determining if there would be any action at all.  Otherwise, you need to go back quite a while to see this type of uncertainty, pre-GFC and the beginning of forward guidance.

Meanwhile, the other story of note is the Iranian attack on a US air base in Jordan and renewed fighting in the Gulf region, more than simply in Iran, which has oil prices rebounding sharply from yesterday’s lows, up 5.0% this morning.  The biggest problem with the oil market, from a market perspective, is that it is all headline risk, whether more attacks, peace talks or some other comment from either President Trump or Iran.  The one thing of which I am certain is that this conflict will not last forever and that when it is over, oil prices will fall back sharply and that over time, the Strait of Hormuz will see its transits decrease to ~5% of the global oil market, making it largely irrelevant to the conversation.

Which takes us to the market activity overnight.  Semiconductor companies continue to have some serious problems as SK Hynix reported earnings last night, which, while they beat expectations, their guidance was weaker than expected.  Given what we have seen from the sector lately, it cannot be a surprise that the KOSPI fell another -6.0% last night.  The chart below shows the relative performance of the KOSPI and NASDAQ over the past 5 years, and I have highlighted the peak.  As you can see, the KOSPI massively outperformed (and we thought the NASDAQ was a bubble!) although it is falling back to earth rapidly.  In fact, YTD, it is only higher by 34.4%, after having nearly doubled at the peak.

Source: Bloomberg.com

Elsewhere in Asia, Taiwan (-3.8%) also suffered as did the Nikkei (-1.5%) although other Japanese indices held up just fine.  China (+0.7%) and HK (+2.0%) had solid sessions and most of the rest of the region performed reasonably well.  Remember, once we get past the Fed today, all eyes will turn to Tokyo for the BOJ meeting which comes Friday.

In Europe, it is a mixed picture with concerns over the rising oil price driving some of the concern as we have also seen yields back up a bit.  Spain’s IBEX (-1.5%) is the laggard, but that appears to be a profit taking situation as the market there had rallied to record highs recently.  Elsewhere, France (-0.5%) is soft while the UK (+0.3%) is picking up slightly after some positive housing news and Consumer Credit activity while the DAX is little changed.  As to US futures, at this hour (7:40) they are edging higher, 0.25% or so.

As I mentioned, yields are backing up this morning with Treasuries (+2bps) outperforming vs. European sovereigns which are all higher by between 3bps and 4bps.  This seems entirely a reaction to the rebound in oil prices as there has not been enough other news to matter.

Metals markets are having another session where the relationship with oil is askew.  Gold is unchanged this morning while silver (+1.0%) has edged higher despite the oil rally.  But these metals remain in a downtrend trading in virtual lockstep as per the chart below.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Finally, the dollar is mixed this morning, depending on which counterpart you watch.  The DXY (-0.1%) is a touch softer although there has not been much movement at all in the euro, pound or yen.  In the G10, AUD (-0.5%) is the worst performer after inflation data overnight was cooler than expected and the probability of a rate hike fell even further.  NOK (+0.3%) is responding to oil’s rebound and everything else is minimal.  In the EMG, ZAR (-0.5%) is the laggard du jour on the higher oil prices although in fairness, it is holding its own vs. the gold price, having only declined about 2.5% in the past six months despite the sharp, 25% decline in the price of gold.  

You can be sure that after the FOMC today, all eyes will turn to the BOJ and the yen as the next major discussion point for the FX markets.

And that’s really it today.  The only data is the EIA oil inventories with a small draw expected.  And of course, the FOMC this afternoon.  My take is not much will happen ahead of 2:00, but remember, a large portion of the market has their bet wrong as to the outcome, so if nothing else, expect some volatility in the aftermath.

Good luck

Adf

Far From Dead

Posted on by 
Tomorrow we’ll hear from the Fed
With pundits not sure where they’ll tread
Some call for a hike
So, Warsh can out psych
Inflation that seems far from dead

But others claim hikes he will thwart
Awaiting the task force report
With oil retreating, 
Though some call it fleeting,
The hawks he will likely abort

The one thing we cannot forget
Is all of the outstanding debt
A hike may create
A weaker growth rate
An outcome he’ll surely regret

Let us turn out attention to the FOMC meeting which begins today and culminates in tomorrow’s policy statement and then the press conference that ensues.  On the whole, I would say that Chairman Warsh has already achieved a key objective, market uncertainty about the outcome.  A point I have been making for a very long time is that uncertainty is what creates an anti-fragile market as positioning is inevitably reduced, and more importantly, so is leverage.  And this is true in every market.  While there may have been value in forward guidance at the onset of the GFC such that the Fed wanted to calm markets down, that time is long past.  

Interestingly, perhaps the one individual who is unhappiest is Nick Timiraos at the WSJ, the former Fed whisperer.  He exhibited great power in the market because he was seen as former Chairman Powell’s mouthpiece when Powell wanted to convey information without being directly attributed.  However, it appears that there will be no Fed whisperer in a Warsh Fed, although I suspect even if there is someone, it will not be Powell’s man to whom Warsh turns.  So Timiraos is on the outs anyway.  But you can tell how unhappy he is by the tone of his recent articles like the one last night trying to insinuate that Warsh will not get his way.

At the same time, Bloomberg has an article this morning explaining how Citadel Securities’ chief economist is expecting a hike.  In my opinion, this is how it should be.  Wall Street economists and analysts make enough money that they should be able to do the work themselves and have their own opinions, not merely regurgitate what they hear from the Fed speakers.  (After all, I make no money and have opinions!)

Reiterating my view quickly, I do not see a hike for the following reasons:

  1. Recent data releases point to cooling inflation offering a respite on concerns of runaway prices
  2. Delaying any action until the task forces complete their work and help reset the way the Fed approaches things feels like the goal
  3. The Federal government cannot afford a rate hike as they migrate more and more issuance to the short end of the curve that will directly be impacted.

The counter view basically revolves around the idea that Warsh can ‘earn’ market credibility by hiking now, whether or not it is a policy error.  I don’t think he is concerned about losing credibility at this stage and has set the table, via the task forces, to show he means business when it comes to changing the Fed.  We all find out tomorrow.

As traders await all the news
On earnings, it seems there are views
That AI is losing
Its luster and cruising
Toward outcomes where stocks sing the blues

In my discussion about parabolic markets yesterday, I mentioned the Korean KOSPI index but after last night’s price action, I think a picture is in order.  This from wolfstreet.com.

As I explained, parabolic moves do not end in a range, they fall like the chart above with pullbacks greater than 50% the norm.  This implies that the KOSPI is not done yet, and given the KOSPI is basically two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, both of which are major semiconductor manufacturers, it doesn’t speak well to the semiconductor space in the US either.  Tomorrow, we hear from MSFT and META and then Thursday we get AAPL and AMZN earnings reports.  My take is much is riding on these earnings reports as any indication that growth is starting to slip will feed into my discussion yesterday regarding the second derivative and how that is the driver.  In fact, we saw the announcement yesterday by Nvidia that they were guaranteeing $250 billion of debt for OpenAI to build a new datacenter in Ohio.  At cycle ends, the pace of activity tends to increase as the players want to get things done before the collapse.  I fear that is what we are watching.

Ok, let’s look at markets.  As I’ve already touched on the KOSPI, which fell -10.8% last night, it is not surprising that most of the rest of Asia had a rough go as well.  Tokyo (-4.0%), Taiwan (-4.65%) and China (-2.8%) were the biggest losers overnight although HK (+0.4%) managed to eke out some gains.  In fact, looking across the region, away from the big three mentioned above, it was a more mixed picture.  Indonesia (-0.9%) is having its own problems as the central bank governor resigned and there have been numerous scandals and other cabinet resignations lately undermining both the rupiah (-0.1% and back to multidecade lows) and the stock market there.

As to Europe, given they have no tech sector and the tech sector is the area under the most pressure, I guess we should not be surprised that bourses there are modestly higher this morning, mostly up around +0.3% across the board.  A very pleasant experience compared to the gyrations seen elsewhere.  And US futures at this hour (7:10) are mixed with NASDAQ (-1.1%) suffering while the DJIA (+0.5%) is fine and the SPX is caught in the middle, basically unchanged.

In the bond market, yields continue to edge lower, with Treasuries (-3bps) leading the way and European sovereign yields all lower between -1bp and -2bps. UK gilts (-3bps) are also performing well as the market awaits the BOE’s policy decision on Thursday.  Then JGB yields (-2bps) have slipped in concert as the market awaits the BOJ decision Friday.  At this point, consensus across the board is for no movement, although there has been a discussion regarding the BOJ with some analysts believing a hike is possible.

Turning to commodities, oil (-1.6%) is not the center of attention today for once, and is pushing back toward $80/bbl.  The ongoing decline appears to be based on comments that diplomacy is once again being tried to resolve the Iran situation and the Strait of Hormuz.  Perhaps more surprisingly the metals markets are also falling this morning (Au -1.3%, Ag -2.2%, Cu -1.1%) as their inverse relationship with oil is being tested.  

Finally, the dollar is ever so slightly firmer this morning, but mostly on the order of 0.1% or 0.2%.  AUD (-0.4%) is the worst performer in either G10 or EMG blocs as central bank comments led to a reduction in the probability of a rate hike there next month.  One other thing to note is USDJPY, where, as I type, the market is trading at 163.92, a scant 8 pips from the next big, round number at 164.00, a level almost touched last Thursday (163.99 was the high) but when it trades, it will almost certainly be hailed as an important milestone regarding potential intervention.  I don’t agree with that assessment.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Again, a key feature of BOJ intervention has been an effort to address a volatile market, but as you can see below, while the direction of travel has been consistent, the only volatility has come from BOJ interventions.  Everything else is a slow, steady deterioration of the yen.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

On the data front, there is plenty upcoming this week in addition to the Fed, including PCE on Thursday.

TodayGoods Trade Balance-$100.0B
 Case-Shiller Home Prices1.3%
 Consumer Confidence92.3
WednesdayFOMC Decision3.75% (unchanged)
ThursdayBOE Rate Decision3.75% (unchanged)
 Initial Claims200K
 Continuing Claims1800K
 Q2 GDP2.1%
 Personal Income0.3%
 Personal Spending0.3%
 PCE-0.1% (3.7% Y/Y)
 Core PCE0.2% (3.3% Y/Y)
FridayBOJ Rate Decision1.0% (unchanged)
 Employment Cost Index0.8%
 Chicago PMI56.0
 Michigan Sentiment 54.0

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Obviously, the FOMC meeting will be the big story along with the earnings data, although I imagine that the PCE data may garner some interest for now, at least until we learn what measures of inflation the Fed is going to use going forward.  My fear is the equity market can crack, for now, and that will drive overall trading activity.  As to the dollar, I see no reason for a large move in either direction until we see new policies.

Good luck

Adf

Quite Spicey

Posted on by 
Though Friday things looked pretty dicey
With tech stocks then seen as quite pricey
New word that the bombing
Has ended was calming
And stock markets opened quite spicey

Of course, it can be no surprise
That oil’s now well off its highs
The dollar is slipping
Though yields are just dripping
As bond traders still agonize

President Trump changed his mind about continuing the recent bombing campaign against Iran over the weekend amid questions about alleged US munitions supplies.  But whatever the reason, this was music to the risk markets with oil (opening -6.4%) falling sharply while equity futures (NASDAQ opening +1.25%) rebound from last week’s declines.  Once again, headline risk remains the biggest risk there is in markets.  Note the huge gap lower in the oil market early Sunday evening in the chart below from tradingeconomics.com

At this point, it is a fool’s errand to try to estimate where oil prices are heading going forward as the next headline is likely to be the key driver, and that is a complete unknown.

So, let’s turn our attention to some more fundamental questions that have been brewing in the background and are pretty complex.  I want to start with a remarkable Substack piece I read this weekend which had a completely different perspective on the AI investment thesis than anything that I have seen anywhere else.  And it is quite a persuasive piece.  While I have linked it above, it is quite a long read, so the highlights are as follows:

  • The AI boom is not a tech boom; it is a credit driven real estate cycle
  • This is virtually identical to the run-up to the subprime housing crisis and GFC
  • The key to understand is the second derivative of growth, acceleration.
  • GroundBreaker’s (the author) thesis is that the second derivative on AI valuation has already rolled over and the future for AI stocks is pretty bleak, at least in the medium term.

Below are two charts from his Substack to help describe the issue:

This is a basic description of the movements of the underlying (blue line), its velocity (growth rate, yellow line) and its acceleration (the change in its growth rate, red line).  As you can seem growth can still be increasing, but at a slower rate, and that’s the problem he highlights.  

Below is a chart of OpenAI’s valuation metrics (remember it’s private so the values are episodic, not continuous, but the point is if the change in the rate of growth of the valuation metric starts declining, that is the break where things become a problem, i.e. they may not be able to finance their projected growth going forward.  

And as you can see, it is already heading lower.  This does not speak well to the future for OpenAI, and I would argue, the entire space, as many have made the case this is all Ponzi finance, meaning the funding cannot be repaid on cashflows, only on increasing valuations.  

Now consider the subprime crisis where the problems started when the rate of housing price increases rolled over and all those 2-year teaser rates could no longer be financed at higher valuations.  That’s when they all went bust!  Here’s the thing; the 2nd derivative rolled over in late 2006, the first hiccups didn’t happen until mid-2007 with SocGen closing some funds, Lehman didn’t go bust until September 2008 and the equity market didn’t bottom until March 2009.  It can take a long time for this to play out, but beware the cycle, it could well repeat in AI linked investments.

So, there’s that to consider.

The other thing that I’ve been pondering is gold and its meaning within the financial markets.  Unlike the AI discussion above, I want to discuss two very real sides to this story.  On the one hand, the ongoing destruction of the value of fiat currencies by all major central banks’ policies is real.  Money continues to get printed and inflation continues to rise debasing those fiat currencies.  Adding to the problem is the massive government debt issuance which, if history holds, will be sopped up by those very same central banks, adding to the debasement.  The search for a neutral reserve asset to replace US treasuries is real, but the transition will take a very long time, in my view.  However, all this speaks to increased demand for the barbarous relic, and when that is priced in declining fiat currencies, a higher price.  I think it’s a very strong argument and has been made by many, including this poet.  After all, gold is often thought of as the ultimate inflation hedge.

So, what is the flipside?  As I have written frequently regarding oil prices, we cannot ignore the market pricing and what it is telling us.  Understand that I have been a gold bull for a long time and strongly believe in the long-term debasement concern.  But as a long-time trader and market participant, it is very difficult for me to look at the below, long-term chart of gold and not think that there is a much further decline on the cards.  Parabolic moves, historically, do not resolve by trading sideways for extended periods of time, they fall back… a lot!

While we have recently seen several parabolic moves in market prices, notably the NASDAQ and KOSPI, I want to highlight the last time the NASDAQ had a parabolic move, during the tech bubble in 1999-2000.  The chart below is a logarithmic chart of the QQQ ETF.  As you can see back in 2000 – 2002, it fell a very long way after the bubble burst, some 88%, a much larger move than during the GFC!  

There is one other trading market, that while many may dismiss its meaning, I would contend is very representative of the way markets behave across all asset classes, Bitcoin.  The below chart shows it from its beginning, and you can see a number of essentially parabolic moves higher, each resolving with a decline of at least 50% and at times more than 70%.

Source: coinmarketcap.com

My point is that gold shows all the signs of having peaked for a while, and it has ‘only’ fallen some 25% from its highs.  From a trading history perspective, there is nothing that would seem to prevent a move down to $2800/oz or so, a 50% retracement from the high.  

So, which is it?  As I remain long gold in the personal portfolio, I have been a beneficiary of the long climb higher and would love to see it continue.  And there is much to be said for the debasement theory.  But both sides of this argument can be correct with the time frame the key differentiator. We could see a further short-term decline before a renewed upward move of significant magnitude.  Much will depend on how global macroeconomics and economic statecraft plays out over the coming months/years.  And this is why trading is hard!  One last thing describing just how much things have changed regarding gold and sentiment around it, this headline in Bloomberg this morning is remarkable, Gold Climbs as Pause in Mideast Fighting Curbs Inflation Risk.  

Ok, sorry for my rants, but a brief tour of markets show things are exactly as you would expect based on the reduction of tensions in Iran. Equity markets are higher around the world as per the below tradingeconomics.com screen shot, and don’t be fooled by Brazil, it hasn’t opened yet and there are no futures, so that was Friday’s performance.

As to bond yields, they too, are lower across the board as per the below Bloomberg.com screenshot.  Canada, Mexico and Brazil markets are not yet opened, hence the lack of movement.

Oil has fallen further than when I started writing last evening with WTI (-8.2%) and Brent (-9.7%) both sharply lower.  Regarding Brent, apparently there has been a resumption of flows through Kazakhstan which is helping even more there.  Metals are higher (Au +1.1%, Ag +2.2%, Cu +0.9%), which is keeping with the latest theme.  And finally, the dollar is broadly softer, as also would be expected given the movement in other markets.  The two key exceptions here are NOK (-0.7%) which is clearly a reaction to the movement in oil prices and KRW (-0.8%) which actually started the session much stronger but has reversed.  While I read a rationale about concerns over a Fed rate hike, given the movement in oil and yields, that doesn’t seem right.  Rather, after a more than 6% appreciation over the course of the past 3 weeks, it seems more like a reflexive bounce in the dollar.

Source: tradingeconmomics.com

On the data front today, this morning brings Durable Goods (exp 2.5%, 0.8% ex-Transport) but that is all.  I will go deeper tomorrow, and remember, the FOMC meets this week with the current pricing 33% for a hike, even after the decline in oil prices today.  I remain in the no move camp but will discuss tomorrow.

And that’s more than enough.

Good luck

Adf

Commit Seppuku

Posted on by 
Alas, nothing’s changed in Iran
And feces is hitting the fan
So, pundits feel strongly, 
Although I think wrongly
A rate hike is part of the plan

In fairness, the bond market, too
Is on board, that ere July’s through
The Fed will have raised
Won’t they be amazed
If Warsh won’t commit seppuku?

Yesterday’s dominant theme was the fact that oil prices had risen so aggressively with WTI above $90/bbl and Brent touching $100/bbl.  Interestingly, both are lower this morning, WTI (-2.5%) and Brent (-2.7%) and both are back below those big psychological levels despite no seeming changes on the ground in Iran.  The Houthis are still causing trouble in the Bab al Mandeb, the US is still attacking sites along the Persian Gulf and there are no peace discussions ongoing.  A headline in the WSJ this morning explained, Trump Is Losing Patience Over an Iran War With No Clear End in Sight.

But really, the bigger discussion has been about US yields (and correspondingly global yields) as they continue to head higher.  Below is a screenshot from Bloomberg showing the yield curve and how yields have changed in the past month and year.

There has been quite a bit of digital ink spilled over the concept that short-dated T-bills have now priced in a rate hike next week, as per Wolfstreet.com,

“The 2-month Treasury yield spiked by 13 basis points today and by 15 basis points during the week to close at 3.95%, according to Treasury Department’s yield calculation. This is at the upper end of the Fed’s target range after it hikes by 25 basis points, which would bring its target range to 3.75%-4.0%. And it is 32 basis points above the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR, blue), which the Fed targets with its policy rates. This is a stunning move, pricing in a “surprise” rate hike at the FOMC meeting next week.”

And here is his accompanying chart.

Of course, what makes all this so juicy is that Chairman Warsh has gone out of his way to end forward guidance so market participants are now left to their own devices to determine what the Fed may do, something most of them have either forgotten, or never knew, how to do.  

Let’s consider, for a moment, some potential outcomes and the rationales behind them.  First, it is critical to remember that Warsh needs a majority of the voters, so at least 7, to get to a result.

  • No change (poet’s estimated probability 90%) – the most recent inflation data, both CPI and PPI were much cooler than expected thus offering significant cover to leave policy on hold.  Add to that the fact that the task forces will not have completed their work and report on anything.  This means Warsh can reasonably say, before we do anything, let’s make sure we are looking at things that are fit for purpose.  One last thing to recall is that if energy prices are the driver, raising interest rates will not produce more energy, so it is the wrong action to solve the problem.
  • 25bp hike (10% probability) – while there have been several FOMC members who discussed the needs for hiking rates as inflation was becoming uncomfortably high, I don’t believe that contingent is large enough to make up a majority, especially of voters.  In addition, the history of central bank rate hikes into energy price spikes is replete with disasters across the board.  After all, the same pundits who are calling for a hike explain that rising energy prices are like a tax and weaken economic activity.  Certainly, the Treasury market price action indicates there are many who believe a hike is coming and if we look at Fed funds futures markets, the probability is higher than mine at about 30% as per the below chart from cmegroup.com, but look at how much that has changed over the past month.  My point is that there is no consistency of view.
  • 50bp hike (NO CHANCE) – there is a group in the analyst community who are calling for a shock maneuver of a 50bp hike.  The rationale seems to be that this would burnish Warsh’s hawkish credentials, and the bond market would rally on the news.  But even if he wanted to do this, and I don’t think that is the case at all, it would require him to get six others to go along.  There is no way that type of viewpoint exists on the committee, I am convinced.  This is clickbait in my view, analysts making outlandish calls so people will read their stuff.

In the meantime, though, yields do continue to rise around the world.  While this morning, they have backed off from yesterday’s recent highs (UST -1bp, bunds -2bps, gilts -4bps, OATs -3bps, BTPs -3bps), they remain just below levels not seen in several years.  One interesting thing about the European sovereign market is the fact that yields in Greece (3.90%) are lower than in either France (3.99%) or Italy (4.01%).  It wasn’t that long ago that Greece was the poster child for fiscal profligacy and lived through a depression.  But give them credit, they learned and now run a primary surplus in their fiscal account, something not seen in many other nations these days, certainly not the US, France or Germany.

But rising rates are wreaking havoc with equity markets, and that has become another fiscal problem since tax receipts from capital gains is such a significant part of the tax base these days, at least in the US.  So, yesterday’s desultory performance in the US, led lower by the NASDAQ’s -2.15% decline, was followed with a similarly negative feeling in Asia (Tokyo -2.7%, China -1.7%, HK -1.0%, Korea -5.7%, Taiwan -2.7%) with the similarity that they are all tech focused.  But weakness in the region was virtually universal, albeit not as dramatic.

In Europe, though, things are looking better after very solid Flash PMI data across the board.  So, Germany (+0.7%) is leading the way higher along with Spain (+0.8%) although France (+0.3%) and the UK (+0.1%) are also in the green, with the latter despite the fact that new PM Burnham is already discussing raising property taxes.  As to US futures, at this hour (7:30) they are marginally higher.  Despite yesterday’s angst, the NASDAQ has not been able to breach the key support level I am watching, as per the below chart.  (If it does, I will be looking to buy QQQ puts, but we shall see if that happens.)

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Briefly regarding metals markets, with oil under pressure today, we cannot be surprised that the metals markets are climbing with gold (+0.2%), silver (+1.2%) and copper (+0.1%) all in the green.  Earlier this week it appeared that relationship may have broken, but it has reasserted itself for now.

Finally, the dollar is little changed this morning, perhaps slightly softer.  But it has rallied over the past week alongside yields as per the below chart of the DXY.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

The major outlier today is KRW (+0.9%) although that is simply an ongoing extension of the central bank’s efforts to add liquidity and internationalize the currency.  Thus far, it has been pretty successful, at least their discussions of the process.  Since things don’t really change until January 2027, I guess we will need to wait until later to find out if it holds up.

But I also wanted to mention the yen (0.0%) which yesterday touched yet another new 40-year low (dollar high).  I have created a chart of USDJPY from FRED data so you can get a sense of how quickly the yen appreciated back then in the wake of the Plaza Accord.  The red circled area down leg took place almost entirely in June 1986.

And that’s pretty much it.  On the data front we get Flash PMIs (exp Manfacutring 54.3, Services 51.5) and New Home Sales (610K).  Once again, we are at a summer weekend so I expect that by noon, things will really slow down.  I don’t believe today’s data will have an impact, and I expect a pretty dull day overall.  Arguably, until the FOMC, absent a major turn in the Gulf, things should remain fairly stagnant as there is no data of note to change opinions. 

Good luck and good weekend

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A Bad Taste

Posted on by 
For weeks, things appeared to get better
As yields slipped and helped every debtor
But we’ve seen some changes
With yields breaking ranges
And oil back to the pacesetter

So, stocks are not really embraced
While bonds have left all a bad taste
The dollar’s moved higher
While gold’s back to dire
With analysts worldwide disgraced

Investors are not as happy this morning as they had been for the past several weeks as the situation in Iran and the Middle East appears to be deteriorating again.  The US continues to attack Iranian missile launchers and fortifications on a daily basis while Iran continues to fire missiles at targets throughout the Gulf region.  As well, the Houthis are back at it in the Red Sea restricting oil flows through there as well.  Arguably the chart below of oil (+4.0%) is the most descriptive view of what is driving everything.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Crude is higher by 29% in the past month and back above $90/bbl.  This makes things tough on everybody but the oil companies.  Does this mean we are running out of oil?  I don’t think that is the case.  Rather, the short-term impediments to shipping it are driving the price.  But the price is rising nonetheless and that is impacting everything else.  If you recall when things kicked off in this war back in March, the oil price was the primary catalyst for movement in every market. As things seemed to settle down and it appeared there was an opportunity for a resolution, focus turned back to things like earnings for equities and interest rate differentials for currencies with oil in the background.  But it appears we are back to, as oil goes, so goes every other market.

For instance, here is a chart of oil and 10-year Treasury yields over the past month.  As you can see, the trajectory, especially over the past several sessions, is quite similar.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

But if we look at 10-year yields across Europe, we can see that they are all climbing in sync as well.

German yields have reached their highest level in 15 years according to Bloomberg.

The entire moderation story is falling apart.  So, now instead of conversations discussing the relative merits of AI and whether it will be a boon for mankind or end it, we are discussing the probability that the world will end soon.  I guess it’s no surprise that risk is under pressure.  Of course, the latter conversation doesn’t seem that coherent to me as if there is concern over the end of the world, I would have thought gold would have a better bid!

At any rate, oil is the main story and the driver of every market.  It underpins the question of whether the ECB will hike rates today (they won’t) or whether the FOMC will do so next week (also, they won’t) but the probabilities for those moves have risen.  It has also detracted from the earnings stories, or perhaps exacerbated the negatives, or perceived negatives.

For instance, Alphabet reported last night and Q2 revenues beat estimates coming in at $119.8 billion.  But all the talk is of free cash flow, which in this Bloomberg chart shows how much they are spending on the AI buildout.

Here’s my question, is it bad that Alphabet is spending its money to improve its future?  If it recognizes the criticality of AI to the future of its own existence, it seems like a reasonable move.  Of course, the naysayers claim that spending all that cash is a waste.  I don’t know the answer, and I suspect nobody does yet, but companies spending their cash flow on improving their business seems to be the whole idea behind having companies in the first place.  

It begs the question, on what did investors base the value of Alphabet before AI?  If it was seen as only a cash cow, it certainly traded at a very high multiple for a boring business.  But today, it will be tarred with the oil brush along with all stocks.

Ok, I have gone far afield here, let’s get back to markets overnight.  Yesterday’s lackluster US session was followed by strength throughout most of Asia.  Tokyo (+0.5%), China (+0.25%), HK (+1.3%) and Korea (+4.4%) all had solid sessions with Korea continuing to define what volatility means in equity markets.  Look at the expansion in the daily ranges in this barchart.com chart of the KOSPI over the past month.  It’s remarkable!

European bourses, though, are having a much rougher go of things this morning as Brent crude approaches $100/bbl.  France (-1.1%), Italy (-1.9%), Spain (-0.6%) and Germany (-0.6%) are under real pressure this morning as earnings numbers there have been lackluster and the broader macro picture deteriorates all the while.  As to US futures, right now (7:40), they are pointing lower led by the NASDAQ (-1.2%) although it has not yet breached that critical support level as per the below chart.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

We’ve already discussed bond markets, with yields higher this morning by between 2bps and 3bps across Treasuries and all European sovereign markets.  Turning to the metals, while we had a couple of days where they rallied alongside oil, this morning they have reversed course with gold (-1.3%), silver (-2.6%) and copper (-0.7%) all under pressure.  It seems the interest rate story is today’s discussion as higher yields are the topic du jour.

Finally, the dollar is stronger across the board this morning, although most of this strength just materialized over the past few hours with the Asia session broadly unchanged.  But no matter how you slice it, the dollar is firmer vs. all its G10 counterparts by about 0.25% and almost all of its EMG counterparts by a similar amount.  The exceptions this morning are BRL (+0.25%) and KRW (+0.3%).  Regarding Brazil, you must remember they are an oil exporter, so benefit from high oil prices and have amongst the highest real interest rates around, so draw capital for that as well in the carry trade.  The real has appreciated about 8.5% during the past year, so this is nothing new.  As to KRW, the government’s efforts at internationalization continue to be paying off and a look at the chart below shows that this trend is quite strong right now.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

There was an interesting article in Bloomberg this morning explaining how the dollar’s weakness vs. LATAM currencies has begun to bite for local companies but I find it quite interesting when it comes to discussions about the dollar; some find it too strong and are looking for it to tumble while others complain it is too weak!  Seems nobody is ever happy here!

On the data front we see Chicago Fed National Activity (exp 0.14) as well as Initial (212K) and Continuing (1809K) Claims.  Of course, we have the ECB announcement shortly, although no change is expected.  Something getting very little press is the fact that Crude Oil stocks rose in the US last week, but I guess that doesn’t suit the narrative!

This market is entirely focused on oil, and as it moves, so will everything else.  If oil keeps climbing, look for stocks and gold to fall while yields and the dollar rise.  If oil reverses, so with those moves.

Good luck

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