As Covid infections expand
Worldwide, and more meetings get banned
The worry is that
Growth’s surge will fall flat
And stocks will not rise on command
But Monday’s price action was fleeting
As dip buyers now are competing
To add to their stash
Of low value trash
Before the Fed’s next monthly meeting
Come with me on a journey to the past. A time when investors considered risks as well as rewards and if those risks seemed elevated, those very same investors would consider actually selling stocks and running to the (relative) safety of the government bond market. Risks could include slower growth, higher inflation or even the recurrence of a global pandemic. Naturally, under circumstances of that nature, investors displayed caution. Now, fortunately, situations like that don’t seem to happen very often anymore, although if you think back to…Monday, that seemed to be the developing narrative. Ahh, but as Dinah Washington crooned so fantastically in 1959, What a Difference a Day Makes.
Monday’s price action and narrative might as well have occurred in 2008 during the GFC given how long ago it seems and how short memories have become over time. So, all of the angst regarding the spread of the delta variant and additional lockdowns around the world, as well as the impact that would have on the global growth scenario has essentially been expunged from the record and it’s now all sunshine, lollipops and rainbows going forward. At least, that’s the way it seems this morning.
Yesterday saw a significant rebound in the equity market and a sharp sell-off in Treasury and other government bond markets as the bargain hunters were out in force taking advantage of the 2% dip seen Monday. After all, it’s not as though there was any new news released to encourage a change in view. The only data release was Housing Starts which were marginally better than expected, but then everybody knows the housing market is en fuego. With both the Fed and ECB in their quiet periods ahead of upcoming meetings, there were no central bank statements to help ameliorate concerns that had become manifest on Monday. Which leads to the conclusion that nothing in the zeitgeist has changed; buy the dip because there is no alternative remains the single most powerful underlying force in markets today.
Which brings us to this morning’s situation, where the rally continues in equity markets, bond markets continue to retreat from their recent highs and commodity markets are getting their feet under themselves again. What about inflation you may ask? Bah, old news. Clearly it is transitory as there hasn’t been a higher than expected print in more than a week! (Well, that’s not strictly true as this morning South African CPI was released at a higher than expected 4.9% which has pushed back on the growing narrative that the SARB might be able to back off its mooted tightening.) But South Africa is insignificant in the broad scheme of things, so the combination of increasing infections there along with rioting over the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma has just not been enough to concern investors in other markets.
One has to give props to the central banking community for their ability to convince economists, politicians and investors that the worsening inflation situation is really a very short-term blip, and that the big problem remains deflation. Of course, it is not hard to convince politicians once they understand this stance allows for more spending. Economists tend to be lost in their models so aren’t that important anyway. Investors, however, have historically taken these things with a bit more skepticism, and the fact that the market is responding in exactly the manner central banks want is the truly surprising outcome. Nothing has changed my view that this entire house-of-cards-like market will come tumbling down at some point, but it is very clear that as John Maynard Keynes explained in 1924, “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” In other words, calling the timing of any significant pullback is a fool’s errand, and I will endeavor not to be foolish today.
As to markets today, it is very clear by now that risk is back on. Equities in Asia were generally higher (Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai +0.7%) and are quite strong in Europe (DAX +0.9%, CAC +1.4%, FTSE 100 +1.7%). US futures you ask? Generally higher as well, with DOW +0.4%, although NASDAQ futures are actually -0.1% at this hour. The rotation into value seems to be this morning’s view.
The bond market is behaving as expected with investors quickly getting out of their recently added long positions. Treasury yields are higher by 2.2bps, while Bunds, OATs and Gilts are all about 1.5bps higher this morning. There is certainly no reason to own bonds when stocks are on the move!
Commodity markets are mixed this morning, although the most important of the bunch, oil, is higher by 1.5% and continuing to rebound from Monday’s substantial declines. That price action on Monday was clearly technical in nature and shook out a great many weak hands. The case for higher oil prices remains strong in my view, as the lack of capex in the sector as well as the ESG efforts to starve the industry of capital will result in a supply demand mismatch over time that will only resolve itself with higher prices. As to the rest of the commodity space, precious metals are mixed (Au -0.5%, Ag 0.7%), as are base metals (Cu -0.2%, al +0.2%) and Ags (Soybeans -0.4%, Wheat +0.4%). In other words, there is no directional bias here.
Finally, in the currency markets, movement has been a bit more muted overall, and mixed just like elsewhere. In the G10 bloc, NOK (+0.35%) is following oil higher and JPY (-0.25%) is seeing its haven status work against it as it reverts to form, with the rest of the bloc +/- 0.1% meaning there is nothing to discuss. In the emerging markets, there is a bit more weakness with ZAR (-0.4%) still suffering from the increased spread of Covid as are KRW (-0.3%) and the CE4 (HUF -0.3%, CZK -0.3%, PLN -0.25%). On the plus side there is only CNY (+0.2%) which was supported by comments from the central bank claiming they will keep the yuan “basically stable”.
There is no data and no speakers today which means that the FX market is left to watch other markets for its cues. With risk back in vogue, I expect that the dollar could cede some ground against the majors, but the ongoing issues throughout different emerging markets are likely to continue to weigh on currencies in that sector.
Good luck and stay safe