Author Archives: fxpoet

Deferred

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In Europe, despite what you’ve heard
The rebound could well be deferred
The ECB told
The banks there to hold
More capital lest they’re interred

It seems that the ECB is still a bit concerned about the future of the Eurozone economy.  Perhaps it was the news that the Unemployment rate in Spain jumped up to 15.3%.  Or perhaps it was the news that cases of Covid are growing again in various hot spots across the Continent.  But whatever the reason, the ECB has just informed the Eurozone banking community that dividends are taboo, at least for the rest of 2020, and that they need to continue to bolster their capital ratios.  Now, granted, European banks have been having a difficult time for many years as the fallout from Negative interest rates has been accumulating each year.  So, not only have lending spreads shrunk, but given the Eurozone economy has been so slothful for so long, the opportunities for those banks to lend and earn even that spread have been reduced.  It should be no surprise that the banking community there is in difficult shape.

However, from the banks’ perspective, this is a major problem.  Their equity performance has been dismal, and cutting dividends is not about to help them.  So, the cost of raising more capital continues to rise while the potential profit in the business continues to fall.  This strikes me as a losing proposition, and one that is likely to lead to another wave of European bank mergers.  Do not be surprised if, in a few years, each major country in Europe has only two significant banks, and both are partly owned by the state.  Banking is no longer a private industry, but over the course of the past decade, since the GFC, has become a utility.  But unlike utilities that make a solid return on capital and are known for their steady dividend payouts, these are going to be owned and directed by the state, with any profits going back to the state.  I foresee the conservatorship model the US Treasury used for FNMA and FHLMC as the future of European banking.

The reason I bring this up is because amidst all the cooing about how the EU has finally changed the trajectory of Europe with their groundbreaking Pandemic relief package, and how this will establish the opportunity for the euro to become the world’s favored reserve currency, there are still many fundamental flaws in Europe, and specifically in the Eurozone, which will effectively prevent this from happening.  In fact, there was a recent study by Invesco Ltd, that showed central banks around the world expect to increase their reserve allocation to USD in the next year, not reduce those allocations.  This has been a key plank for the dollar bears, the idea that the world will no longer want dollars as a reserve asset.  Whatever one thinks about the US banking community and whether they serve a valuable purpose properly, the one truth is that they are basically the strongest banks in the world from a capital perspective.  And in the current environment, no country can be dominant without a strong banking sector.

In fact, this may be the strongest argument for the dollar to remain overpriced compared to all those econometric models that focus on the current account and trade flows.  A quick look at China’s banks shows they are likely all insolvent, with massive amounts of unreported, but uncollectable loans outstanding.  China has been the most active user of the extend and pretend model, rolling loans over to insolvent state companies in order to make it appear those loans will eventually be repaid.  Only US banks have the ability to write off significant amounts of their loan portfolio (remember, in Q2 the number was $38 billion) and remain viable and active institutions.  In fact, this is one of the main reasons the US economy has outperformed Europe for the past decade.  Covid or no, European banks will continue to drag the European economy down, mark my words.  And with that, the euro’s opportunity for significant gains will be limited.

But that is a much longer-term view.  Let us look at today’s markets now.  If pressed, I would describe them as ever so slightly risk-off, but the evidence is not that convincing.  Equity markets in around the world have been mixed, with few being able to follow the US markets continued strength.  For example, last night saw the Nikkei (-0.25%) slide along with Sydney (-0.4%) while both Shanghai and the Hang Seng rallied a solid 0.7%.  Europe, on the other hand has much more red than green, with the DAX (-0.35%) and CAC (-0.75%) leading the way, although Spain’s IBEX (+0.3%) seems to be rebounding from yesterday’s losses despite the employment data.  Meanwhile US futures, which were essentially unchanged all evening, have just turned modestly lower.

The bond market, though, is a little out of kilter with the stock market, as yields throughout Europe have moved higher despite the stock market performances there.  Meanwhile, Treasury yields are a half basis point lower than yesterday’s close, although yesterday saw the 10-year yield rise 4bps as risk fears diminished.  Gold and silver are consolidating this morning, with the former down 0.85% as I type, and the latter down 5.0%.  But in the overnight session, gold did trade to a new all-time high, at $1981/oz.  The rally in gold has been extremely impressive this year, and after touching new highs, there are now a few analysts who are growing concerned a correction is imminent.  From a trading perspective, that certainly makes sense, but in the end, the underlying story remains quite positive, and is likely to do so as long as central banks believe it is their duty to print as much money as they can as quickly as they can.

As to the dollar, it is broadly firmer this morning, although the movement has not been that impressive.  In the G10, kiwi is the biggest loser, down 0.5%, as talk of additional QE is heating up there.  But other than SEK (-0.4%), the rest of the block is just a bit softer, with CHF and JPY actually 0.1% firmer at this time.  Emerging market activity shows RUB (-0.8%) as the weakest of the lot, although we are also seeing softness in TRY and ZAR (-0.6% each) and MXN (-0.5%).  Softening oil and commodity prices are clearly not helping either the rand or peso, but as to TRY, it remains unclear what is driving it these days.

On the data front, yesterday saw Durable Goods print largely as expected, showing the initial bounce in the economy.  This morning brings Case Shiller Home Prices (exp 4.05%) and Consumer Confidence (95.0), neither of which seems likely to move the needle.  With the Fed on tap for tomorrow, despite the fact they are likely to leave well enough alone, there will be much ink spilled over the meeting.

In the end, the short-term trend remains for the dollar to soften further, today notwithstanding, but I don’t believe in the dollar collapse theory.  As such, receivables hedgers should really be looking for places to step in and add to your programs.

Good luck and stay safe

Adf

 

 

 

Hardly a Sign

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The thing that I don’t understand
Is why people think it’s not planned
The dollar’s decline
Is hardly a sign
The FOMC’s lost command

Based on the breathless commentary over the weekend and this morning, one would have thought that the dollar is in freefall.  It’s not!  Yes, the dollar has been sliding for the past two months, but that is a blink of an eye compared to the fact that it has been trending higher since its nadir a bit more than twelve years ago.  In fact, if one uses the euro as a proxy, which many people do, at its current level, 1.1725 as I type, the single currency remains below the average rate over its entire life since January 1999.  The point is, the current situation is hardly unprecedented nor even significant historically, it is simply a time when the dollar is weakening.

It is, however, instructive to consider what is happening that has the punditry in such a tizzy.  Arguably, the key reason the dollar has been declining lately is because real US interest rates have been falling more rapidly than real rates elsewhere.  After all, the Eurozone has had negative nominal rates since 2014.  10-year German bunds went negative in May 2019 and have remained there ever since.  Given that inflation has been positive, albeit weak, there real rates have been negative for years so the world is quite familiar with negative rates in Europe.  The US story, however, is quite different.  While nominal rates have not yet crossed the rubicon, real rates have moved from positive to negative quite recently and done so rapidly.  So, what we are really witnessing is the FX market responding to this relative change in rates, at least for the most part.  Undoubtedly, there are dollar sellers who are bearish because of their concerns over the macro growth story in the US, the second wave of Covid infections in the South and West and because of the growth in US debt issuance.  But history has shown that the most enduring impacts on a currency’s value are driven by relative interest rates and their movement.  And that is what we are seeing, US rates are falling relative to others and so the dollar is falling alongside them.

In other words, the current price action is quite normal in the broad scheme of things, and not worthy of the delirium it seems to be inspiring.  As I mentioned Friday, this is also what is driving the precious metals complex, which has seen further strength this morning (XAU +$40 or 2.1%, XAG +$1.50 or 6.7%).  And it must be noted that gold is now at a new, all-time nominal high of $1943/oz.  But since we are focusing on the concept of real valuation, while the price is higher than we saw in 2011 on a nominal basis, when adjusted for inflation it still lags pretty substantially, by about 18%, and both current and 2011 levels are significantly below gold’s inflation adjusted price seen in 1980 right after the second oil crisis.

However, the fact that the current reporting of the situation appears somewhat overhyped does not mean that the dollar cannot fall further.  And in fact, I expect that to be the case for as long as the Fed continues to add liquidity, in any form, to the economy.  Markets move at the margin, and the current marginal change is the decline in US real interest rates, hence the dollar is likely to continue to fall if US rates do as well.

The current dollar weakness begs the question about overall risk attitude.  So, a quick look around equity markets globally today shows a mixed picture at best, certainly not a strong view in either direction.  For instance, last night saw the Nikkei edge lower by 0.2% (after having been closed since Wednesday) and the Hang Seng (-0.4%) also slide.  But Shanghai (+0.25%) managed to eke out small gains.  In Europe, the DAX (+0.3%) is pushing ahead after the IFO figures bounced back much further than expected, although the CAC and FTSE 100 (-0.2% each) have both suffered slightly.  A special mention needs to be made for Spain’s IBEX (-1.3%) as the sharp increase in Covid infections seen in Catalonia has resulted in several European nations, notably the UK and Sweden, reimposing a 14-day quarantine period on people returning from Spain on holiday.  Naturally, the result is holidays that had been booked are being quickly canceled.  As to US futures, they are currently in the green, with the NASDAQ up 1.0%, although the others are far less enthusiastic.

Bond markets continue to show declining yields, with Treasuries down another basis point plus and now yielding 0.57%.  Bunds, too, are seeing demand, with yields there down 3 bps, although both Spanish and Italian debt are being sold off with yields edging higher.  In other words, the bond market is not pointing to a risk-on session.

Finally, the dollar is weak across the board, against both G10 and EMG currencies.  In the latter bloc, ZAR is the leader, up 1.3% on the back of the huge rally in precious metals, but we are also seeing the CE4 currencies all keeping pace with the euro, which is higher by 0.6% this morning.  As a group, those four currencies are higher by about 0.65%.  Asian currencies also performed well, but not quite to the standards of the European set, but it is hard to find a currency that declined overnight.  In G10 space, the SEK is the leader, rising 1.0%, cementing its role as the highest beta G10 currency.  But we cannot forget about the yen, which has rallied 0.75% so far this morning, and is now back to its lowest level since the Covid spike, and before that, prices not seen since last August.  A longer-term look at the yen shows that 105 has generally been very strong support with only the extraordinary events of this past March driving it below that level for the first time in four years.  Keep on the lookout for a move toward those Covid inspired lows of 102, although much further seems hard to believe at this point.

On the data front, this week’s highlight is undoubtedly the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, but there is plenty to see.

Today Durable Goods 7.0%
  -ex Transport 3.6%
Tuesday Case Shiller Home Prices 4.10%
  Consumer Confidence 94.4
Wednesday FOMC Rate Decision 0.0% – 0.25%
Thursday GDP Q2 -35.0%
  Personal Consumption -34.5%
  Initial Claims 1.445M
  Continuing Claims 16.3M
Friday Personal Income -0.5%
  Personal Spending 5.4%
  Core PCE 0.2% (1.0% Y/Y)
  Chicago PMI 43.9
  Michigan Sentiment 72.8

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, the GDP data on Thursday will be eye opening, as a print anywhere near forecasts will be the largest quarterly decline in history.  However, that is backward looking.  Of more importance, after the Fed of course, will be the Initial Claims data, which last week stopped trending lower.  Another tick higher there and the V-shaped recovery narrative is likely to be mortally wounded.  As to the Fed, while we will discuss it at length later this week, it seems unlikely they will do or say anything that is going to change the current market sentiment.  And that sentiment continues to be to sell dollars.

Good luck and stay safe

Adf

 

 

 

About to Retrace

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The question investors must face
Is what type of risk to embrace
Are we in a movie
Where things turn out groovy?
Or are stocks about to retrace?

The risk narrative is having a harder time these days as previous rules of engagement seem to have changed. For instance, historically, when risk was ‘off’, stock prices fell, government bond markets rallied, although credit spreads would widen, the dollar and the yen, and to an extent the Swiss franc, would all out perform the rest of the currency world and gold would outperform the rest of the commodity complex. Risk on would see the opposite movement in all these markets. Trading any product successfully mostly required one to understand the narrative and then respond mechanically. Those were the days!

Lately, the risk narrative has been in flux, as a combination of massive central bank interference across most markets and evolving views on the nature of the global geopolitical framework have called into question many of the previous market assumptions.

The adjustments have been greatest within the bond markets as global debt issuance has exploded higher ever since the GFC in 2009, taking an even sharper turn up in the wake of Covid-19. Of course, central banks have been so heavily involved in the market via QE purchases that it is no longer clear what the bond market is describing. Classical economics explained that countries that issued excessive debt ultimately saw their interest rates rise and their currencies devalue amidst an inflationary spike. However, it seems that theory must be discarded because the empirical evidence has shown that massive government debt issuance has resulted in low inflation and relative currency stability for most nations.

The MMT crowd will explain this is the natural response and should be expected because government spending is an unalloyed good that can be expanded indefinitely with nary a consequence. Meanwhile, the Austrians are hyperventilating over the idea that the ongoing expansion of both government spending and debt issuance will result in a debt deflation and anemic growth for as long as that debt remains a weight on the economy.

These days, the distortion in the bond markets has rendered them unrecognizable to investors with any longevity. Central banks are actively buying not only their own government debt, but corporate debt (IG and junk) and municipal debt. Thus, credit spreads have been compressed to record low levels despite the fact that the current economic situation is one of a cataclysmic collapse in activity. Bankruptcies are growing, but debt continues to be sought by investors worldwide. At some point, this final dichotomy will reconcile itself, but for now, central banks rule the roost.

Equity markets have taken a slightly different tack; when things are positive, buy the FANGMAT group of stocks before anything else, although other purchases are allowed. But when it is time to be concerned because the economic story is in question, simply buy FANGMAT and don’t touch any other stocks. If you remove those seven stocks from the indices, the result is that the S&P and NASDAQ have done virtually nothing since the crash in March, and US markets have actually underperformed their European brethren. Of course, those stocks are in the indices, so cannot be ignored, but the question that must be asked is, based on their current valuation of >$6.8 trillion, are they really worth more than the GDP of Germany and the UK combined? While yesterday saw a modest sell-off in the US, which has continued overnight (Hang Seng -2.2%, Shanghai -3.9%, DAX -1.5%, CAC -1.3%) the fact remains stock markets continue to price in a V-shaped recovery and nothing less. And since stock markets tend to drive the overall narrative, if that story changes, beware the movement elsewhere.

It should be noted that yesterday’s Initial Claims data, printing at 1.41M, the first rise in the data point since March, bodes ill for the idea that growth is going to quickly return to pre-Covid levels. And given the uncertainty over how long that recovery will take, stocks may soon be telling us a different story. Just stay alert.

While idioms tell us what’s bold
Is brass, we must all now behold
The barbarous relic
Whose rise seems angelic
Of course, I’m referring to gold!

Turning to precious metals as risk indicators, price action in both gold and silver indicates a great deal of underlying concern in the current market framework. Gold, as you cannot have missed, is fast approaching $1900/oz and its record high level of $1921 is in sight. Silver, while still well below its all-time highs of $49.80/oz, has rallied more than 24% in July, and is gaining more and more adherents. The key unknown is whether this is due to an impending fear of economic calamity, or simply the fact that real interest rates have turned negative throughout the G10 nations and so the cost of owning gold is de minimis.

For the conspiracy theorists, the concern is that ongoing central bank money printing is going to ultimately debase the value of all currencies, so while they may remain relatively stable in the FX markets, their value in purchasing real goods will greatly diminish. In other words, inflation, that the central banks so fervently desire, will reveal itself as a much greater threat than currently imagined by most. Here, too, the geopolitics comes into play, as there is growing concern that the current tit-for-tat squabbles between the US and China will escalate into a more dangerous situation, one where shots are fired in anger, at which times gold is seen as the ultimate safe haven. Personally, I do not believe the US-China situation deteriorates into a hot war as while both presidents need to show they are strong and tough against their rivals, thus the rhetoric and diplomatic squabbles, neither can afford a war.

And finally, to the FX market, where the dollar has clearly lost its luster as the ultimate safe haven, a title it held as recently as two month’s ago. While today’s movement is relatively benign across all currencies, what we have seen this month is a dollar declining against the entire G10 bloc and the bulk of the EMG bloc as well, with several currencies (CLP +7.0%, HUF +5.4%, SEK +5.2%) showing impressive gains. If we think back to the narrative heading into the July 4th holiday, it was focused on the upcoming payroll release and the recent FOMC meeting which had everyone buying into the risk-on narrative. That came from the fact that the payroll data was MUCH better than expected and the Fed made clear they were going to stand ready to continue to add liquidity to markets forever, if they deemed it necessary. Back then, the euro was trading just above 1.12, and its future path seemed uncertain to most. But now, here we are just three weeks later, and the euro has been rising steadily despite the fact that concerns continue to grow over the growth narrative.

Is the euro becoming the new haven currency of last resort? That seems a bit premature, although the EU’s recent agreement to issue mutual debt and inaugurate a more fulsome EU-wide fiscal policy will be an important part of that story in the future. But for now, it seems that there is an almost willful blindness on the part of the investor community as they pay lip service to worries about the recovery’s shape but continue to find succor in (previous) risk-on assets.

While the dollar today is mixed with limited movement in any currency, there is no doubt the FX narrative is evolving toward ‘the dollar has much further to fall between the political chaos and the still positive view of the economy’s future. But remember this, while the dollar has traded to its weakest point in about two years, it is far away from any level that could be considered weak. Current momentum is against the dollar, and if the euro were to trade to resistance between 1.17-1.18, it would not be surprising, but already the pace of its decline has been ebbing, so I do not expect a collapse of any sort, rather a further gradual decline seems the best bet for now.

Good luck, good weekend and stay safe
Adf

 

No Use Delaying

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In Europe, the powers that be
Are feeling quite smug, don’t you see
Not only have they
Held Covid at bay
But also, they borrow for free

Thus, Italy now wants to spend
More money, recession, to end
If Germany’s paying
There’s no use delaying
With Merkel now Conte’s best friend

The euro is continuing its climb this morning, as it mounts a second attack on 1.1600, the highest level it has traded since October 2018. While the overall news cycle has been relatively muted, one thing did jump out today. It should be no surprise, but Italy is the first nation to take advantage of the new EU spending plans as they passed a supplemental €25 billion budget to help support their economy.

Now, it must be remembered that prior to the pandemic, Italy was in pretty bad shape already, at least when looking at both fiscal and economic indicators. For instance, Italy was in recession as of Q4 2019, before Covid, and it was maintaining a debt/GDP ratio of more than 130%. Unemployment was in double digits and there was ongoing political turmoil as the government was fighting for its life vs. the growing popularity of the conservative movement, The League, led by Matteo Salvini. Amongst his supporters were a large number of Euroskeptics, many of whom wanted to follow in the UK’s footsteps and leave the EU. (Quitaly, not Italexit!) However, it seems that the economic devastation of Covid-19 may have altered the equation, and while Salvini’s League still has the most support, at 26%, it has fallen significantly since the outbreak when it was polling more than 10 points higher. Of course, when the government in power can spend money without limits, which is the current situation, that tends to help that government stay in power. And that is the current situation. The EU has suspended its budget restrictions (deficits <3.0%) during the pandemic, and Italy clearly believes, and are probably correct, that the EU is ultimately going to federalize all EU member national debt.

It seems the growing consensus is that federalization of EU fiscal policies will be a true benefit. Of course, it remains to be seen if the 8 EU nations that are not part of the Eurozone will be forced to join, or if the EU will find a way to keep things intact. My money is on the EU forcing the issue and setting a deadline for conversion to the euro as a requisite for remaining in the club. Of course, this is all looking far in the future as not only are these monumental national decisions, but Europe takes a very long time to move forward on pretty much everything.

This story, though, is important as background information to developing sentiment regarding the euro, which is clearly improving. In fairness, there are shorter term positives for the single currency’s value, notably that real interest rates in the rest of the world are falling rapidly, with many others, including the US, now plumbing the depths of negative real rates. Thus, the rates disadvantage the euro suffered is dissipating. At the same time, as we have seen over the past several months, there is clearly very little fear in the market these days, with equity prices relentlessly marching higher on an almost daily basis. Thus, the dollar’s value as a safe haven has greatly diminished as well. And finally, the appearance of what seems to be a second wave of Covid infections in the US, which, to date, has not been duplicated as widely in Europe, has added to confidence in the Eurozone and the euro by extension.

With all this in mind, it should be no surprise that the euro continues to rally, and quite frankly, has room for further gains, at least as long as the economic indicators continue to rebound. And that is the big unknown. If the economic rebound starts to falter, which may well be the case based on some high-frequency data, it is entirely likely that there will be some changes to some of the narrative, most notably the idea that risk will continue to be eagerly absorbed, and the euro may well find itself without all its recent supports.

But for now, the euro remains in the driver’s seat, or perhaps more accurately, the dollar remains in the trunk. Once again, risk is on the move with equity markets having gained modestly in Asia (Hang Seng +0.8%, Sydney +0.3%, Nikkei was closed), while European bourses have also seen modest gains, on the order of 0.5% across the board. US futures are also pointing higher, as there is no reason to be worried for now. Bond markets have behaved as you would expect, with Treasuries and bunds little changed (although Treasuries remain at levels pointing to significant future economic weakness) while bonds from the PIGS are seeing more demand and yields there are falling a few basis points each. Oil is higher on optimism over economic growth, and gold continues to rally, preparing to set new all-time highs as it trades just below $1900/oz. The gold (and silver) story really revolves around the fact that negative real interest rates are becoming more widespread, thus the opportunity cost of holding that barbarous relic have fallen dramatically. Certainly, amongst the market punditry, gold is a very hot topic these days.

As to the rest of the currency space, there are two noteworthy decliners in the G10, NOK (-0.5%) and GBP (-0.25%). The former, despite rising oil prices, fell following the release of much worse than expected employment data. After all, rising unemployment is hardly the sign of an economic rebound. The pound, on the other hand, has suffered just recently after comments by both sides regarding Brexit negotiations, where the essence was that they are no nearer a positive conclusion than they were several months ago. Brexit has been a background issue for quite a few months, as most market players clearly assume a deal will be done, and that is a fair assumption. But that only means that there is the potential for a significant repricing lower in the pound if the situation falls apart there. Otherwise, the G10 is broadly, but modestly firmer.

In the emerging markets, the picture is a bit more mixed with the CE4 tracking the euro higher, but most other currencies ceding earlier session gains. IDR is the one exception, having rallied 0.5% for a second day as equity inflows helped to support the rupiah. On the downside, KRW (-0.2%) suffered after GDP data was released at a worse than expected -3.4%, confirming Korea is in a recession. Meanwhile, the weakest performer has been ZAR (-0.6%) as traders anticipate a rate cut by the SARB later today.

Data in the US this morning includes the ever-important Initial Claims (exp 1.3M) and Continuing Claims (17.1M), as well as Leading Indicators (2.1%). But all eyes will be on the Claims data as the consensus view is weakness there implies the rebound is over and the economic situation may slide back again. Counterintuitively, that could well help the dollar as it spreads fear that the V-shaped recovery is out of the question. However, assuming the estimates are close, I would look for the current trends to continue, so modestly higher equities and a modestly weaker dollar.

Good luck and stay safe
Adf

Stocks Dare Not Wane

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Can someone, to me, please explain
The reason that stocks dare not wane?
If this is to be
Then how come we see
Both silver and gold, new heights gain?

It seems like the narrative is becoming more difficult to explain these days. On the one hand, risk appetite appears to be gaining as evidenced by the ongoing rally in equity markets, the continued rebound in oil prices and the dollar’s steady decline. The rationale continues to be one where hope springs eternal for the elusive Covid vaccine and that fiscal stimulus will continue to be pumped into the global economy until said vaccine arrives driving a V-shaped recovery. Meanwhile, paying for that fiscal stimulus will be global central banks, who are printing money as quickly as possible in order to mop up all the newly issued bonds. (I would wager that the ECB will purchase at least 50% of the new EU bonds when they are finally issued.)

The potential flaw in this theory is the price behavior of haven assets, notably gold, silver and Treasuries, all of which have continued to rally right alongside risk assets. Now, it is certainly possible that the continuous flood of new money into the global economy has simply resulted in all assets rising in price, including the haven assets, but it would be a mistake to ignore the signals those haven assets are flashing. For instance, 10-year Treasury yields have fallen back below 0.60% today for the first time since establishing their historic low at 0.569% in mid-April. Historically, the message of low 10-year yields has been slow growth ahead. It seems to me that doesn’t jive very well with the V-shaped recovery story that appears to be driving equity prices. Of course, the issue here could easily be that the Fed’s purchases are simply distorting the market thus removing any signaling power from 10-year yields, but they have assured us repeatedly that is not the case. Rather, their purchases are designed to insure the opposite, that the market functions normally.

Turning to precious metals, both gold and silver have been on a tear of late, with silver really turning it on in July, rising 21%, while gold has seen steady buying and is higher by 4.3% so far this month. Granted, this could simply be part of the dollar weakness effect, where a declining dollar lifts the value of all commodities. But you cannot rule out the idea that this price movement is a signal of growing concerns over the value of all fiat currencies as central banks around the world work overtime to provide liquidity to markets.

From the perspective of the narrative, it is important to accept that this time it’s different, and that these haven asset signals are merely noise in the new world order. And maybe they are. Maybe the fact that central banks around the world have added nearly $20 trillion of liquidity to global markets without corresponding economic growth is of no real concern and will not result in consequences like rising inflation or growth in inequality. Unfortunately, the one thing that we have learned during this crisis is that central banks have a single playbook regardless of the situation…print more money. Like a man with a hammer, to whom every problem looks like a nail, central bankers see a problem and respond in one way only… turn on the presses. I certainly hope the Fed et al, know what they are doing, but the evidence is that their models are no longer reflective of reality, and that is the big problem. Any model is only as good as its data, but good data doesn’t make a bad model good, in fact it is more likely to give misinformation instead.

So, let us now turn to the market’s activities this morning to see if there is anything new under the sun. While equity markets around the world are under pressure, the losses are relatively small and arguably just a reflex response to what has been a strong run for the past several sessions. Government bonds continue to rally ever so slowly in both the US and Europe, but the truly interesting things are happening in the FX world.

To start, the euro has well and truly broken out of its range, easily taking out resistance at 1.1495 during its 0.7% climb yesterday. This morning, it has added to those gains, up another 0.4% and trading at levels last seen in October 2018. Momentum is on its side and as I mentioned yesterday, I see no real resistance until at least 1.17, meaning another 1.0%-2.0% is quite within reason. At this stage, there doesn’t need to be a narrative, just the acceptance that the current trend is strong. But yesterday saw the entire G10 space rally, led by AUD (+1.6%) and NOK (+1.3%) with the former benefitting from a serious short squeeze while the latter had oil to thank for its gains. But even the yen (+0.45% yesterday) showed real strength, despite no concern about risk.

But the real story was in the EMG space, where virtually the entire bloc was firmer, although none so impressively as BRL, which rocketed 3.1% during the day. It seems that a combination of general positivity from the EU’s announced deal and the specifics of the introduction of the long-awaited new tax reform by the Bolsonaro administration were enough to get the juices flowing. Technically, it appears that barring any significant negative news, this could continue until USDBRL tests 5.00, or even the 4.85 lows seen in mid-June.

But the entire EMG bloc was on fire, with the CE4 far outperforming the euro (CZK +1.95%, HUF +1.90%, PLN +1.6%) but also strength elsewhere in LATAM (CLP +1.75%, COP +0.75%). In fact, APAC currencies were the laggards, although most of them did rise modestly. This morning’s price action has been a bit more muted, although we have seen IDR (+0.6%) halt what has been an impressive weakening trend. It seems that a local company is planning to move into Covid vaccine trials next month which has encouraged optimists to believe the second wave of infections there may be addressed soon.

Arguably, the one truly interesting thing today is the weakness in CNY (-0.2%) which seems to be a response to the story that the US has closed the Chinese consulate in Houston. The Chinese are now threatening to close the US consulate in Wuhan (who would want to work in that office anyway?) with the real concern that the ongoing cold war between the two nations shows no signs of abating. In fact, if you want a rationale for owning haven assets, this situation offers plenty of scope.

Turning to the data today, we get our first from the US in the form of Existing Home Sales (exp 4.75M) which would represent a 21% gain from last month. Of course, the level remains far below the pre-Covid situation where 5.5M was the norm for more than 5 years. The Fed remains in its quiet period as the market will eventually turn their attention to next Wednesday’s meeting, but for now, the market doesn’t need any further impetus. The story is the dollar is falling and risk is to be acquired. While the latter idea might be a little bit of a concern, the former, a weaker dollar, seems a fait accompli for now.

Good luck and stay safe
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A Blank Check

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While much of the nation’s a wreck
The good news is there’s still Big Tech
Whose prices ne’er fall
Thus, keeping in thrall
Investors who wrote a blank check

One cannot but be impressed with the performance of the tech sector in US equity markets.  It seems that no matter what else happens anywhere in the world, a small group of companies has unearthed the secret to infinite value, or at least a never-ending rally in their share prices. Yesterday’s price action was instructive in that a group of just seven companies, all tech titans, added nearly $300 billion in value, which was greater than the entire NASDAQ’s 2.5% gain. While we all are happy to see equity markets continue to rally, it certainly is beginning to appear as though some of these valuations are unsustainable, especially if the V-shaped recovery doesn’t materialize. One other thing to consider about the values of these companies is that if there is a change in the White House, it is almost certain to bring with it significantly higher corporate taxes (39.6% anyone?), which will almost certainly result in a repricing of the future stream of earnings available to shareholders. But for now, clearly nothing matters but the fact that these companies are market darlings and are set to continue to rally…until they stop.

In Europe, those twenty plus nations
(Ahead of their summer vacations)
Have finally agreed
To help those in need
With billions in brand new donations

However, arguably the biggest story in the markets today is that the EU finally did agree to a spending plan to help those nations most severely impacted by the Covid recession. It was inevitable that this would be the result as the political imperative was too great for four smaller nations to prevent its completion. To hear the frugal four, though, is quite amusing. They seem to believe that their “principled” stand, where they each get a larger rebate from the general pool of funds (each is a net payer into the EU budget), and their demands that this is a one-time solution to an extraordinary event means that in the future, debt mutualization will not expand. If there is one thing that we know about government programs, it is that they always expand, and they never die. There is no such thing as a one-time program. Debt mutualization is now the standard in the EU, and one should expect nothing less. Redistribution from the North to the South of the continent is now a permanent feature.

The market reaction to this news is mostly what one would have expected. European equity markets have rallied, with those in Italy (+2.2%) and Spain (+1.9%) leading the way higher, although the strength is broad-based. As well, European government bond markets are also performing appropriately, with the havens seeing a modest rise in yields while the risk bonds, like Italian and Greek debt, falling as investors have greater assurances that they will now be repaid. After all, with debt mutualization, Greek and German debt are basically the same!

Finally, looking at the FX markets, we find the euro slightly softer on the session, having briefly traded higher, but now falling victim to what appears to be a buy the rumor, sell the news type event. But the euro has been a stellar performer for the past two months, rising 4.5% in that period as the market narrative has turned back to some previously discredited themes. Notably, we continue to hear a great deal about the dollar’s twin deficit issue and how that will undermine the greenback. In addition, given the ongoing risk rally, the idea of needing a safe haven currency, has simply faded from existence. In fact, this morning there is now talk that the euro, with its new solidarity, is really a haven asset. PPP models continue to point to the euro being undervalued at current levels with forecasts creeping ever higher. In fact, one large bank is out calling for 1.30 in the euro by the end of next year.

Of course, there is a great irony in the discussion of a stronger euro, the fact it is the absolute last thing Madame Lagarde and her ECB compatriots want (or need). After all, one of the key reasons for them to cut interest rates below zero was to undermine the euro in order to both import inflation and help European exporters become more price competitive. You can be sure that if the euro does start to break higher, we will hear a great deal more about the inappropriate price action of a rising euro. For now, all eyes are on 1.1495, which was the spike high seen in March, and which is currently serving as a resistance point for the technicians. A break there is likely to see a test of the 1.17-1.18 level before the end of the summer.

As to the dollar overall, it continues its recent weakening trend, with only a handful of currencies modestly softer and some decent moves the other way. For instance, Aussie is the top pick in the G10 this morning, rising 0.85%, as a combination of risk appetite and a short squeeze is doing the job nicely. But we are also seeing strength in NOK (+0.6%) and CAD (+0.5%), both of which are benefitting from oil’s rally today (WTI +2.8%). In the EMG space, it should be no surprise that RUB and ZAR (both +0.8%) are the leaders as the oil and commodity price rallies are clear supports. In fact, the bulk of this bloc is firmer this morning with only a handful of currencies (RON, CNY, SGD) in the red, and there just by a few basis points. Overall, it is fair to say the dollar is on its back foot again today.

With no data due today, and none of note released overnight, the FX market seems set to take its cues from the equity space and the broad risk themes. And it is pretty clear that the broad risk theme today is…buy more risk!

Herbert Stein, a very well-respected economist in the 1960’s was quoted as saying, “that which cannot continue, will not continue.” His point was that while exuberance may manifest itself periodically, it always ends when reality intrudes. Right now, it feels like risk assets, especially that formidable group of tech names, is completely disconnected with the economic reality and best-case prospects. The implication is this cannot go on. But that doesn’t mean it won’t go further before it ends. The narrative is risk assets are the thing to own, and as long as that is the case, the dollar is likely to remain under pressure.

Good luck and stay safe
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They’ll See the Light

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In China, a new rule applies
Which helped stocks close on session highs
The news was released
Insurers increased
The size of their equity buys

Meanwhile, Brussels has been the sight
Of quite a large policy fight
Four nations refuse
Their cash to misuse
But in the end, they’ll see the light

Once upon a time, government announcements were focused on things like international relations, broad economic policies and the occasional self-kudos to try to burnish their reputation with the electorate, or at least with the population.  But that ideal has essentially disappeared from today’s world.  Instead, as a result of the ongoing financialization of economies worldwide, there are only two types of government announcements these days; those designed to explain why the current government is the best possible choice, and those designed to prop up the nation’s stock market.  Policy comments are too hard for most people to understand, or at least to understand their potential ramifications, so they are no longer seen as useful.  But, do you know what is seen as useful?  Explaining that institutions should buy more stocks because a higher stock market is good for everyone!

Once again, China leads the way in this vein, with Friday night’s announcement that henceforth, Insurers should can allocate as much as 45% of their assets to equities, up from the previous cap of 30%.  Some quick math shows that this new regulation has just released an additional $325 billion of new buying power into the Chinese stock market, or roughly 4% of the total market capitalization in the country.  It cannot be a surprise that the Shanghai Exchange rallied 3.1% last night, which was, of course, exactly the idea behind the announcement.  In fact, lately, the Chinese have been really working to manipulate the stock market there, apparently seeking a steady move higher, probably something like 1% a day, but have been having trouble reining in the exuberance of the large speculative community there.  So, all of their little nudges higher result in 3%-5% gains, which they feel could be getting out of hand, and so they need to squash them occasionally.  But for now, they are back on the rally bandwagon, so look for some steady support this week.

Interestingly, however, this was clearly not seen as a global risk-on signal as equity activity elsewhere has been far more muted.  The rest of Asia was basically flat (Nikkei +0.1%, Hang Seng -0.1%) and Europe has seen a mixed session as well, with small gains by the DAX (+0.3%) and losses by the CAC (-0.3%).  In other words, investors realize this is simply Chinese activity.  PS, US futures are basically unchanged on the day as well.

At the same time, there is a critical story building out of Europe, the outcome of the EU Summit. This began with high hopes on Friday as most people expected the Frugal Four to quickly cave into the pressure to give more money away to the PIGS.  However, after three full days of talks, there is still no agreement.  Remember, their concern is that the EU plan to give away €500 billion in grants to countries most in need (read Italy, Spain and Greece), is simply delaying the inevitable as they will almost certainly waste these funds, just like they have each wasted funds for decades.  And the frugal four nations were not interested in throwing their money away.  But in the end, it was always clear that with support from Germany and France, a deal would get done in some form.  The latest is that “only” €390 billion will be given as grants, so a 22% reduction, but still a lot of free cash.

While no one has yet signed on the dotted line, you can be sure that by the end of the day, they will have announced a successful conclusion to the process.  The funny thing is that regardless of the outcome of the Summit, it seems to me that the entire package, listed at €750 billion, is actually pretty small.  After all, the CARES act here had a price tag of $3.2 trillion, four times as large, and the EU economy is going to suffer just as much as the US.  But that is not the way the market is looking at things.  Rather, they have collectively decided that this package is a huge euro positive and have been pushing the single currency higher steadily for pretty much the entire month of July (+2.5%), with it now sitting just pips below the spike high seen in March, and back to levels last seen, really, in January 2019.  How much further can it rise?  Personally, I am skeptical that it has that much more room to run, but I know the technicians are really getting excited about a big breakout here.

As to the rest of the FX market, activity has been fairly muted with the dollar slightly softer against most G10 and EMG counterparts.  On the G10 side, NOK and SEK lead the way higher, both up by 0.45%, as in a broad move, these higher beta currencies tend to have the best performance.  JPY is a touch softer on the day, and a number of currencies, CAD, NZD, CHF, are all within just basis points of Friday’s close.

We are seeing similar price action in the emerging markets, with one notable loser, IDR (-0.5%) as traders there continue to price in further policy ease by the central bank after last week’s 25bp rate cut. On the plus side, the CE4 are leading the way higher, with gains between 0.3% and 0.6%, simply tracking the euro with a bit more beta.  But really, there is not too much of note to discuss here.

On the data front, it is an extremely quiet week upcoming as follows:

Wednesday Existing Home Sales 4.80M
Thursday Initial Claims 1.293M
  Continuing Claims 16.9M
  Leading Indicators 2.1%
Friday PMI Manufacturing 52.0
  PMI Services 51.0
  New Home Sales 700K

Source: Bloomberg

In addition, there are no Fed speakers on the docket as it seems everybody has gone on holiday.  So, once again, Initial Claims seems to be the key data point this week, helping us to determine if things are actually getting better, or we have seen a temporary peak in activity.  With the ongoing spread of what appears to be a second wave of Covid, there is every chance that we start to see the rebound in data seen for the past two months start to fade.  If that is the case, it strikes me that we will see a bit more risk-off activity and the dollar benefit.  But that is a future situation.  Today, the dollar remains under modest pressure as traders respond to the perceived benefits of striking a deal at the EU.

Good luck and stay safe

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Second Wave

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In Q2 we learned to behave
Like primitives stuck in a cave
In order to stem
The virus mayhem
And millions of lives, try to save

But Q3 has shown that we crave
More contact than lockdown, us, gave
Thus, it’s not surprising
Infections are rising
And now we’ve achieved second wave

If I were to describe market behavior of late, the word I would use is tentative. Investors and traders are caught between wanting to believe that the nonstop stimulus efforts on both fiscal, and especially, monetary fronts will be sufficient to help the economy through the current economic crisis (conveniently ignoring the extraordinary build up in debt), and concerns that there is too much permanent damage to too many businesses to allow for a swift recovery to a pre-Covid level of activity. Adding to the fear side of the equation is the resurgence in the number of infections worldwide, especially in places that had seemed to eradicate the virus. News from Hong Kong, Australia, China and India shows that the virus is making a resurgence, with several places recording more cases now than when things started five to six months ago. And of course, we have seen the same pattern in states that were first to reopen here at home.

Meanwhile, the medical community continues its extraordinary efforts to find a vaccine, with several promising candidates making their way through trials. Perhaps the best medical news is that it seems doctors on the front line have learned how to treat the disease more effectively, which has reduced the number of critical cases and helped drive down the fatality rate. Alas, an effective vaccine remains elusive. Ironically, the vaccine’s importance in many ways is symbolic. The idea that there is a way to avoid catching the bug is certainly appealing, but if the flu vaccine is any harbinger of the outcome, a minority of people will actually get vaccinated. So, the vaccine story is more about a chance for confidence to be restored than about people’s health. Perhaps this sums up the state of human affairs these days better than anything else.

And yet, while no politician anywhere will allow confirmation, it certainly appears that we are seeing a second wave of infections spread worldwide. From the market’s perspective, this has been a key concern for the past several months as a second wave of economy-wide shutdowns would end all hopes of that elusive V-shaped recovery. And the only way to justify the current levels of asset values is by assuming this crisis will pass quickly and things will return to a more normal framework. Hence the trader’s dilemma. Is the worst behind us? Or is a second wave going to expand and delay the recovery further? Perhaps the most telling feature of this market is the changed relationship between the S&P 500 and the VIX index. Prior to the Covid-19 outbreak, an equity rally of the type seen since late March would have seen the VIX index collapse toward 15, the level at which it traded for virtually all of 2019. But this time, 30 has become the new normal for the VIX, a strong indication that investors are paying for protection, despite the cost, as there remains an underlying fear of another sharp decline beyond the horizon. Hence, my description of things as tentative.

Looking at markets this morning, tentative is an excellent descriptor. In the equity space, Asian markets were mixed, with the Nikkei (-0.3%) on the weak side with the Hang Seng (+0.5%) was the strong side. But given the type of movement we have seen lately, neither really displayed anything new at the end of the week. European markets are also mixed with the DAX (+0.5%) the best performer while Spain’s IBEX (-0.5%) is the worst. Again, a mix of performances with no evident trend. US futures are currently pointing higher although only the NASDAQ (+1.0%) is showing any real strength.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields have slipped again, with the 10-year down to 0.60%, its lowest level since mid-April and just 4bps from its historic low. That is hardly a sign of economic confidence. In Europe, the picture is mixed but yields are essentially within 1bp of where they closed yesterday as traders are unwilling to take a view.

Finally, the dollar, too, is having a mixed session, although if I had to characterize it, I would say it is slightly softer overall. The euro is higher by 0.3% this morning as there is hope that the EU Summit, which began a few hours ago, will come to an agreement on their mooted €750 billion pandemic plan that includes joint borrowing. Of course, the frugal four still need to be bought off in some manner but given the political determination to be seen to be doing something, I would look for a watered-down version of the bill to be agreed. However, the best performer today is CHF (+0.5%) in what appears to be some profit taking on EURCHF positions after the cross’s strong rally this week.

In the emerging markets, IDR is the big underperformer today, falling 0.5% overnight as traders position for future rate cuts by the central bank. While they cut 25bps yesterday, they also came across as more dovish than expected implying they are not yet done with the rate hatchet. On the plus side, ZAR (+0.6%) is top of the charts as investors have been flocking to the front end of their yield curve after a much lower than expected inflation print. The view is that the SARB has further to cut which will drive front end yields down, hence the buying. (The dichotomy between the two currencies is fascinating as both are moving on rate cut assumptions, but in opposite directions. Hey, nobody ever said FX was rational!) But we are seeing more gainers than losers as the CE4 track the euro higher and several APAC currencies also moved modestly higher overnight. Remember, one of the emerging narratives has been the dollar’s imminent decline on the back of the twin deficits and lost prestige in the world community. So, every time we see a day where the dollar declines, you can be sure you will see stories on that topic. And while the twin deficit story is certainly valid from a theoretical basis, it has never been a good short-term indicator of movement in the currency markets.

On the data front, yesterday saw US Retail Sales print at a better than expected 7.5%, but Initial Claims fall less than expected, with still 1.3 million first time claims. As I have mentioned, that number continues to be the timeliest indicator of what is happening, and it is certainly not declining very rapidly anymore. Today brings Housing Starts (exp 1189K) and Building Permits (1293K) at 8:30 and then Michigan Sentiment (79.0) at 10:00. Neither of these seem likely to have a major market impact. Rather, as earnings season progresses, I expect the ongoing reports there to drive equity markets and overall risk appetite. For now, nobody is very hungry for risk, but a few good numbers could certainly change that view, pushing stocks higher and the dollar lower.

Good luck, good weekend and stay safe
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Quite Dramatic

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The Chinese report ‘bout Q2
Showed growth has rebounded, it’s true
But things there remain
Subject to more pain
Til elsewhere bids Covid adieu

The market’s response was emphatic
With Shanghai’s decline quite dramatic
Thus, risk appetite
Today is quite slight
Which means bears are now just ecstatic

It is no surprise that the Chinese reported a rebound to positive GDP growth in Q2 as, after all, the nation was the epicenter of Covid-19 and they, both shut down and reopened their economy first. The numbers, however, were mixed at best, with the GDP number rebounding a more than expected 3.2% Y/Y, but their Retail Sales data failing to keep up, printing at -1.8% Y/Y, rather than the expected 0.5% gain. The lesson to be learned here is that while Chinese industry seems to be heading back to a pre-Covid pace, domestic consumption is not keeping up. This is a problem for China for two reasons; first, they have made an enormous effort to adjust the mix of their economy from entirely export oriented to a much greater proportion of consumption led growth. Thus, weak Retail Sales implies that those efforts are now likely to restrict the nation’s growth going forward. Secondly, the fact that the rest of the world is months behind China in this cycle, with many emerging markets still in the closing process, not nearly ready to reopen, implies that while industry in China may have retooled, their export markets are a long way from robust.

The other interesting thing that came out of China last night, that had a more direct impact on markets there, was yet another round of stories published about the evils of speculation and how Chinese financial institutions would be selling more stocks. You may recall last week, when the Chinese government had an article published singing the praises of a strong stock market, encouraging retail investors to drive a more than 6.0% gain in the Shanghai Composite. Just a few days later, they reversed course, decrying the evils of speculation with a corresponding sharp decline. Well, it seems that speculators are still evil, as last night’s message was unequivocally negative pushing Shanghai lower by 4.5% and finally removing all those initial speculative gains. It seems the PBOC and the government are both concerned about inflating bubbles as they well remember the pain of 2015, when they tried to deflate their last one.

But this activity set the tone for all Asian markets, with red numbers everywhere, albeit not quite to the extent seen on the mainland. For instance, the Nikkei slipped 0.75% and the Hang Seng, fell 2.0%.

Europe has its own set of issues this morning, although clearly the weakness in Asia has not helped their situation. Equity markets throughout the Continent are lower with the DAX (-0.5%) and CAC (-0.7%) representative of the losses everywhere. While traders there await the ECB meeting outcome, the focus seems to be on the UK announcement that they will be increasing their debt issuance by £110 billion in Q3 to help fund all the fiscal stimulus. This will take the debt/GDP ratio above 100%, ending any chance of retaining fiscal prudence.

It’s remarkable how things can change in a short period of time. During the Eurozone debt crisis, less than 10 years ago, when Greece was on the cusp of leaving the euro, they were constantly lambasted for having a debt/GDP ratio of 150% or more while Italy, who was puttering along at 125% was also regularly excoriated by the EU and the IMF. But these days, those entities are singing a different tune, where suddenly, government borrowing is seen as quite appropriate, regardless of the underlying fiscal concerns, with the supranational bodies calling for additional fiscal stimulus and the borrowing that goes along with it. At any rate, there is certainly no sign that the current mantra of issuing debt and spending massive amounts of money to support the economy is about to change. Fiscal prudence is now completely passé.

With that as a backdrop, it should be no surprise that risk is being pared back across all markets. Having already discussed equities, we can look at bond markets and see yields virtually everywhere lower today as investors seek out haven assets. Interestingly, despite the new issuance announced in the UK, Gilts lead the way with a 2.5bp decline, while Treasuries and Bunds have both seen yields decline a more modest 1bp. Oil prices have fallen again, which is weighing on both NOK (-0.65%) and RUB (-0.4%) the two currencies most closely linked to its price. But of course, lower oil prices are indicative of weaker overall sentiment.

As such, it is also no surprise that every one of the currencies in the G10 and major emerging markets is weaker vs. the dollar this morning. While the trendy view remains that the dollar is going to continue to decline, and that has been expressed with near record short dollar positions in futures markets, the greenback is not playing along today.

At this point, I think it is important to remind everyone that a key part of the weak dollar thesis is the ongoing expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet adding more liquidity to the system and thus easing dollar policy further. But for the past 5 weeks, the Fed’s balance sheet has actually shrunk by $250 billion, a not inconsiderable 3.5%, as repo transactions have matured and not been replaced. It appears that for now, the market is flush with cash. So, given the combination of major short dollar positions extant and short term fundamental monetary details pointing to dollar strength, do not be surprised if we see a short squeeze in the buck over the next week or two.

This morning brings the bulk of the week’s data, certainly its most important readings, and it all comes at 8:30. Retail Sales (exp 5.0%, 5.0% ex autos), Philly Fed (20.0), Initial Claims (1.25M) and Continuing Claims (17.5M) will hopefully give us a clearer picture of how the US economy is progressing. One of the problems with this data is that it is mostly backward looking (Philly Fed excepted) and so probably does not capture the apparent second wave of infections seen in Florida, Texas and California, three of the most populous states. So, even if we do see somewhat better than expected data, it could easily slip back next week/month. In fact, this is why the Claims data is so important, it is the timeliest of all the major economic releases, and given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the current economic situation, it is likely the most helpful. So, while the trend in Initial Claims has been lower, it remains at extremely problematic levels and is indicative of many more businesses retrenching and letting staff go. It has certainly been my go-to data point for the pulse of the economy.

Recent data points have been better than forecast, but nobody doubts that things are still in dire shape. Unfortunately, it appears we are still a long way from recouping all the lost economic activity we have suffered over the past months. But FX remains a relative game, and arguably, so is everyone else.

Good luck and stay safe
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Buying is Brisk

Posted on by

Apparently, there is no fear
As it’s become patently clear
The shape we will see
Of growth is a ‘V’
As long as that vaccine is near

So, don’t talk to me about risk
Who cares ‘bout the federal fisc?
A hot war in Asia?
That’s bearish fantasia
Instead, retail buying is brisk!

If you are not adding to your risk positions this morning, you are clearly not paying attention. Virtually unbridled bullishness has gripped markets on word that a vaccine has had very promising results and is soon heading into Phase 3 trials. This news is more than sufficient to overwhelm pedantic issues like increasing tensions between the US and China playing out in Hong Kong; US bank results showing a massive increase in loan-loss reserves as expectations of defaults climb; or the complete lack of activity by the Senate regarding the potential extension of extraordinary unemployment benefits that are due to lapse on July 31.

Historically, issues like the US-China tension, or arguably more importantly, the signal from banks about the pending collapse of loan repayments, would have played out with more investor trepidation. While risk asset prices might not have collapsed, they certainly would not have shown the strength they have of late. But then, the central bank community has done their very best to rewrite history, or perhaps demonstrate that they have learned from history, by expanding their balance sheets dramatically and injecting trillions of dollars’ worth of liquidity into the global economy. It should be no surprise that those trillions have made their way into markets, rather than the real economy, given the trend of financialization that has played out over the past two decades.

Curmudgeons would argue that no central bank is supposed to care about markets per se, rather their role is to foster price stability primarily, with a number, including the Fed, having been tasked with insuring full employment. But nowhere is it written that supporting equity markets is part of the mandate. And yet, that is essentially where the situation now stands. Equity market displacements are met with increased central bank activity. In fact, this is so ingrained in investor attitudes that we now have equity rallies on bad news under the assumption that the relevant central bank will be forced to add more liquidity by buying more risk assets.

There is, however, one market that seems to be paying attention to the historic storyline; government bonds. Treasury yields continue to grind lower (10-year at 0.61%) as a certain class of investors seem to see a less rosy future. Of course, one could make the argument that bonds are rallying because the Fed is buying them, but the problem with that story right now is the Fed’s balance sheet has actually been slowly shrinking over the past several weeks, by something on the order of $300 billion. Instead, this appears to be a genuine concern over future risks, something that is completely absent from the equity space.

So, which market is correct? Are the equity bulls prescient, implying there is a V-shaped recovery in our future? Or are the fixed income buyers seeing more clearly, recognizing that the economy is rebounding, but the pace will be much slower than desired? If we look to an outside agency to help us, the FX market, for example, recent price action is aligned with adding to risk appetites. But then, the ultimate haven asset, gold, is also continuing to rally. Being a curmudgeon myself, I tend toward the view that the next several years are going to be much tougher than currently expected by the risk bulls. But for now, they remain in control!

With this in mind, it should be no surprise that the dollar is under pressure this morning. In the G10 space, NOK is the leader, up 1.0%, as a combination of broad-based dollar weakness and higher oil (WTI +1.4%) has seen demand increase. But all the high beta currencies (SEK, AUD, NZD) are higher as well, on the order of 0.6%. Even the yen is stronger into this mix, rising 0.3%, as distaste for the dollar spreads.

At this point, I cannot ignore the euro. While today’s movement is a modest 0.3% gain, it has been on a mission of late, rising 1.7% since Friday. There are many subplots here, with discussions about the relative stance of the ECB vs. the Fed, short-term risk-on knee-jerk reactions to buy euros, and perhaps most importantly, the questions over the long-term viability of the US government running enormous twin deficits (budget and current account) and how those are going to get financed. For now, the Fed has been the financier for the government, but debt monetization has never been the path to a stronger currency, rather just the opposite. What is interesting is that this longer-term discussion is being dusted off by analysts once again, with many newly revamped calls for the dollar to continue its decline for the rest of the year.

One thing that would definitely support this thesis would be if the EU actually moved forward on mutualization of debt. You will recall several weeks ago that Merkel and Macron announced they both agreed on a €500 billion EU support program that was to be funded by 30-year and 40-year EU bond issuance, jointly payable by the entire bloc. This has been held up by a minority of countries, the so-called frugal four, as they are uninterested in paying for Southern Europe’s profligate history. But word this morning from France indicated a belief that a deal was to be completed at this week’s EU Summit. If this is the case, that is an unambiguous euro positive. But if we know anything about the EU, it is that nothing proceeds smoothly, even when everyone there agrees. We shall see, but the story has definitely helped the single currency.

In the EMG bloc, ZAR is the runaway leader, rising 1.3% on the general story as well as higher gold and commodity prices. What is interesting is that this continues despite news that Eskom, the national utility, is going to reduce power production, certainly not a sign of economic strength. But we are seeing gains almost universally in this bloc as HUF (+0.9%), MXN (+0.8%) and the rest of the CE4 all perform quite well. In other words, there is no need for dollars to assuage fears. The one exception here is IDR (-1.0%), which suffered overnight as traders anticipate the central bank to cut rates more than 25bps tonight, while the pace of infection growth there increases, leading many to believe there will be another economic shutdown.

The strong risk positive attitude has also manifested itself across equity markets (Nikkei +1.6%, DAX +1.6%, CAC +1.9%), with US futures pointing sharply higher as well (Dow and S&P e-minis both higher by 1.3%). And finally, while the trend in Treasury yields is certainly lower, today has seen a modest back up across all bond markets (Bunds +1bp, Gilts +2.5bps, Treasuries +2bps).

Turning to the morning’s session, we have only modest data releases; Empire Manufacturing (exp 10.0), IP (4.3%) and Capacity Utilization (67.8%). Then at 2:00 comes the Fed’s Beige Book, which should be an interesting look at the progress of the reopening of the economy. There is only one Fed Speaker, Philly Fed President Harker, but what has been interesting lately is the dissent in views between various FOMC members regarding the pace of the recovery. And that is why the data is still important.

But for now, the risk bulls are running the show, so do not be surprised if the dollar weakness trend continues.

Good luck and stay safe
Adf