Tag Archives: #covid

All Stressed

Posted on by

It started in China’s Great Plains
Where factories for supply chains
Were built wall to wall
But now they have all
Been shuttered to stop Covid’s gains

However, the sitch has regressed
While China, their data’s, repressed
Thus Covid’s now spreading
And everywhere heading
No shock, stocks worldwide are all stressed

I know each and every one of you will be incredulous that the G20 meeting of FinMins and central bankers this weekend in Saudi Arabia was not enough to stop Covid-19 in its tracks. I certainly was given the number of statements that we have heard in recent weeks by central bankers explaining that if the virus spreads, they will save the day!

But clearly, whatever power monetary or fiscal power has, it is not well placed to solve a healthcare crisis that is rapidly spreading around the world. This weekend may well have been the tipping point that shakes equity investors out of their dream-induced state. While the steady growth in numbers of infections and fatalities in China remains constant, something which seems to have been accepted by investors everywhere, the sudden jump in Covid cases in South Korea and, even more surprisingly, in Italy looks to have been just the ticket to sow doubt amongst the bullish investment set. And just like that, as markets are wont to do, fear is the primary sentiment this morning.

A quick market recap shows that equity markets worldwide have been decimated, although Europe (DAX -3.5%, CAC -3.5%, FTSE 100 -3.2%, FTSE MIB (Italy) -4.6%) has felt the brunt more than Asia (Nikkei -0.4%, Hang Seng -1.8%, Kospi -3.9%, Shanghai -0.3%). And US futures? Not a pretty picture at this point, with all three down more than 2.5% as I type.

Benefitting from the risk-off sentiment are Treasury bonds (yields -8bps to 1.39%) and bunds (-6bps to -0.50%), while the barbarous relic itself is up 2.4% to $1682/oz. And you thought gold was no longer important!

Finally, in the currency markets, the dollar is king once again, gaining against all comers but one, quite sharply in some cases. The yen has regained some of its haven status, rallying 0.25% this morning, although it remains far lower than just last Thursday. But the rest of the G10 is under pressure with NOK (-1.0%) falling the most as oil prices (WTI -4.0%) are getting crushed today. By contrast, CAD (-0.45%) seems almost strong in the face of the weakness in oil. But aside from the yen, the rest of the bloc is lower by at least 0.25%, and there is nothing ongoing in any of these nations that is driving the story, this is pure risk aversion.

In the EMG space, the story is more of the same, with the entire space lower vs. the dollar today although the biggest losers may be a bit of a surprise. Pesos are feeling the heat with both Mexico (-1.2%) and Chile (-1.1%) the worst performers in the space. The latter is a direct response to the weakness in copper prices, while the former has multiple problems, with oil’s decline just the latest. In fact, since last Thursday morning, the peso has fallen nearly 3.0% as we are beginning to see the very large long MXN carry position start to be unwound. It seems that long MXN had the same perception amongst currency investors as long the S&P had for equity investors. The thing is, at least according to the CFTC figures from last week, there is still a long way to go to reach neutrality. We are still more than 12% from the peso’s all-time lows of 22.03 set in early 2017, but if Covid continues to evade control, look for that level to be tested in the coming months (weeks?).

And that’s today’s story really. There are some political issues in Germany, as the ruling CDU finds itself in the middle of a leadership contest with no clear direction, while Italy’s League leader, Matteo Salvini, is hurling potshots at the weakened Giuseppe Conti government. But even under rock solid leadership, the euro would be lower this morning as would each nation’s stock market. Perhaps of more concern is the news that China, despite the ongoing spread of Covid-19, was relaxing some of its quarantine restrictions as it has become clearer by the day that the economic impact on the mainland is going to be quite substantial. President Xi cannot afford to have GDP growth slow substantially as that would break his tacit(?) deal with the people of more government control for continued material improvement. It has been a full month since virtually anything has been happening with respect to manufacturing throughout China and we are seeing more and more factories elsewhere (South Korea, Eastern Europe) shut down as supply chains have broken. Shipping rates have collapsed with more than 25% of pre-Covid activity having disappeared. This will not be repaired quickly I fear.

Turning to the data, which is arguably still too early to really reflect the impact of the virus, this week brings mostly secondary numbers, although we do see core PCE, which is forecast to have increased by a tick.

Tuesday Case-Shiller Home Prices 2.85%
  Consumer Confidence 132.1
Wednesday New Home Sales 715K
Thursday Q4 GDP 2.1%
  Durable Goods -1.5%
  -ex transport 0.2%
  Initial Claims 211K
Friday Personal Income 0.4%
  Personal Spending 0.3%
  Core PCE 0.2% (1.7% Y/Y)
  Chicago PMI 46.0
  Michigan Sentiment 100.7

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, the Fed has made it quite clear that they have an entirely new view on inflation, namely that 2.0% is the new 0.0%, and that they are going to try to force things higher for much longer to make up for their internally perceived failures of reaching this mythical target. We all know that the cost of living has risen far more rapidly than the measured inflation statistics, but that does not fit into their models, nor does it given them an excuse to continue to pump more liquidity into markets. In fact, it would not be that surprising to see them double down if today’s declines continue for several days. After all, that would imply tightening financial conditions.

But for now today is the quintessential risk-off day. Look for the dollar to remain king while equities fall alongside Treasury yields.

Good luck
Adf

Fears Melt

Posted on by

As Covid fears melt
Like the snowpack during spring
The yen, too, recedes

Remember when there was a universal idea that if the world’s second largest economy, and its fastest growing one at that, essentially shut down due to complications from an exogenous force (Covid-19), it would force investors to show concern over their risk allocations and seek out haven assets? Me neither! Remarkably, equity investors have become so convinced that central banks collectively have their “backs” that there is virtually no interest in limiting positions. This is certainly true across all equity markets, where after a mere twenty-four hours of modest concern over the fact that Q1 iPhone sales would be negatively impacted by Covid-19, the all clear signal was given. This time that signal took the form of the Chinese government announcing that they would be supporting the domestic airline industry, either encouraging takeovers of smaller airlines in financial trouble by their larger brethren, or via direct capital injections into companies. My sense is we will see both of those actions in order to be certain that no airlines go under.

Headlines like the following: “Chinese Companies Say They Can’t Afford to Pay Workers Now” from a Bloomberg story are seen as irrelevant and have no impact on risk assessment. Apparently the idea that the Chinese private sector, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP growth and 90% of new jobs, has basically been shuttered is not relevant in the calculations made by equity investors. Let me just say that the idea of risk has certainly evolved lately.

But this is the story. Equity investors are convinced that central banks will never allow stock markets to decline again and will do everything in their power to prevent any such decline. And while that may be true with regard to central bank efforts, there is a potential flaw in the theory. Central bank power, just like virtually everything else, is subject to the law of diminishing returns, and we are already seeing that situation in Europe and Japan. So even though central bankers may try to stop all declines, do not be surprised when a situation arises where they cannot do so.

Interestingly, bond market investors have a somewhat different view of the landscape as we continue to see interest in Treasuries and bunds with yields in both instruments continuing to grind slowly lower. However, for now, the equity markets are in the spotlight and driving the narrative.

So, with this in mind, it is easier to understand that Asian markets mostly rallied last night (Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng +0.5) although Shanghai edged lower by -0.15%. European markets are rocking this morning with the DAX (+0.55%), CAC (+0.7%) and FTSE100 (+0.8%) leading the way higher despite news that Adidas and Puma have seen sales collapse to virtually zero in China. US futures are also pointing higher, on the order of 0.3% as we would not want to be left out of the action here.

Treasury yields continue to sink, however, with the 10-year down to 1.56% while German bunds have fallen to -0.42%. So there is clearly some demand for haven assets, perhaps just not as much as we would expect. And finally, in the FX market, havens have lost their appeal. Most notably, the yen has tumbled 0.5% this morning, trading well back through 110 and touching its weakest point since last May. Clearly, there is no fear in FX traders’ collective minds. Funnily enough, gold prices continue to rally, having closed above $1600/oz yesterday for the first time since March 2013, and are higher by a further 0.5% this morning.

With this as a backdrop, it is very difficult to paint a coherent picture of the markets today, at least the FX markets. In the G10 space, we have already discussed the yen’s decline, marking it as the worst performing major currency today. On the flip side, NOK is the big winner, +0.5% as oil prices rebound on the news that Chinese airlines are not all going to disappear. CAD is the second best performer, also on the back of the oil news, although it has only managed a 0.25% gain. And other than those three currencies, nothing else has moved more than 10 basis points from last night’s closing levels. On the data front overseas, UK CPI was released a tick higher than expected at 1.8%, although the pound has seen exactly zero movement on the back of the data. If nothing else, new BOE Governor Andrew Bailey must be happy that the road to 2% inflation is not quite as steep as previously expected.

In the EMG space, movement has been even more muted with the biggest gainers ZAR (+0.3%) and RUB (+0.25%) on the back stronger commodity and oil prices while the biggest decliners have been HUF (-0.3%) and TRY (-0.25%) with the former seeing profit taking after a nearly 2% rally in the wake of central bank discussions of tighter policy to fight inflation there, while the lira is responding to a rate cut of 50 bps as the central bank seeks to unwind the drastic tightening it implemented in mid-2018 amid major inflationary pressures. And while I wish there were some more interesting stories, the reality is the big narrative of central banks preventing risk sell-offs remains the only theme in the market.

Looking at this morning’s data we see Housing Starts (exp 1428K), Building Permits (1450K) and PPI (1.6%, 1.3% ex food & energy). Then at 2:00 we get a look at the FOMC Minutes from January’s meeting. Fed watchers are focusing on any discussion regarding the balance sheet and repo as it remains clear there is not going to be any interest rate change anytime soon.

So that’s what we have for today. Arguably, the dollar is ever so slightly on its back foot, but the movement has been infinitesimal. While I continue to believe that ultimately the Fed will ease policy further, for now, the dollar remains the brightest bulb in the box, and so should continue to attract buyers.

Good luck
Adf

 

Forecasts to Hell

Posted on by

The company named like a fruit
Said Covid was going to shoot
Its forecasts to hell
So risk assets fell
And havens all rallied to boot

Essentially, since the beginning of the Lunar New Year, there have been two competing narratives. First was the idea that the spread of the Covid virus would have a significantly detrimental impact on the global economy, reducing both production, due to the interruption of supply chains, and consumption, as the world’s second largest economy went into lockdown. This would result in a risk-off theme with haven assets in significant demand. The second was that, just like the SARS virus from 2003, this would be a temporary phenomenon and the fact that central banks around the world have been ramping up policy support by cutting rates and buying assets means that risk assets would continue their relentless march higher. And quite frankly, while there were a handful of days where the first thesis held sway, generally speaking, equity markets at least, are all-in on the second thesis.

At least that was true until today, when THE bellwether stock in the global equity markets explained that Q1 sales would miss forecasts due not only to production delays caused by supply chain interruptions, but to reduced sales as well. This news certainly put a crimp in the bull theory that the virus impact will be temporary and we have seen equity markets around the world suffer, while Treasuries rally, as fears are reignited over the ultimate impact of the CoVid virus.

While this author is no virologist, and does not pretend to have any special insight into how things with Covid evolve from here, long experience informs me that government efforts have been far more focused on controlling the message than controlling the virus. Confidence plays such an important part in today’s economy, and if the first narrative above is the one that takes hold, then there is very little that governments will be able to do to prevent a more substantial downturn and likely recession. Remember, at least in the G10, most central banks are basically out of ammunition with respect to their abilities to pump up the economy, so if the populace hunkers down because of fear, things could get ugly pretty quickly. And with that cheerful thought, let’s take a tour of the markets this morning.

It turns out the tax
On goods and services was
A growth disaster

During the US holiday weekend, we received a stunningly bad Q4 GDP report from Japan, with a -1.6% Q/Q result which turned into a -6.3% annualized number. Not only was that significantly worse than expected, but it was the worst outturn since the last time the Japanese government raised the GST in 2014. So, in their effort to be fiscally prudent, they blew an even bigger hole in their budget! But the yen didn’t really mind, as it remains a key safe haven, and while it weakened ever so slightly yesterday, this morning’s fear based markets has allowed it to recoup those losses and then some. So as I type, the yen is stronger by 0.15% today. Certainly, selling yen is a fraught operation in a market with as big a potential fear catalyst as currently exists.

Meanwhile, that other erstwhile growth engine, Germany, once again demonstrated that the idea of a rebound this year is on extremely shaky ground. Early this morning the ZEW surveys were released with the Expectations reading falling sharply to 8.7, while Current Situations fell to -15.7. While the numbers themselves have no independent meaning, both results were far worse than expected and crushed the modest rebound that had been seen in December. The euro has been under pressure since the release of the data, falling to a new low for the move and continuing its streak of down days, now up to 10 of the past twelve sessions, with the other two sessions closing essentially flat. The euro story has shown no signs of turning around on its own, and for the euro to stop declining we will need to see the dollar story change. Right now, that seems unlikely.

And generally speaking, the dollar is simply outperforming all other currencies. Versus the EMG bloc, the dollar is higher across the board, with not a single one of these currencies able to rally against the greenback. Today’s biggest decliners are the RUB (-0.6%) as oil prices fall, KRW (-0.5%) as concerns grow over Covid, and ZAR (-0.45%) as both commodity prices decline and global growth fears increase. In the G10 space, it should be no surprise that both AUD (-0.5%) and NZD (-0.7%) are the worst performers (China related) as well as NOK (-0.7%) as oil suffers over concerns of slowing global growth. It seems like we’ve heard this story before.

The one currency doing well today, other than the yen, is the British pound (+0.2%) as UK Employment data, released early this morning, was generally better than expected, with the 3M/3M Employment Change slipping a much less than expected 28K to 180K, a still quite robust number. Interestingly, yesterday saw the pound under pressure as PM Johnson’s Europe Advisor, David Frost, laid out the UK’s goals as ditching all EU social constructs and simply focusing on trade. That is at odds with the hinted at EU view, which is they want the UK to follow all their edicts even though they are no longer in the club. Look for more fireworks as we go forward on this subject.

Looking ahead to this week, the US data is generally second-tier, although we will see FOMC Minutes tomorrow.

Today Empire Manufacturing 5.0
Wednesday Housing Starts 1420K
  Building Permits 1450K
  PPI 0.1% (1.6% Y/Y)
  -ex food & energy 0.1% (1.3% Y/Y)
  FOMC Minutes  
Thursday Initial Claims 210K
  Philly Fed 11.0
Friday Leading Indicators 0.4%
  Existing Home Sales 5.45M

Source: Bloomberg

So lots of housing data, which given the interest rate structure should be pretty decent. Of course, the problem is the reason the interest rate structure is so attractive to home buyers is the plethora of problems elsewhere in the economy. In addition, we have seven Fed speakers during the rest of the week with a nice mix of hawks and doves. Although it seems unlikely that anybody will change their views, be alert to Dallas Fed President Kaplan’s comments tomorrow and Friday as he is the only FOMC member who has admitted that continuing to pump up the balance sheet could cause excesses in risk taking.

At this point, there is nothing on the horizon that indicates the dollar’s run is over. Regarding the euro, technically there is nothing between current levels and the early 2017 lows of 1.0341 although I would expect some congestion at 1.0500.

Good luck
Adf