Tag Archives: #Turkey

Quite Foreboding

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In this, the eighth month of the year
The market’s succumbing to fear
With Turkey imploding
It feels quite foreboding
And folks, it can get more severe!

On Friday I discussed the Turkey situation as one beginning to spiral out of control. Well, this morning it has lived up to that billing with the lira falling an additional 7.5% as I type, although that includes a substantial recovery from its worst levels today. Now, the central bank there has finally reacted by loosening reserve requirements and offering foreign currency loans to local banks in unlimited size, but those moves have had only a limited positive impact on the currency. And since President Erdogan refuses to countenance higher interest rates, it seems that the next move is going to be capital controls, and it is likely to come pretty soon. In fact, if the recent pace of the lira’s decline continues unchecked, and I see no reason for it to stop yet, I expect that we will see capital controls before the week is out, and maybe as soon as tomorrow.

Here’s the thing. Turkey’s growth over the past decade has largely been debt driven (after all, who’s hasn’t?) but the Turks have been one of the most aggressive in using USD funding such that dollar debt represents >50% of the total debt in the economy. When the Fed turned from ultra easy monetary policy to begin tightening, it really began to hurt them. And as Chairman Powell has not only continued the process begun under Yellen, but increased the pace, the pain has become unbearable for Turkey’s economy. So it is fair to say that Turkey’s problems are self-inflicted (had they taken a more local and gradual path toward growth they arguably wouldn’t be in this bind), but those problems are not unique within the emerging markets, and at a certain point to investors, it doesn’t matter.

As I mentioned Friday, herd behavior amongst investors is the rule, not the exception. And as liquidity in Turkish asset markets dries up, and it has, investment managers will be looking to sell other risky assets in order to manage their overall portfolios. That is a key reason why ZAR has fallen by 2.5% this morning. Too, the Mexican peso has fallen 2% and even the Korean won, which is nobody’s idea of an emerging market (per capita GDP ranks ahead of Spain, Italy and New Zealand according to the CIA) has fallen 1.0%. The point is, if an asset manager cannot sell what he wants to sell to reduce risk, then he will sell what he can sell in order to limit portfolio damage. And this is how contagion starts!

So does Turkey really matter? In the FX markets, prior to the recent situation, the Turkish lira was a favored carry trade component, with investors seeking to earn what had been very high yields with a relatively stable currency. But that trade is over, and by all appearances, Turkey is going to be facing a recession pretty soon, which means that real trade flows are likely to diminish as well. In that sense, Turkey doesn’t matter too much.

But when you put this situation in the context of what else is happening in the world, this could well be the proverbial last straw. We have already been dealing with escalating trade tensions that show no sign of ebbing; a seeming stalemate in the Brexit talks opening the door to the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal; a populist government in Italy threatening to challenge Eurozone fiscal rules; and not least, a Federal Reserve that, despite everything else going on, is hell-bent and determined to continue raising interest rates. It should be no surprise that a number of equity markets around the world have struggled so far this year, but there is still a lot more green than red on screens. However, market sentiment can only take so much stress before investors decide that the risk is no longer worth the reward. I fear that we may be approaching that point. Market sentiment can be fleeting, and right now, we seem to be watching it flee!

With that in mind, a look at the G10 currency space confirms everything we have seen for the past several sessions. The dollar is broadly higher, with the euro -0.3% and the pound -0.2% although the yen, as is its wont in a crisis, has rallied 0.5%. Equity markets around the world are bathed in red, with the Nikkei falling 2% overnight and European shares, on average, down about 0.5%. US equity futures are pointing to a -0.3% opening in New York as well. Treasuries and Bunds have continued their modest rally, with yields falling another 1-2bps, and commodity prices are under pressure again. In other words, this is a classic risk off performance.

What can stop this? Historically, it has been the IMF that would step in and help support a country and its currency when stressed in this manner (remember Argentina a few months ago getting a $50 billion line of credit), but I am skeptical of that happening this time around. There are two things likely to prevent the IMF from getting involved: first, President Erdogan has been extremely vocal in his disdain for orthodox economic policies like raising interest rates in to help combat rising inflation, but the IMF will demand tighter monetary and tighter fiscal policy, neither of which Erdogan is likely to embrace; and second, for the IMF to act, the US has to be on sides, and the current situation has been partly aggravated by the diplomatic row between the US and Turkey. It seems hard to believe that President Trump will give the IMF the leeway to extend help. Unfortunately, I fear that there is more turmoil in our future.

Turning to the data review this week, there is a modest uptick in the volume of data, but it is not clear any of it will be critical to the Fed’s view of the world.

Tuesday NFIB Small Business 106.9
Wednesday Nonfarm Productivity 2.3%
  Unit Labor Costs 0.3%
  Empire State Mfg 20
  Retail Sales 0.1%
  -ex Autos 0.3%
  IP 0.3%
  Capacity Utilization 78.2%
Thursday Housing Starts 1.26M
  Building Permits 1.31M
  Initial Claims 215K
  Philly Fed 22
Friday Michigan Sentiment 98

Arguably, Retail Sales will be the most watched number, but everything we have heard from Fed speakers of late has been full speed ahead, so we will need to see much weaker data to change that perspective. Either that or a total collapse in the emerging market space, with the latter situation seemingly far more likely than the former. In the end, I see no reason to change my views on the dollar’s broad trajectory, which remains higher for the foreseeable future.

Good luck
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Somewhat Restrictive

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Said Evans, if I were predictive
A setting that’s somewhat restrictive
Might be just the thing
To slightly hamstring
This growth that’s become quite addictive

Chicago Fed president Charles Evans, a reliable dovish voice on the FOMC, spoke yesterday and made news because of his more hawkish tone. “If inflation [PCE] continues to be on the order of 2, 2.2 (percent) — I’m not expecting it to get as high as 2.5 — that suggests only a modest amount of restrictiveness above our neutral rate might be called for in 2020,” he said and continued, “ It would not surprise me at all if we make a judgment to move to a somewhat restrictive setting.” For a dove, that is a remarkable admission of the strength of the economy and the growing belief that monetary policy is now sending the wrong signals.

Remember, despite the fact that the Fed has raised rates seven times for a total of 175bps since December 2015, Fed funds remain well below the inflation rate so real interest rates remain negative. In fact, this morning we will see just how far below as CPI is due to be released at 8:30 and expected to print at 3.0% with the core rate at 2.3%. Historically, real interest rates have been positive to the tune of 2.0% and while there have clearly been fundamental changes in the economy that may warrant a lower real interest rate (e.g. technological advances driving efficiencies, globalization), negative real rates are only called for during a recession or worse. If the doves are now on board the rate raising train, and these comments seem to suggest that they are, the Fed could become even more aggressive in 2019, with a press conference after every meeting, and therefore the opportunity to explain their actions. Don’t be surprised if they raise rates in January 2019 especially if the emerging markets don’t completely crater. And if you want a hint of how this will impact the dollar, last night’s price action, with the DXY rising 0.5% and the euro finally breaking out of its recent trading range, falling by a similar amount, are very good prognosticators.

But the caveat is, if the emerging markets don’t crater, and that is an important caveat. Last night, the Turkish lira saw a significant escalation in the recent market tension as it fell nearly 10% at one point and though it has recovered slightly, remains down by 7% as I type. The thing is, nothing new has been revealed. It appears that as the week is drawing to a close, traders and investors are simply coming to the conclusion that President Erdogan is not going to allow the central bank the leeway it needs to manage the economy in an orthodox manner, and that things could well spiral out of control. The fact that Turkey and the US remain at odds over the arrest of an American pastor by Istanbul, and that sanctions are being imposed, is just adding fuel to the fire. This is the proverbial falling knife. Don’t try to catch it. Until the politics changes, the currency is likely to continue in freefall.

The question is, will this infect other emerging markets, and by extension developed country markets? If last night is any indication, it may just be starting to do so. Equity markets throughout Europe are lower, some pretty sharply (Germany -1.5%, Italy -1.7%) as concerns have been raised over some of the large European banks’ exposures to Turkey. We saw weakness in Japanese equities (-1.3%) despite the fact that GDP growth there in Q2 was shown to be a better than expected 1.9% annualized. US equity futures are also softer, down about 0.5% at this point, and Treasury yields are falling (10yr -4bps) as investors are fleeing to safe havens. In other words, it is beginning to look like that infection is starting to spread.

As is often the case, these concerns make themselves known in almost random fashion. Certain currencies respond to the news in a negative way, while others that you may assume would see the same type of response don’t move. It is also important to watch the movement over a week or two, rather than on a given day, as those trends can be more revealing. For example, RUB is barely softer this morning, down just 0.3%, despite increased sanctions imposed by the US because of the poisoning of an ex Russian spy in London earlier this year. But this week it has fallen 5.6%, a pretty hefty move, and indicative of the fact that there is growing concern there. Another currency feeling the pressure this morning is ZAR, which has fallen 1.1% and 4% on the week. But as it had strengthened sharply through Q1, it is only down 2% in the past year. However, the recent trend is ominous and it certainly appears that ZAR has further to fall. MXN is another interesting case, where it has fallen 1.25% overnight and 2.6% this week, but remains far stronger than its levels earlier this summer in the run up to the presidential election there. However, regardless of the market’s relief that AMLO does not seem to be as radical as initially feared, emerging market disease can be quite contagious, and it would not surprise me at all to see the peso fall another 5% or even more if we see additional pressure elsewhere.

The key to remember here is that there is a great deal of herd behavior demonstrated by investors, especially emerging market investors, and if they start to leave one market because there is fear of a serious problem, it can easily spread to other markets, especially if liquidity in that first market dries up. We have been witnessing individual market problems all year, and each one seemed isolated due to specific local events. But I am getting the feeling that we may have reached a tipping point, where there have been enough individual events to cause a re-evaluation of the general trend. If this is indeed the case, then the Fed may well slow the pace of its rate hikes, but the dollar should benefit anyway as the safest haven of all.

Do not be surprised if we see wider spread weakness across emerging market currencies going forward, and by extension, the G10 as well. There are likely to be two exceptions to this rule, JPY and CHF, but otherwise, I fear thin summer markets may lead us to some larger moves across the board. So stay alert and maintain those hedge ratios.

Good luck and good weekend
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Up To New Tricks

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The nation that first tried to fix
Its price target’s up to new tricks
Last night it explained
That rates would remain
Unchanged til growth, up, finally ticks

You know it has been a relatively uneventful session when the most interesting story is about New Zealand! For those with a bent toward history, it was then-RBNZ Governor Donald Brash, who in 1988 set the first inflation target for a nation, 3.0% at that time, and who was able to maintain the RBNZ’s independence from government meddling ( a new philosophy then) to help achieve that target and eventually bring interest rates down from more than 15% to low single digits. Well, last night when the RBNZ met, they left rates on hold at a record low level of 1.75%, as was universally expected, but they added a sentence to their policy statement “…that rates will remain at this level through 2019 and into 2020”, adding forward guidance to the mix and surprising markets completely. The result was that the NZD fell a bit more than 1% instantly and has continued lower to currently trade down 1.4% on the session and back to its lowest level since March 2016.

This action simply underscores the policy divergence that we have seen over the past two and a half years. Since the Fed’s first, tentative steps towards tightening in December 2015, it has been clear that the US remains ahead of the global growth cycle. And now we find ourselves in a world where several countries are trending higher (US, Canada, India, Sweden) in growth and inflation, while others are seeing the opposite outcome (China, New Zealand, Australia). Of course there are those who are in between, like the Eurozone and Japan, where they want to believe that things are getting better so they can normalize policy, but just don’t quite have the confidence yet. Maybe soon. And it is these policy differences, as well as expectations for their evolution, that will continue to be the key drivers of currencies going forward.

However, away from New Zealand, the G10 has been a dull affair. There has been limited data released and currency movement has been extremely modest, generally less than 0.1% since yesterday’s closing levels.

Emerging markets, though, have been a different story, with several of them really taking a tumble. Starting with Turkey, which has, of course, been under pressure for the past several months, last night saw yet another significant decline of 2.2%, which makes 6.5% this week and more than 50% in the past year. Additional US sanctions driven by the arrest of a US pastor in Turkey have been the recent catalyst, but the reality is that there is an increasing sense of doom attached to President Erdogan’s economic management theories, which include the idea that high interest rates cause inflation; they don’t fight it. But high inflation is what they have there, with the annual rate now running above 16% and rising. The lira has further to fall, mark my words.

Next on the list is the Russian ruble, which has recovered as I write to only be down by 0.6%, after having been lower by as much as 1.3% earlier in the session. However, this week it is lower by 4.2% and nearly 7% this month. The story here is a combination of both new US sanctions as the latest response to the poisoning of an ex Russian agent in the UK earlier this year, as well as the sharp decline in oil prices yesterday, WTI fell 3.2% after storage data indicated there was much more oil and products around than expected. The Russian economy is definitely feeling the squeeze of US sanctions and I expect that the ruble will continue to be pressured lower for a while yet.

But once we get past those currencies, there is precious little to discuss in this space as well. Which takes us to the upcoming data releases. This morning we see Initial Claims (exp 220K) and PPI (3.4%, 2.8% core) at 8:30 and then we hear from Chicago Fed president Evans at 9:30. Evans is a known dove, so the only possibility of a newsworthy event would be if he sounded hawkish. Yesterday, Richmond Fed president Barkin said it was time to get rates back to ‘normal’ and that two more hikes this year seem reasonable. While the futures market is not yet pricing in great confidence in a December move by the Fed, it seems a foregone conclusion to me.

In the end, nothing has happened to alter my views that the Fed will continue to lead the way in tighter monetary policy and that the dollar will be the main beneficiary of that action.

Good luck
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Ere Brexit’s Birthday

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The UK Prime Minister May
Is seeking an outcome one day
Where Europe realizes
That some compromises
Are needed ere Brexit’s birthday

It has been a painfully quiet FX market overnight with very limited new information crossing the tapes. Lately, the biggest market moves have been seen in the Turkish lira, which after falling nearly 5% yesterday has rebounded just under 2% today. The thing is that Turkey’s importance in the broad scheme of the market is so marginal, it is tiresome to mention too frequently. And let’s face it; as long as President Erdogan is running things, this situation is unlikely to improve.

Arguably the only other noteworthy story overnight is the continued angst in the UK over International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox’s comments about the increasing probability of a hard Brexit. Certainly the analyst community all jumped on the bandwagon yesterday with regard to the discussion, but in the end, there is still precious little movement in the negotiations. There was a Bloomberg article this morning that was quite disconcerting, at least if you want to see a deal put in place. It basically hypothesized that PM May was counting on an increased willingness by the EU to compromise in order that the bloc may show a unified stance to President Trump at the G20 meeting scheduled for November in Buenos Aires. That seems pretty thin gruel for negotiating tactics and doesn’t sound like a winning play to me, but then I’m not a politician.

Reviewing the key issues outstanding, I still don’t see how the Irish border situation can be resolved effectively. Northern Ireland demands that there is no ‘hard’ border between themselves and Ireland, but as that will now be the only land border between the UK and the EU, something will be necessary to insure the proper movement of people and goods between nations. (Perhaps they can use the Shrodinger’s Cat model, where the border simultaneously does and doesn’t exist until someone looks to cross it.) In effect, one side is going to have to cave in, and right now, neither side is willing to do so. As long as this remains the case, I maintain that a hard Brexit is the most likely outcome and that the pound has further to fall.

But away from that, there is just not much to discuss. The dollar, overall, is slightly softer, giving back some of its recent gains, but that remains trading activity not news driven movement. Data has been sparse with soft German IP offset by ongoing strong trade data the most noteworthy Eurozone prints. The RBA left rates on hold, as universally expected, although perhaps the statement was seen as a bit more hawkish than anticipated as the Aussie dollar is actually today’s top performer in the G10, rising 0.6%. But after that, there is nothing to note.

And quite frankly, the only thing on the calendar this morning in the US is the JOLTs Jobs Report, which is simply going to show that the employment situation in the US remains quite strong. But we know that already and it was reconfirmed last Friday with the payroll report.

All told, it is shaping up to be an uninspiring day in the FX markets. Given we have seen some pretty steady strength in the dollar for the past week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this morning’s mild weakness extend further. But I wouldn’t read any long-term thoughts into a day with low volumes where prices are correcting.

Good luck
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Now In Disarray

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The saga of Minister May
Improved not one whit yesterday
When Boris resigned
Pound Sterling declined
And her party’s now in disarray

The news from the UK continues to dominate market headlines as less than twenty-four hours after the resignation of the Brexit Minister David Davis, Boris Johnson, a Brexit hardliner and Foreign Minister also resigned from PM May’s cabinet. While PM May replaced both men quickly, the problem is one of appearances in that she seems to be losing control over her government. The market’s immediate reaction was to sell the pound (it fell 0.7% yesterday after the news and has maintained those losses) as concerns over a leadership challenge and potentially a new election were brought to the fore. However, since then, it seems things have quieted down a bit and there is even talk that this could be a Sterling positive as it may result in a softer Brexit with less economic impact. In the meantime, this morning’s data showed that GDP has been rebounding from Q1’s flat reading, with the monthly May reading rising 0.3% and although IP data was soft (-0.4% in May), Construction was strong (+1.6%) and it appears that Governor Carney will still have enough ammunition to justify a rate increase next month. The risk to that outlook is if a leadership challenge emerges in Parliament and PM May is deposed. In that event, market participants may take a dimmer view of the near future depending on who replaces her.

Away from the British Isles, however, there is less excitement in the G10 economies. The big US news remains political with President Trump naming Brett Kavanaugh to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy. However, on the economic front, there has been precious little news or commentary. In fact, until Thursday’s CPI reading, I expect the US story to be benign unless something surprising happens in the Treasury auctions beginning today, where the US is raising $69 billion via 3yr, 10yr and 30yr auctions.

From Germany we saw the ZEW surveys disappoint with the Sentiment Index falling to -24.7, its lowest print since December 2011 during the European bond crisis. This has encouraged a reversal in the euro, which is down 0.3% this morning after a week of gains. As well, the other, admittedly minor, Eurozone data also pointed to modest Eurozone weakness, thus giving the overall impression that the recent stabilization on the continent may be giving way to another bout of weakness. However, we will need to see more important data weaken to confirm that outcome. Certainly, Signor Draghi is convinced that the worst is behind them, but he has always been an optimist.

In the emerging markets, Turkey has once again stolen the headlines as President Erdogan named his son-in-law as Minister of Finance and Economics, thus following through on his threat promise to take firmer control over monetary policy. In the cabinet reshuffle he also removed the last vestiges of central banking experience so I would look for inflation in Turkey to start to really take off soon, and the currency to fall sharply. And that is despite the fact that it fell 3% yesterday after the announcement. In fact, I would look for more moves of that nature and a print above 5.00 in the not too distant future.

But other than that, while the dollar is stronger this morning, it is not running away. The broad theme today seems to be modest profit taking by traders who had been running short dollar positions, and so a bit of further strength would be no surprise. On the data front, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was released earlier at 107.2, stronger than expected and still showing that small businesses remain confident in the economic situation for now. The JOLTs jobs report comes at 10:00 and should simply confirm that the employment situation in the US remains robust. My gut tells me that modest further dollar strength is on tap for today, but really, barring a political bombshell, I expect that things will be very quiet overall. It is the middle of summer after all.

Good luck
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