The PMI data released
Showed just how fast growth has decreased
Tis services that
Have fallen so flat
This virus is truly a beast
But yesterday two bits of news
May help prevent any more blues
The Fed started things
By spreading their wings
And buying all debt that accrues
As well, in a break from the past
The Germans decided at last
To open the taps
As well as, perhaps
Support debt Italians amassed
And finally, where it began
The virus, that is, in Wuhan
Two months from their dawn
Restrictions are gone
Defining the lockdown’s lifespan
Markets have a much better tone this morning as traders and investors react to two very important responses to the ongoing Covid-19 crisis. The first thing that is getting a positive, albeit delayed, response is the Fed’s enactment of a series of new programs including support for CP, mortgage-backed securities, primary dealers and money market funds as well as embarking on QE Infinity, buying $75 billion of Treasuries and $50 billion of mortgage-backed securities every day this week, and then on into the future. Previous concerns about the size of the Fed’s balance sheet relative to the US economy have been completely dismissed, and you can bet that we will soon see a Fed balance sheet with $10 trillion in assets, nearly 50% as large as the economy. But the announcement, while at first not getting quite the positive impact desired, seems to be filtering through into analysis and is definitely seen in a more positive light this morning than yesterday at this time.
The second piece of news was that not only is Germany going to embark on a €750 billion spending program to help the economy, but, more importantly, they are willing to support Italy via European wide programs like the European Stability Mechanism, and even jointly issued coronaviru bonds, to prevent a further catastrophe there. In truth, that seems to be a bigger deal than the Fed, as the long-term implications are much greater and point to a real chance that the European experiment of integration could eventually work. If they move down the path to jointly issue and support debt available to all members, that is a massive change, and likely a long term positive for the single currency. We have to see if they will actually go forward, but it is the most promising structural comment in Europe in years, perhaps even since the euro was formed.
However, we cannot forget that the current reality remains harsh, and were reminded of such by this morning’s Flash PMI data, which, unsurprisingly, fell to record lows throughout Europe and the UK. Services were hit much harder than Manufacturing with readings of 29.0 in France, 34.5 in Germany, 31.4 in the Eurozone and 35.7 in the UK. Japan also released their data, which was equally dismal at 32.7 for Services PMI there. And they added to the story by releasing Department Store Sales, which fell a healthy 12.2%. Of course, everyone knows that the data is going to be awful for the time being, and since we saw China’s PMI data last month, this was expected. Granted, analysts had penciled in slightly higher numbers, but let’s face it, everybody was simply guessing. Let’s put it this way, we are going to see horrific data for at least the next month, so it will have to be extraordinarily bad to really garner a negative market reaction. This is already built into the price structure. While the US has historically looked far more closely at ISM data, to be released next week, than PMI data, we do see the US numbers later this morning, with forecasts at 42.0 for Services and 43.5 for Manufacturing.
So the data is not the driver today, which has seen a more classic risk-on framework, rather I think it is not only the absorption of the Fed and German actions, but also, perhaps, the news from Wuhan that the restrictions on travel, imposed on January 23, are being lifted, nearly two months to the day after imposition. Arguably, that defines the maximum lockdown period, although yesterday President Trump hinted that the US period will be much shorter, with 14 or 15 days mooted. If that is the case, and I would place the start date as this week, we are looking at heading back to our offices come April 6. If the Fed is successful in preventing financial institution collapse, and Congress finally passes a stimulus bill to address the massive income dislocation that is ongoing, (which they will almost certainly do in the next two days), there is every chance that while Q2 GDP will be hit hard, the panic inducing numbers of -30% GDP growth (Morgan Stanley’s forecast) or -50% GDP growth (St Louis Fed President Bullard’s forecast), will be referred to as the height of the panic. We shall see.
But taking a look at markets this morning, we see the dollar under pressure across the board, with the Norwegian krone today’s champion, rallying 5.4% as a follow on to yesterday’s reversal and ultimate 1.2% gain. But the pound has bounced 2.0% this morning along with SEK and AUD is higher by 1.7%. It is entirely possible that what we are seeing is a relief in the funding markets as the Fed’s actions have made USD available more widely around the world and reduced some of that pressure.
EMG markets are seeing similar strength in their currencies, led by MXN (+2.6%) and HUF (+2.3%), but every currency in both blocs is higher vs. the greenback today. Equity markets are all green as well, with major rallies in Asia (Nikkei +7.1%, Hang Seng +4.5%, Shanghai +2.7%) and Europe (DAX +6.25%, CAC +5.25%, FTSE 100 +4.0%) with US equity futures limit up in all three indices. Bonds, meanwhile, have sold off slightly, with yields higher in both the US and Germany by 2bps. I think given the overall backdrop, bonds are unlikely to sell off sharply anytime soon, especially given the central bank promises to buy unlimited quantities of them.
And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention gold, which is up 2.5% today and 6.2% since Friday’s close as investors realize that all the money printing and fiscal stimulus is likely to lead to a much different view on inflation, namely that it is going to rise in the future.
Volatility remains the watchword as 5% daily moves in the equity market, even when they are up moves, remain extremely taxing on all trading activities. Market liquidity remains suspect in most markets, with bid-ask spreads still far wider than we’ve come to expect. Forward FX spreads of 5-10 pips for dates under 1 year are not uncommon in the majors, let alone in things like MXN or BRL. Keep that in mind as you prepare for your balance sheet rolling programs later this week.
Good luck and stay safe