The Beige Book explained ‘round the nation
That growth was up, as was inflation
As well, we all learned
Of job offers spurned
And businesses filled with frustration
Meanwhile, round the world, PMI’s
Of Services were no surprise
As nations reopen
Most people are hopin’
The world will, at last, normalize
Ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report in the US, one which given last month’s extraordinary miss will be closely scrutinized by both investors and the Fed, most markets appear to be biding their time in narrow ranges. This was largely true yesterday and so far, remains the case in the Asian and European sessions. This lull in activity offers an excellent time to consider the supporting data that we have received in the past twenty-four hours, as well as the remainder due this morning.
Starting with the Fed’s Beige Book yesterday, the report highlighted the features of the economy we have been hearing about for the past several months. The lifting of Covid inspired restrictions has led to strong increases in demand for products and services ranging from houses and cars to hotels and restaurants. Business owners indicated that a combination of supply chain bottlenecks and increased demand have been forcing prices higher and that they saw no reason for that to end soon. They also continue to comment on their inability to hire the workers necessary to satisfy demand, especially in lower wage segments of the economy. The anecdote I feel best illustrates the issue came from St Louis where a job fair held by a dozen restaurants to fill more than one hundred open positions drew only twelve candidates! It certainly appears as though the ongoing extra Federal unemployment benefits being offered through September are discouraging a lot of people from going back to work.
One of the underlying beliefs regarding the Fed’s transitory inflation story is that supply chain interruptions will quickly resolve themselves. And it is not just the Fed that believes this will be the case, but virtually every other economist as well. But I wonder, what prompts their faith in that outcome? After all, with available labor scarce, who is going to relink those chains? Consider, as well, industries like mining and extraction of raw materials. Shortages of copper and iron ore require the reopening of mines or excavating new ones. One of the impacts of Covid was that not only were current operating mines closed, but capex was drastically cut, so there is a significant disruption in the exploration process. Add to that the rise of ESG as a business objective, which will, at the very least slow, if not prevent, the opening of new sources of these raw materials, and it becomes quite easy to believe that these bottlenecks will remain for more than just a few months. In fact, it would not be surprising if it was several years before the supply/demand balance in many commodities is achieved. Given the current assessment is a lack of supply, you can be certain that prices will continue to rise far longer than the Fed will have you believe.
As to the overnight session, we were regaled with the Services PMI data from around the world. In Asia we saw Australia solid, at 58.0, and right in line with last month, while Japan, 46.5, did show a marginal increase, but remains well below the growth-contraction line of 50.0. China’s Caixin data, at 55.1, was disappointing vs. expectations as well as lower by 1.2 points compared to April’s reading. Is the Chinese economy beginning to roll over? That is a question that is starting to be asked and would also explain the PBOC’s sudden concern over a too-strong renminbi. In a strong economy, a rising currency is acceptable, but if things are not as good, currency strength is an unwelcome event. Finally, the last major Asian nation reporting, India, showed awful data, 46.4, demonstrating the huge negative impact the recent wave of Covid infections is having on the economy there.
The European story was a bit better overall, with Germany (52.8 as expected), France (56.6 as expected), Italy (53.1 better than expected) and the Eurozone (55.2 slightly better than expected) all demonstrating the recovery is underway on the continent. As well, the UK continues to burn brightly with a 62.9 reading, more than a point higher than forecast. And don’t forget, later this morning the US releases both the PMI data (exp 70.1) as well as ISM Services (63.2) both demonstrating that the US economy remains the global leader for now. With that in mind, it is kind of odd that the dollar is so hated, isn’t it?
The other data coming this morning will give us our first hints at tomorrow’s NFP with ADP Employment (exp 650K) released 15 minutes before both Initial (387K) and Continuing (3.614M) Claims. As well, at 8:30 we see Nonfarm Productivity (5.5%) and Unit Labor Costs (-0.4%), which on the surface would indicate there are no wage pressures at all but continue to be distorted by the past year’s data outcomes.
As to the market situation, while equity markets in Asia were mixed (Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng -1.1%, Shanghai -0.4%), Europe has turned completely red (DAX -0.5%, CAC -0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.9%) despite the solid PMI data. This feels far more like some profit taking ahead of tomorrow’s data as well as the upcoming ECB meeting next week. US futures are also under pressure, with all three major indices lower by between 0.5% and 0.75%.
What is interesting about the market is that despite the selloff in stocks, we are seeing a selloff in bonds as well, with Treasury yields higher by 1.5bps and European sovereigns all higher by at least 1 basis point (Bunds +1.1bps, OATs +1.4bps, Gilts +2.7bps). This, of course, begs the question, if investors are selling both stocks and bonds, what are they buying?
The answer is not clear at this point. Oil (WTI -0.1%) while outperforming everything else, is still down on the day, as are gold (-0.65%) and silver (-1.4%). Base metals? Well, copper (-1.0%) is clearly not the winner, although aluminum (+0.25%) is the only green spot on the screen. Well, that and agricultural products with Soybeans (+1.25%), Wheat (+1.0%) and Corn (+0.85%) all quite strong this morning, punctuating the idea that food inflation is running at its highest level in more than a decade according to a just released UN report. That is something I certainly see every week at Shop-Rite and I imagine so does everyone else.
Finally, a look at the FX market shows the dollar is having a pretty good day all around. In the G10, the pound (+0.1%) is the only currency to hold its own vs. the greenback, with the rest of the bloc lower by between 0.2% and 0.4%. Frankly, this simply looks like a risk-off session as investors are selling both stocks and bonds across the G10, and no longer need to hold the local currencies. In the EMG bloc, the story is largely the same, with only INR (+0.25%) rising and the rest of the bloc under some pressure. The rupee movement seems to be more technical as alongside weak PMI data, the RBI meeting, coming up tonight, is expected to see policy remain unchanged with a dovish bias given the ongoing Covid problems in the country. On the downside, while most currencies are lower, aside from TRY (-0.5%) on slightly lower inflation, therefore less need to maintain high rates, the rest of the bloc’s declines are only on the order of -0.2%. Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention yesterday’s price action in LATAM currencies, where we saw significant strength in BRL (+1.5%) and CLP (+1.1%) which has been a broad continuation of funds flowing back into the region.
We have a few more Fed speakers today, but they all say exactly the same thing all the time, it seems, that they are thinking about considering starting a discussion on tapering. In this vein, there was a big announcement yesterday that the Fed would be unwinding one of the emergency bond buying programs, the secondary market corporate program, and selling out the $13 billion of bonds and ETF’s they own. Of course, that is such a tiny proportion of their balance sheet, and of that market in truth, it seems unlikely to matter at all.
My observation lately has been that NY tends to go against the prevailing trend for the day during its session, meaning on a day like today, when the dollar is well bid as NY arrives, I would look for a bit of dollar selling. We shall see, but in fairness, all eyes are really on tomorrow.
Good luck and stay safe