Naught Left to Wield

The PMI data revealed
The Continent’s yet to be healed
The second wave’s crest
Must still be addressed
And Christine has naught left to wield

It appears as though the market reaction function has returned to ‘bad news is good.’  This observation is based on the market response this morning, to what can only be described as disappointing PMI data from Europe and Japan, while we have seen equity markets higher around the world, bond yields generally declining and the dollar under pressure.  The working assumption amongst the investment community seems to be that as economic weakness, fostered by the much discussed second wave of Covid infections, spreads, it will be met with additional rounds of both fiscal and monetary stimulus.  And, this stimulus, while it may have only a marginal impact on economies, is almost certainly going to find its way into investment portfolios driving asset prices higher.

Unpacking the data shows that France is suffering the most, with Manufacturing PMI declining to 51.0 and Services PMI declining to 46.5, with both of those falling short of market expectations.  Germany, on the other hand, saw Manufacturing PMI rise sharply, to 58.0, on the back of increased exports to China, but saw its Services data decline more than expected to 48.9.  And finally, the Eurozone as a whole saw Manufacturing rise to 54.4 on the back of German strength, but Services fall to 46.2, as tourism numbers remain constrained, especially throughout southern Europe.

This disappointment has analysts reconfirming their views that the ECB is going to increase the PEPP by €500 billion come December, with many expecting Madame Lagarde to basically promise this at the ECB meeting next week.  The question is, will that really help very much?  The ECB has been hoovering up huge amounts of outstanding debt and there is no indication that interest rates on the Continent are going to rise one basis point for years to come.  In fact, Euribor rates fell even further, indicating literally negative concern about rates increasing.  And yet, none of that has helped the economy recover.  While the ECB will offer counterfactuals that things would be worse if they didn’t act as they have been, there is no proof that is the case.  Except for one thing, stock prices would be lower if they hadn’t acted, that much is true.  However, in their counterfactual world, they are focused on the economy, not risk assets.

The message to take away from this information is that the second wave of infections is clearly on the rise in Europe, (>217K new cases reported yesterday), and correspondingly as governments react by imposing tighter restrictions on activities, specifically social ones like dining and drinking, economic activity is going to slow.  At this point, estimates for Q4 GDP are already sliding back toward 0.0% for the Eurozone as a whole.

One last thing, the weakening growth and inflation impulses in Europe is a clear signal to…buy euros, which is arguably why the single currency is higher by 0.25% this morning.  Don’t even ask.

A quick look at the UK story shows PMI releases were also slightly worse than expected, but all well above the critical 50.0 level (Mfg 53.3, Services 52.3, Composite 52.9).  While these were softer than September’s numbers, they do still point to an economy that is ticking over on the right side of flat.  Retail Sales data from the UK was also better than expected in September, rising 1.6% in the month and are now up 6.4% Y/Y.  Despite all the angst over Brexit and the mishandling of the pandemic by Boris, the economy is still in better shape than on the Continent.  One other positive here is that the UK and Japan signed a trade deal last night, the UK’s first with a major country since Brexit.  So, it can be done.  Ironically, in keeping with the theme that bad news is good, the pound is the one G10 currency that has ceded ground to the dollar this morning, falling a modest 0.15%, despite what appear to be some pretty good headlines.

And that is pretty much the story this morning.  Last night’s debate, while more civil than the first one, likely did nothing to change any opinions.  Trump supporters thought he won.  Biden supporters thought he won.  Of more importance is the fact that the stimulus discussions between Pelosi and Mnuchin seem to be failing, which means there will be nothing coming before the election, and quite frankly, my guess is nothing coming until 2021 at the earliest.  If this is the case, the stock market will need to refocus on hopes for a vaccine, as hopes for stimulus will have faded.  But not to worry, there is always hope for something (trade deal anyone?) to foster buying.

So, let’s quickly tour markets.  Asian equities were generally on the plus side (Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng +0.5%), but Shanghai didn’t get the memo and fell 1.0%.  European indices have been climbing steadily all morning, with the DAX (+1.2%), CAC (+1.55%) and FTSE 100 (+1.7%) all now at session highs.  Meanwhile, US futures, which had basically been unchanged earlier in the session, are now higher by 0.3% to 0.5%.

Bond markets are actually mixed at this time, with Treasury yields edging ever so slightly higher, less than 1bp, with similar increases in France and Germany.  The PIGS, however, are seeing demand with yields there lower by between 1bp and 3bps.  As an aside, S&P is due to release their latest ratings on Italian debt, which currently sits at the lowest investment grade of BBB-.  If they were to cut the rating, there could be significant forced selling as many funds that hold the debt are mandated to hold only IG rated paper.  But it seems that the market, in its constant hunt for yield, is likely to moderate any impact of the bad news.

As to the dollar, it is broadly, but not steeply, weaker this morning.  AUD (+0.35%) is the leading gainer in the G10 bloc as copper prices have been rising on the back of increased Chinese demand for the metal.  Otherwise, movement in the bloc remains modest, at best, although clearly, this week’s direction has been for a weaker dollar.

In the emerging markets, most currencies are stronger, but, here too, the gains are not substantial.  HUF and CZK (+0.35% each) are the leaders, following the euro, although there is no compelling story behind either move.  The rest of the bloc is generally higher although we have seen some weakness in TRY (-0.35%) and MYR (-0.3%).  The lira is still suffering the aftereffects of the central bank’s surprise policy hold as many expected them to raise rates.  Rationale for the ringgit’s decline is far harder to determine.  One last thing, there was a comment from the PBOC last night indicating they were quite comfortable with the renminbi’s recent strength.  This helped support further small gains in CNY (+0.2%) and seems to give free reign for investors to enter the carry trade here, with Chinese rates substantially higher than most others around the world.

On the data front here, yesterday saw the highest Existing Home Sales print since 2005, as record low mortgage rates encourage those who can afford it, to buy their homes.  This morning brings the US PMI data (exp 53.5 Mfg, 54.6 Services), but recall, that gets far less traction than the ISM data which is not released until Monday, November 2nd.  As to Fed speakers, we are mercifully entering the quiet period ahead of the next FOMC meeting.  But the message has been consistent, more fiscal stimulus is desperately needed.

As the weekend approaches, I would not be surprised to see the dollar’s recent losses moderated as short-term traders take risk off the table ahead of the weekend.  At this point, having broken through a key technical level in EURUSD, I expect an eventual test of 1.20, but once again, I see no reason for a break there, nor expect that if the dollar does fall to that level, it will be the first steps toward the end of its status as a reserve currency.

Good luck, good weekend and stay safe
Adf

Some Despair

In Germany, data revealed
That growth there’s apparently healed
But data elsewhere
Implied some despair
As problems, porcine, are concealed

Risk is back in vogue this morning as the market appears to be responding positively to a much better than expected PMI reading from Germany (Services PMI 50.6, up from 49.1 Flash reading, Composite 54.7, up from 53.7 Flash) and a modestly better outcome for the Eurozone (48.0 vs. 47.6 for Services, 50.4 vs. 50.1 for Composite) as a whole.  At least that’s the surface story I keep reading.  The problem with this version is that markets in Asia were also highly risk-centric and that was well before the PMI data hit the tape.  Which begs the question, what is really driving the risk narrative today?

When President Trump was infected
The thing that most people expected
Was two weeks before
He’d walk out the door
Explaining he wasn’t affected

A different, and timelier, explanation for today’s positive risk sentiment stems from the ongoing story of President Trump’s covid infection and his ability to recuperate quickly.  While the standing assumption had been that there is a two-week timeline from infection to recovery, the President has consistently indicated that he feels fine, as have his doctors, and the story is that he will be released today from his weekend stay at Walter Reed Memorial Hospital.  In other words, any concerns that attended the announcement of his illness from Friday, when we did see equity markets suffer, is in the process of being unwound this morning.  The rationale here seems to be twofold.  First, the President is set to be back at the White House and in control, something which matters greatly from a national security perspective.  But second, the fact that he, as a 74-year-old man, was able to recover so quickly from the infection speaks to the reduced impact covid is likely to have on the population as a whole.  And arguably, that may even have a bigger impact.  While we continue to hear of new lockdown’s being announced in certain places, NYC, Spain and France to name just three, if the potency of the infection is waning such that it is a short-term event with limited side effects, that could well lead to an increase in confidence amongst the population.  And, of course, confidence is the one thing that the economy is searching for desperately.

The problem is that since virtually everything has become political theater lately, it is difficult to discern the facts in this situation.  As such, it seems hard to believe that overall confidence has been lifted that significantly, at least as of this morning.  However, if President Trump remains active and vigorous this week, it will certainly put a dent into the thesis that covid is incredibly debilitating.  We will need to watch how things evolve.

Interestingly, there is one issue that seems to be getting short shrift this morning, the growing concern that there will be no Brexit deal reached in the next ten days.  Recall that Boris and Ursula had a virtual lunch date on Saturday, and both claimed that a deal was close, but there were a couple of issues left to address.  The two key differences remain the issue of acceptable state aid by the UK government and, the big one, the type of access that European (read French) fishing vessels will have to UK waters.  It seems that French President Macron is adamant that the UK give the French a (large) annual quota and be done with it, while Boris is of the mind that they should agree to meet annually and discuss the issue based on the available fish stocks and conditions.  It also seems that the rest of Europe is getting a bit annoyed at Macron as for them, the issue is not that significant.  This fact is what speaks to an eventual climb-down by Macron, but, as yet, he has not been willing to budge on the matter.  Based on the price of the pound and its recent performance (+0.2% today, +1.0% in the past week), the market clearly believes a deal will be reached.  However, that also foretells a more significant decline in the event both sides fail to reach said agreement.

So, now let’s take a look at the bullishness in markets today.  Asia saw strength across the board with the Nikkei(+1.25%) and Hang Seng (+1.3%) nicely higher and Australia (+2.6%) really showing strength.  (China remains closed virtually all week for a series of national holidays).  European indices are all green as well, albeit not quite as enthusiastic as Asia.  Thus, we have seen solid gains from the three major indices, DAX, CAC and FTSE 100, all higher by 0.7%.  And finally, US futures are pointing to a stronger opening, with current pricing showing gains of between 0.7% and 1.0%.

It should be no surprise that bond marks are under some pressure with 10-year Treasury yields up to 0.71% this morning, higher by 1 basis point on the session and 6 bps in the past week.  In fact, yields are back at their highest level in a month.  European bonds are also broadly softer (higher yields) but the movement remains muted as well, about 1bp where they have risen.  And it should also not be surprising that Italy, Portugal and Greece have seen yields decline, as those three certainly qualify as risk assets these days.

Oil prices are firmer, again taking their cue from the confidence that is infusing markets overall, while precious metals prices are flat.  And finally, the dollar is definitely softer, except against the yen, which continues to be one of the best risk indicators around.  So, in the G10 space, NOK (+0.7%) is the leader, following oil as well as benefitting from the general dollar weakness.  Next on the list is CHF (+0.5%) where data showed ongoing growth in sight deposits, an indication that capital flows continue to enter the country, despite today’s risk attitude.  But broadly speaking, the whole space is firmer.

As to EMG currencies, ZAR (+0.7%) is the leader today, with firmer commodity prices and still the highest real interest rates around keeping the rand attractive in a risk-on environment.  But it is almost the entire bloc with the CE4 (CZK +0.55%, PLN +0.45%, HUF +0.45%) showing their high EUR beta characteristics and MXN (+0.45%) also performing well, again benefitting from both firmer oil prices as well as a weaker dollar.  The one exception here is RUB (-0.5%), which appears to be suffering from the effects of the ongoing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and how much it is going to cost Russia to maintain its support for Armenia.

On the data front, it is a relatively quiet week with only a handful of numbers to be released:

Today ISM Services 56.2
Tuesday Trade Balance -$66.2B
JOLTs Job Openings 6.5M
Wednesday FOMC Minutes
Thursday Initial Claims 820K
Continuing Claims 11.4M

Source: Bloomberg

However, what we lack in data we make up for with Fedspeak, as eight different speakers, including Chairman Powell tomorrow, speak at 13 different events.  What we have heard lately is there is a growing difference of opinion by some FOMC members regarding the robustness of the US economic rebound.  However, despite those differences, the universal request is for further fiscal stimulus.  Given the dearth of data this week, I expect that Chairman Powell’s speech tomorrow morning is likely to be the most important thing we hear, barring a Brexit breakthrough or something else from the White House.

Good luck and stay safe
Adf

Growth Has Now Faltered

The working assumption had been
That governments soon would begin
To lift their restrictions
Across jurisdictions
From Lisbon to well past Berlin
 
But Covid had other designs
By spreading, despite strict guidelines
So, growth has now faltered
And views have been altered
Regarding recovery times
 
Remember how smug so many publications around the world seemed when comparing the spread of Covid in the US and throughout Europe?  The narrative was that despite a devastating first wave in Italy and Spain, nations on the Continent handled the situation significantly better than the chaos occurring in the US.  Much was blamed on the different types of healthcare systems, and of course, there was significant opprobrium set aside for the US president. But a funny thing has happened to that narrative lately, and it was reinforced this morning by the preliminary PMI data that was released.  Suddenly, the growth in Covid cases throughout Europe is expanding to what seems very much like a true second wave, with France and Spain leading the way, each reporting more than 10,000 cases yesterday, while in the US, we continue to see a true flattening of the curve.  The discussion in many European countries is whether or not to impose a second lockdown, as governments there try to decide if their economies and budgets can withstand such an outcome.  (I don’t envy them their choice as no matter the outcome, some people will suffer and scream loudly about the decision.)
 
But a funny thing seems to be happening within economies, despite this government wariness to act, people are making the decisions for themselves.  And so, service businesses are seeing real declines in activity as people naturally avoid restaurants, travel and entertainment companies.  And that’s just what the data shows.  PMI Services surveys showed significantly worse outcomes in France (47.5 vs. 51.5 expected), Germany (49.1 vs. 53.0) and the Eurozone as a whole (47.6 vs. 50.6).  In other words, it appears that people are pretty good at self-preservation, and will not put themselves knowingly at risk without a good reason.  Getting a pint at the local pub is clearly not a good enough reason.
 
For elected policymakers, however, this is the worst of all worlds.  Not only does economic activity contract, for which they will be blamed, but they are not making the decisions for the people, which appears to be their primary motivation in so many cases.  Of course, there is a class of policymakers to whom this outcome is seen as a pure benefit…central bankers.  It is this group who gets to continue to preen about all they have done to support the markets economy, and while the Fintwit community blasts them regularly, the bulk of the population sees them as saviors.  Central banking continues to be a pretty good gig.  Lots of power, no responsibility.
 
Meanwhile, the investment community, including those blasting the central bankers on Fintwit, continue to take advantage of the ongoing central bank largesse and pump asset prices ever higher.  While there was a very short correction back at the beginning of the month, now that merely seems like a bad dream.  And if the data continues to turn lower, the one thing we know is that central banks will step further on the accelerator, announcing greater asset purchase programs, and potentially dragging a few more countries (is the UK next?) into the negative rate world.
 
But that is the world in which we live, whether or not we like it, or agree with the policies.  And as our focus is on markets, we need to be able to describe them and try to understand the evolving trends.  Today, and really this week, that trend continues to see the dollar grind higher despite the fact that we have seen both up and down equity market activity.  In other words, this does not appear to be simply a risk-off related USD rally.  Rather, this appears to be a USD rally built on short-term economic fundamentals.  Remember, FX is a relative game, and even if things in the US are not great, if they are perceived as better than elsewhere, that is sufficient to help drive the value of the dollar higher.  One other thing to note regarding the current market activity is that the hysteria over the dollar’s ‘imminent collapse’, which was all the rage throughout the summer, seems to have completely disappeared. 
 
So, turning to this morning’s session, we find equity markets in the green around the world.  Yesterday’s US rally was followed by a fairly dull Asian session (Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng +0.1%) but Europe has really exploded higher.  It seems that the weakening economic data has convinced investors the ECB will be even more active in their policy mix, thus adding more support to equity markets there.  Hence today’s gains (DAX +1.6%, CAC +1.8%, FTSE 100 +2.3%) are a direct response to the weaker data.  It appears we are in the bad news is good phase for investors.  Not to worry, US futures are also pointing higher, albeit not quite as aggressively as we are seeing in Europe.
 
Bond markets remain somnolent as 10-year Treasury yields are at 0.675%, essentially unchanged from yesterday and right in the middle of the tiny 7 basis point range we have seen since September 1st.  (For those of you who were disappointed the Fed did not announce yield curve control, the reason is that they already have it, there is no need to announce it!)  At the same time, German bunds are unchanged on the day, and also mired within a fairly tight, 10bp range.  But the ongoing winners are Italy and Greece, who have seen their 10-year yields decline by 2 and 3 basis points, respectively today, with Italy’s down more than 25 basis points since the beginning of the month.
 
The strong dollar is having a deleterious impact in one market, gold, which has fallen 0.4% today and is now lower by nearly 10% from the highs seen in early August.  The driving forces of the rally remain in place, with real rates still under pressure and inflation still percolating, but it was a very overcrowded trade that seems to be getting unwound lately.
 
Finally, a look at the dollar vs. its G10 brethren shows that commodity currencies are the worst performers today with AUD and NZD both lower by -0.6%, while NOK (-0.5%) and CAD (-0.2%) complete the list.  However, at this hour, the entire bloc is softer vs. the dollar.  In the emerging markets, one needn’t be prescient to have guessed that MXN (-0.85%) and ZAR (-0.75%) are the leading decliners given the combination of their recent volatility and connection to commodity prices.  RUB (-0.6%) is also a leading decliner, suffering from the commodity market malaise, but frankly, APAC and CE4 currencies are also somewhat softer this morning.  This is all about USD strength though, not specific currency story weakness.
 
On the data front, yesterday’s Existing Home Sales were right on the button at 6.0M, as I mentioned, the highest reading since the middle of 2007.  Today the only thing to see is Markit’s US PMI data, expected to print at 53.5 for Manufacturing and 54.5 for Services.  Given the European readings, it will be quite interesting to see if the same pattern is evolving here.
 
Yesterday we also heard from Chairman Powell, but all he said was that the Fed has plenty of ammo and has done a great job, but things would be better if Congress passed another fiscal stimulus bill.  No surprises there.
 
This morning’s USD strength, while broad-based, is shallow.  Perhaps the biggest thing working in the dollar’s favor right now is the size of the short-USD positioning and the fact that recent price action is starting to warm up the technicians for a more sustained move higher.  I think that trend remains but believe we will need to see some real confirmational data to help it extend.
 
Good luck and stay safe
Adf
 
 

Singing Off-Tune

The Jobless report showed that June
Saw Payroll growth really balloon
But stubbornly, Claims
Are fanning the flames
Of bears, who keep singing off-tune

Markets are quiet this morning as not only is it a summer Friday, but US equity and commodity markets are closed to celebrate the July 4th holiday. In fact, it is curious that it is not a Fed holiday. But with a limited and illiquid session on the horizon, let’s take a quick peak at yesterday’s data and some thoughts about its impact.

The Jobless report was clearly better than expected on virtually every statistic. Payrolls rose more than expected (4.8M vs. exp 3.06M) while the Unemployment Rate fell substantially (11.1% from 13.3%). Happily, the Participation Rate also rose which means that the country is getting back to work. It should be no surprise that this was touted as a great outcome by one and all.

Of course, there was some less positive news, at least for those who were seeking it out. The Initial and Continuing Claims data, both of which are much more current, declined far less than expected. The problem here is that while tremendous progress was made in June from where things were before, it seems that progress may be leveling off at much worse than desired numbers.

It seems there are two things at work here. First, the second wave of Covid is forcing a change in the timeline of the reopening of the economy. Several states, notably Texas and California, are reimposing lockdowns and closing businesses, like bars and restaurants, that had reopened. This is also slowing the reopening of other states’ economies. Second is the pending end of some of the CARES act programs, notably PPP, which has seen the money run out and layoffs occur now, rather than in April. It is entirely realistic that the Initial and Continuing Claims data run at these much higher levels going forward for a while as different businesses wrestle with the right size for their workforce in the new economy.

Odds are we will see a second stimulus bill at some point this summer, but it is not yet a certainty, nor is it clear how large it will be or what it will target. But it would be a mistake to assume that the road ahead will be smooth.

The other potential market impacting news was this morning’s European Services PMI data, which was generally slightly better than expected, but still pointing to slowing growth. For instance, Germany’s Services number was at 47.3, obviously well above the April print of 16.2, but still pointing to a slowing economy. And that was largely the case everywhere.

The point is that nothing we have seen either yesterday or today indicates that the global economy is actually growing relative to 2019. It is simply not shrinking as quickly as before. The implication here is that central banks will continue to add liquidity to their respective economies through additional asset purchases and, for those with positive interest rates still, further rate cuts. Governments will be loath to stop their fiscal stimulus as well, especially those who face elections in the near-term. But in the end, 2020 is going to be a decidedly lost year when it comes to the world’s economy!

On the market side, risk generally remained in demand overnight as Asian equity markets continued to rally (Nikkei +0.7%, Hang Seng +1.0%, Shanghai +2.0%). Will someone please explain to me how Hong Kong’s stock market continues to rally in the face of the draconian new laws imposed by Beijing on the freedom’s formerly available to its citizens? While I certainly don’t have proof, this must be coordinated buying by Chinese government institutions trying to demonstrate that everything there is great.

However, despite the positive cast of APAC markets, Europe has turned red this morning with the DAX (-0.2%), CAC (-0.7%) and FTSE 100 (-0.9%) all under pressure. Each nation has a story today starting with Germany’s Angela Merkel trying to expand fiscal stimulus, not only in Germany, but fighting for the EU program as well. Meanwhile, in France, President Macron has shaken up his entire government and replace most of the top positions including PM and FinMin. Finally, the UK is getting set to reopen tomorrow, and citizens are expected to be ready to head back to a more normal life.

In the bond markets, while US markets are closed, we are seeing a very modest bid for European government bonds, but yields are only about 1 basis point lower on the day. Commodity markets show that oil is once again under pressure, down a bit more than 1% but still hanging onto the $40/bbl level.

Turning to currencies, in the G10, only NOK (+0.4%) is showing any real life today as its Unemployment Rate printed at a lower than expected 4.8% encouraging some to believe it is leading the way back in Europe. Otherwise, this bloc is doing nothing, with some gainers and some losers and no direction.

In emerging markets, the story is of two weak links, IDR (-1.0%) and RUB (-0.9%). The former, which has been falling for more than a week, is suffering from concerns over debt monetization by the central bank there, something that I’m sure will afflict many currencies going forward. As to the ruble, the only explanation can be the oil price decline as their PMI data was better than expected, although still below 50.0. But there are issues there regarding the spread of the infection as well, and concerns over the potential imposition of new sanctions by the US.

And that is really it for the day. With no data or speakers here, look for markets to close by lunchtime, so if you have something to do, get it done sooner rather than later.

Have a wonderful holiday weekend and stay safe
Adf

 

It’s Over

“It’s over”, Navarro replied
When asked if the trade deal had died
The stock market’s dump
Forced President Trump
To tweet the deal’s still verified

What we learned last night is that the market is still highly focused on the trade situation between the US and China. Peter Navarro, the Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, was interviewed and when asked if, given all the issues that have been ongoing between the two countries, the trade deal was over, he replied, “it’s over, yes.” The market response was swift, with US equity futures plummeting nearly 2% in minutes, with similar price action seen in Tokyo and Sydney, before the president jumped on Twitter to explain that the deal was “fully intact.”

One possible lesson to be gleaned from this story is that the market has clearly moved on from the coronavirus, per se, and instead is now focusing on the ramifications of all the virus has already wrought. The latest forecasts from the OECD show trade volumes are expected to plummet by between 10% and 15% this year, although are expected to rebound sharply in 2021. The key is that infection counts and fatality rates are no longer market drivers. Instead, we are back to economic data points.

Arguably, this is a much better scenario for investors as these variables have been studied far more extensively with their impact on economic activity reasonably well understood. It is with this in mind that I would humbly suggest we have moved into a new phase of the Covid impact on the world; from fear, initially, to panicked government response, and now on to economic fallout. Its not that the economic impact was unimportant before, but it came as an afterthought to the human impact. Now, despite the seeming resurgence in infections in many spots around the world, at least from the global market’s perspective, we are back to trade data and economic stories.

This was also made evident by all the talk regarding today’s preliminary PMI data out of Europe, which showed French numbers above 50 and the Eurozone, as a whole, back to a 47.5 reading on the Composite index. However, this strikes me as a significant misunderstanding of what this data describes. Remember, the PMI question is, are things better, worse or the same as last month? Now, while April was the nadir of depression-like economic activity, last month represented the second worst set of numbers recorded amidst global shutdowns across many industries. It is not a great stretch to believe that this month is better than last. But this does not indicate in any manner that the economy is back to any semblance of normal. After all, if we were back to normal, would we all still be working from home and wearing masks everywhere? So yes, things are better than the worst readings from April and May, but as we will learn when the hard data arrives, the economic situation remains dire worldwide.

But while the economic numbers may be awful, that has not stopped investors traders Robinhooders from taking the bull by the horns and pouring more energy into driving stocks higher still. Of course, they are goaded on by the President, but they seem to have plenty of determination on their own. Here’s an interesting tidbit, the market cap of the three largest companies, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon now represents more than 20% of US GDP! To many, that seems a tad excessive, and will be pointed to, after prices correct, as one of the greatest excesses created in this market.

And today is no different, with the risk bit in their teeth, equity markets are once again trading higher across the board. Once the little trade hiccup had passed, buyers came out of the woodwork and we saw Asia (Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng +1.6%, Shanghai +0.2%) and Europe (DAX +2.7%, CAC +1.6%, FTSE 100 +1.2%) all steam higher. US futures are also pointing in that direction, currently up between 0.6% and 0.8%. Treasury yields are edging higher as haven assets continue to lose their allure, with 10-year Treasury yields up another basis point and 2bp rises seen throughout European markets. Interestingly, there is one haven that is performing well today, gold, which is up just 0.15% this morning, but has rallied more than 5% in the past two weeks and is back to levels not seen since 2012.

Of course, the gold explanation is likely to reside in the dollar, which in a more typical risk-on environment like we are currently experiencing, is sliding with gusto. Yesterday’s weakness has continued today with most G10 currencies firmer led by NOK (+0.9%) and SEK (+0.75%) on the back of oil’s ongoing rebound and general optimism about future growth. It should be no surprise that the yen has declined again, but its 0.1% fall is hardly earth shattering. Of more interest is the pound (-0.3%) which after an early surge on the back of the UK PMI data (Mfg 50.1), has given it all back and then some as talk of the UK economy faring worse than either the US or Europe is making the rounds.

In the EMG bloc, the dollar’s weakness is broad-based with MXN and KRW (+0.6% each) leading the way but INR an PLN (+0.5% each) close behind. As can be seen, there is no one geographic area either leading or lagging which is simply indicative of the fact that this is a dollar story, not a currency one.

On the data front in the US, while we also get the PMI data, it has never been seen as quite as important as the ISM data due next week. However, expectations are for a 50.0 reading in the Manufacturing and 48.0 in the Services indices. We also see New Home Sales (exp 640K) which follow yesterday’s disastrous Existing Home Sales data (3.91M, exp 4.09M and the worst print since 2010 right after the GFC.) We hear from another Fed speaker today, James Bullard the dove, but I have to admit that Chairman Powell has everybody on the FOMC singing from the same hymnal, so don’t expect any surprises there.

Instead, today is very clearly risk-on implying that the dollar ought to continue to trade a bit lower. My hypothesis about the dollar leading stocks last week has clearly come a cropper, and we are, instead, back to the way things were. Risk on means a weaker dollar and vice versa.

Good luck and stay safe
Adf

Dire Straits

In Europe, that grouping of states
Now find themselves in dire straits
The PMI data
Described a schemata
Of weakness and endless low rates

In the past, economists and analysts would build big econometric models with multiple variables and then, as new data was released, those models would spit out new estimates of economic activity. All of these models were based on calculating the historic relationships between specific variables and broader growth outcomes. Generally speaking, they were pretty lousy. Some would seem to work for a time, but the evolution of the economy was far faster than the changes made in the models, so they would fall out of synch. And that was before Covid-19 pushed the pace of economic change to an entirely new level. So now, higher frequency data does a far better job of giving indications as to the economic situation around the world. This is why the Initial Claims data (due this morning and currently expected at 4.5M) has gained in the eyes of both investors and economists compared to the previous champ, Nonfarm Payrolls. The latter is simply old news by the time it is released.

There is, however, another type of data that is seen as quite timely, the survey data. Specifically, PMI data is seen as an excellent harbinger of future activity, with a much stronger track record of successfully describing inflection points in the economy. And that’s what makes this morning’s report so disheartening. Remember, the PMI question simply asks each respondent whether activity is better, the same or worse than the previous month. They then subtract the percentage of worse from the percentage of better and, voila, PMI. With that in mind, this morning’s PMI results were spectacularly awful.

Country Manufacturing Services Composite
France 31.5 10.4 11.2
Germany 34.4 15.9 17.1
UK 32.9 12.3 12.9
Eurozone 33.6 11.7 13.5

Source: Bloomberg

In each case, the data set new historic lows, and given the service-oriented nature of developed economies, it cannot be that surprising that the Services number fell to levels far lower than manufacturing. After all, social distancing is essentially about stopping the provision of individual services. But still, if you do the math, in France 94.8% of Service businesses said that things were worse in April than in March. That’s a staggering number, and across the entire continent, even worse than the dire predictions that had been made ahead of the release.

With this in mind, two things make more sense. First, the euro is under pressure this morning, falling 0.6% as I type and heading back toward the lows seen last month. Despite all the discussion of how the Fed’s much more significant policy ease will ultimately undermine the dollar, the short-term reality continues to be, the euro has much bigger fundamental problems and so is far less attractive. The other thing is the ECB’s announcement last evening that they were following the Fed’s example and would now be accepting junk bonds as collateral, as long as those bonds were investment grade as of April 7. This is an attempt to prevent Italian debt, currently rated BBB with a negative outlook, from being removed from the acceptable collateral list when if Standard & Poor’s downgrades them to junk tomorrow. Italian yields currently trade at a 242bp premium to German yields in the 10-year bucket, and if they rise much further, it will simply call into question the best efforts of PM Conte to try to support the Italian economy. After all, unlike the US, Italy cannot print unlimited euros to fund themselves.

Keeping all that happy news in mind, market performance this morning is actually a lot better than you might expect. Equities in Asian markets were mixed with the Nikkei up nicely, +1.5%, but Shanghai slipping a bit, -0.2%. Another problem in Asia is Singapore, where early accolades about preventing the spread of Covid-19 have fallen by the wayside as the infection rate there spikes and previous efforts to reopen the economy are halted or reversed. Interestingly, the Asian PMI data was relatively much better than Europe, with Japanese Services data at 22.8. Turning to Europe, the picture remains mixed with the DAX (-0.3%) and FTSE 100 (-0.3%) slipping while the CAC (+0.1%) has managed to keep its head above water. The best performer on the Continent is Italy (+1.0%) as the ECB decision is seen as a win for all Italian markets. US futures markets are modestly negative at this time, but just 0.2% or so, thus it is hard to get a sense of the opening.

Bond markets are also having a mixed day, with the weakest links in Europe, the PIGS, all rallying smartly with yields lower by between 5bps (Italy) and 19bps (Greece). Treasury yields, however, have actually edged higher by a basis point, though still yield just 0.63%. And finally, the dollar, too, is having a mixed session. In the G10 bloc, the euro and Swiss franc are at the bottom of the list today, with Switzerland inextricably tied to the Eurozone and its foibles. On the plus side, NOK has jumped 1.0% as oil prices, after their early week collapse, are actually rebounding nicely this morning with WTI higher by 12.4% ($1.70/bbl), although still at just $15.50/bbl. Aussie (+0.6%) and Kiwi (+0.75%) are also in the green, as both have seen sharp recent declines moderate.

EMG currencies also present a mixed picture, with the ruble on top of the charts, +1.4%, on the strength of the oil market rebound. India’s rupee has also performed well overnight, rising 0.8%, as the market anticipates further monetary support from the Reserve bank there. While there are other gainers, none of the movement is significant. On the other side of the ledger, the CE4 are all under pressure, tracking the euro’s decline with the lot of them down between 0.3% and 0.5%. I must mention BRL as well, which while it hasn’t opened yet today, fell 2.6% yesterday as the market responded to BCB President Campos Neto indicating that further rate cuts were coming and that QE in the future is entirely realistic. The BRL carry trade has been devastated with the short-term Selic rate now sitting at 3.75%, and clearly with room to fall.

Aside from this morning’s Initial Claims data, we see Continuing Claims (exp 16.74M), which run at a one week lag, and then we get US PMI data (Mfg 35.0, Services 30.0) at 9:45. Finally at 10:00 comes New Home Sales, which are forecast to have declined by 16% in March to 644K.

The big picture remains that economic activity is still slowing down around the world with the reopening of economies still highly uncertain in terms of timing. Equity markets have been remarkable in their ability to ignore what have been historically awful economic outcomes, but at some point, I fear that the next leg lower will be coming. As to the dollar, it remains the haven of choice, and so is likely to remain well bid overall for the foreseeable future.

Good luck and stay safe
Adf

 

Significant Woe

The data continue to show
A tale of significant woe
Last night’s PMIs
Define the demise
Of growth; from Spain to Mexico

Another day, another set of data requiring negative superlatives. For instance, the final March PMI data was released early this morning and Italy’s Services number printed at 17.4! That is not merely the lowest number in Italy’s series since the data was first collected in 1998, it is the lowest number in any series, ever. A quick primer on the PMI construction will actually help show just how bad things are there.

As I’ve written in the past, the PMI data comes from a single, simple question; ‘are things better, the same or worse than last month?’ Each answer received is graded in the following manner:

Better =      1.0
Same =        0.5
Worse =      0.0

Then they simply multiply the number of respondents by each answer, normalize it and voila! Essentially, Italy’s result shows that 65.2% of the country’s services providers indicated that March was worse than February, with 34.8% indicating things were the same. We can probably assume that there was no company indicating things were better. This, my friends, is not the description of a recession; this is the description of a full-blown depression. IHS Markit, the company that performs the surveys and calculations, explained that according to their econometric models, GDP is declining at a greater than 10% annual rate right now across all of Europe (where the Eurozone Composite reading was 26.4). In Italy (Composite reading of 20.2) the damage is that much worse. And in truth, given that the spread of the virus continues almost unabated there, it is hard to forecast a time when things might improve.

It does not seem like a stretch to describe the situation across the Eurozone as existential. What we learned in 2012, during the Eurozone debt crisis, was that the project, and the single currency, are a purely political construct. That crisis highlighted the inherent design failure of creating a single monetary policy alongside 19 fiscal policies. But it also highlighted that the desire to keep the experiment going was enormous, hence Signor Draghi’s famous comment about “whatever it takes”. However, the continuing truth is that the split between northern and southern European nations has never even been addressed, let alone mended. Germany, the Netherlands and Austria continue to keep fiscal prudence as a cornerstone of their government policies, and the populations in those nations are completely in tune with that, broadly living relatively frugal lives. Meanwhile, the much more relaxed atmosphere further south continues to encourage both government and individual profligacy, leading to significant debt loads across both sectors.

The interesting twist today is that while Italy and Spain are the two hardest hit nations in Europe regarding Covid-19, Germany is in third place and climbing fast. In other words, fiscal prudence is no protection against the spread of the disease. And that has led to, perhaps, the most important casualty of Covid-19, German intransigence on debt and deficits. While all the focus this morning is on the proposed 10 million barrel/day cut in oil production, and there is a modest amount of focus on the Chinese reduction in the RRR for small banks and talk of an interest rate cut there, I have been most amazed at comments from Germany;s Heiko Maas, granted the Foreign Minister, but still a key member of the ruling coalition, when he said, regarding Italy’s situation, “We will help, we must help, [it is] also in our own interest. These days will remind us how important it is that we have the European Union and that we cannot solve the crisis acting unilaterally. I am absolutely certain that in coming days we’ll find a solution that everyone can support.” (my emphasis). The point is that it is starting to look like we are going to see some significant changes in Europe, namely the beginnings of a European fiscal policy and borrowing authority. Since the EU’s inception, this has been prevented by the Germans and their hard money allies in the north. But this may well be the catalyst to change that view. If this is the case, it is a strong vote of confidence for the euro and would have a very significant long-term impact on the single currency in a positive manner. However, if this does not come about, we could well see the true demise of the euro. As I said, I believe this is an existential moment in time.

With that in mind, it is interesting that the market has continued to drive the euro lower, with the single currency down 0.5% on the day and falling below 1.08 as I type. That makes 3.3% this week and has taken us back within sight of the lows reached two weeks ago. In the short term, it is awfully hard to be positive on the euro. We shall see how the long term plays out.

But the euro is hardly the only currency falling today. In fact, the dollar is firmer vs. all its G10 counterparts, with Aussie and Kiwi the biggest laggards, down 1.2% each. The pound, too, is under pressure (finally) this morning, down 1.0% as there seems to be some concern that the UK’s response to Covid-19 is falling short. But in the end, the dollar continues to perform its role of haven of last resort, even vs. both the Swiss franc (-0.35%) and Japanese yen (-0.6%).

EMG currencies are similarly under pressure with MXN once again the worst performer of the day, down 2.1%, although ZAR (-2.0%) is giving it a run for its money. The situation in Mexico is truly dire, as despite its link to oil prices, and the fact that oil prices have rallied more than 35% since Wednesday, it has continued to fall further. AMLO is demonstrating a distinct lack of ability when it comes to running the country, with virtually all his decisions being called into question. I have to say that the peso looks like it has much further to fall with a move to 30.00 or even further quite possible. Hedgers beware.

Risk overall is clearly under pressure this morning with equity markets throughout Europe falling and US futures pointing in the same direction. Treasury prices are slightly firmer, but the market has the feeling of being ready for the weekend to arrive so it can recharge. I know I have been exhausted working to keep up with the constant flow of information as well as price volatility and I am sure I’m not the only one in that situation.

With that in mind, we do get the payroll report shortly with the following expectations:

Nonfarm Payrolls -100K
Private Payrolls -132K
Manufacturing Payrolls -10K
Unemployment Rate 3.8%
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% (3.0% Y/Y)
Average Weekly Hours 34.1
Participation Rate 63.3%
ISM Non- Manufacturing 43.0

Source: Bloomberg

But the question remains, given the backward-looking nature of the payroll report, does it matter? I would argue it doesn’t. Of far more importance is the ISM data at 10:00, which will allow us to compare the situation in the US with that in Europe and the rest of the world on a more real-time basis. But in the end, I don’t think it is going to matter too much regarding the value of the dollar. The buck is still the place to be, and I expect that it will continue to gradually strengthen vs. all comers for a while yet.

Good luck, good weekend and stay safe
Adf

Set For a Rout

In case you still had any doubt
That growth has encountered a drought
The readings this morning
Gave adequate warning
That markets are set for a rout

You may all remember the Chinese PMI data from last month (although granted, that seems like a year ago) when the official statistic printed at 35.7, the lowest in the history of the series. Well, it was the rest of the world’s turn this month to see those shockingly low numbers as IHS Markit released the results of their surveys for March. Remember, they ask a simple question; ‘are things better, the same or worse than last month?’ Given the increasing spread of Covid-19 and the rolling shut-downs across most of Europe and the US in March, it can be no surprise that this morning’s data was awful, albeit not as awful as China’s was in February. In fact, the range of outcomes in the Eurozone was from Italy’s record low of 40.3 to the Netherlands actually printing at 50.5, still technically in expansion phase. The Eurozone overall index was at 44.5, just a touch above the lows reached during the European bond crisis in 2012. You remember that, when Signor Draghi promised to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. The difference this time is that was a self-inflicted wound, this problem is beyond the ECB’s control.

The current situation highlights one of the fundamental problems with the construction of the Eurozone, a lack of common fiscal policy. While this has been mentioned many times before, it is truly coming home to roost now. In essence, with no common fiscal policy, each of the 19 countries share a currency, but make up their own budgets. Now there are rules about the allowed levels of budget deficits as well as debt/GDP ratios, but the reality is that no country has really changed their ways since the Union’s inception. And that means that Germany, Austria and the Netherlands remain far more frugal than Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. And the people of Germany are just not interested in paying for the excesses of Italian or Spanish activities, as long as they have a choice.

This is where the ECB can make a big difference, and perhaps why Madame Lagarde, as a politician not banker, turns out to have been an inspired choice for the President’s role. Prior to the current crisis, the ECB made every effort to emulate the Bundesbank, and was adamant about preventing the monetization of national debt. But in the current situation, with Covid-19 not seeming to respect the German’s inherent frugality, every nation is rolling out massive spending packages. And the ECB has pledged to buy up as much of the issued debt as they deem necessary, regardless of previous rules about capital keys and funding. Thus, ironically, this may be what ultimately completes the integration of Europe. Either that or initiates the disintegration of the euro. Right now, it’s not clear, although the euro’s inability to rally, despite a clear reduction in USD funding pressures, perhaps indicates a modestly greater likelihood of the latter rather than the former. In the end, national responses to Covid-19 continue to truly hinder economic activity and there seems to be no immediate end in sight.

With that as our preamble, a look at markets as the new quarter dawns shows that things have not gotten any better than Q1, at least not in the equity markets. After a quarter where the S&P 500 fell 20.0%, and European indices all fell between 25% and 30%, this morning sees equity markets under continued pressure. Asia mostly suffered (Nikkei -4.5%, Hang Seng -2.2%) although Australian stocks had a powerful rally (+3.6%) on the strength of an RBA announcement of A$3 billion of QE (it’s first foray there). Europe, meanwhile, has seen no benefits with every market down at least 1.75% (Italy) with the CAC (-4.0%) and DAX (-3.6%) the worst performers on the Continent. Not to be left out, the FTSE 100 has fallen 3.8% despite UK PMI data printing at a better than expected 47.8. But this is a risk-off session, so a modestly better than expected data print is not enough to turn the tide.

Bond markets are true to form this morning with Treasury yields down nearly 7bps, Bund yields down 3bps and Gilt yields lower by 6bps, while both Italian (+5bps) and Greek (+9bps) yields are rising. Bond investors have clearly taken to pricing the latter two akin to equities rather than the more traditional haven idea behind government bonds. And a quick spin through the two most followed commodities shows gold rising 0.8% while oil is split between a 3.5% decline in Brent despite a 0.5% rally in WTI.

And finally, in the FX world, the dollar continues to be the biggest winner, although we have an outlier in Norway, where the krone is up by 0.8% this morning, despite the weakness in Brent crude and the very weak PMI data. Quite frankly, looking at the chart, it appears that the Norgesbank has been in once again supporting the currency, which despite today’s gains, has fallen by nearly 9% in the past month. Otherwise, in the G10 space, CAD is the worst performer, down 1.4%, followed closely by AUD (-1.0%) as commodity prices generally remain under pressure. In fact, despite its 0.25% decline vs. the dollar, the pound is actually having a pretty good session.

In EMG markets, it is HUF (-2.5%) and MXN (-2.1%) which are the leading decliners with the former suffering on projected additional stimulus reducing the rate structure there, while the peso continues to suffer from weak oil prices and the US slowdown. But really, the entire space is lower as well, with APAC and EMEA currencies all down on the day and LATAM set to slide on the opening.

On the data front this morning, we see ADP Employment (exp -150K), which will be a very interesting harbinger of Friday’s payroll data, as well as ISM Manufacturing (48.0) and Prices Paid (44.5). We already saw the big hit in Initial Claims last week, and tomorrow’s is set to grow more, so today is where we start to see just how big the impact on the US economy Covid-19 is going to have. I fear, things will get much worse before they turn, and an annualized decline of as much as 10% in Q1 GDP is possible in my view. But despite that, there is no indication that the dollar is going to be sold in any substantial fashion in the near term. Too many people and institutions need dollars, and even with all the Fed’s largesse, the demand has not been sated.

Volatility will remain with us for a while yet, so keep that in mind as you look for hedging opportunities. Remember, volatility can work in your favor as well, especially if you leave orders.

Good luck and stay safe
Adf

This Terrible Blight

The data from China last night
Showed PMI looking alright
But what does this mean?
Has China now seen
The end of this terrible blight?

Many pundits were both shocked and amazed when China’s PMI data was released last night and printed back above 50 (Manufacturing 52.0 and Composite 53.0), given the ongoing global economic shutdown. But if you simply consider the question asked to create the statistic; are things worse, the same or better than last month, it seems pretty plausible that things were at least the same as the previous month when commerce on the mainland shut down. And arguably, given the word that some proportion of the Chinese economy is starting to get back to work, the idea that a small proportion of respondents indicated improvement is hardly shocking. Instead, what I think we need to do is reconsider exactly what the PMI data describes.

Historically, when the global economy was functioning on, what we used to consider, a normal basis, the difference of a few tenths of a percent were seen as important. They seemed to tell a story of marginal improvement or decline on an early basis. Perhaps this was a false precision, but it was clearly the accepted narrative. The PMI data remains a key input into many econometric models, and those tenths were enough to alter forecasts. But that was then. As we all are abundantly aware, today’s economy and working conditions are dramatically different than they were, even in January. And so, the key question is; does the data we used to focus on still tell us the same story it did? Forward looking survey data is going to be far more volatile than in the past given the extraordinary actions taken by governments around the world. Quarantine, shelter-in-place and working from home will require a different set of measurements than the pre-Covid commuting world with which most of us are familiar.

Certainly, measurements of employment and consumption will remain key, but things like ISM, Fed surveys and productivity measurements are going to be far more suspect in the information they provide. After all, when the lockdowns end, and the surveys shoot higher, while the relative gains will be large, we are still likely to be in a much slower and different economic situation than we were back in January. A major investment bank is now forecasting Q2 GDP to decline by 34% annually, while Q3 is forecast to rebound 19%. The total story is one of overall decline, but the Q3 story will certainly be played up for all it is worth as the fastest growth in US history. My point is, be a little careful with what the current data is describing because it is not likely the same things we are used to from the past. The new narrative has yet to form, as the new economy has yet to emerge. While we can be pretty sure things will be different, we just don’t yet know exactly in which sectors and by how much. In other words, data will continue to be uncertain for a while, and its impact on markets will be confusing.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at where things stand this morning. After a very strong start to the week yesterday, at least on the equity front, things are a bit more mixed today. Asian markets saw both strength (Hang Seng + 1.8%) and weakness (Nikkei -0.9%), although arguably there were a few more winners than losers. Interestingly, despite the blowout Chinese PMI data, Shanghai only rose 0.1%. It seems the equity market there had a reasonable interpretation of the data. In Europe, meanwhile, things are generally positive, but not hugely so, with the DAX and FTSE 100 both higher by 0.8%, although the CAC has edged lower by 0.1%. at this time, US futures are pointing modestly higher and well off the earlier session highs.

Bond markets suffered yesterday on the back of the equity rally, as risk assets had some short-term appeal, but this morning the picture is more mixed. Treasury yields have fallen by 4bps, but Bund yields are little changed on the day. And in the European peripheral markets, Italian BTP’s are seeing yields edge higher by 1bp while Greek yields have softened by 4bps. I think today’s price action has much more to do with the fact it is month and quarter end, and there is a lot of rebalancing of portfolios ongoing, rather than as a signal of future economic/intervention activity.

In the FX market, though, the dollar continues to reign supreme with only NOK able to rally this morning in the G10 space as oil prices have rebounded sharply. A quick peek there shows WTI +7.5% and Brent +3.9%, although the price of oil remains near its lowest levels since 2001’s recession. But away from NOK, the dollar is quite firm with AUD under the most pressure, down 1.4% after some awful Australian confidence data. Clearly, the surprisingly positive Chinese data had little impact. But the euro has fallen 1.0% as concerns grow over Italy’s ability to repay its debt and what that will mean for the rest of the continent with respect to picking up the tab. Even the yen is under pressure today, perhaps on the news that the government is preparing a ¥60 trillion support package, something that will simply expand their already remarkable 235% debt/GDP ratio.

In the emerging markets, it should be no surprise that Russia’s ruble is top dog today, +1.3% on the oil rebound. Meanwhile, ZAR and KRW have also moved higher by 0.5% each with the rand benefitting from a massive influx of yield seekers as they auctioned a series of debt with yields ranging from 7.17% for 3-year to 11.37% for the 10-year variety. Meanwhile, in Seoul, the results of the USD swap auctions showed that liquidity there is improving, meaning there is less pressure on the currency. On the downside, CE4 currencies are under the gun as they track the euro lower, with the entire group down by between 0.8% and 1.3%. Perhaps the biggest disappointment today is MXN, which despite the big rebound in oil is essentially unchanged today after a 2% decline yesterday. The peso just cannot seem to get out of its own way, and as long as AMLO continues to be seen as ineffective, it is likely to stay that way.

There is some data due this morning, with Case Shiller Home Prices (exp 3.23%) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (110.0 down from 130.7), but it is not clear it will have much impact. Yesterday’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index was released at -70, the worst print in its 16-year history, but one that cannot be surprising given the nationwide shutdowns and problems in the oil patch. I don’t see today’s data having an impact, and instead, expect that the focus will be on the next bailout package, the implementation of this one, and month-end rebalancing. It is hard to make the case that the dollar will decline in this environment, but that remains a short-term view.

Good luck
Adf

At Loggerheads

While yesterday there was no hope
The global economy’d cope
With Covid-19
Today what we’ve seen
Is those fears were just a mere trope

Meanwhile as the virus still spreads
Investors are at loggerheads
Should bulls buy the dip?
Can bears get a grip?
I guess it’s all up to the Fed(s)

This morning there is a tentative truce in markets between those terrified of a global pandemic and those who have been trained to BTFD (Buy the f***ing dip). Of course, the dip buyers have been the big winners over the past decade, which drives the real question, is this time different? The difficulty in answering this question is due to the fact that the last time there was truly a global pandemic, the Spanish flu of 1918; central banks did not control the economy. In fact, the Fed was just 5 years old at the time, and still coming to terms with its role in the US economy. Ultimately, the problem is that despite the extraordinary information dissemination capabilities that exist in the modern world, where every type of news is available in multiple formats almost instantly, nobody really has any idea what is actually happening in China. Do the infection and fatality numbers they release each day have any resemblance to reality? Can’t really tell. What we do know is that large portions of China remain essentially under lockdown, with Hubei province at a virtual standstill. The tension between preventing the spread of the disease and preventing a collapsing economy is extreme in Beijing. Alas, it is not hard to believe that in the end, President Xi will choose growth over health.

Nonetheless, yesterday’s proximate cause of the market rout seemed to be the sudden uptick in cases in Italy, which was a clear demonstration that the situation was not nearly under control. Although all markets remain tentative this morning, there have been no major dislocations…yet. Even so, for the time being, Covid-19 is going to be the primary story driving daily market activity.

One thing we learned yesterday was that there is growing dissention at the Fed as the hawks, led by Loretta Mester, are nowhere near convinced that cutting interest rates will do anything to solve a medical problem, while the doves, led by Neel Kashkari, think a 25bp cut, at least, is appropriate right now. With the next FOMC meeting slated for March 18, we still have nearly 3 weeks for this conversation to play out. And of course, so much will depend on just what happens with Covid-19. Wider disruption of economic activity due to further quarantines and lock-downs will almost certainly see further monetary policy easing, whether it is useful or not, as central bankers will not want to be seen doing ‘nothing’.

Another interesting thing to watch for is this week’s February Chinese PMI data, due to be released on Thursday night. It is quite interesting that Manufacturing PMI is currently forecast to fall only to 45.1 given the near total shutdown of Chinese activity since the Lunar New Year. Consider that the PMI questions ask if activity levels were “higher, the same or lower than in the prior month.”1 Can anyone asked those questions in China claim that activity was higher than the previous month? It beggars belief that the index can be anywhere near 45. Rather one would expect it to approach zero! My point is that depending on what gets released, it will help us further understand the reliability of the Chinese economic data.

Keeping this in mind, it is extremely difficult to have a strong view on anything right now. Generally speaking, haven assets remain better bid, although this morning’s price action is nowhere near as impressive as yesterday’s. For example, Treasury yields are little changed, still just below 1.37% (and just above the record low of 1.34% set in 2016), although German bund yields have fallen a further 3bps this morning and are sitting at -0.51%. We have also seen a bit of discrimination in the European government bond markets as the PIGS see their bond yields rise this morning, clearly not feeling the haven love of bunds or Treasuries. Also on the haven front, gold prices, which rallied sharply yesterday, trading up nearly 3% at one point, have given back about 0.75% this morning.

In equity land, the Nikkei, which had been closed Monday, fell 3.3% in a catchup move, but the rest of APAC markets had a more mixed performance. Australia’s ASX 200 fell 1.6%, but the Kospi in Korea rallied 1.2%. Even China had mixed results with Shanghai falling 0.6% while Shenzhen rose 0.5%. All told, fear was not quite as rampant overnight. But this morning, European shares, which had started the session in the green, have since turned lower led by Spain’s IBEX (-1.15%), but closely followed by the FTSE 100 (-0.85%), CAC (-0.7% and DAX (-0.6%). In other words, fear is once again creeping into investor’s minds. At this point in the session, US futures are pointing slightly higher, but only about 0.2%. Obviously we will be watching US markets closely when they open.

In the FX world, it has also been a bit of a mixed picture, with the pound actually today’s big winner, +0.3%, as it appears cable options traders are driving the move higher after getting paid out of substantial amounts of short-dated volatility by the leveraged community. The yen has also gained today after a very impressive move yesterday. When I wrote, the yen had just edged higher by 0.25%, but it was in great demand during the NY session and closed nearly a full percent stronger. On the down side, NZD and SEK are the leading decliners, down 0.3% and 0.2% respectively with the former reacting to a story about the RBNZ easing policy further while the latter suffers as a cross play SEKJPY with punters viewing the krone as the most vulnerable currency to the virus.

In the EMG space, KRW (+0.85%) is today’s big winner, following the Kospi higher on hopes that the worst aspects of the virus have passed. On the flipside, RUB is down by 2.0% in a catch up move after being closed yesterday for a bank holiday. Otherwise, the rest of the bloc is +/- 0.2%.

On the data front this morning we see Case-Shiller Home prices (exp 2.8%) and Consumer Confidence (132.1), neither of which seems likely to impact FX. Arguably, this is still a virus and equity driven market, and that is where to look to get the fear barometer and consider where the dollar may move for the rest of the day.

Good luck
Adf

1. https://cdn.ihs.com/www/pdf/1218/IHS-Markit-PMI-Introduction.pdf