Tag Archives: #FOMC

Doom Was Misspent

Posted on by 
The 10-year yield hit Five Percent
And somehow, despite this event
The nation’s still here
And growth’s still in gear
Perhaps all that doom was misspent

It’s not to say things are all great
And many, til Wednesday will wait
To see if the Fed
And chief talking head, 
Chair Warsh, will then bless a new rate

I’m going to let pictures do much of the talking to start this morning as we are seeing significant moves across the board in various classes.  To start with government bonds, here is this morning’s view from a Bloomberg screenshot.

As you can see, yields have jumped with most nations seeing them climb around 5bps or more.  (Canada, Brazil and Mexico are not yet open, hence the lack of movement). Prior to touching, and now breaking the 5.0% level, the punditry had spilled a great deal of ink regarding how devastating this was going to be for both risk assets and for the US economy.  On the first count, if we look at equity markets around the world this morning, they were correct, selling is the name of the game as you can see in the below screenshot from tradingeconomics.com

There are not many happy equity investors this morning, although energy shares are holding their own better than most other things.  (Again, Canada and Mexico are closed.)  But as to the second point, it remains to be seen how devastating 5.0% yields on the 10-year Treasury are going to be.  And of course, we still have the FOMC meeting starting today with the policy announcement and press conference coming out tomorrow afternoon. 

But here’s the thing to remember about the equity markets, even the NASDAQ, which has had the most discussion as the tech sector has been rerating lower, is only lower by 6.3% from its all-time high seen in early June.  While nobody ever likes to see their portfolios decline in value, prices remain dramatically higher over the past several years and all three major indices are still higher by 10% or more so far in 2026.  It is hard to call the below chart of the NASDAQ bearish!

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Which, I guess, takes us to the Fed and the ongoing discussion about what they will do.  Depending on where you look, the probability priced into markets for the Fed to hike rates tomorrow is 92% (CME futures) or 100% (rateprobability.com).  Looking at the latter’s most recent chart of the six major G10 central banks, market expectations are for interest rates to rise over the next year by at least 100bps across the board.  (Australia just hiked rates last week so that was their first 25bps).

Now, I often make the case that market pricing ought to be the key feature to watch when considering a situation, but I have to admit, when it comes to the Fed funds rate, there is a bit more to the story, namely the politics involved.  

Let me start by repeating my view that I believe a rate hike would be a mistake.  While headline inflation is running above target, it remains largely an energy story, and we all understand that is outside the Fed’s control.  But if you dig deeper into the inflation statistics, things are not great, but not calamitous either.  It is ironic, if Congress were truly worried about inflation, they would cut spending to balance the budget at which point I am highly confident inflation would no longer be a concern.  Martin Armstrong (@StrongEconomics) made an excellent point this morning on X worth repeating here relative to the FOMC meeting.

As to Chairman Warsh, I think he still must be frustrated that the discussion revolves around what the FOMC is going to do but I presume he will take the information of higher yields in the back end into account regarding this decision.  Remember, too, it is not just his decision, 7 voters need to vote for a hike, and while we know there are three that believe it is proper, are there four more?  I guess we will find out tomorrow afternoon.

It’s interesting, even though oil and energy prices remain the key driver of market activity, they get remarkably little press compared to the stock and bond markets.  Sure, there are still stories about how the real energy crisis is about to come, and market pricing is certainly indicating more concern now than several months ago, but the price of Nvidia or Meta or the 10-year is the top story these days.  At any rate, oil (+1.25%) is higher this morning but has stalled just above $100/bbl for now.  Interestingly, NatGas (-0.6%) is softer and the same is true across Europe and the UK.  I find that quite interesting, especially in the latter places, as there is no indication that more supply is forthcoming.  And, not surprisingly, gold (-0.4%) and silver (-0.1%) are slightly softer with the ongoing rally in oil prices.

Finally, the dollar, which had a very strong session yesterday, is continuing to rally this morning.  it seems that even though interest rates are rising around the world, those higher rates only help the dollar.  Perhaps this is one reason that despite all the hate the dollar absorbs from a certain part of the financial community, it remains the haven of choice.  Open capital markets are worth an awful lot to international investors, and none are more open than those in the US.

Perhaps this is a good time to discuss China, a land of closed capital markets,  and what is happening there.  Last night they released some of their key economic statistics and, the idea that domestic demand is being supported is a joke.  

Source: tradingeconomics.com

It is very difficult to look at these numbers and think things are going gangbusters there.  For instance, the housing market, which has been a key destination for private savings has been declining for five years and has been negative for more than four.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

But more tellingly to me was the new regulations that were imposed starting today regarding the ability of people in China to simply leave the country on holiday.  The below tweet from journalist Melissa Chen from The Spectator is a telling sign that there is growing stress in that nation.

Again, my point is that as many problems as exist in the US, and we have plenty, it is not as though other nations are killing it.  Rather, they, too, are being killed.  Now, has this impacted the CNY?  Not at all.  It is a completely controlled currency and the PBOC is slowly driving it higher although it remains massively undervalued.  As to the rest of the FX market, the dollar is stronger by somewhere between 0.1% and 0.3% nearly across the board with only KRW (-0.9%) outside that window, but remember, the won has been flying over the past two months, so a little pullback is no surprise.

On the data front, this morning brings Empire State Manufacturing (exp 14.75) and that’s it.  It is also worth mentioning that the German ZEW Sentiment Index was released at a weaker than expected 34.7, just showing that there is a bit of despair all around the world.

I have a feeling today is going to be relatively quiet as all eyes look to the Marriner Eccles Building and Chairman Warsh tomorrow afternoon.

Good luck

Adf

Tossed to the Fates

Posted on by 
The market’s now certain this week
On Wednesday, when Warsh gets to speak
That he’ll have raised rates
And tossed to the fates
Just how much more havoc he’ll wreak

But ask yourself, what would you do
As Fed chair, midst this ballyhoo
A rate hike don’t drill
Instead, it might kill
The growth impulse we’re living through

I guess it’s a done deal, at least in the market’s collective mind, that the FOMC is going to hike rates on Wednesday.  This is according to the Fed funds futures market as you can see below.  In addition, you can see that the futures market is now pricing essentially 4 hikes over the course of the next year.

So, why the change of heart?  Apparently, the ‘hot’ CPI data from Friday combined with higher oil prices this morning has sealed the deal.  Let’s take the two in order.  Below are the reported CPI figures from Friday:

Source: tradingeconomics.com

It seems the fact that the M/M Core result was 0.3% instead of the 0.2% forecast, despite the fact that the Y/Y number was as expected at 2.4%, has been the catalyst for the increased certainty of a hike.  You may recall that Friday before the CPI release the futures market had priced in about a 60% probability of a hike, i.e., still a lot of uncertainty.  Of course, oil prices (+2.6%) are higher this morning as well after the Saudis cut movement through their East-West pipeline once it had been attacked, which has further reduced the flow of oil from the Middle East.  And certainly, if oil prices continue to rise, that will feed into inflation pretty quickly as we saw at the beginning of the summer.  

However, just for a moment, let us consider the rationale behind raising interest rates to address inflation.  The main central bank thesis is that higher interest rates will reduce demand and therefore it will reduce price pressures.  This process takes some time, the so-called long and variable lags of Fedspeak, but this is what it boils down to, reduce demand to reduce prices.  As an aside, history has shown that every economic boom has been ended by the central bank squashing it with higher interest rates.

But now let us consider the current situation.  Higher oil prices are certainly driving up some portion of the overall consumption basket, and that is responsible for the bulk of the rise in measured inflation.  Higher oil prices are also acting as a dampener of demand as money that may have gone toward other things is now being used to pay up for gasoline and diesel.  The natural result is those other things, whether goods or services, have seen demand slip somewhat and the purveyors of those things have limited ability to raise prices, at least those not getting paid directly by governments like healthcare providers.  In other words, higher oil prices are already reducing the demand that the Fed will be trying to address via a rate hike.

If the Fed decides to hike rates this week, they will be reducing demand further and could well push the economy off its current solid growth path to something less positive where companies see further reductions in demand and begin to reduce headcount.  Again, history has shown that central bank rate hikes to address energy price shocks (or really any exogenous price shocks) have been categorical mistakes.  I fear this is where we could be headed.  And the worst part is that if they hike rates, it won’t change oil prices at all. 

As a reminder, a quick look at the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q3 GDP estimate shows things are looking pretty good at 4.4%.

Perhaps this discussion is the reason that I am most positive about Kevin Warsh as chairman.  I don’t know if they will hike or not this week, but the entire idea of the five task forces is to try to change the way the Fed looks at the world.  Their neo-Keynesian view has become destructive, in my mind, given the complexities that have arisen in the economy with globalization dramatically reduced and trade policies no longer moving toward free trade.  As well, the changing demographics of the US, both via an aging population and a reduction in immigration in addition to actual deportations is having a significant impact on the economy and does not appear to have been taken into account in the current Fed models.

Away from this discussion, the other main topic is AI and whether it will, indeed, kill us all, or whether it is simply a very powerful tool that if used well can enhance productivity.  Like most issues these days there doesn’t appear to be any middle ground here.  For me, I have a hard time overcoming the perspective that there is a well-orchestrated campaign now to demonize AI in an effort to get the government, at both state and federal levels, to regulate it more strictly, although I don’t know who benefits from this most so I’m not sure who is funding it.  It’s almost as though the demonization of data centers has been unable to slow the train enough, so they had to up the ante and explain AI is Skynet.

Ok, let’s see how all this new news is impacting markets.  Since commodities seem to be the primary driver right now, if we look beyond oil, we see NatGas (+2.3%) rising this morning but it remains extremely well behaved and substantially cheaper than in Europe and the UK as per the below chart from tradingeconomics.com

In fact, putting all three prices into $/MMBtu, the US is at $2.89, the UK is at ~$27.75 and the EU is at ~$27.99.  In other words, Europe and the UK are paying nearly 10X what we pay for NatGas.  They have serious problems there.  As to the precious metals, they are not that precious this morning as the negative correlation with oil continues (Au -1.3%, Ag -2.1%, Cu -1.9%).

Turning to bonds, this is the other key discussion point as 10-year yields approach 5.0% in the US.  This morning, Treasury yields are unchanged, although they have climbed 31bps in the past month.  European sovereign yields are all a touch higher with Italy (+4bps) in the worst shape but the rest of the continent seeing yields climb between 1bp and 3bps.  And JGBs, ahead of the BOJ meeting on Friday, have edged higher by 1bp.

In the equity markets, Friday’s US rally (which given all the hype on the Fed tightening seems strange, although oil prices did slide then, has been followed by a mixed picture in both Asia and Europe.  In Asia, the Nikkei (-0.8%) suffered although the broader TOPIX (+0.75%) did not.  HK (+0.5%) rallied as did some of the smaller regional markets (Australia, Singapore, Malaysia) but there was more substantial weakness amongst Korea (-3.25%) and China (-0.7%). Mixed describes it well.  in Europe, there is far more red (Italy -1.1%, Spain -0.85, France -0.7%, Germany -0.3%) than green (UK +0.7%) with the latter benefitting as oil stocks (BP and Shell) both rallied on the back of oil price rises and that has been sufficient to counter the other negativity.  As to US futures, they are all lower this morning with the NASDAQ (-1.5%), leading the way with the others lower by -0.5% or so.

Finally, the dollar is rocking this morning, with DXY (+0.4%) a pretty good indicator of things.  EUR, AUD, NZD, JPY are all lower by about that amount, as is NOK (-0.4%) despite the rise in oil prices.  SEK (-0.8%) is the G10 laggard but it has company with ZAR (-0.8%) on weaker gold prices and CE3 (PLN -0.9%, CZK -0.75%, HUF -0.8%) all demonstrating their high beta to the euro.  In LATAM, MXN (-0.6%) and CLP (-0.6%) are both under pressure on metals weakness and even KRW (-0.3%), which has been on a tear, is softer this morning.  Higher US rates and the prospect for even higher ones seems to be driving market activity.

On the data front, obviously, this week is all about the Fed, but here is the other stuff:

TuesdayEmpire State Manufacturing14.75
WednesdayRetail Sales0.9%
 -ex Autos0.6%
 FOMC Decision4.0% (current 3.75%)
 Brazil Interest Rate Decision13.75% (current 14.0%)
ThursdayInitial Claims205K
 Continuing Claims1775K
 Housing Starts1.31M
 Building Permits1.41M
 Philly Fed32.5
FridayBOJ Interest Rate Decision1.25% (current 1.00%)
 IP0.3%
 Capacity Utilization76.4%
 Leading Indicators0.1%

Source: tradingeconomics.com

So, it all comes down to, will they hike or not.  While I don’t believe it is the right thing to do, the market certainly believes that to be the case.  I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if they do hike, to see a counter reaction, like a buy the rumor, sell the news outcome, especially in the FX markets.

Good luck

Adf

Pundits and Bores

Posted on by 
The fallout from Warsh’s decision
To leave rates without a revision
Has opened the doors
For pundits and bores
With hawks and doves set for collision

For some, Warsh has failed from the start
As they felt a rate hike was smart
But others explain
That under his reign
It’s markets that play the main part

For a no action outcome by the Fed last week, it certainly is interesting how much digital ink has been spilled discussing the outcome of that meeting and, depending on which side of the argument you fall, whether it was the right move or an error.  You know I have been of the belief that there will be zero rate hikes this year and nothing has changed that opinion yet.

There is a great deal of conversation regarding the Fed’s credibility and how despite Warsh’s tough talk about achieving their 2% inflation goal at his first meeting, by doing nothing last week, he has trashed that credibility.  My first thought here is, given the Fed has failed in its key objective for more than 5 straight years on its own terms, it is difficult for me to accept they had a lot of credibility left to trash.  But my second thought is to listen to the Chairman’s words about allowing the market to do its job, and not simply watch the Fed, and I realize there are an awful lot of analysts and pundits who don’t know how to do that and therefore are extremely uncomfortable now.  As I wrote last week, these folks get paid a lot of money by Wall Street and now they have to earn it.  So perhaps that explains the ongoing diatribes.

Much has been made of the fact that between the June and July FOMC meetings, US Treasury yields rose substantially as you can see from the below chart.

Source” tradingeconomics.com

At the close on Friday, they had risen 34bps in the 30-year and 28bps in the 10-year), although this morning, with oil prices (-5.6%) falling on the back of a renewed diplomatic initiative in Iran, both of those bonds have seen yields back off by 5bps. 

Now, one of the things that Warsh specifically explained in the press conference was that the market had raised rates already, effectively doing the Fed’s job for them.  And here is the point of departure, I believe, regarding the punditry viewpoint and the Warsh viewpoint.  Warsh has been explicit in saying he wants the Fed’s footprint in the markets to shrink.  He wants market participants to, “play the ball, not the referee”.  However, the pundits claim that the only reason rates rose was in anticipation of the Fed hiking rates.  

So, let’s try a little thought experiment.  Assume there was no Fed, instead that money supply was mechanically increased by 2% per year and that all interest rates were determined by the market.  Do you believe that in this scenario, a government running consistent extremely large deficits would not drive interest rates higher than they otherwise would be, without a central bank to officially do so?  I know I do.  Is that any different than the market pushing yields higher because they are concerned with excess supply of Treasuries and other inflation concerns?  

The Fed has had a major, and in Warsh’s (and my) view, too large impact on markets for a long time, since Black Monday in 1987.  Change is hard and the punditry does not like the fact that they are going to have to actually think and pay attention to many variables in order to have a viable view on things, so they are all crying and claiming Warsh is making a huge mistake.  While not surprising, I think they are completely wrong.  

It is also important to understand that the current yields in the bond market are anything but ordinary. Below is a chart I created with FRED data and included the long-term average 10-year yield since 1962, which happens to be 5.81%, more than 100bps above current levels.  For a very long time, a good rule of thumb for the 10-year yield was it should be approximate the nominal GDP growth rate, but we have gone through such a long period of financial repression, that idea faded away.  Perhaps that is coming back into vogue, so at the long-term average, we could see 3.8% GDP growth and 2.0% inflation.  And even today, it could represent 2.7% GDP growth and 2.0% inflation.  I don’t think anybody would be unhappy with that outcome.

My understanding is the task forces will not be reporting until early next year.  At the same time, I am convinced that Mr Warsh is very serious about making significant changes at the Fed going forward, and I applaud that.  But it is going to require him to convince 18 other people who have been inculcated in a process that has proven to be a failure but offers comfort to those people because they know how it works.  Change is very hard, and this will be harder than most.  One last thing, the biggest change is going to be the balance sheet.  The Fed continues to buy T-bills and expand the balance sheet as they continue to seek to maintain “ample” reserves, so banks have liquidity.  I would not be surprised if when we hear from Chairman Warsh at the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of the month, he indicates the Fed will stop buying bills at the next meeting moving further down the path of change.

Surprising comments
Bessent admitted the Fed
Joined the Japanese

The following statement released by Japan’s MOF is quite a surprise, at least the fact that they admitted to the action, something that has rarely been the case in the past.  

Some have made the point that given Japan is the largest holder of Treasury securities in the world (other than the Fed) and that they would need to sell their Treasuries to fund intervention, this was the driving force.  Certainly, the US is not keen to have holders sell their bonds at this point.  As you can see in the chart below, this intervention has had a larger impact than the previous bouts which were solo Japanese efforts.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

At the dollar’s low, the yen appreciated about 5% in the past two sessions, certainly a very large move.  One of the other things that was interesting was that ostensibly, the Treasury sold EURJPY, not USDJPY.  Perhaps they had extra euros lying around they no longer wanted.  According to BOJ data, it appears the Japanese spent something like $33 billion on the intervention, but I have no indication as to the US effort.

Joint intervention is pretty rare, with the last time being in the wake of the earthquake/tsunami at Fukushima in 2011 when the yen strengthened dramatically.  But it also has a better track record than solo intervention, although absent significant fiscal changes, on both sides of this equation, I suspect that within a few months, the yen will weaken again.

Ok, I feel like that’s enough for one morning.  The oil story, as I mentioned, is that the President has called off the mooted weekend attacks and diplomacy is back on the table.  Interestingly, the metals markets are not as excited by that with gold (+0.15%), silver (+0.6%) and copper (+0.75%) all higher, but not by very much, especially given the size of the decline in crude prices.  And product prices (gasoline -3.4%, heating oil -3.0%) are also sharply lower.

As also mentioned above, bond yields have backed off with European sovereigns sliding far more than Treasuries, between -6bps (Germany, Netherlands) and -9bps (UK, Italy, Greece).  However, JGB yields (+3bps) did not get the memo although I suppose that has more to do with the belief that the BOJ is going to be forced to hike rates as part of the joint US-Japanese currency efforts.

As to the equity markets, after Friday’s US rally, the picture in Asia was mixed, despite the oil price decline, although for Japan, a stronger yen is often a problem for Japanese equities.  The worst performers were Korea (-5.1%), Tokyo (-0.9%) and China (-1.0%) while much of the rest of the region followed the US higher (HK +0.5%, India +0.7%, Taiwan +0.6%, Australia +0.5%) with the smaller exchanges mostly higher as well.

In Europe, things are generally bright with Germany (+1.4%), France (+1.3%) and Spain (+0.75%) all nicely higher despite (because of) modestly weaker PMI data although the UK (0.0%) has not been able to overcome its PMI weakness.  Now, in fairness to the UK, its 51.9 reading, while weaker than last month and forecast, is still about the best in Europe.  As to US futures, they are all in the green, led by the DJIA (+0.8%) at this hour (7:00).

Finally, the dollar is kind of confused overall.  The big winner today is KRW (+1.0%) although that trade has been ongoing for more than a month and is approaching an 8% gain over that period.  The yen (+0.4%) continues to climb, albeit less aggressively, although the other G10 currencies are generally under pressure (GBP -0.15%, AUD -0.3%, CAD -0.2%, NOK -0.6%).

However, I must mention something that Alyosha wrote this morning in Market Vibes that is worth considering; two of the major positions in markets were short bonds and short yen.  Joint intervention by the US and Japan to sell EURJPY has likely forced a lot of covering in both of those markets and it would not be surprising to see more activity like that and further short covering.  Japan is the largest holder of French bonds as well as Treasuries and could easily sell those without a peep from the US.  

Ok, I have gone way over my daily quota this morning, although there were a couple of really big, and complex stories to discuss.  On the data front, today brings ISM Manufacturing (exp 54.0) and I will delve into the rest of the week’s data, including Friday’s payroll report tomorrow.

Good luck

Adf

Sense of Foreboding

Posted on by 
Well, three little piggies said, whoa!
We think Fed funds rates are too low
But nine said, no way
We think they’re OK
And if hikes come, we should go slow

As well, pundit angst is exploding
Because they are now stuck decoding
The sparse words Warsh tenders
And so, story vendors
Now all have a sense of foreboding

It is truly remarkable to me how much angst was generated because Chairman Warsh refuses to offer any guidance whatsoever on what the Fed may do going forward.  The same people who have railed at the Fed for being the underlying cause of economic problems, are now furious that he is trying to change their operating process.  This tells me that much of that previous concern was theater as those same folks were either making a lot of money in the previous system or had a level of comfort that their positions were protected by the Fed put.

One of the biggest impacts the Fed has had in our society has been Ben Bernanke’s “portfolio-balance channel”, better known as trickle-down economics.  His idea that buying Treasuries and forcing investors out the risk curve was a major driver of the current wealth and income inequalities that exist in today’s K-shaped economy.  In fact, I would contend that we are seeing the results of that monetary experiment lately with the rise of the DSA in politics and the growing belief by many in the younger generations that they cannot get ahead regardless of their effort, so YOLO and socialism are a better fit.

The Fed is more than a century old and has had unchecked power during that entire period.  Paul Volcker was the last Fed chair to be able to ignore (or withstand) the politics in order to do the right thing and address inflation.  Everybody else has been captured by the organization.  My take is currently the other 18 members of the FOMC all despise Warsh because they all hate President Trump, and Warsh is Trump’s man.  Powell was Trump’s man too, but the Fed culture captured and converted him.  Their biggest problem is Bessent and Warsh are besties and so Warsh has political cover. But they won’t go down without a fight.

My strong view is that ending the ample reserves framework and shrinking the balance sheet is the best thing the Fed can do for the economy and to fight inflation.  It will take time, but that is clearly his goal.  We shall see if he’s successful.  But in the meantime, it appears that all the analysts who got paid a lot of money by Wall Street to do very little are now going to start having to earn their keep and think and figure out things on their own.   And that is a really good outcome.  As I continue to write, less certainty may bring more short-term volatility, but it will reduce the opportunity for excess leverage and reduce market fragility.  And that is something to be sought.

So, how did the market respond?  This chart from wolfstreet.com is annotated beautifully.

The equity market decided they didn’t like uncertainty and are growing increasingly scared there may not be a Fed put anymore.  And so, we saw weakness across the Americas yesterday with US and Canadian indices falling sharply into the close.  Is this the end of the world?  I don’t think so although you might be confused by reading some of the commentary. Overnight, though, things were more mixed with some laggards (China -1.1%, Korea -1.2%, Australia -0.8%, New Zealand -1.5%) and some gainers (Tokyo +0.7%, HK +0.2%, India +0.3%, Indonesia +1.6%).  The continued fighting in Iran (the US launched another series of strikes last night) as well as concerns over the tech sector valuation remains a generic equity market issue right now. 

Europe, though, is in the green this morning (Spain +1.4%, France +0.9%) with Germany and the UK unchanged, as generally better than expected, albeit still soft, GDP data was released this morning as per below:

CountryActualPreviousExpected
France Q/Q0.2%-0.1%0.2%
France Y/Y0.7%0.8%0.8%
Spain Q/Q0.7%0.6%0.6%
Spain Y/Y2.7%2.7%2.5%
Netherlands Q/Q0.4%0.3%0.2%
Netherlands Y/Y1.3%1.4%1.2%
Germany Q/Q0.2%0.4%0.1%
Germany Y/Y0.9%0.7%0.6%
Italy Q/Q0.2%0.3%0.1%
Italy Y/Y1.0%0.8%0.7%
Eurozone Q/Q0.4%0.0%0.2%
Eurozone Y/Y1.0%0.5%0.5%

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Hardly the stuff to quicken your pulse, but better than it could have been.  As to US futures, at this hour (7:15), they are in the green with the NASDAQ (+1.25%) leading the way after MSFT reported excellent numbers last night which has been enough to offset META’s miss.

As to the bond market, after the FOMC, the yield curve steepened significantly with 10-year yields climbing 9bps and 30-year yields rising 11bps at their peak.  the chart below of the 30-year shows it well.  In addition, we continue to hear that the 30-year yield is now its highest since 2008.  Again, I would ask all those complaining, you hated what the Fed did before, what did you expect would happen if it changed?

Source: tradingeconomics.com

European sovereign yields also rose yesterday, albeit not as far, more in the 5bp range, and JGB yields rose 6bps overnight.  The BOE left rates on hold, as expected today with 3 votes to raise rates and 6 to stand pat.  Overnight, JGB yields rose 6bps and other Asian yields rose further.  As usual, the Treasury curve is the leader here.

However, it is interesting to note that 2yr Treasury notes actually fell -5bps yesterday as the market continues to adjust its views of what is going to happen going forward.  Chairman Warsh was explicit in saying that he welcomed market movement doing the Fed’s work for them, and if inflation remains a concern, and it does, yields should rise.  In fact, if the Fed starts to shrink its balance sheet (and remember it is still buying T-bills), I expect the curve to steepen and the front-end rates to decline.

In the commodity market, remarkably despite further US attacks on IRGC military sites, oil (-1.3%) is slipping this morning.  This is another market where things are not necessarily following the previous narrative.  As to metals, they are firmer this morning with gold (+0.3%), silver (+0.9%) and copper (+2.2%) all starting the day in good shape.

Finally, the dollar is softer this morning as the DXY (-0.2%) slips back toward its breakout level of 100.50 once again.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Somebody on Twitter made the point that if the dollar can’t rally amid rising yields, that is a problem.  But my observation, and I believe the numbers back me up, is that the dollar tends to follow short-term yields, like the 2-year, rather than the 30-year bond.  The yen (+0.3%) is having a good day and has backed below 163.00 for the moment taking some pressure off the MOF and the intervention watch.  KRW (+0.6%) continues its remarkable rally which appears to be built on a combination of repatriation of earnings by SK Hynix and Samsung as well as the proceeds from the SK Hynix US IPO, and the strong economic activity plus the BOK’s efforts to internationalize the won.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

But overall, the dollar is under pressure this morning.  and remember, this is not something that the Trump administration worries about, rather they embrace it for its trade benefits.

On the data front, we get a bunch of stuff today as follows:

Initial Claims200K
Continuing Claims1800K
PCE-0.1% (3.7% Y/Y)
Core PCE0.2% (3.3% y/Y)
Q2 GDP (second look)2.1%
Personal Income0.3%
Personal Spending0.3%

Source: tradingeconomics.com

It’s funny, now that Chairman Warsh seems to be de-emphasizing PCE, will it be as important going forward?  Probably still today where a hot number raises the probability of a September hike which currently sits at 63.4%.

Mercifully, there are no Fed speakers today or tomorrow so perhaps we can let the data guide the markets.  Overall, oil still matters a lot, headlines still matter a lot, while the dollar could well slip back into its previous trading range, especially on a soft PCE reading.

Good luck

Adf

The Die Isn’t Cast

Posted on by 
This morning, investors don’t know
Exactly which way things will go
Unlike in the past
The die isn’t cast
So, some pundits will eat some crow

The question is how will the Fed
Explain how they’re looking ahead?
If Warsh has his way
There’s not much they’ll say
But others, more views, want to spread

As market participants prepare for today’s FOMC statement with the potential for a rate hike, as well as the ensuing press conference, I cannot help but marvel at the recent increase in analysts doing their jobs and being forced to think about what can happen.  This is the healthiest thing about this process I believe.  It is also a very different approach than some current FOMC members have taken as they seem quite dismissive of the process.  For instance, in the WSJ article I cited yesterday, I want to highlight this paragraph;

“Governor Christopher Waller, a former economics professor with a reputation for saying what others won’t, put Warsh on the spot, according to several people familiar with the dinner. What’s the point of all this, he asked. Tell me who you’re putting on these groups, he said, and I’ll tell you what they’ll say. There were no brilliant ideas out there that everyone had somehow missed.”  

This is the very definition of hubris, Governor Waller saying he already has all the ideas and, essentially, the task forces are a waste of time.  Every member of the FOMC and every one of the 300+ or 500+ or however many PhDs who work there are Neo Keynesians and all see the world in exactly the same way.  In fact, they clearly believe that their collective view is the ‘only’ view that is correct.  And yet they have failed at their mission statement for more than 5 straight years.  My take is they are all terribly frightened that other ideas will not only be more effective, but that they will demonstrate all the mistakes the current FOMC has made prior to Chairman Warsh’s appointment.

As of 6:45 this morning, the currently priced probability for a hike, as per the Fed funds futures market, is ~38%, an unusual amount of uncertainty on the day of the meeting.  However, as you can see from the table below, there is virtual certainty of a hike in September and a high probability of one in December as well.  Personally, I disagree they will hike at all this year, but that is what makes markets.

Source: cmegroup.com

It has been two years since there has been this much uncertainty ahead of the meeting, and back then it was a question of 25bps or 50bps as a cut, which I would argue is qualitatively different then determining if there would be any action at all.  Otherwise, you need to go back quite a while to see this type of uncertainty, pre-GFC and the beginning of forward guidance.

Meanwhile, the other story of note is the Iranian attack on a US air base in Jordan and renewed fighting in the Gulf region, more than simply in Iran, which has oil prices rebounding sharply from yesterday’s lows, up 5.0% this morning.  The biggest problem with the oil market, from a market perspective, is that it is all headline risk, whether more attacks, peace talks or some other comment from either President Trump or Iran.  The one thing of which I am certain is that this conflict will not last forever and that when it is over, oil prices will fall back sharply and that over time, the Strait of Hormuz will see its transits decrease to ~5% of the global oil market, making it largely irrelevant to the conversation.

Which takes us to the market activity overnight.  Semiconductor companies continue to have some serious problems as SK Hynix reported earnings last night, which, while they beat expectations, their guidance was weaker than expected.  Given what we have seen from the sector lately, it cannot be a surprise that the KOSPI fell another -6.0% last night.  The chart below shows the relative performance of the KOSPI and NASDAQ over the past 5 years, and I have highlighted the peak.  As you can see, the KOSPI massively outperformed (and we thought the NASDAQ was a bubble!) although it is falling back to earth rapidly.  In fact, YTD, it is only higher by 34.4%, after having nearly doubled at the peak.

Source: Bloomberg.com

Elsewhere in Asia, Taiwan (-3.8%) also suffered as did the Nikkei (-1.5%) although other Japanese indices held up just fine.  China (+0.7%) and HK (+2.0%) had solid sessions and most of the rest of the region performed reasonably well.  Remember, once we get past the Fed today, all eyes will turn to Tokyo for the BOJ meeting which comes Friday.

In Europe, it is a mixed picture with concerns over the rising oil price driving some of the concern as we have also seen yields back up a bit.  Spain’s IBEX (-1.5%) is the laggard, but that appears to be a profit taking situation as the market there had rallied to record highs recently.  Elsewhere, France (-0.5%) is soft while the UK (+0.3%) is picking up slightly after some positive housing news and Consumer Credit activity while the DAX is little changed.  As to US futures, at this hour (7:40) they are edging higher, 0.25% or so.

As I mentioned, yields are backing up this morning with Treasuries (+2bps) outperforming vs. European sovereigns which are all higher by between 3bps and 4bps.  This seems entirely a reaction to the rebound in oil prices as there has not been enough other news to matter.

Metals markets are having another session where the relationship with oil is askew.  Gold is unchanged this morning while silver (+1.0%) has edged higher despite the oil rally.  But these metals remain in a downtrend trading in virtual lockstep as per the chart below.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Finally, the dollar is mixed this morning, depending on which counterpart you watch.  The DXY (-0.1%) is a touch softer although there has not been much movement at all in the euro, pound or yen.  In the G10, AUD (-0.5%) is the worst performer after inflation data overnight was cooler than expected and the probability of a rate hike fell even further.  NOK (+0.3%) is responding to oil’s rebound and everything else is minimal.  In the EMG, ZAR (-0.5%) is the laggard du jour on the higher oil prices although in fairness, it is holding its own vs. the gold price, having only declined about 2.5% in the past six months despite the sharp, 25% decline in the price of gold.  

You can be sure that after the FOMC today, all eyes will turn to the BOJ and the yen as the next major discussion point for the FX markets.

And that’s really it today.  The only data is the EIA oil inventories with a small draw expected.  And of course, the FOMC this afternoon.  My take is not much will happen ahead of 2:00, but remember, a large portion of the market has their bet wrong as to the outcome, so if nothing else, expect some volatility in the aftermath.

Good luck

Adf

Far From Dead

Posted on by 
Tomorrow we’ll hear from the Fed
With pundits not sure where they’ll tread
Some call for a hike
So, Warsh can out psych
Inflation that seems far from dead

But others claim hikes he will thwart
Awaiting the task force report
With oil retreating, 
Though some call it fleeting,
The hawks he will likely abort

The one thing we cannot forget
Is all of the outstanding debt
A hike may create
A weaker growth rate
An outcome he’ll surely regret

Let us turn out attention to the FOMC meeting which begins today and culminates in tomorrow’s policy statement and then the press conference that ensues.  On the whole, I would say that Chairman Warsh has already achieved a key objective, market uncertainty about the outcome.  A point I have been making for a very long time is that uncertainty is what creates an anti-fragile market as positioning is inevitably reduced, and more importantly, so is leverage.  And this is true in every market.  While there may have been value in forward guidance at the onset of the GFC such that the Fed wanted to calm markets down, that time is long past.  

Interestingly, perhaps the one individual who is unhappiest is Nick Timiraos at the WSJ, the former Fed whisperer.  He exhibited great power in the market because he was seen as former Chairman Powell’s mouthpiece when Powell wanted to convey information without being directly attributed.  However, it appears that there will be no Fed whisperer in a Warsh Fed, although I suspect even if there is someone, it will not be Powell’s man to whom Warsh turns.  So Timiraos is on the outs anyway.  But you can tell how unhappy he is by the tone of his recent articles like the one last night trying to insinuate that Warsh will not get his way.

At the same time, Bloomberg has an article this morning explaining how Citadel Securities’ chief economist is expecting a hike.  In my opinion, this is how it should be.  Wall Street economists and analysts make enough money that they should be able to do the work themselves and have their own opinions, not merely regurgitate what they hear from the Fed speakers.  (After all, I make no money and have opinions!)

Reiterating my view quickly, I do not see a hike for the following reasons:

  1. Recent data releases point to cooling inflation offering a respite on concerns of runaway prices
  2. Delaying any action until the task forces complete their work and help reset the way the Fed approaches things feels like the goal
  3. The Federal government cannot afford a rate hike as they migrate more and more issuance to the short end of the curve that will directly be impacted.

The counter view basically revolves around the idea that Warsh can ‘earn’ market credibility by hiking now, whether or not it is a policy error.  I don’t think he is concerned about losing credibility at this stage and has set the table, via the task forces, to show he means business when it comes to changing the Fed.  We all find out tomorrow.

As traders await all the news
On earnings, it seems there are views
That AI is losing
Its luster and cruising
Toward outcomes where stocks sing the blues

In my discussion about parabolic markets yesterday, I mentioned the Korean KOSPI index but after last night’s price action, I think a picture is in order.  This from wolfstreet.com.

As I explained, parabolic moves do not end in a range, they fall like the chart above with pullbacks greater than 50% the norm.  This implies that the KOSPI is not done yet, and given the KOSPI is basically two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, both of which are major semiconductor manufacturers, it doesn’t speak well to the semiconductor space in the US either.  Tomorrow, we hear from MSFT and META and then Thursday we get AAPL and AMZN earnings reports.  My take is much is riding on these earnings reports as any indication that growth is starting to slip will feed into my discussion yesterday regarding the second derivative and how that is the driver.  In fact, we saw the announcement yesterday by Nvidia that they were guaranteeing $250 billion of debt for OpenAI to build a new datacenter in Ohio.  At cycle ends, the pace of activity tends to increase as the players want to get things done before the collapse.  I fear that is what we are watching.

Ok, let’s look at markets.  As I’ve already touched on the KOSPI, which fell -10.8% last night, it is not surprising that most of the rest of Asia had a rough go as well.  Tokyo (-4.0%), Taiwan (-4.65%) and China (-2.8%) were the biggest losers overnight although HK (+0.4%) managed to eke out some gains.  In fact, looking across the region, away from the big three mentioned above, it was a more mixed picture.  Indonesia (-0.9%) is having its own problems as the central bank governor resigned and there have been numerous scandals and other cabinet resignations lately undermining both the rupiah (-0.1% and back to multidecade lows) and the stock market there.

As to Europe, given they have no tech sector and the tech sector is the area under the most pressure, I guess we should not be surprised that bourses there are modestly higher this morning, mostly up around +0.3% across the board.  A very pleasant experience compared to the gyrations seen elsewhere.  And US futures at this hour (7:10) are mixed with NASDAQ (-1.1%) suffering while the DJIA (+0.5%) is fine and the SPX is caught in the middle, basically unchanged.

In the bond market, yields continue to edge lower, with Treasuries (-3bps) leading the way and European sovereign yields all lower between -1bp and -2bps. UK gilts (-3bps) are also performing well as the market awaits the BOE’s policy decision on Thursday.  Then JGB yields (-2bps) have slipped in concert as the market awaits the BOJ decision Friday.  At this point, consensus across the board is for no movement, although there has been a discussion regarding the BOJ with some analysts believing a hike is possible.

Turning to commodities, oil (-1.6%) is not the center of attention today for once, and is pushing back toward $80/bbl.  The ongoing decline appears to be based on comments that diplomacy is once again being tried to resolve the Iran situation and the Strait of Hormuz.  Perhaps more surprisingly the metals markets are also falling this morning (Au -1.3%, Ag -2.2%, Cu -1.1%) as their inverse relationship with oil is being tested.  

Finally, the dollar is ever so slightly firmer this morning, but mostly on the order of 0.1% or 0.2%.  AUD (-0.4%) is the worst performer in either G10 or EMG blocs as central bank comments led to a reduction in the probability of a rate hike there next month.  One other thing to note is USDJPY, where, as I type, the market is trading at 163.92, a scant 8 pips from the next big, round number at 164.00, a level almost touched last Thursday (163.99 was the high) but when it trades, it will almost certainly be hailed as an important milestone regarding potential intervention.  I don’t agree with that assessment.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Again, a key feature of BOJ intervention has been an effort to address a volatile market, but as you can see below, while the direction of travel has been consistent, the only volatility has come from BOJ interventions.  Everything else is a slow, steady deterioration of the yen.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

On the data front, there is plenty upcoming this week in addition to the Fed, including PCE on Thursday.

TodayGoods Trade Balance-$100.0B
 Case-Shiller Home Prices1.3%
 Consumer Confidence92.3
WednesdayFOMC Decision3.75% (unchanged)
ThursdayBOE Rate Decision3.75% (unchanged)
 Initial Claims200K
 Continuing Claims1800K
 Q2 GDP2.1%
 Personal Income0.3%
 Personal Spending0.3%
 PCE-0.1% (3.7% Y/Y)
 Core PCE0.2% (3.3% Y/Y)
FridayBOJ Rate Decision1.0% (unchanged)
 Employment Cost Index0.8%
 Chicago PMI56.0
 Michigan Sentiment 54.0

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Obviously, the FOMC meeting will be the big story along with the earnings data, although I imagine that the PCE data may garner some interest for now, at least until we learn what measures of inflation the Fed is going to use going forward.  My fear is the equity market can crack, for now, and that will drive overall trading activity.  As to the dollar, I see no reason for a large move in either direction until we see new policies.

Good luck

Adf

Discussing Their Plight

Posted on by 
Now, all eyes will turn to the chat
When Warsh and his minions, they sat
Round oak polished bright
Discussing their plight
‘Bout prices and jobs and all that

But since they met three weeks ago
Chair Warsh very clearly did show
His view that inflation
Was short in duration
And rate hikes were not apropos

It is getting increasingly difficult to maintain a hawkish Fed view as both the data and the Chairman are working against you.  While we all enjoy the World Cup this week, arguably the biggest market related news will be Wednesday’s release of the Minutes from the last FOMC meeting.  You may recall that in the wake of that meeting, interest rate hawks were in the ascendancy with an October hike fully priced and odds for a second, December, hike priced as well as you can see in the below CME table from June 24th.

Now, in the wake of that meeting and the press conference, the combination of the dot plot showing half the committee expecting a hike this year and the lack of forward guidance along with the succinct statement explaining the Fed would achieve their 2.0% inflation mandate had many analysts expecting a serious tightening cycle upcoming.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the next FOMC meeting, still three weeks hence, the price of oil, and energy in general, accelerated its decline.  Given how much effort was made to explain that the core inflation readings were heading higher because of the impact that energy has on everything, hence the need to hike rates, this has been an inconvenient outcome for the hawks.  Add to that Chairman Warsh’s comments at Sintra, Portugal last week, regarding the easing of inflationary pressures as energy prices decline (oil -0.9% this morning) and futures traders have been adjusting their views pretty steadily as per this morning’s CME table.

While a hike is still assumed by year end, the second one has fallen by the wayside.  Personally, as we continue to see inflation pressures subside alongside energy prices, I expect that not only will we not see a hike this year at all, but a cut by December is viable.

Adding to the downward bias on Fed funds futures was Thursday’s payroll report, where the headline number was softer than expected, although the Unemployment Rate did slip another tick to 4.2%.  I think a key problem with using the Unemployment report as such a critical signal is the fact that since President Trump’s inauguration and the actual closing of the Southern border, as well as the deportation (by both the government and on a self-basis) of somewhere between 2.5 million and 3.0 million according to Grok, the old econometric models of what type of job growth was necessary to maintain solid economic growth are no longer terribly useful. If we throw in the dramatic changes to the economy on the back of the increase in AI as a tool and infrastructure investment, it becomes increasingly difficult to utilize the old models.  Too, one of the main themes from several months ago was that AI was going to replace hundreds of thousands of jobs and unemployment would skyrocket, while now, those ideas are being rethought with many analysts now expecting AI will support more jobs.  Perhaps, the best thing that can come of this change is that markets will no longer radically adjust based on an outdated statistic.

There is still a long way to go before the next FOMC meeting and I doubt that the many task forces will have come to any conclusions yet, but if energy prices continue to decline, and I couldn’t help but notice this WSJ article discussing the sudden glut of oil driving prices lower, and I am growing increasingly confident in my views.

Which takes us to the currency that most needs to see a more dovish FOMC, the yen (-0.6%).  You may remember last week when the yen, after making yet another new low for the move, suddenly reversed course ahead of the July 4thholiday.  While there was no actual intervention, the discussion was that the MOF would no longer discuss their intentions ahead of any intervention and with a holiday weekend seeing reduced liquidity, many anticipated some action.  Well, as you can see from the chart below, that idea has essentially been erased with the yen softening again and pushing back to those lows seen last week.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Bloomberg ran an article this morning about a former Vice Minister from the MOF explaining his view that the yen was undervalued by 20% or so.  If we look at the yen on a PPP basis, the IMF claims the value should be about 93-95 instead of the current 162+.  The Economist’s Big Mac Index calls for 78.00, and by all accounts, visiting Japan is relatively inexpensive for most foreigners.  In fact, I read that Japan was increasing the visa fees to try to discourage the massive amount of tourism as people around the world see it as a cheap destination.

Ultimately, the problem with the yen, in my view, remains that real interest rates remain deeply negative and the government’s spending plans continue to indicate massive deficits as far as the eye can see.  While reduced energy prices are a boon, the yen was falling sharply long before the Iran conflict began.  Policy changes of substance are required, and they are still uncomfortable for domestic politics.  While the pace of the yen’s decline may slow, I still see it weakening going forward.

So, let’s briefly look at markets overnight before closing.  Regarding the dollar, it is broadly stronger this morning with only BRL (+0.3%) finding any support despite their ignominious defeat to the Norwegians.  But modest slippage across the G10 is the rule, -0.1% to -0.2%, while similar movement has been observed in the rest of the EMG space.  For now, the yen remains the only interesting currency.

In the commodity markets, despite oil’s continuing slide, this morning the metals (Au -0.4%, Ag -0.6%, Cu -0.1%) are also under pressure, but that accords with the dollar’s strength.  As long as the dollar remains bid, it appears the metals markets will have difficulty gaining traction.  But if I am correct regarding the Fed and the market turning toward a more dovish view, I would look for the metals to head higher again.

In the bond market, Treasury yields (-3bps) are slipping as the market reopens after the holiday weekend, arguably following through on the softer payroll data.  European sovereign yields are little changed to lower by -1bp amid a quiet market while JGB yields (+4bps) are the notable outlier, arguably as concerns rise over the weakening yen.

Finally, equity markets remain beholden to the semiconductor and AI trade and with the US having been closed on Friday, there was less information for the rest of the world.  But this morning, NASDAQ futures (+0.9%) look like they are set to resume their march higher, dragging the S&P with them.  But this follows a mixed to lower session in Asia (Tokyo 0.0%, China 0.0%, HK +1.1%, Korea -0.5%, India +0.7%, Taiwan -0.5%) as leadership was lacking.  Not surprisingly, European bourses are also mixed this morning (Spain -0.7%, UK -0.2%), Germany and France both +0.1%) as the question of note is how much defense investment is going to be forthcoming from NATO and European nations and how much of that will be spent in Europe.  Perhaps excitement in the US will help global risk appetite as the day wears on.

On the data front, it is a quiet week for numbers with just the below on the docket:

TodayISM Services54.0
TuesdayTrade Balance-$78.0B
WednesdayFOMC Minutes 
ThursdayInitial Claims220K
 Continuing Claims1810K
 Existing Home Sales4.20M

Source: tradingeconomics.com

As well, we hear from three Fed speakers, Waller, Williams and Logan. Now it will be interesting to see if any of them start to discuss the lower energy prices and how that is likely to moderate their inflation concerns.  If we do hear something like that, I expect the Fed funds table above will reflect that quickly.  We shall see.

It is summer, and there is not much new to discuss.  With the US playing Belgium tonight, all eyes will be there, and my take is we are not looking forward to a terribly exciting session today.

Good luck

Adf

40-Year Nadir

Posted on by 
Each day, one more pip
As the yen slides to the next
40-year nadir

The current blame is
The Fed’s recent hawkishness
What if that’s all wrong?

I feel like I must apologize by focusing on the yen again this morning, but quite frankly, there is not that much else to discuss.  And in fairness, it is not as though the yen’s move overnight, edging lower by a further -0.1%, is all that much to write about.  However, the yen has been getting a great deal of press as there is a cadre of analysts who are ‘certain’ that the MOF/BOJ is going to step in and intervene again soon, although I have seen more discussion of how 170 is in the cards as well.

Now, as it is the beginning of the second half of the year, I thought I might look at what I wrote at the beginning of the year regarding the yen to see how it’s going.  And while it is far too early to discern if I was prescient, things are looking pretty good right now.  Below, I have copied my yen discussion from back in January.  You decide if I’m on track.

A turn to the East where the Sun Also Rises
Will teach us that, really, there are no surprises
To date you’ve heard much ‘bout the rise in yen rates
With pundits opining the Carry Trades’ fates
This year, so they say, look for much stronger yen
As local investors buy yen bonds again
Thus, all the hedge funds who’ve been funding their trades
By borrowing yen, and they’ve done so in spades,
Will need to buy back all that Japanese Money
The outcome, for yen shorts, will not be so sunny
But what if this idea of yen heading home
Is wrong?  This implies quite a different syndrome

At this point there’s no sign the government there
Is ready, more spending and debt, to forswear
Instead, what seems likely is more of the same
More government spending in all but its name
So, debt will continue to rise without end
And up to One-Eighty the buck will ascend

So, with that in mind, let’s see what we learned overnight.  First, Japanese Tankan data was released and the economy, or at least the corporate sector, seems in fine fettle.  The below chart of the Large Manufacturer’s Index shows the strongest reading since 2017.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Clearly, the corporate set is not unhappy with the yen’s movement.  Now, there was yet another Bloomberg articlediscussing comments from the current Mr Yen, Atsushi Mimura, and reflecting on the fact that the MOF is in regular contact with Secretary Bessent and the Treasury department and there is no obvious concern on then US’s part with the current level of the yen.  

However, the consensus view is that the yen’s recent decline has been driven by the change in attitude regarding the FOMC.  The idea is that while the market was anticipating Fed rate cuts back in January, the comments by Chairman Warsh (more of which we will hear later this morning from Sintra, Portugal) have turned things around dramatically and we are now pricing a one-third chance of a hike at the end of July, a certain hike in October and another 40% probability of a second hike in December as per the below CME table.

So, if we take this sentiment shift into account, we can look at the last month of trading in USDJPY, which basically encompasses two weeks before the FOMC meeting and two weeks since.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

And, if you do the math, it seems that the yen weakened 0.72% (from 159.45 => 160.60) in the first two weeks of June and 1.32% (160.60 => 162.72) since the FOMC meeting.  I completely agree that modest change in trajectory is the result of this newfound belief in Fed hawkishness.  Of course, you all know that I don’t believe that is what the Fed is going to do, and in fact, my 180 call at the beginning of the year had nothing to do with the Fed raising rates, it was all about deterioration of Japan’s fiscal account.  However, as we learned this morning from Europe, where inflation fell to 2.8% headline, 2.4% core, both much lower than last month and forecasts (good thing the ECB hiked into the energy price shock, right?) we can look forward to at least a few months of softening inflation in the US as well based simply on the ongoing decline in oil prices (-1.0% this morning) and continuing to trend lower as per the below chart.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Softer US inflation numbers are going to undermine the call for rate hikes, and I expect to see those hikes priced out of the markets by the end of July.  That alone should help prevent the yen from collapsing in the short-term, although their long-term problems remain extant.

But one thing to keep in mind is that we are coming up to a holiday weekend in the US with market liquidity impaired.  It would not be surprising to see the MOF step in to markets Friday when liquidity is thin and they will get more bang for their buck.  But the yen is a basket case regardless of US rates.  Like I said, short-term, maybe a dip in USDJPY back toward 155 on the back of intervention, but longer-term, unless they change their fiscal policies, lower the yen will go.

Otherwise, there is not much new to discuss.  Equity markets finished the quarter with their best result in forever, with the NASDAQ rising ~30%.  Seems like it will be hard to repeat that again, and this morning, futures are slightly in the red, about -0.3% or so.  As to the rest of the world (do we really care?) last night saw Tokyo (+0.6%) rally along with India (+0.6%) and Taiwan (+1.9%) but the rest of the region slumped led by Korea (-2.0%) which had been the leader, with China (-0.4%) and HK (-0.6%) also falling and the rest of the regional bourses seeing more red than green.  In Europe, there is more negativity than not with only the DAX (+0.2%) edging higher after their PMI release (50.3) was slightly better than expected, although still weak.  However, the rest of Europe is softer this morning (Spain -0.7%, France -0.65%, UK -0.4%) amid unimpressive PMI results.

In the bond market, yesterday saw US yields pop nearly 10bps in what appeared to be a major futures led move.   Certainly, yesterday’s data releases didn’t indicate dramatic strength in the economy, just that things are still fine.  But things being what they are as the Treasury market drives global bond yields, we did see yields climb everywhere yesterday and have followed on in Europe this morning with sovereign yields higher by between 3bps and 5bps across the board.  JGB yields (+3bps) rose overnight as well, although Treasury yields are little changed this morning.  I feel like this move will be reversed by month end, if not sooner.

In the metals markets, oil’s decline has seen support for both gold (+0.4%) and silver (+0.6%) although copper (-1.6%) is struggling this morning.  Nonetheless, I continue to like the long-term outlook for metals.

Finally, the rest of the dollar story is one of strength for the greenback with the euro (-0.25%) slipping back below 1.1400 and every G10 currency under pressure.  Meanwhile, in the EMG bloc, KRW (-0.7%) is today’s dog, as it approaches its GFC levels as the equity market selling weighed on the currency.  Otherwise, broad dollar strength, but nothing dramatic.

On the data front, ISM Manufacturing (exp 54.0) is coming later this morning as are the EIA oil inventory data. And, of course, Mr Warsh’s speech at 9:00am.  It will be quite interesting to hear what he has to say, as I think it will be the most critical thing for the session, and frankly, I have no idea where he may go.

So, as we head into a holiday weekend, less positioning is better, and choppiness is to be expected.

Good luck

Adf

My House

Posted on by 
Said Kevin, the Fed’s now MY house
And views that we choose to espouse
Will no longer guide
So, when we decide
To move, we expect some to grouse

As well, we are set to review
Our policies all the way through
So, comms will be changed
And data arranged
In truth, it is quite the to-do

This is an evening note as I will be unavailable to write tomorrow morning as we head off to show GCH Nubia’s Take Your Breath Away, aka Marvel to a show.  That is his handler and the judge who awarded him Best of Breed that day.

But not surprisingly, the only thing that really mattered today was the FOMC meeting.  I have to say, having watched the entire press conference I am really impressed with Chairman Warsh.  I love the fact that he shortened the statement and that they are ending forward guidance.  And it was quite interesting that half the reporters’ questions were trying to get guidance about what the Fed may do in the future, despite him repeating that there was no more forward guidance.  My take is Fed reporters are going to have to learn about how markets work and more importantly, market practitioners are going to make up their own minds rather than rely on the Fed to bail them out.  This is all really positive!

The most noteworthy thing was the creation of five task forces to address issues with the way the Fed currently does things on the following subjects:

  1. Communications
  2. Balance Sheet
  3. Data Sources
  4. Productivity and Jobs
  5. Inflation Framework

So, it strikes me that Chairman Warsh is going to look to reprogram the Fed, something that has been sorely in need.  Do not be surprised when much of the commentary is negative on these subjects because those are the folks who benefitted from the old way of doing things.  They now need to change their models and their narratives and they are unhappy.  Another benefit.

The upshot of the meeting was that rates were left on hold and the dot plot, where Warsh did not supply a dot, showed that half the committee thought rates appropriate, and half thought they would be higher by the end of the year.

Of course, this largely jibes with the Fed funds futures market as you can see in the latest table from the CME.

Of course, looking at this table, something seems amiss for September, perhaps there was a large position put in place that drove the market.  At any rate stock markets were unhappy with the major indices slipping -1.0% or more after the FOMC although bonds did very little and commodities continue to show oil slipping while gold and silver rise.  As to the dollar, it rallied pretty much across the board.

It is way too early to anticipate exactly how things are going to play out, but I am encouraged.  I strongly believe a little price volatility is a small price to pay to reduce systemic risk by reducing leverage in the system, and that is very likely to be the outcome if Mr Warsh has his way.  My forecast is the “ample reserves” balance sheet program is going to change before he is done.  If that is the case, I think they will have a real opportunity to get inflation under control.  As well, I believe that prospect will undermine much of the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative.  It truly will be significant.  We shall see.

Good luck

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The Narrative Shatter(ed)

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For months data just did not matter
Twas oil that drove all the chatter
But Friday that changed
As NFP ranged
So high that the narrative shatter(ed)

Now suddenly, eyes have all turned
To data, with many concerned
Their previous views
Will naught but confuse
All efforts, more cash, to be earned

Since the Iran conflict began on the 1st of March, pretty much the only key variable in financial markets has been the price of oil.  As you can see in the chart below, the price gapped higher that Monday morning and has been the major topic of conversation ever since.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

There continues to be a large contingent of analysts who, once the Strait of Hormuz was closed, have been calling for a substantial rise in the price of the stuff, but here we are this morning, back below $90/bbl and lower by -2.3% on the day.  Stories about declining reserves, floating reserves, demand destruction and new production are all available on any given day, and all certainly have facts to support them.  But the big picture, at least so far, has been that the market has found a clearing price between the release of strategic reserves and some amount of demand destruction, which has kept prices in check.

The greatest irony to me is that all the discussion regarding the long-term damage high oil prices are going to inflict on the economy seems to ignore the cardinal rule of commodities; the cure for high prices is high prices.  Last week I highlighted comments from an Exxon SVP about the coming crisis.  If that is Exxon’s corporate belief, they will be drilling like there is no tomorrow as their costs are far below current price levels, let alone the mooted rise to $150/bbl.  However, if we look at the one source of data that discusses drilling, the Baker Hughes oil rig count, you can see in the below chart that while it is a few rigs off its recent lows, there is still limited oil industry belief that the price is going to remain this high for any extended length of time.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

I think what last Friday’s very surprising employment report has done is to change some of the thinking of investors, turning their attention from exclusively oil to the rest of the economy and, now that we are 3+ months into this adventure, to how the rest of the economy is behaving.

This brings us to the two key pieces of information that are upcoming in the US, tomorrow’s CPI report and then next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.  But it also has market participants going back to their more regular processes with discussion of market technicals, earnings, and global policy decisions.  So, let’s look in those areas this morning.

On the policy front, a few things happened overnight.  First, Bank Indonesia raised their base rate 25bps, to 5.50%, in an emergency meeting as the rupiah continues to decline to record lows, although in the wake of the rate hike, it rebounded some 0.8% as per the below chart.  Another data point is the fact that their FX reserves have fallen by >$1 billion in the past month indicating that they are actively intervening to prevent a further decline.  Too, this comes after a 50bp hike just two weeks ago.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Elsewhere on the central bank front, Nikkei news reported that the BOJ will be raising its base rate by 25bps, to 1.00%, the highest level since 1995, when it meets next Monday night (recall, Nikkei has a perfect track record when calling these moves).  This has been widely expected in the market, and so there was no reaction in the FX market, although with USDJPY hovering just above 160.15 this morning, I imagine there is a bit of nervousness at the Ministry of Finance there.  Interestingly, the word from Nikkei is also that they may end the tapering of the balance sheet next year, which certainly detracts from the hawkishness of the rate move.

Moving on to data, the noteworthy datapoint overnight was the Chinese Trade Balance ($105.4B), which while somewhat larger than expected is right in line with recent activity as per the below chart.  It seems that demand for semiconductors has been significant and while trade with the US continues to remain moderate, the rest of the world is getting inundated with Chinese stuff.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

The one other major topic of conversation is the SpaceX IPO set for Thursday and the fact that OpenAI filed to go public as well.  I expect that those discussions are going to be a large part of the equity market narrative for a while yet, but that is well outside the purview of this note.

So, let’s look at market behavior and then see what is on tap for the week data wise.  Friday’s equity declines in the US were like a bad dream, they felt terrible but now it seems everybody has awakened and the world did not end.  Yesterday saw a steady climb from opening lows all day with the NASDAQ closing higher by +0.9%.  The upshot is that Asian markets broadly followed that movement with Japan (+2.2%), China (+1.9%), Korea (+8.2%!), Taiwan (+2.8%) and Indonesia (+7.6%!) all shaking off fears and rebounding sharply.  While HK (-0.4%) and Australia (-0.2%) both lagged, the other regional markets were broadly positive.  I continue to be amazed at the idea that Asia is in the worst energy shape and yet its equity markets are screaming higher.

In Europe, there is also a positive vibe with Spain (+1.2%), France (+0.9%) and Germany (+0.7%) all having solid sessions.  In fact, only the UK (-0.2%) is lagging this morning and not based on any data, but it seems more like some idiosyncratic stories regarding pharma companies there.  As to US futures, at this hour (7:20), they are firmer by 0.5% or so across the board.

In the bond market, yields, which have been moving higher for the past week, have backed off a bit with Treasury yields down -2bps while European sovereign yields have also slipped, mostly by -1bp or -2bps.  Last night, JGB yields (-4bps) fell after the story about the rate hike.  Perhaps investors believe Ueda-san is going to be more hawkish.  But it seems they missed the story about ending QT.

In the commodity space, with oil lower, as discussed above, it is no surprise that gold (+0.5%), silver (+0.6%) and copper (+1.7%) are all higher.  In the gold market, much has been made of the fact that technically, gold closed below its 200-day moving average Friday and has stayed there so far.  If this continues, it will be seen as a negative medium-term signal.  (my chart is showing the 40-week as I cannot get a long-term chart of the 200-day, but it is essentially the same thing.)

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Finally, in the currency markets, the dollar has backed off its recent highs this morning with the DXY (-0.3%) back below 100 and its decline a pretty good proxy for most of the G10 currency’s movements.  This is in no way a rout, but a correction after a strong move higher over the past month as you can see in the below chart.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

On the data front, we see the following this week.

TodayTrade Balance-$56.1B
 Existing Home Sales4.07M
WednesdayCPI0.5% (4.2.% Y/Y)
 Ex-food & energy0.3% (2.9% Y/Y)
ThursdayInitial Claims219K
 Continuing Claims1780K
 PPI0.7% (6.4% Y/Y)
 Ex-food & energy0.4$ (5.3% Y/Y)
FridayMichigan Sentiment46.0

Source: tradingeconomics.com

So, all eyes will be on CPI tomorrow as Fed speakers are now in their quiet period ahead of next week’s meeting.  Certainly, there is very little I have seen that is going to moderate inflation in the near term, but perhaps, if we do see an end to the Iran conflict, that will remove a key price support, although I imagine it will take time to feed through.  But inflation is highly dependent on how much money is around, and that is what makes the FOMC next week so critical.  Until then, it feels like a limited price action day today as we all await CPI tomorrow.

Good luck

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