Not So Fast

While everyone thought it was nifty
The Fed was about to cut fifty
Said Jay, not so fast
We’ll not be harassed
A quarter’s enough of a gift-y

Once again, Chairman Powell had a significant impact on the markets when he explained that the Fed is fiercely independent, will not be bullied by the White House, and will only cut rates if they deem it necessary because of slowing growth or, more importantly, financial instability. Specifically, he said the Fed is concerned about and carefully watching for signs of “a loss of confidence or financial market reaction.” In this context, “financial market reaction” is a euphemism for falling stock prices. If ever there was a question about the existence of the Fed put, it was laid to rest yesterday. Cutting to the chase, Powell said that the Fed’s primary concern, at least right now, is the stock market. If it falls too far, too fast, we will cut rates as quickly as we can. Later in his speech, he gave a shout out to the fact that low inflation seems not to be a temporary phenomenon, but that was simply thinly veiled cover for the first part, a financial market reaction.

There are two things to note about these comments. First, the Fed, and really every major central bank, continues to believe they are in complete control of both their respective economies and the financial markets therein. And while it is absolutely true this has been the case since the GFC ended, at least with respect to the financial markets, it is also absolutely true that the law of diminishing returns is at work, meaning it takes much more effort and stimulus to get the same result as achieved ten years ago. At some point, probably in the not too distant future, markets are going to begin to decline and regardless of what those central banks say or do, will not be deterred from actually clearing. It will not be pretty. And second, the ongoing myth of central banks being proactive, rather than reactive, is so ingrained in the central bank zeitgeist that there is no possibility they will recognize the fact that all of their actions are, as the axiom has it, a day late and a dollar short.

But for now, they are still in command. Yesterday’s price action was informed by the fact that despite the weakest Consumer Confidence data in two years and weaker than expected New Home Sales, Powell did not affirm a 50bp cut was on its way in July. Since the market has been counting on that outcome, the result was a mild risk off session. Equity prices suffered in the US and continued to do so around the world last night and Treasuries settled below 2.00%. However, gold prices, which have been rocking lately, gave up early gains when Powell nixed the idea of a 50bp cut. And the dollar? Well, it remains mixed at best. It did rally slightly yesterday but continues to be broadly lower than before the FOMC meeting last week.

We also heard from two other Fed speakers yesterday, Bullard and Barkin, with mixed results. Bullard, the lone dissenter from the meeting made clear that he thought a 25bp reduction was all that was needed, a clear reference to Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari’s essay published on Friday calling for a 50bp cut. However, Thomas Barkin, from the Richmond Fed, sounded far less certain that the time was right for a rate cut. He sounds like he is one of the dots looking for no change this year.

And the thing is, that’s really all the market cares about right now, is what the Fed and its brethren central banks are planning. Data is a sidelight, used to embellish an idea if it suits, and ignored if it doesn’t. The trade story, of course, still matters, and given the increasingly hardened rhetoric from both sides, it appears the market is far less certain of a positive outcome. That portends the opportunity for a significant move on Monday after the Trump-Xi meeting. And based on the way things have played out for the past two years, my money is on a resumption of the dialog and some soothing words, as that will help underpin stocks in both NY and Shanghai, something both leaders clearly want. But until then, I expect a general lack of direction as investors make their bets on the outcome.

One little mentioned thing on the data front is that we have seen every regional Fed manufacturing survey thus far released show significantly more weakness than expected. Philly, Empire State, Chicago, Richmond and Dallas have all fallen sharply. That does not bode well for economic growth in either Q2 or Q3, which, in a twisted way, will play right into the President’s hands as the Fed will be forced to cut rates as a response. Strange times indeed.

This morning, two data points are released; Durable Goods (exp -0.1%, +0.1% ex transports) and the Goods Trade Balance (-$71.8B). Look for weakness in these numbers to help perk of the equity market as anticipation will grow that more rate cutting is in the offing. And look for the dollar to suffer for the same reason.

Good luck
Adf