The thing that we learned from the Fed
Was they’ve not a clue what’s ahead
A few wanted fifty
But others more thrifty
Suggested a quarter instead
The thing that has Powell perplexed
Is what to do when they meet next
That’s why when he speaks
Near Jackson Hole’s peaks
Investors all fear some subtext
Once again the market has wandered aimlessly ahead of tomorrow’s Jackson Hole speech by Chairman Powell. Equity markets have generally edged lower (Hang Seng -0.85%, DAX -0.1%, FTSE -0.6%) although a few managed to scrape out a gain (Nikkei +0.05%, Shanghai +0.1%). Bond markets have also been mixed with most Asian markets rallying while Europe has seen small losses. I guess it’s only fitting that 10-year Treasuries are essentially unchanged on the day. Meanwhile, the dollar continues its broad winning ways with mostly modest gains against both G10 and EMG currencies.
At this point, all eyes are on tomorrow’s Powell speech to discern the Fed’s next move. Yesterday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes painted a picture of a group with significant differences in views. We know of the two dissenters, who didn’t want to cut rates at all, and it turns out that a “couple of participants” were looking for a fifty basis point cut. In the end, it is no surprise that twenty-five was the result, although the rationale, given their stated views that downside risks to the economy had diminished, seem shaky. The market response to the Minutes was, therefore, largely nonexistent, with almost no movement subsequent to their release in any market, which, given the proximity of the new information coming from Powell ought not be that surprising. In fact, it seems unlikely that today will bring too much activity either given that the important data has already been released (European PMI’s) and Initial Claims (exp 216K) and Leading Indicators (0.3%) are unlikely to change any opinions.
A quick look at those Eurozone PMI’s shows that they were marginally better than expected although continue to paint a picture of a weakening economy with no inflationary impulse. The biggest concern was that the new orders survey in Germany fell even further, a sign that there is no recovery in sight. At their release, the euro managed to rally about 0.35%, however it has given all of those gains back in the past four hours and seems more likely to wander aimlessly than take on a direction. The release of the ECB’s Minutes did nothing to change any views, merely confirming that they are preparing further easing for next month, with a growing chance of both an interest rate cut and the restarting of Large Scale Asset Purchases, better known as QE.
Other news of note comes from Djakarta, where Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised one and all and cut 25bps last night. However, the rupiah managed to eke out a small gain on the session as investors and traders seem more focused on the positive growth story, a true rarity these days, than on the interest rate situation. Most analysts are convinced that BI is done cutting unless the global economy really tanks, rather than merely continues its recent slowdown. In China we saw the renminbi soften some 0.3% and fall to levels not seen since 2008 in the onshore market. However, there has been no obvious further deterioration of the trade situation so I don’t anticipate a significant extension unless the PBOC acts more aggressively to ease policy. And arguing in favor of less movement is the fact that the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic is coming up on October 1st. Historically, the PBOC will go out of their way to insure financial markets are stable during that celebration and frequently they start the process several months beforehand.
Brexit is the final story that seems to be having an impact as PM Johnson is visiting Paris today after meetings in Berlin yesterday. At this point the EU continues to talk tough, but nothing has changed regarding the desperate need for the EU to prevent a shock to a weakening economy. In fact, the pound is bucking today’s dollar trend, currently trading higher by 0.15%, as traders are beginning to read between the lines and realize that a deal is more likely than currently priced. I maintain that we will see something in October that will avoid a no-deal outcome and the pound will rally sharply as that becomes a reality.
And that’s really all for today. Bloomberg will be interviewing several FOMC members in Jackson Hole, so that should offer some background color, but at this point, it is all about Chairman Powell tomorrow. Until then, tight ranges are the most likely outcome.