Tag Archives: #Mnuchin

Pandemic Support

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Til now the direction’s been clear
As Jay and Mnuchin did fear
If they didn’t spend
The US can’t mend
And things would degrade through next year

But now, unless there’s a breakthrough
It seems Treasury won’t renew
Pandemic support
Which likely will thwart
A rebound til late Twenty-Two

Just when you thought things couldn’t get more surprising, we wind up with a public disagreement between the US Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chair.  To date, Steve Mnuchin and Jay Powell have seemed to work pretty well together, and at the very least, were both on the same page.  Both recognized that the impact of the pandemic would be dramatic and there was no compunction by either to invent new ways to support both markets and the economy.  As well, both were appointed by the same president, and although their personal styles may be different, both seemed to have a single goal in mind, do whatever is necessary to maintain as much economic activity as possible.

Aah, but 2020 is unlike any year we have ever seen, especially when it comes to policy decisions.  The legalities of the alphabet soup of Fed programs (e.g. PMCCF, SMCCF, MMLF, etc.) require that they expire at the end of the year and must be renewed by the Treasury Department.  And in truth, this is a good policy as expiration dates on spending programs require continued debate as to their efficacy before renewal.  The thing is, given the rapid increase in covid infections and rapid increase in state economic restrictions and shutdowns, pretty much every economist and analyst agrees that all of these programs should continue until such time as the spread of the coronavirus has slowed or herd immunity has been achieved.  Certainly, every FOMC member has been vocal in the need for more fiscal stimulus as they know that their current toolkit is inadequate.  (Just yesterday we heard from both Loretta Mester and Robert Kaplan with exactly that message.)  But to a (wo)man, they have all explained that the Fed will continue to do whatever it can to help, and that means continuing with the current programs.

Into this mix comes the news that Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to the Fed that they must return the funds made available to backstop some of the Fed’s lending programs, as they were no longer needed.  The Fed immediately responded by saying “the full suite” of programs should be maintained into 2021.

Let’s consider, for a moment, some of the programs and what they were designed to do.  For instance, the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility do seem superfluous at this stage.  After all, more than $1.9 trillion of new corporate debt has been issued so far in 2020 and the Fed has purchased a total of $45.8 billion all year, just 2.4%, mostly through ETF’s.  It seems apparent that companies are not having any difficulty accessing financing, at very low rates, in the markets directly.  In the Municipal space, the Fed has only bought $16.5 billion while more than $250 billion has been successfully issued year to date.  Mnuchin’s point is, return the unused funds and deploy them elsewhere, perhaps as part of the widely demanded fiscal policy support.  The other side of that coin, though, is the idea that the reason the market’s have been able to support all that issuance is because the Fed backstop is in place, and if it is removed, then markets will react negatively.

In fairness, both sides have a point here, and perhaps the most surprising outcome is the public nature of the spat.  Historically, these two agencies work closely together, especially during difficult times.  But as I said before, 2020 is unlike any time we have seen in our lifetimes.  There is one other potential driver of this dissension, and that could be that politically, the Administration is trying to get Congress to act on a new stimulus plan quickly by threatening to remove some of the previous stimulus.  However, whatever the rationale, it clearly has the market on edge, interrupting the good times, although not yet resulting in a significant risk-off outcome.

If this disagreement is not resolved before the next FOMC meeting in three weeks’ time, the market will be looking for the Fed to expand its stimulus measures in some manner, either by increasing QE purchases or by purchasing longer tenor bonds, thus weighing on the back end of the curve as well as the front.  And for our purposes, meaning in the FX context, that would be significant, as either of those actions are likely to see a weaker dollar in response.  Remember, while no other central bank is keen to see the dollar weaken vs. their own currency, as long as CNY continues to outperform all, further dollar weakness vs. the euro, yen, pound, et al, is very much in the cards.

So, with that as our backdrop, markets today don’t really know what to do and are, at this point, mixed to slightly higher.  Asia, overnight, saw further weakness in the Nikkei (-0.4%), but both the Hang Seng and Shanghai exchanges gained a similar amount.  European bourses have slowly edged higher to the point where the CAC, DAX and FTSE 100 are all 0.5% higher on the day, although US futures are either side of unchanged as traders try to figure out the ultimate impact of the spat.  Bonds are mixed with Treasury yields higher by 1 basis point, but European yields generally lower by the same amount this morning.  Of course, a 1 basis point move is hardly indicative of a directional preference.

Both gold and oil are essentially flat on the day, and the dollar can best be described as mixed, although it is starting to soften a bit.  In the G10 space, NZD (+0.45%) leads the way with the rest of the commodity bloc (AUD, NOK, CAD) all higher by smaller amounts.  Meanwhile, the havens are under a bit of pressure, but only a bit, with JPY and CHF both softer by just (-0.1%).  EMG currencies have seen a similar performance as most Asian currencies strengthened overnight, but by small amounts, in the 0.2%-0.3% range.  Meanwhile, the CE4 were following the euro, which had been lower most of the evening but is now back toward flat, as are the CE4.  And LATAM currencies, as they open, are edging slightly higher.  But overall, while there is a softening tone to the dollar, it is modest at best.

On the data front, there is none to be released in the US today, although early this morning we learned that UK Retail Sales were a bit firmer than expected while Italian Industrial activity (Sales and Orders) was much weaker than last month.  On the speaker front, four more Fed speakers are on tap, but they all simply repeat the same mantra, more fiscal spending, although now they will clearly include, don’t end the current programs.

For the day, given it is the Friday leading into Thanksgiving week, I expect modest activity and limited movement.  However, if this spat continues and the Treasury is still planning on ending programs in December, I expect the Fed will step in to do more come December, and that will be a distinct dollar negative.

One last thing, I will be on vacation all of next week, so there will be no poetry until November 30.

Good luck, good weekend, stay safe and have a wonderful holiday
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Congressional Sloth

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The Chairman is set to appear
Near Mnuchin, and both will make clear
Congressional sloth
Is killing off growth
Thus, action’s required this year

The subtext, though, is that the Chair
Has realized his cupboard is bare
No ammo remains
To prop up the gains
That stocks have made ‘midst much fanfare

Yesterday’s risk-off session may well have set the tone for the week, as there has been precious little rebound yet seen.  In addition to the virus story, and the news of large bank misdeeds, the US election story remains a critical factor, although at this point, any impact remains difficult to discern.  The one thing that is quite clear is that there is a very stark choice between candidates.  Given the prevailing meme that it is going to be a very close election, and the outcome could be in doubt for weeks following November 3rd, and assuming that the market response will be quite different depending on who eventually wins, one cannot blame traders and investors for omitting the issue from their current calculations.  While eventually, there is likely to be a significant market response, at this point, it seems there is little to be gained by positioning early.

In the meantime, however, the current administration continues to seek to do what it thinks best for the economy, and today we will get to hear from Chairman Powell, as well as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, in Congressional testimony.  As is always the case in these situations, the text of Powell’s speech has been pre-released and it continues to focus on the one (apparently only) thing that is out of his control, more fiscal stimulus.  In his opening remarks he will describe the economy as improving but with still many problems ongoing.  He will also explain that monetary stimulus needs the help of fiscal stimulus to be truly effective.  In other words, he will explain that the Fed is now ‘pushing on a string’ and if Congress doesn’t enact new stimulus measures, there is little the Fed will be able to do to achieve their statutory goals.  Of course, he won’t actually use those words, but that will be the meaning.  It is abundantly clear that the Fed’s ability to support the real economy, as opposed to financial markets, has reached its end.

However, it is not just the Fed that has reached its limit, essentially every G10 central bank has reached the limit of effective central banking.  It has been argued, and I agree with the sentiment, that the difference between ‘normal’ positive interest rates and the zero and negative rates we currently see around the world is similar to the difference between Newtonian and Quantum mechanics in Physics.  In the positive rate environment, things are exactly as they seem.  Investment decisions are based on estimated returns, and risk of repayment is factored into the rate charged. There is a concept called the time value of money, where one dollar today is worth more than that same dollar in the future.  It is the basis on which Economics, the subject, was formulated.  This is akin to Newton’s well-known laws like; Every action has an equal and opposite reaction, or a body in motion will stay in motion unless acted on by another force.  They are even, dare I say, intuitive.

But in the zero (or negative) interest rate world, investment decisions are completely different.  First, the time value of money doesn’t make sense as it becomes, a dollar today is worth less than a dollar in the future.  As well, the addition of forward guidance is self-defeating.  After all, if they know that interest rates are going to remain zero for the next three years, what is the hurry for a company to borrow money now? Especially given the extreme lack of demand for so many products.  Instead, managements have realized that there is no need to worry about increasing production, they will always be able to do that when demand increases.  Rather, their time can be better spent reconfiguring their capital structure to reduce equity (lever up) and show ever increasing EPS growth without risking a poor investment decision.  This is akin to the difficulty in understanding the quantum realm, where uncertainty reigns (thank you Heisenberg) and the accuracy of measuring the position (EPS) and momentum (growth) of a particle are inversely related.

The problem is that central bankers are all Newtonians (or Keynesians), and so simply plug zero and negative numbers into their models and expect the same reactions as when they plug in positive numbers. And the output is garbage, which is a key reason they have been unable to stimulate economic activity effectively.  Alas, as long as problems persist, central bankers will feel compelled to “do something” when doing nothing may be the best course of action.  In the end, look for more monetary stimulus as it is the only tool they have.  Unfortunately, its effectiveness has been diminished to near zero, like their interest rates.

In the meantime, a look around markets shows that risk is neither off nor on this morning, but mostly confused.  Asian equity markets followed yesterday’s US losses, with declines of around 1% in those markets open.  (The Nikkei remained closed).  But European bourses have turned modestly higher on the day as the results of some regional elections in Italy have been taken quite positively.  There, the League’s Matteo Salvini lost seats to the current government, thus reducing the probability of a toppling government and easing pressure on Italian assets.  In fact, the FTSE MIB is the leading gainer today, higher by 1.2%, but we also see the DAX (+1.0%) and CAC (+0.5%) shaking off early losses to turn up.  US futures are mixed at this time, although well off the lows seen during the Asia session.

In the bond market, yesterday saw Treasury yields decline about 3 basis points amidst the ongoing risk reduction, but this morning, prices are edging lower and the yield has backed up just about 1bp.  In Europe, things have been much more interesting as Italian BTP’s have rallied sharply during the day, with yields now down 3.5 basis points, after opening with a similar sized rise in yields.  Bunds, meanwhile, are selling off a bit, as fears of an eruption of Italian trouble recede.

And finally, the dollar, which had been firmer much of the evening, is now ceding much of those gains, and at this hour I would have to describe as mixed.  In the G10, NOK (-0.5%) remains under the most pressure as oil prices continue to soften and there is now a controversy brewing with respect to the investment strategy of the Norwegian oil fund.  But away from NOK, the G10 is +/- 0.15%, which means it is hard to describe the situation as significant.

In the emerging markets, ZAR (+1.1%) continues to be the most volatile currency around, with daily movements in excess of 1%.  It has become, perhaps, the best sentiment gauge out there.  When investors are feeling good, ZAR is in demand, and it is quick to be sold in the event that risk is under pressure.  CNY (+0.45%) is the next best performer.  This is at odds with what appears to be the PBOC’s intentions as they set the fix at a much weaker than expected 6.7872, or 0.4% weaker than yesterday.  It seems the PBOC may be getting concerned over the speed with which the renminbi has been rising, as in the end, they cannot afford for the currency to appreciate too far.  On the red side of the ledger, KRW and IDR both fell 0.6% last night as risk mitigation was the story at the time.

Aside from Chairman Powell speaking today, we also see Existing Home Sales (exp 6.0M), which if it reaches expectations would be the highest print since 2007.  If risk is back in vogue, then I would look for the dollar to continue to edge lower.  And you can be sure that Chairman Powell will not do anything to upset that apple cart.

Good luck and stay safe
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Patience is Needed

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Mnuchin said patience is needed
While Powell said growth must be seeded
As both testified
And each justified
Their views, which both said must be heeded

Two months into the response to Covid-19, differences in policy views between the Fed and the Administration are starting to appear. In Senate testimony yesterday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated the belief that sufficient fiscal support has been authorized and its implementation is all that is needed, alongside the relaxation of lockdown rules around the country, for the economy to rebound sharply. The Administration’s base case remains a V-shaped recovery, with Q3 and Q4 showing substantial growth after what everyone agrees will be a devastatingly awful Q2 result.

Meanwhile, the Fed, via Chairman Powell, took the view that we remain in a critical period and that further stimulus may well be necessary to prevent permanent long-term damage to the economy. He continued to focus on the idea that until people feel safe with personal interactions, any rebound in the economy will be substandard. Of course, to date, of the $454 billion that Congress authorized for the Treasury to use as seed money underlying Fed lending schemes, less than $75 billion has been utilized. It seems that if Chairman Powell was truly that concerned, he would be ramping up the use of those funds more quickly. While part of the problem is the normal bureaucratic delays that come with implementing any new program, it is also true that the Fed is not well suited to support small businesses and individuals. Programs of that nature tend to require more fiscal than monetary support, at least as currently defined and implemented in today’s world. Remember, the Fed is not able to take losses according to its charter, which is why all the corporate bond buying and main street lending programs are already on shaky legal grounds.

The interesting thing about the dueling testimonies was just how little of an impact they had on market behavior yesterday. In fact, the late day equity market sell-off was almost certainly driven by the concern that yesterday’s media darling, the biotech firm Moderna, Inc., may not actually have a viable vaccine ready this year. Remember, it was the prospect that a vaccine was imminent and so lockdowns could be lifted that was critical in investor minds yesterday. If the vaccine story is no longer on track, it is much harder to justify paying over the top for equities. At any rate, that late day move set the tone for a much more subdued session in both Asia and Europe overnight.

Looking at markets, last night saw a mixed equity picture in Asia (Nikkei +0.8%, Shanghai -0.5%) and a very modest positive light in Europe (DAX +0.6%, CAC 0.0%, FTSE 100 +0.2%). More positively, US futures are pointing higher as I type, with all three indices looking at a 1% gain on the open if things hold. Bond markets are similarly uninspired this morning, with Treasury yields higher by less than 1bp while German bund yields are down by the same. In fact, looking across the European market, half are slightly higher, and half are slightly lower. Again, nothing of interest here.

Commodity markets show that oil continues to rebound sharply, up another 1% this morning and now above $32/bbl for WTI. Remember, it was less than a month ago that the May futures contract settled at -$37/bbl as storage was nowhere to be found. Certainly, any look at commodity markets would indicate that economic growth was making a return. But it sure doesn’t feel like that yet.

Finally, FX markets continue to see the dollar cede some recent gains as fears over USD funding by global counterparts continue to ebb on the back of Fed lending programs. In fact, this is exactly where the Fed can do the most good, helping to ensure that central banks around the world have the ability to access USD liquidity for their local markets.

A tour of the G10 shows that today’s biggest winner is NZD (+0.65%) followed by AUD and CHF, both higher by about 0.4%. The Kiwi dollar was supported by central bank comments about NIRP remaining a distant prospect, at best, with many hurdles to be jumped before it would make sense. Aussie seems to have benefitted from Japanese investment flows into their government bond markets, which are now relatively attractive vs. US Treasuries. Finally, after a short-lived decline yesterday afternoon, apparently driven by some options activity, the Swiss franc is simply returning to its previous levels. The other seven currencies are within a few bps of yesterday’s closing levels with only the background story of the Franco-German détente on EU economic support even getting press in the group.

In the EMG space, ZAR is today’s runaway leader, currently higher by 1.75% as a combination of continued strength in the price of gold and a major technical break have helped the rand. It must be remembered that the rand, even after today’s sharp rally, has been the third worst performing currency over the past three months having fallen more than 16%. This morning, the technicians are all agog as the spot rate traded back through its 50-day moving average, a strong technical signal to buy the currency. While economic prospects continue to be dim overall there and there is no evidence that the rate of infection is slowing, technical algorithms will continue to support the currency for the time being.

Otherwise, it is RUB (+1.1%) and MXN (+0.9%) that are trailing only the rand higher this morning, with both clearly benefitting from the ongoing rebound in oil and, more importantly, in the broad sentiment in the future for oil. Last month it appeared that oil was never going to matter again. That is not so much the case anymore. On the downside today, KRW (-0.4%) is the leading, and only, decliner in the space as the BOK creates a 10 trillion won (~$8 billion) SPV to inaugurate a QE program.

On the data front, yesterday’s housing data was pretty much as expected, with both Starts and Permits falling sharply. Today the only news of note comes at 2:00 when the FOMC Minutes are released. But given how much we have heard from Powell and the rest of the committee, will this really have that big an impact? I would be surprised.

The dollar continues under pressure for the time being and will stay that way as long as USD funding pressures overseas remain in check. While there are no obvious drivers in the near term, I continue to look at the pending change of heart in Europe regarding fiscal support and see an opportunity for a more structural case for dollar weakness over time.

Good luck and stay safe
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Manna From Heaven

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On Friday, the world nearly ended
On Monday, investors felt splendid
Today the G7
Brings manna from heaven
But will rate cuts work as intended?

Of course, everyone is aware of yesterday’s remarkable equity market rally as investors quickly grasped the idea that the world’s central banks are not going to go down without a fight. While there were separate statements yesterday, this morning the G7 FinMins and Central bankers are having a conference call, led by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, to discuss next steps in support of the global markets economy.

It is pretty clear that they are going to announce coordinated actions, with the real question simply what each bank is going to offer up. The argument in the US is will the cut be 25bps or 50bps? In the UK it is clearly 25bps. The ECB and BOJ have their own problems, although I wouldn’t be shocked to see 10bps from them as well as a pledge to increase asset purchases. And, of course, Canada remains largely irrelevant, but will almost certainly cut 25bps alongside the Fed.

But equity markets rebounded massively yesterday, so is there another move in store on this new news? That seems less probable. And remember, Covid-19 has not been cured and continues to spread pretty rapidly. The issue remains the government response, as we continue to see large events canceled (the Geneva Auto Show was the latest) which result in lost, not deferred, economic activity. The one thing that is very clear is that Q1 economic data is going to be putrid everywhere in the world, regardless of what the G7 decides. But perhaps they can save Q2 and the rest of the year.

The interesting thing is that bond markets don’t seem to be singing from the same hymnal as the stock markets. We continue to see a massive rally in bonds, with 2-year yields down to 0.87% while the 10-year is at 1.15%. That is hardly a description of a rip-roaring economy. Rather, that sounds like fears over an imminent recession. The only thing that is certain is that there are as many different views as there are traders and investors, and that has been instrumental in the significant increase in volatility we have observed.

As to the dollar, it has been under significant pressure since yesterday morning, with the euro climbing to its highest level since mid-January. I maintain the dollar’s weakness can be ascribed to the fact that the Fed is the only major central bank with room to really cut rates, and the market is in the process of pricing in 4 cuts for 2020, with more beyond. So further USD weakness ought not be too surprising, but I expect it is nearer its bottom than not, as in the end, the US remains the best place to invest in the current global economy. My point is that receivables hedgers need to be active and take advantage of the dollar’s recent decline. I don’t foresee it lasting for a long period of time.

The first actions were seen in Asia, as both Australia and Malaysia cut their base rates by 25bps while explaining that their close relationships with China require action. And that is certainly true as the extent of how far the Chinese economy will shrink in Q1 is still a huge unknown. Interestingly, AUD managed to rally 0.35% after the rate cut as investors seemed to approve of the action. The thing is, now rates Down Under are at 0.50%, so there is precious little room left to maneuver there. MYR, on the other hand, slipped slightly, -0.1%, although stocks there managed to rally 0.8% on the news.

Meanwhile, the market continues to punish certain nations that have their own domestic problems which are merely being exacerbated by Covid-19. A good example is South Africa, where the rand tumbled 1.45% this morning after Q4 GDP was released at a much worse than expected -0.5% Y/Y, which takes the nation to the edge of recession. And remember, this was before there was any concern over the virus, so things are likely to get worse before they get better. This doesn’t bode well for the rand in the near and medium term.

But overall, today has been, and will continue to be driven by expectations for, and then the response to the G7 meeting. While it is certain that whatever statement is made will be designed to offer support, given yesterday’s huge rebound in markets, there is ample chance for the G7 to disappoint. Arguably, the risks for the G7 are asymmetric as even an enormous support package of rate cuts and added fiscal spending seem mostly priced into the market. On the other hand, any disappointment could easily see the next leg down in both equity markets and bond yields as investors realize that sometimes, the only way to deal with a virus is to let it run its course.

Good luck
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