As always, when Chairman Jay speaks Each hawk and each dove caref’lly seeks The words that best suit Their story, and mute All others with varied techniques
Every hawk in the market heard these words, right at the beginning of Powell’s speech Friday morning and rejoiced [emphasis added], “we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”
However, the doves didn’t need to wait long to find their counterpoint, with Powell giving them fodder in the very next paragraph, [emphasis added], “given how far we have come, at upcoming meetings we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks.”
So, which is it? Here is the link to the speech, so you can make up your own mind if you so choose but be prepared, if you listen to the punditry, you will hear both sides and likely no clear decision. With that in mind, my take is that there is still far more hawkishness than dovishness around the table at the Eccles building. Much of the speech focused on the fact that while things were certainly better than the peak inflation period last year, there is still a long way to go before they feel confident they have achieved their goal. And one other thing, Powell made it clear that the goal remains 2%. All this talk of raising the target seems like it will get no hearing at all for the time being.
A quick look at equity markets on Friday shows that the initial impression of the speech was the hawkish view as stocks fell pretty sharply right away. However, after falling about 0.7% in the first hour, buyers returned, and the major indices all closed nicely higher on the day. Of course, the irony of that outcome is higher equity prices beget easier financial conditions which implies even more tightening by the Fed. But whatever.
Then later, said Madame Lagarde This job that we have is so hard The future’s unclear And though we’re sincere We’re clueless, though still avant-garde
Much later Friday, Madame Lagarde explained her updated framework for how the ECB is going to be handling things in the future. The very best thing she said was that they would act with humility as they proceed. And while it would be great if that were to be the case, my 40 years of experience tells me it is unlikely to work out that way.
The essence of her speech was to identify that the world has changed and that old economic relationships may no longer be viable. As I have written many times about all the central banks, each of them has a series of econometric models by which they steer their course. The problem is those models have over time been proven to be completely worthless. And more disturbingly, anytime someone with a different viewpoint has a chance to be nominated to enter the club, they are shot down immediately. There is virtually zero willingness to truly think outside of the box of their making. While Lagarde preaches that they will be humble going forward, it seems highly unlikely they will consider anything that is not completely orthodox, even as a thought experiment. And to my mind, that is the exact opposite of humility.
At any rate, Lagarde’s speech was very late in the market day and did not seem to have much impact at all. Thus concludes the recap from Friday’s activity. Now let’s turn to this morning.
In China, old President Xi Keeps trying to force, by decree A rally in stocks By banning sales blocks And halving the transaction fee
While it is getting tiresome to have to write about China yet again, it remains the other major story in the markets. Last night, the government unveiled yet another set of measures to try to support the stock market there with only marginally more success than seen last week. (As an aside, does it seem strange to anyone else that a communist country with state control over most aspects of life is keen to support the bastion of capitalism that is a stock market?).
The latest effort included three steps; a 50% cut in the transaction tax, down to 0.05%; a limit on new listings (to prevent more supply); and a ban on sales by controlling shareholders if those companies have not paid dividends in the past three years or are trading below their IPO price. These were announced before the market opened and the initial response was a 5.5% jump compared to Friday’s closing levels in the CSI 300. Alas, it was a very short-lived gain with half that evaporating in the first 10 minutes of trading and the end result a gain of only about 1% on the day. Certainly, better than a decline, but clearly not what President Xi had in mind.
Ultimately, the problems in China go far beyond the level of stamp duty on stock trades. There are fundamental problems in the economy’s structure as well as the demographic and debt overhangs that exist there. Despite the much ballyhooed efforts by Xi to adjust the Chinese economy away from its mercantilist economic model, that is still the predominant process there. It is with this in mind that I continue to look for a much weaker renminbi going forward, and an eventual move to 7.50 and beyond.
As to the rest of the equity markets, currently everything is in the green, with Japan having a great day (+1.7%) and all of Europe higher by between 0.50% and 1.00%. US futures, too, are firmer this morning, although only just at this hour (7:20), about 0.2% across the board. As there is a ton of data to come this week, I suspect that traders will be waiting for more information before making their next big bets.
In the bond market, things are quite benign with no major government market having seen a yield change of even 1 basis point this morning. There are some gainers and some losers, but for all intents and purposes, bonds are unchanged on the day. The one thing to note, though, is that the US Treasury curve inversion is growing again, back to -86bps, after having traded to as low as -65bps less than two weeks ago. I feel like this movement simply adds to the confusion over the imminence of a recession, although I definitely believe one is coming by early next year. Of course, we will learn far more about the economy this week given the data to be released.
In the commodity space, oil is marginally softer this morning, back just below $80/bbl, although there seems to be an increasing effort by OPEC+ to continue to restrict supply as they fear a recession coming. Metals prices are generally little changed this morning, again, with market behaviors driven by the uncertainty over the week’s upcoming news.
Finally, the dollar is also mixed this morning, with a nice mix of gainers and losers across both the G10 and EMG blocs. I feel the bias will be for a stronger dollar given my take on Powell’s comments as being hawkish, but as I explained, there was plenty of fodder for both arguments.
Turning to the data, there is a lot this week as follows:
| Today | Dallas Fed Manufacturing | -19.0 |
| Tuesday | Case Shiller Home Prices | -1.65% |
| JOLTS Job Openings | 9450K | |
| Consumer Confidence | 116.2 | |
| Wednesday | ADP Employment | 198K |
| Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$90.0B | |
| GDP Q2 | 2.40% | |
| Thursday | Initial Claims | 235K |
| Continuing Claims | 1705K | |
| Personal Income | 0.30% | |
| Personal Spending | 0.70% | |
| Core PCE Deflator | 0.2% (4.2% Y/Y) | |
| Chicago PMI | 44.1 | |
| Friday | Nonfarm Payrolls | 168K |
| Private Payrolls | 150K | |
| Manufacturing Payrolls | 3K | |
| Unemployment Rate | 3.50% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% (4.3% Y/Y) | |
| Average Weekly Hours | 34.3 | |
| Participation Rate | 62.60% | |
| Construction Spending | 0.50% | |
| ISM Manufacturing | 47.0 | |
| ISM Prices Paid | 44.0 |
Source: Bloomberg
So, as can be seen there is a ton of stuff to digest this week. On top of that, we do hear from a few Fed speakers, but I think that given we just got Powell’s views, the data will be far more important than anything from a few regional bank presidents. While obviously, Core PCE is critical, as it is their key inflation metric, I continue to look at the payroll data as the key for Powell to believe that he has not broken anything yet. Once that data starts to fade, we can look for a change in tone from the Fed. But until then, higher for longer remains the key, and the dollar should continue to benefit.
Good luck
Adf
fxpoetry 