In Germany and the US
The crisis made hawks acquiesce
To spending more dough
Despite and although
Things ultimately will be a mess
There is only one story of note this morning, at least from the market’s collective perspective, and that is the news that the Senate has agreed the details of a stimulus package in the US. The price tag is currently pegged at $2.0 trillion, although it would not surprise me if when this bill gets to the House, they add a bit more lard. Fiscal hawks have been set aside and ignored as the immediate concerns over the virtual halt in the US (and global) economy has taken precedence over everything else. The package offers support for small and medium sized businesses, direct cash payments to individuals and increased allocations to states in order to help them cope with Covid-19. But overall, what it does is demonstrate that the US is not going to sit by and watch as the economy slides into a deep recession.
And that seems to be the signal that markets were awaiting. We have already seen Germany discard decades of fiscal prudence in their effort to address the collapse in business activity there. In fact, their social demands are even greater than in the US, with no groups of more than 2 people allowed to congregate together. While it cannot be a surprise that the IFO indicator was revised lower this morning, with the Expectations Index falling to within a whisker of its financial crisis lows of 79.2. The real question is if the measures invoked to stop the spread of the virus continue for another month, just how low can this reading go? The one thing that is clear is that we are going to continue to see some unprecedented damage to economic statistics as the next several months evolve.
But none of that matters today, at least in the world of finance. The promise of more money being spent has led to some spectacular rallies in equity markets in the past twenty-four hours. By now you are all aware of yesterday’s late day melt-up in the US, where the Dow closed higher by 11.4%, outpacing even the NASDAQ (+8.1%). And overnight, the Nikkei rocketed 8% higher as a follow-through on the US news and despite the news that the 2020 Tokyo Olympics are now going to be the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. The rest of Asia rose as well (Hang Seng +3.8%, Shanghai +2.7%, Australia +5.5%) and Europe started out on fire. But a funny thing happened in the past hour, it seems that more sober heads took over.
European equity indices, which had exploded higher at the opening (DAX +4.4%, CAC +4.9%) have given back most of those early gains and are now mixed with the DAX lower by 0.4% although the CAC clinging to +0.9% gain. US futures, which were similarly much higher earlier, between 2% and 3%, have now erased all those gains and are now marginally lower on the session. In fact, I suspect that this is going to continue to be the situation in equity markets as each piece of new news will need to be absorbed into the pricing matrix. And for now, there is just as much bad news as good, thus driving significant volatility in this asset class going forward.
Bond markets are seeing similar style moves, alternating between risk-on and risk-off, although with much of the leverage having already been wiped out of these markets, and central banks around the world directly supporting them through massive QE purchases, the magnitude of the moves are much smaller. Early this morning, we saw Treasuries under pressure, with yields higher by as much as 4bps, but now they have actually rallied, and the 10-year yield is lower by 1bp. There is similar price action in European government bond markets although the recent rally has not quite reversed all the early losses. Of course, the ECB’s €750 billion program is dwarfed by the Fed’s QE Infinity, so perhaps that should not be a great surprise.
And finally, turning to the FX markets, the dollar remains under pressure, as we have seen all week, as fears over the availability of dollars has diminished somewhat in the wake of the Fed’s actions. This has led to NOK once again being the leader in the clubhouse, rallying a further 2.1% this morning which takes its movement this week to 7.5%! It seems that the first batch of weekly FX flow statistics from the Norgesbank confirm that they did, indeed, intervene earlier this week, which given the price action, can be the only explanation. (I am, however, proud of them for not publicly blaring it, rather simply doing the job and allowing markets to respond.) And given the oil price collapse and the damage that will do to the Norwegian economy, it makes sense that they would want to manage the situation. But most currencies are firmer so far this week, with AUD (+3.8%) and SEK (+2.75%) recouping at least a part of what had been devastating recent losses. As to today’s session, aside from NOK, the pound is the next best performer, rallying 0.9% on the strength of a new liquidity program by the BOE as well as what appears to be hope that recent government pronouncements regarding social distancing and shelter in place rules, seems to demonstrate Boris is finally going to come into line with the rest of the world’s governments on the proper containment strategy.
EMG currencies are also performing well this morning as the broad-based dollar decline lifts most of them. KRW is the best performer today, +1.6%, which is in line with last night’s euphoria over the US stimulus bill. MXN had been sharply higher early but has since given up some of its gains and is now higher by only 1% as I type. The market is not pleased with AMLO’s attitude toward the virus, nor it seems are the Mexican people based on the erosion in his approval ratings. Meanwhile, the other major LATAM economy, Brazil, is poised to see its currency weaken even further as President Bolsonaro also ignores the current protocols of self-quarantine or shelter-in-place and encourages his nation to ignore the virus and go about their lives. I have a feeling that President Bolsonaro is going to be a one-term president. BRL hasn’t opened yet but has fallen more than 2% this week already. I expect more will come.
On the data front, yesterday’s PMI data while awful, was actually not nearly as bad as the data seen in Europe or Asia. This morning brings Durable Goods (exp -1.0%, -0.4% ex transport) although these are February numbers, so will not really tell us much about the current state of the economy. Rather, all eyes are turning to tomorrow’s Initial Claims data, to see just how high that number will climb. There are numerous stories of state employment websites crashing from the overflow in volumes.
In the end, while the stimulus bill is good news, the proof remains in the pudding, as it were, and we need to see if all of that spending will help stabilize, then lift the US economy back to its prior trajectory. If this virtual lockdown lasts past Easter, the economic damage will become much more difficult to reverse and will make the hoped for V-shaped recovery that much harder to achieve. For now, though, we can only watch and wait. The one thing that remains clear is that in the end, the US dollar remains the haven of all havens, no matter the fiscal situation in the US. It will always be preferred to the alternative.
Good luck and stay safe