Tag Archives: #riskon

Both Need Downgrading

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Excitement in markets is fading
With GameStop and silver both trading
Much lower today
As sellers convey
The message that both need downgrading

Well, it appears that the GameStop bubble is deflating rapidly this morning, which is only to be expected.  Short interest in the stock has fallen from 140% of market cap to just 39% as of yesterday’s close.  This means that there is precious little reason for it to rally again, as, if you recall, the company’s business model remains a bad fit for the times.  The top tick, last Thursday, was $483 per share.  In the pre-market this morning it is trading at $172, and I anticipate that before the end of the month, it will be trading back to its pre-hype $17-$18 level.  But it was fun while it lasted!

Meanwhile silver, yesterday’s story, has also fallen sharply, -4.7% as I type, as the mania there seems to have been more readily absorbed by a much larger market.  The conspiracy theory that the central banks and JP Morgan have been manipulating the price lower for the past several decades has always been hard to understand but was certainly more widespread than I expected.  The major difference between silver and GME though, is that silver has a real raison d’etre as an industrial metal, as well as a traditional store of wealth and monetary metal.  Last year silver’s price rose 46.5%, leading all precious metals higher.  And, in the event that inflation does begin to show itself again, something I believe is coming soon to a screen near you, there is a strong case to be made for it to rally further.  This is especially so given the ongoing debasement of all fiat currencies by central banks around the world as they print more and more each day.

Down Under the RBA stunned
The market and every hedge fund
Increasing QE
As they want to see
The Aussie increasingly shunned

While other major central banks stood pat in their recent policy meetings, the RBA last night surprised one and all by increasing the amount of QE by A$100 billion, at A$5 billion / month, meaning they will continue the program well into 2022.  As well, they explained that they would not consider raising rates until 2024 at the earliest as they work to push unemployment lower.  This means, the overnight rate will remain at 0.1% and YCC for the 3-year bond will also remain at that level.  Interestingly, the market had tapering on its mind, as ahead of the meeting AUD had rallied nearly 0.6%, with analyst discussions of tapering rampant.  As such, it is no surprise that the currency gave up those gains immediately upon the release of the statement, and has now fallen 0.25% on the day, the worst laggard in the G10.

With the FOMC meeting behind us, Fed speakers are going to be inundating us with their views for the next month, so be prepared for a lot more discussion on this topic.  Remember, before the quiet period ahead of the January meeting, four regional presidents were talking taper, with two seeing the possibility of that occurring late in 2021.  Chairman Powell, however, tried to squelch that theory in the statement and press conference.   Yesterday, uber-dove Neel Kashkari expressed his view that it is “..key for Fed to keep foot on monetary policy gas.”  Meanwhile, Raphael Bostic and Eric Rosengren both harped on the need for additional fiscal stimulus to revive the economy, with Bostic once again explaining that tapering when economic growth picks up will be appropriate, although giving no timeline.  (He was one of the four discussing a taper ahead of the meeting.)  We have seven more speakers this week, some of them multiple times, so there will certainly be headline risk as this debate plays out in public.

But for now, markets are sanguine about the possibility of central bank tightening in any way, shape or form, as once again, risk is being embraced across the board.  Starting in Asia, we saw green results everywhere (Nikkei +1.0%, Hang Seng +1.2%, Shanghai +0.8%), with the same being true in Europe (DAX +1.1%, CAC +1.6%, FTSE 100 +0.5%).  US futures are pointing in the same direction with gains on the order of 0.75% at 7:00am.

Bond markets are also on board the risk train, with yields rising in Treasuries (+2.9 bps) and throughout Europe (Bunds +2.7bps, OATs +2.2bps, Gilts +3.1bps).  Part of this positivity seems to be coming from the release of Eurozone Q4 GDP data, which was not quite as bad, at -0.7% Q/Q (-5.1% Y/Y) as forecast.  That outcome, though, was reasonably well known ahead of time as both Germany and Spain printed Q4 GDP at +0.1% in a surprise last week.  Unfortunately, the ongoing lockdowns throughout Europe, which have been extended into March in some cases, point to another quarter of economic contraction in Q1, thus resulting in a second recession in short order on the continent.  With that in mind, while we have not heard much from ECB speakers lately, it is certainly clear that there is no taper talk in Frankfurt at this time.

Which takes us to the currency markets.  The G10 bloc is split with EUR (-0.25%) matching AUD’s futility, while the rest of the European currencies are all modestly lower.  Commodity currencies, however, are holding their own led by CAD (+0.35%) which is benefitting from oil’s rally (+1.3%), although NOK (+0.1%) has seen less benefit.  EMG currencies, however, lean toward gains this morning, with MXN (+0.8%), BRL (+0.6%) and RUB (+0.6%) leading the way, each benefitting from higher commodity prices.  Even ZAR (+0.5%) is higher despite the lagging in precious metals.  But that story is far more focused on ZAR interest rates, which are an attractive carry play in a risk on scenario.  The laggards in this bloc are basically the CE4, tracking the euro, and even those losses are minimal.

While there is no data this morning in the US, we do have important statistics coming up later in the week as follows:

Wednesday ADP Employment 50K
ISM Services 56.7
Thursday Initial Claims 830K
Continuing Claims 4.7M
Nonfarm Productivity 4.0%
Unit Labor Costs -3.0%
Factory Orders 0.7%
Friday Non Farm Payrolls 60K
Private Payrolls 100K
Manufacturing Payrolls 31K
Unemployment Rate 6.7%
Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% (5.0% Y/Y)
Average Weekly Hours 34.7
Participation Rate 61.5%
Trade Balance -$65.7B
Consumer Credit $12.0B

Source: Bloomberg

So, plenty to see, but will we learn that much?  Obviously, all eyes will be on the payroll data, which given the rise in Initial Claims we have seen during the past month seems unlikely to surprise on the high side.  As such, anticipating sufficient data exuberance to get the Fed doves to talk about tapering seems remote.

Adding it all up leaves the current short dollar squeeze in place, with an opportunity, I think, for the euro to trade back below 1.20 for a time, but nothing we have seen or heard has changed my view that the dollar will fall in the second half of the year.  For those of you with payables, hedging sooner rather than later should be rewarded over time.

Good luck and stay safe
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GameStop

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The company still known as GameStop
Whose model for business, a mall shop
Was heavily shorted
Has seen those shorts thwarted
By buyers whose bubble will not pop

While I recognize GameStop (GME) seems to have absolutely nothing to do with the FX markets, I have been asked by a number of people to explain what happened, so I thought I would offer a relatively short explanation of the events, which were truly remarkable.  And arguably, this is much more about markets in general, and market sentiment in particular.

As always, I think a little perspective is in order.  GME was born in 1984 as Babbage’s in Dallas, Texas.  After a series of mergers, it was acquired by Barnes & Noble in 1999, who merged it with another company, Funco, Inc. and renamed this entity GameStop.  It went public in 2002, was spun off from Barnes & Noble in 2004, and then grew as a business.  Its business model was to be the go-to place for electronic games, and it eventually opened more than 5000 sites throughout malls in the US and around the world.  The problem, of course, is that even before Covid-19, bricks and mortar retail space was suffering.  This was especially so for this business, where games can be downloaded over the internet, and disks and cartridges have lost their appeal.  Covid seemed like the last straw, as malls all over the country were closing and saw extraordinary reductions in foot traffic, thus devastating the company’s business.

Over the course of the past twelve months, short interest in GME stock skyrocketed, as a number of hedge funds expected that the company would file Chapter 11 relatively soon.  After all, revenues had fallen more than 30% on a Q/Q and Y/Y basis, and profitability had disappeared.  In truth, it seemed a pretty logical bet.  However, hedge funds, being hedge funds, and reveling in as much leverage as possible given ZIRP, actually created short positions that grew to 140% of the outstanding float of the stock!  How, you may ask, is that possible?  Well, clearly, there was some naked shorting going on, which means that some of them were selling the stock without having borrowed it to deliver.  Oh, yeah, that is illegal these days.  It is also entirely possible that some brokers holding the stock rehypothecated it, meaning they lent it out more than once, also illegal.

Fast forward to three weeks ago, where a financial analyst, whose Reddit handle is Roaring Kitty, figured out that the short positions in this stock were untenable.  He posted on the Reddit thread WallStreetBets, which picked up traction and encouraged people to buy the stock.  Hence, the stock started to rise after months, if not years, in the doldrums.

The next step came from the options market, where the several million followers of WallStreetBets figured out that the leverage available in buying out of the money call options (also known as low delta call options) was extraordinary, and so they bought millions of them.

As a former option market maker (not in stocks, but FX, bonds and commodities), I can tell you that selling low delta options is a very dangerous trade.  This is because, if the market starts to move toward the strike price, as a hedger, I am forced to buy ever more underlying to hedge my position.  This is called gamma hedging and is the bread and butter of what options traders do all day long.  But the combination of the extraordinary demand for low delta GME calls and the recognition by the hedge funds with extensive short positions fed on itself into a frenzy.  At some point, the prime brokers who were handling those hedge funds’ business had to make margin calls and close out the short positions.  And those type of buyers are completely insensitive to price, because the prime broker doesn’t pay the freight, it is the hedge fund with the short position that is getting stopped out, that takes the losses.

Now, remember, because of the size of the short position, greater than the amount of stock outstanding, this process has taken a while to unfold, and is probably not done yet.  It has, however, busted those hedge funds, who have lost billions of dollars, as well has shown that they were not all that smart after all.  Alas, I fear that all the Robinhooders who were a huge proportion of the buyers are going to find themselves in a bad state as well.  After all, GME is still a dying business with the wrong business model for today.  A $1 billion market cap is probably a lot more appropriate than the current $23 billion market cap, so look for the stock to decline going forward, although probably not as quickly as it rose.

From our perspective, though, I think the lesson of GME is more about what it says about sentiment in the markets these days.  This type of price action and market activity has historically been confined to the last stages of a mania of some sort. In other words, to my eyes, and remember, I have seen market crashes starting in 1987, Tokyo in 1989, 1999-2000, and 2008-2009, this smacks of the true “irrational exuberance” made famous by former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan in 1996.  Whether it is rising rates, disappointment in the slower than expected rollout of the vaccine, or pressure on profit margins and earnings misses, I expect that shedding risk is going to be the norm for the next two quarters at least.  This is not to say we are going to see a collapse in stock markets, just that the gains of the pasts several months and years are unlikely to be repeated.

Which brings us to this morning, where the newest target for a short squeeze by the WSB crowd is silver.  Silver has opened higher by around 8%-10% and is now pressing $30/oz.  The last time silver traded above that level was March 2013, in the wake of the Eurozone debt crisis, and the only other time it did so was in 1980, when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.  Understand this, in 1980, the market was smaller, there were more natural buyers of silver for industrial uses, notably Eastman Kodak for film emulsion, and the Hunt’s failed dismally once the COMEX changed the rules.  Today, in a much larger market ($1.5 trillion) with far less industrial demand, this seems destined to fail, at least with respect to achieving the same type of impact as GME.  But that doesn’t mean the price can’t go higher in the short run.

Ok, on to FX, where today is PMI day, with the most noteworthy results coming from China over the weekend.  Noteworthy in the sense that they were all worse than expected (Mfg 51.3, Services 52.4 and Caixin 51.5) and all represented pretty big declines from last month.  In addition, the forward-looking pieces, like New Orders and Employment also fell sharply, so it doesn’t bode well for February.  Recall, China has locked down much of the northern part of the country to prevent the spread of Covid and this is occurring right before the start of the Lunar New Year holiday, the busiest travel time of the year, historically, in the country.  The point is, if expectations are for China’s economy to drive global growth, we could be seeing a longer delay before things pick up.

European PMI’s were generally in line with expectations on the manufacturing side and a number of other emerging market economies saw better than anticipated results.  Again, this simply highlights that the recovery in H1 is likely to be quite uneven.

As to markets, despite early losses in Asia and US futures, equity markets have turned around and were robustly higher overnight (Nikkei +1.55%, Hang Seng +2.15%, Shanghai +0.6%) and are all higher throughout Europe (DAX +1.5%, CAC +1.5%, FTSE 100 +1.2%).  US futures, which had opened the overnight session down as much as 1% are now all higher by more than that.

Bond markets are also demonstrating risk-on characteristics, albeit on a much more subdued basis.  Treasury yields have edged higher by 1.2bps, while bunds are essentially unchanged along with OATs and Gilts.  What we are seeing is PIGS bonds rallying with yields in Italy (-3.2bps) and Greece (-2.7bps) falling the most.

With silver leading the way, gold (+0.7%), too, is higher and so is crude oil (+0.5%).  In other words, risk is in favor here.  Interestingly, the FX market is not as convinced, at least not if we believe that risk-on is synonymous with a weaker dollar.  CHF (-0.6%) is the worst performer, which as a haven makes some sense, but EUR (-0.5%) leads the rest of the European group down, after German Retail Sales fell -9.6%!  The commodity currencies have not been as badly impacted (CAD -0.3%, AUD -0.2%).  Actually, today’s best performing G10 currency, other than the dollar, is the pound, which is basically flat as the success they’ve had with their vaccine program (13% of the population has already been vaccinated, the most by far for a large nation) has investors of the belief that the UK will lead the recovery.

EMG currencies are having a more mixed session with TRY (+1.7%) the leading gainer on further hawkish comments from the new central bank head there helping convince traders that tighter monetary policy will be with us for a while.  MXN (+1.15%) is next in line, on the strength of the commodity rally, along with ZAR (+0.75%) on the same basis.  Remember, Mexico is the largest silver producing country in the world, so the big rally in silver is clearly helping the peso.  On the downside, CNY (-0.6%) suffered on its data, and the CE4 are all falling similar amounts to the euro.  The rest of the bloc is less interesting and mixed as to gainers and losers.

On the data front, ISM Manufacturing (exp 60.0) is the main release today, with Construction Spending (+0.8%) due as well.  It is a payroll week, but I will delve into that more tomorrow as this note is already exceptionally long.  We do hear from three Fed speakers today, with a mix of uber doves and regular doves, so if anything, I expect that we will see more talk of needing more stimulus.  Speaking of which, the political fight over the proposed $1.9 trillion new bill continues but, in the end, you know that they will pass another bill with a lot more money being spent.

For all the conviction as the new year began that the dollar would decline sharply, the price action through January has clearly shaken some people.  However, positioning seems to be remaining steady, and I still believe that as inflation rises, real yields will fall sharply and the dollar along with it.  But for now, the dollar continues to push out the weak shorts, and quite frankly, this move does not feel like it is ending.  At this stage, a move in the euro toward 1.1950 seems quite viable.

Good luck and stay safe
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No Bubble’s Detected

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While Jay and his friends at the Fed
Claim when they are looking ahead
No bubble’s detected
So, they’ve not neglected
Their teachings and won’t be misled

But China views markets and sees
Their policy has too much ease
So, money they drained
As they ascertained
Investors, they need not appease

Perhaps there is no clearer depiction of the current difference between the Fed (and truly all G10 central banks) and the PBOC than the fact that last night, the PBOC drained liquidity from the market.  Not only did they drain liquidity, they explained that they were concerned about bubbles in asset markets like stocks and real estate, inflating because of current conditions.  Think about that, the PBOC did not simply discuss the idea that at some point in the future they may need to drain liquidity, they actually did so.  I challenge anyone to name a G10 central banker who could possibly be so bold.  Certainly not Chairman Powell, who tomorrow will almost certainly reiterate that this is not the time to be considering the removal of policy support.  Neither would ECB President Lagarde venture down such a road given the almost instantaneous damage that would inflict on the PIGS economies.

One cannot be surprised that stock markets fell in Asia after this action, with the Hang Seng (-2.6%) leading the way, while Shanghai (-1.5%) also fared poorly.  By contrast, the Nikkei’s -1.0% performance looked pretty good.  It should also be no surprise that the stock markets of the APAC nations whose trade relations with China define their economies saw weak outcomes.  Thus, Korea’s KOSPI (-2.1%) and Taiwan’s TAIEX (-1.8%) suffered as well.  And finally, it cannot be surprising that the Chinese renminbi traded higher (+0.15%) and is pushing back to levels last seen in June 2018.

Arguably, the key question here is, what does this mean for markets going forward?  Despite constant denials by every G10 central banker, it remains abundantly clear that equity market froth is a direct result of central bank policy.  The constant addition of liquidity to the economic system continues to spill into financial markets and push up equity (and bond and other asset) prices.  If the PBOC action were seen as a harbinger of other central bank activity, I expect that we would see a very severe repricing of risk assets.  However, a quick look at European equity markets shows that no such thing is occurring.  Rather, the powerful rally we are seeing across the board on the continent today (DAX +1.5%, CAC +1.1%, FTSE MIB +0.85%) indicates just the opposite.  Investors are not merely convinced that the ECB will never remove liquidity, but we are likely seeing some of the money that fled Asia finding a new home amid the easy money of Europe.

If the PBOC continues down this road, it is likely to have a far greater impact over time.  In fact, if they are successful in deflating the asset bubbles in China without crushing the economy, something that has never successfully been done by any central bank, it would certainly bode well for China going forward, as global investors would beat a path to their door.  While that is already happening (in 2020, for the first time, China drew more direct investment than the US), the speed with which it would occur could be breathtaking, especially in the current environment when capital moves at a blinding pace.  And that implies that Western equity markets might lose their allure and deflate.  The irony is that a communist nation firmly in the grip of the government would be deemed a better investment opportunity than the erstwhile bastion of free markets.  Ironic indeed!

However, that will only take place over a longer time frame, while we want to focus on today.  So, don’t ignore this occurrence, but don’t overreact either.

In the meantime, a look at today’s activity shows that there is little coherence in markets right now.  As you’ve seen, European equity markets are rallying nicely despite the fact that the Italian government just fell as PM Giuseppe Conte resigned.  A few months ago, this would have been seen as a significant negative for Italian assets, but not anymore.  Not only are Italian stocks higher, but BTP’s have seen yields decline another 3 basis points, taking their rally since Friday to 10 basis points!  As I have often written, BTP’s and the bonds of the other PIGS countries trade more like risk assets than havens, so it should be no surprise they are rallying.  In fact, haven assets all over are declining with Treasuries (+2.2bps), Bunds (+1.4bps) and Gilts (+1.6bps) all being sold today.

Recapping the action so far shows APAC stocks falling sharply, European stocks rallying sharply and haven bonds falling.  Is that risk-on?  Or risk-off?  Beats me!  Commodity prices point to risk-on, with oil rising 0.55% and most agricultural products higher by between 0.4%-1.0%.

Finally, looking at the dollar gives us almost no further information.  While the SEK (-0.25%) is under pressure on a complete lack of news, and the NZD (+0.2%) has moved higher after PM Arcern explained that the country would remain closed to outside travelers until the pandemic ended, the rest of the bloc is +/- 0.1% or less.  In the EMG bloc, the picture is also mixed, with KRW (-0.5%) the worst performer followed by IDR (-0.3%).  Given China’s monetary move last night, this should be no surprise.  On the plus side, TRY (+0.7%) leads the way followed by BRL (+0.4%), with the former benefitting from the IMF raising its GDP growth forecast to 6% in 2021, from a previous estimate of 5%. Meanwhile, the real has benefitted from the news that the BCB meeting last week contained discussions of raising interest rates from their current historically low level of 2.0%.  Concern over inflation picking up has some of the more hawkish members questioning the current policy stance.  Certainly, given that BRL has been one of the worst performing currencies for the past year, having declined 26% since the beginning of 2020, there is plenty of room for it to rise on the back of higher interest rates.

On the data front, this morning brings Case Shiller Home Prices (exp +8.7%) and Consumer Confidence (89.0).  On the former, this reflects historically low mortgage rates and a lack of inventory.  As to the latter, it must be remembered that this reading was above 120 for the entire previous Administration’s tenure until Covid came calling.  Alas, there is no indication that people are feeling ready to head back to the malls and movies yet.

With the FOMC on tap for tomorrow, I expect that the FX market will take its cues from equities.  If the US follows Europe, I would expect to see the dollar give up a little ground, but as I type, futures are little changed with no consistent direction.  While the dollar’s medium-term trend lower has been interrupted, for now, it also appears that the correction has seen its peak.  However, it could take a few more sessions before any downward pressure resumes in earnest, subject, naturally, to what the Fed tells us tomorrow.

Good luck and stay safe
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The Largesse They Bestow

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The status is clearly still quo
For central bank policy so
All rates are on hold
And markets consoled
By all the largesse they bestow

But Covid continues to spread
And Q1 growth seems to be dead
So, Christine and Jay
Will soon have to say
More QE is coming ahead

It has been an active week for central banks so far, at least with respect to the number of meetings being held.  By the end of today we will have heard from six different major central banks from around the world (Canada, Brazil, Japan, Indonesia, Norway and the ECB) although not one of them has changed policy one iota.  The implication is that monetary policy has found an equilibrium for now, with settings properly attuned to the current economic realities.

A summary of current central bank policies basically shows that whatever the absolute level of interest rates being targeted, it is almost universally at historically low levels, with 14 key banks having rates 0.25% or lower.  The point is, a central bank’s main tool is interest rate policy, and while negative nominal rates are clearly viable, after all the SNB, ECB and BOJ currently maintain them, central banks are clearly running out of ammunition.  (PS; the efficacy of negative rates has been widely argued and remains unproven.)  Interestingly, prior to this crisis, reserve requirements were seen as an important central banking tool, with a broad ability to inject more liquidity into the markets or remove it if so desired.  However, in the wake of the GFC, when banks worldwide were shown to be too-highly levered, it seems central banks are a bit more reluctant to open those floodgates.  Even if they did, though, it is unclear if it would make a difference.  Perhaps the lesson we should all learn from the Covid crisis, especially the central banks themselves, is that monetary policy is very good at slowing down economies all by itself, but when it comes to helping them pick up, they need help.

So, with interest rate policy basically at its limit, central banks have been forced to implement new and different tools in their quest to support their respective economies, with QE at the forefront.  Of course, at this point, QE has also become old hat, and has yet to be shown to support the economy.  It has, however, done a bang-up job supporting equity markets around the world, as well as other risk assets like commodities.  And that is exactly what it was designed to do.  QE’s transmission mechanism was to be a trickle-down philosophy, where the ongoing search for yield by investors pushed capital into riskier ventures, helping to support increased investment and more economic growth.  Alas, the only thing QE has really served to do is inflate a number of asset bubbles.  This was never clearer than when the data showed more money was spent by corporations on stock repurchases than on R&D.  Thus, if the stated goal of QE was to support economic growth, it is fair to say it has failed at that task.

At any rate, a recap of the central bank comments shows that economic forecasts and expectations have been tweaked lower for Q1 and higher for Q2 and Q3 with a universal assumption that the widespread inoculation of the population via the new vaccines will help reopen economies all over.  And yet, if anything, we continue to hear of more and more draconian measures being put into place to slow the spread of Covid.  This certainly confirms the idea of a weak Q1 growth pattern, but the leap to a stronger Q2 is harder to make in my mind.

Add it all up and it appears that central banks, globally, are pretty much all in the same position, promulgating extremely easy monetary policy with limited hope that it will, by itself, reignite economic growth.  In effect, until it is shown that the vaccines are really changing people’s behavior, assuming governments allow people back out of the house, central banks can do all they want, and it will not have much impact on the economy.  Markets, however, are a different story, as all that monetary largesse will continue to flow to the riskiest, highest yielding assets around.  Until they don’t!  It will not be pretty when this bubble deflates.

So, is that happening today?  Not even close.  Equity markets continue to rise almost universally, with the Nikkei (+0.8%) and Shanghai (+0.8%) leading the way in Asia.  Europe, meanwhile, is not quite as robust, but still largely in the green led by the DAX (+0.5%) and FTSE 100 (+0.25%) although the CAC (-0.1%) is lagging a bit.  And not surprisingly, US markets continue to power ahead on the ongoing belief that there will be yet more stimulus coming, so futures are all higher by roughly 0.3% or so.

Bond markets are playing their part as well, with 10-year yields higher in all the major markets, with Treasuries, Bunds, OATs and Gilts all seeing yields climb about 1 basis point.  The interesting thing about Treasuries, and truthfully all these markets, is that since the Georgia run-off election, when the market assumption for more stimulus was cemented, the yield has barely moved.  Let me say that the reflation trade seems to be on hold, at least for now.

For a change, oil prices have edged a bit lower this morning, with WTI down 0.6%, as it consolidates its spectacular gains since November.  Gold is little changed, although it had a big day yesterday, rising 1.5% as inflation concerns seem to be percolating.  And finally, as perhaps a harbinger of that deflating bubble, Bitcoin is lower this morning and has been falling pretty steadily, if with still spectacular volatility, for the past 2 weeks, and is now down 24% from its recent highs.

Finally, the dollar is under clear pressure this morning, falling against all its G10 peers and all but one of its EMG peers.  In G10, NOK (+0.8%) leads the way as the Norgesbank did not cut rates which some had expected and were less negative on the economy than expected as well.  But NZD (+0.7%) and SEK (+0.6%) are also putting in fine performances amid stronger commodities and hopes for more stimulus.  In fact, CAD (+0.15%) is the laggard, although it had a strong performance yesterday (+0.7%) after the BOC left rates on hold rather than performing a microcut (10 bps) as some analysts had expected.

In the EMG space, CLP (+1.15%) and BRL (+1.1%) lead the way with the former benefitting from strong investor demand in USD and EUR denominated government bonds, leading to a positive outlook, while the latter seems to be responding to hints that tighter policy may be coming soon given rising inflation forecasts.   But really, the dollar’s weakness is pervasive across all three major blocs.

We finally see some data today as follows: Initial Claims (exp 935K), Continuing Claims (5.3M), Housing Starts (1560K), Building Permits (1608K) and Philly Fed (11.8).  The Claims data has certainly deteriorated during the past several weeks given the renewed lockdowns around the country, which doesn’t bode well for the NFP report in 2 weeks’ time.  The housing market remains on fire given the ongoing exodus to the suburbs from large cities and the historically low mortgage rates.  Meanwhile, Philly Fed should show the strength of the manufacturing sector, which continues to far outperform services.

Still no Fed speakers, so beyond the data, which is all at 8:30, we will also hear from Madame Lagarde in her press conference at the same time.  The risk, to me, is that she comes off more dovish than the market anticipates, thus halting the euro’s modest rebound.  But otherwise, there is no obvious catalyst to stop the risk-on meme and dollar’s renewed decline.

Good luck and stay safe
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Desperate Straits

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When yield curve control was designed
Its goal was a rate be defined
Which can’t be exceeded
With bonds bought as needed
To help governments in a bind

Lagarde, though, when looking ahead
Must work at controlling the spread
So BTP rates
Don’t reach desperate straits
Vs. bunds, an outcome she would dread

Ahead of the inauguration of President Biden, the market has turned its focus to Europe and the ongoing situation in Italy.  Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has been struggling to lead a fractious coalition from the left and was just subject to no-confidence votes in both houses of the Italian government.  (They have a House and Senate similar to the US.)  This occurred when one of his former allies, Matteo Renzi, split from the coalition triggering the vote.  Renzi leads the Viva Italia party, a center-left group focused on progressive reforms to the Italian government, and it appears Conte has become a little too status quo for his taste.  While Conte was able to cobble together a majority in the lower house, today’s vote in the Senate was less successful, with a majority of votes cast, but no majority in the Senate overall.  This means he has a minority government whose stability has now been called into question.  Estimates are that he has two weeks to develop a majority or the President may call for parliament to be dissolved and new elections held.

As this story has unfolded, investors have been focused on the bond market, specifically the spread between Italian BTP’s and German bunds.  This spread is seen as a key metric, by both the market and the ECB, as to the health of the European economy overall.  The narrower that spread, the healthier the situation.  This is based on the idea that investors are not demanding as great a yield premium to fund Italy’s debt as they are Germany’s.

A quick history shows that for the first eight years of the euro’s existence, that spread hovered between 25 and 45 basis points, with investors not particularly concerned by Italy’s profligate ways.  The GFC awakened many to the potential risks in Italy and the spread ballooned as high as 160 basis points at that time.  But that was nothing compared to the Eurozone bond crisis in 2012, when Greece was on the ropes and the term PIGS was invented.  At that time, Italian yields peaked at 5.525% higher than German yields.  The second time this level was reached, in July 2012, led to Mario Draghi’s famous words, “whatever it takes” regarding the ECB’s will to save the euro.  Since that time, the spread has only ever edged below 1.0% briefly, lately reaching a peak of 2.8% at the beginning of the Covid crisis and currently trading around 1.14%.

The point here is that the ECB watches this spread very carefully.  But now, it appears they are interested in more than merely watching the spread.  Rather, they want to control it.  Yield curve control (YCC) is currently ongoing in both Japan and Australia and has generated a good deal of discussion in the US.  But those three central banks have a single government rate to manage.  The ECB has no such luck, and so they need to find other ways to control things.  Hence, their newest idea is Yield spread control (YSC), where the ECB will buy whatever amount of bonds are necessary to prevent a particular spread from rising above a particular level.  Obviously, this means they will be looking at the bonds of the PIGS, as those are the nations with the biggest outstanding issues.  The problem Lagarde has is the ECB, by law, is not allowed to finance government spending, and QE in Europe was designed to be implemented along the lines of the ECB buying bonds in proportion to national economic size.  But this will require something completely different, as in order to prevent that spread from widening beyond whatever level they choose, the ECB will need to purchase an unlimited number of Italian BTP’s.  As such, this idea is not without controversy, but do not be surprised to hear about it tomorrow when the ECB meeting ends.  While it may not be implemented right away, it does appear they are actively considering the idea.

At this point you are likely asking yourself why you care about this esoteric concept.  And the answer is because it will have an impact on the value of the euro, and therefore the dollar, going forward.  Given the current draconian lockdowns throughout Europe and the significant negative impact they will have on the Eurozone economy, and combine that with a political morass in the 3rd largest economy in the Eurozone, and you have a recipe for a more severe downturn in a double dip recession in Europe.  As the ECB has already used up its basic toolkit of extraordinary measures, it needs to develop new ones if it is to keep the money flowing.  And that is the point.  Especially after yesterday’s testimony by Janet Yellen, where it is clear that the Treasury is not going to slow down spending and the Fed will be right there buying up those new bonds, the ECB is growing concerned that the dollar could fall much further.  They have recently been reminding us that they are paying attention to the exchange rate, and while intervention is not likely in the cards, a new easing policy that results in lower yields and a correspondingly weaker euro just might be.  One has to be impressed with central bank creativity when it comes to spending/printing more money.

But for now, investors remain sanguine to the risk inherent in this strategy and continue to add risk to their portfolios.  This can be seen in the continued rallies in equity markets around the world.  For instance, last night saw strength throughout Asia, except for the Nikkei (-0.4%).  Europe, this morning is showing far more green than red (DAX +0.5%, CC +0.3%. FTSE 100 -0.1%) and US futures, following yesterday’s tech inspired rally, are all higher again this morning.

Bond markets are under pressure generally, with Treasury yields backing up 1.4bps, although still unable to break the recent highs of 1.15%, Gilts are also softer with yields higher by 1.2bps while bunds and OATs are little changed. BTP’s, however, have fallen ¼ point with yields higher by 2.5bps, which means that spread has risen by the same amount.  Keep an eye on this.

Oil (WTI +1.3%) and gold (+0.5%) are both firmer this morning while the dollar is broadly under pressure.  However, the magnitude of that weakness is fairly minimal, with AUD (+0.35%) the biggest gainer in the G10 on the back of firmer commodity prices, while SEK (-0.35%) is the laggard on what appears to be position unwinding.  The euro (-0.15%) is definitely not following a classic risk-on pattern here, with some reason to believe traders are beginning to take the YSC into account.  In the EMG space, the moves are also limited, with TRY (+0.4%) and BRL (+0.25%) the leading gainers while CE4 currencies (CZK and PLN both -0.1%) are the laggards.  But overall, the risk theme does not appear to be having an impact in FX.

Once again there is no data released today and we are still in the quiet period, so no Fedspeak.  And we don’t even have Yellen to testify, so the FX market is going to be paying attention to equity movements and the bond market, probably in that order.  If risk continues to be acquired, I expect the dollar will have difficulty gaining any traction, but if we start to see a reversal, don’t be surprised to see some of the massive dollar short positions unwound.

Good luck and stay safe
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Go Big

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This morning, a former Fed chair
Will speak and is set to declare
It’s time to “go big”
In order to dig
The nation out from its despair

After a quiet holiday shortened session yesterday, markets are showing modest positivity overall, although European equity markets seem to be lacking any oomph.  However, most other risk indicators are pointing to a resumption of risk appetite with haven assets declining, commodity prices rising and the dollar under pressure.

Though we await the outcomes from three key central bank meetings later this week, there is little in the way of data to consider otherwise, so market participants are looking for other potential catalysts.  Chief among those catalysts today is the testimony by former Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, in the Senate as she is being vetted for Treasury Secretary in the new administration.

According to the release of the prepared statement, ahead of questions, she will explain that the US has been suffering from a K-shaped recovery for many years (in fact since she exacerbated that situation as Fed chair) and therefore the government needs to support policies that will help more people.  On the subject of issuing more Treasury debt, it appears she has weighed the consequences of excessive government debt and will say, with rates so low, it is time to “go big” and issue even more in order to fund the new administration’s priorities.  One other key topic of market interest is the dollar, where she will explain that a market set exchange rate is the best possible outcome, and that should be true of all nations.

For our purposes, the question is how these policies will impact markets overall, and the dollar specifically.  It is abundantly clear from the Treasury market’s performance ever since the Georgia run-off elections (10-year yields have risen 20.6 basis points, including 3.6 today) that the market is already anticipating the Treasury ‘going big’ when it comes to further debt issuance.  In fact, that is part and parcel of the reflation trade that has come back into vogue, with the expected further steepening of the yield curve.  In other words, while there may be some pushback from specific Senators, it seems implausible that reconfirming there will be significant new debt issuance to fund deficits will be seen as a mainstream concern.  Rather, the question will be how the Fed will respond when interest rates continue to rise and the cost of funding all that new debt issuance increases.

As to the dollar, while it appears she will not explicitly state a preference with respect to a weak or strong dollar, it seems pretty clear that the combination of the new administration debt policies with a Fed that is unlikely to allow interest rates to rise to true market-clearing levels will result in significantly more negative real yields as inflation continues to rise.  The result of this process will inevitably be a much weaker dollar.  While the market is currently in a consolidation phase, the dollar’s weakness has been manifesting since last spring.  And though positioning in this trade is huge, it does not mean the idea underpinning those positions is wrong.  As well, I believe there will be a very clear signal for when the dollar will begin it next leg lower; the Fed hinting at   whatever rate mitigation strategy they choose will be clear evidence that the negative real yield structure will expand, and the dollar will henceforth decline more substantially.  However, it could well be several months before that is the case, as we will need to see a continued climb in inflation data as well as the increased debt issuance to drive nominal interest rates higher thus forcing the Fed’s response.

But, as I said, that dollar story is still several months into the future, so let us focus on today’s happenings.  Overall, risk appetite is continuing to improve.  Asian equity markets were mostly stronger (Nikkei +1.4%, Hang Seng +2.7%) although Shanghai (-0.8%) didn’t manage to join in the fun.  While money is flowing rapidly into Hong Kong, it seems there is some concern that the PBOC may be tapping the brakes on liquidity in the real estate market in China, thus removing some of the spare cash and hurting equities as a side effect.  Europe, though, has had a different type of session this morning, with the three main markets all just marginally higher (DAX +0.3%, CAC +0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.2%) and several continental exchanges in the red.  The most notable piece of data from the Eurozone was the German ZEW Expectations survey, which was released slightly better than expected at 61.8, which while historically low, does indicate continue confidence in a recovery there.  US futures, though, are all in for more government spending and are currently higher by between 0.65% (DOW) and 1.0% (NASDAQ).  Clearly, there is no concern over too much debt there.

Speaking of debt, bond markets are behaving as you would expect in a risk-on scenario, with haven bonds declining around the world.  While Treasury yields have risen the most on the day, we seen Bunds (+1.1bps), OATs (+0.5bps) and Gilts (+1.5bps) all under pressure this morning.  Similarly, the PIGS are seeing demand grow on the back of increasing risk appetite with yields in those four nations’ bonds declining between 1 and 2 basis points.

Commodity prices are firmer with oil higher by 0.4% and the ags al looking at gains of between 0.25% and 2.0%, with most of them at multi-year highs.  And finally, the dollar is under pressure almost universally, with only JPY (-0.3%) weaker in the G10, the classic risk-on price action.  SEK (+0.9%) and NOK (+0.8%) are leading the way higher here, with oil clearly supporting the latter while the former is simply demonstrating its high beta with respect to the euro (+0.45%).

In the EMG bloc, ZAR (+1.3%) leads the way on the stronger commodity story, while BRL (+0.85%) and HUF (+0.8%) are next in line.  The real seems to be responding to both firmer commodity prices as well as news that the Covid vaccination program, which had been delayed through bureaucratic misfires, is finally set to get going, which is especially important given the surge in cases there.  As to HUF, the story is more about the CE4 rallying with the euro than with any specific economic or political stories from the country.  But the entire EMG bloc is higher, with the worst performers simply unchanged on the day.

On the data front, there is no mainstream data today, and no Fed speakers either as we are in the quiet period ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.  Which brings us back to Yellen’s testimony as the most significant potential new information we are likely to see.  As Fed chair, she was one of the most dovish in history and there is no reason to believe that she will have changed that stance as Treasury secretary.  Instead, I fear we will see a virtual combination of the Fed and Treasury, and the resultant monetization of US debt will be a long term drag on the economy amid rising inflation.  That is not a dollar positive, I assure you, but not today’s problem.

Good luck and stay safe
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The UK’s Current Plight

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In England, the doves are in flight
Explaining that NIRP is alright
But hawks keep maintaining
That zero’s restraining
Despite the UK’s current plight

What we’ve learned thus far in 2021 is that Monday is risk-off day, at least, so far.  Yesterday, for the second consecutive week, risk was under pressure as equity markets everywhere fell, while the dollar rallied sharply.  But just like last week, where risk was avidly sought once Monday passed, this morning has seen a rebound in many equity markets, as well as renewed pressure on the dollar.

But aside from a very early assessment of a potential pattern forming, this morning brings a dearth of market-moving news.  Perhaps the most interesting is the battle playing out inside the BOE, where Silvana Tenreyo, one of the more dovish MPC members, has been making the case that in the current situation, the UK should cut the base rate into negative territory.  Her analysis, as well as that of other central banks like the ECB, SNB and Danish central bank, have shown that there are many benefits to the policy and that it has been quite effective.  Of course, those are three of four central banks (the BOJ is the other) that currently maintain negative rates, so it would be pretty remarkable if those studies said NIRP was a failure.  The claim is that NIRP increases the amount of lending that banks extend, thus encouraging spending and investment as well as weakening the currency to help the export industries in the various countries.  And the studies go on to explain that all these factors help drive inflation higher, a key goal of each of those central banks.

Now, there is no question that those are the theoretical underpinnings of NIRP, alas, it is hard to find the data to support this.  Rather, these studies tend to give counterfactual analyses, that indicate if the central banks had not gone negative, things would have been worse.  For instance, let’s look at CPI in the Eurozone (-0.3%), Switzerland (-0.8%) and Denmark (+0.5%).  Not for nothing, but those hardly seem like data that indicate inflation has been supported.  In fact, in each of these countries, inflation was going nowhere fast before the pandemic, although I will grant that Covid has depressed the numbers further to date.  And how about the currency?  Well, one of the biggest stories of the past six months has been how the dollar has declined nearly 10% against these currencies.  Once again, the concept of a weaker currency seems misplaced.

The point here is that the discussion is heating up in the UK, with the independent MPC members pushing for a move below zero, while the BOE insiders are far more reluctant, explaining that the banking system would see serious harm.  (I think if one looks at the banking system in Europe, it is a fair statement that the banks there are not performing all that well, despite (because of?) 6 years of NIRP.  The BOE counterpoint was made this morning by Governor Bailey who explained there were still many issues to be addressed and implied NIRP was not likely to be implemented in the near future.  With all this as background, it should be no surprise that the pound has been the best performer in the G10 today, rising 0.6%, after Bailey’s comments squashed ideas NIRP was on its way soon.

But the dollar, overall, is softer today, not nearly reversing yesterday’s gains (except vs. the pound), but generally under pressure.  However, there is precious little that seems to be driving markets this morning, other than longer term stories regarding fiscal stimulus and Covid-19.

So, a quick tour of markets shows that Asian equity markets shook off the weakness in the US yesterday and rallied nicely.  The Nikkei (+0.1%) was the laggard, as the Hang Seng (+1.3%) and Shanghai (+2.1%) showed real strength.  Europe, on the other hand, is showing a much more mixed picture, wit the DAX (+0.1%) actually the best performer of the big 3, while the CAC (0.0%) and FTSE 100 (-0.6%) are searching for buying interests.  The FTSE is likely being negatively impacted by the pound’s strength, as there is a narrative that the large exporters in the index are helped by a weak pound and so there is a negative correlation between the pound and the FTSE.  The problem with that is when running the correlation analysis, over the past two years, the correlation is just 0.08% and the sign is positive, meaning they move together, not oppositely.  But it is a nice story!  And one more thing, US futures are green, up about 0.25% or so.

Bond markets are selling off this morning as yields continue to rise on expectations that the future is bright.  10-year Treasury yields are up to 1.16%, which is a new high for the move, having rallied a further 1.2bps this morning.  But we are seeing the same type of price action throughout Europe, with yields higher by between 1.7 bps (Bunds) and 4.0bps (Italian BTP’s), with Gilts (+2.3bps) and OATs (+2.0bps) firmly in between.  What I find interesting about this movement is the constant refrain that H1 2021 is going to be much worse than expected, with the Eurozone heading into a double dip recession and the US seeing much slower than previously expected growth as many analysts have downgraded their estimates to 1.0% from 4.0% before.  At the same time, the message from the Fed continues to be that tighter policy is outcome based, and there is no indication they are anywhere near thinking about raising rates.  With that as background, the best explanation I can give for higher yields is concerns over inflation.  Remember, CPI is released tomorrow morning, and since the summer, almost every release was higher than forecast.  As I have written before, the Fed is going to be tested as to their tolerance for above target inflation far sooner than they believe.

The inflation story is supported, as well, but this morning’s commodity price moves, with oil higher by 1.3% and gold higher by 0.8%.  In fact, I believe that inflation is going to become an increasingly bigger story as the year progresses, perhaps reaching front page news before the end of 2021.

Finally, as mentioned above, the dollar is under broad-based, but generally modest pressure this morning.  After the pound, AUD (+0.35%) and CAD (+0.25%) are the leading gainers, responding to the firmer commodity prices, although NOK (0.0%) is not seeing any benefit from oil’s rise.  In the EMG space, it is also the commodity linked currencies that are leading the way, with ZAR (+0.9%), RUB (+0.8%) and MXN (+0.5%) topping the list.  Also, of note is the CNY (+0.3%) which is back to levels last seen in June 2018, as the strengthening trend their continues.

On the data front, the NFIB Small Business Optimism index showed less optimism, falling to 95.9, well below expectations, again pointing to a slowing growth story in H1.  The only other data point from the US is JOLT’s Job Openings (exp 6.4M), which rarely has any impact.  I would like to highlight, in the inflation theme, that Brazilian inflation was released this morning at a higher than expected 4.52% in December, which is taking it back above target and to levels last seen in early 2019.  If this continues, BRL may become a high yielder again.

Finally, we hear from 6 different Fed speakers today, but again, unless they all start to indicate tighter policy, not just better economic outcomes, in H2, while the dollar may benefit slightly, it will not turn the current trend.  And that’s really the story, the medium-term trend in the dollar remains lower, but for now, absent a catalyst for the next leg (something like discussion of YCC or increased QE), I expect a bit of choppiness.

Good luck and stay safe
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Perfect Right Here

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Said Harker, by end of this year
A taper could be drawing near
But Mester explained
No cash would be drained
As policy’s perfect right here

Ahead of this morning’s payroll report, I believe it worthwhile to recap what we have been hearing from the FOMC members who have been speaking lately.  After all, the Fed continues to be the major force in the market, so maintaining a clear understanding of their thought process can only be a benefit.

The most surprising thing we heard was from Philadelphia Fed president Harker, who intimated that while he saw no reason to change things right now, he could see the Fed beginning to taper their asset purchases by the end of 2021 or early 2022.  Granted, that still implies an additional $1 trillion plus of purchases, but is actually quite hawkish in the current environment where expectations are for rates to remain near zero for at least the next three years.  Given what will almost certainly be a significant increase in Treasury issuance this year, if the Fed were to step back from the market, we could see significantly higher rates in the back end of the curve.  And, of course, it has become quite clear that will not be allowed as the government simply cannot afford to pay higher rates on its debt.   As well, Dallas Fed President Kaplan also explained his view that if the yield curve steepened because of an improved growth situation in the US, that would be natural, and he would not want to stop it.

But not to worry, the market basically ignored those comments as evidenced by the fact that the equity market, which will clearly not take kindly to higher interest rates in any form, rallied further yesterday to yet more new all-time highs.

At the same time, three other Fed speakers, one of whom has consistently been the most hawkish voice on the committee, explained they saw no reason at all to adjust policy anytime soon.  Regional Fed presidents from Cleveland (Loretta Mester), Chicago (Charles Evans) and St Louis (James Bullard) were all quite clear that it was premature to consider adjusting policy as a response to the Georgia election results and the assumed increases in fiscal stimulus that are mooted to be on the way.

Recapping the comments, it is clear that there is no intention to adjust policy, meaning either the Fed Funds rate or the size of QE purchases, anytime soon, certainly not before Q4.  And if you consider Kaplan’s comments more fully, he did not indicate a preference to reduce support, just that higher long-term rates ought to be expected in a well-performing economy.  Vice-Chairman Clarida speaks this morning, but it remains difficult to believe that he will indicate any changes either.  As I continue to maintain, the government’s ability to withstand higher interest rates on a growing amount of debt is limited, at best, and the only way to prevent that is by the Fed capping yields.  Remember, while the Fed has adjusted its view on inflation, now targeting an average inflation rate, they said nothing about allowing yields to rise alongside that increased inflation.  Again, the dollar’s performance this year will be closely tied to real (nominal – inflation) yields, and as inflation rises in a market with capped yields, the dollar will decline.

Turning to this morning’s payroll release, remember, Wednesday saw the ADP Employment number significantly disappoint, printing at -123K, nearly 200K below expectations.  As of now, the current median forecasts are as follows:

Nonfarm Payrolls 50K
Private Payrolls 13K
Manufacturing Payrolls 16K
Unemployment Rate 6.8%
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% (4.5% Y/Y)
Average Weekly Hours 34.8
Participation Rate 61.5%
Consumer Credit $9.0B

Source: Bloomberg

These numbers are hardly representative of a robustly recovering economy, which given the cresting second wave of Covid infections and the lockdowns that have been imposed in response, ought not be that surprising.  The question remains, will administration of the vaccine be sufficient to change the trajectory?  While much has been written about pent up demand for things like travel and movies, and that is likely the case, there has been no indication that governments are going to roll back the current rules on things like social distancing and wearing masks.  One needs to consider whether those rules will continue to discourage those very activities, and thus, crimp the expected recovery.  Tying it together, a slower than expected recovery implies ongoing stimulus

But you don’t need me to explain that permanent stimulus remains the basic premise, just look at market behavior.  After yesterday’s US equity rally, we have seen a continuation around the world with Japan’s Nikkei (+2.35%) leading the way in Asia, but strength in the Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Australia (+0.7%), although Shanghai (-0.2%) didn’t really participate.  Europe, too, is all green, albeit in more measured tones, with the DAX (+0.8%) leading the way but gains in the CAC (+0.5%) and FTSE 100 (+0.2%) as well as throughout the rest of the continent.  And finally, US futures are all pointing higher at this hour, with all three indices up by 0.25%-0.35%.

The Treasury market, which has sold off sharply in the past few sessions, is unchanged this morning, with the yield on the 10-year sitting at 1.08%.  In Europe, haven assets like bunds, OATs and gilts are little changed this morning, but the yields on the PIGS are all lower, between 1.6bps (Spain) and 3.9bps (Italy).  Again, those bonds behave more like equities than debt, at least in the broad narrative.

In the commodity space, oil continues to rally, up another 1.3% this morning, and we continue to see strength in base metals and ags, but gold is under the gun, down 1.1%, and clearly in disfavor in this new narrative of significant new stimulus and growth.  Interestingly, bitcoin, which many believe as a substitute for gold has continued to rally, vaulting through $41k this morning.

And lastly, the dollar, which everyone hates for this year, is ending the week on a mixed note.  In the G10, NOK (+0.3%) is the best performer, as both oil’s rise and much better than expected IP data have investors expecting continued strength there.  But after that, the rest of the bloc is +/- 0.2% or less, implying there is no driving force here, rather that we are seeing position adjustments and, perhaps, real flows as the drivers.

In the emerging markets, ZAR (+1.2%) and BRL (+0.6%) are the leading gainers, while IDR (-0.8%) and CLP (-0.6%) are the laggards.  In fact, other than those, the bloc is also split, like the G10, with winners and losers of very minor magnitude.  Looking first at the rand, today’s gains appear to be position related as ZAR has been under pressure all week, declining more than 5.6% prior to today’s session.  BRL, too, is having a similar, albeit more modest, correction to a week where it has declined more than 5% ahead of today’s opening.  Both those currencies are feeling strain from weakening domestic activity, so today’s gains seem likely to be short-lived.  On the downside, IDR seems to be suffering from rising US yields, as the attractiveness of its own debt starts to wane on a relative basis.  As to Chile, rising inflation seems to be weighing on the currency as there is no expectation for yields to rise in concert, thus real yields there are under pressure.

And that’s really it for the day.  We have seen some significant movement this week, as well as significant new news with the outcome of the Georgia election, so the narrative has had to adjust slightly.  But in the end, it is still reflation leads to higher equities and a lower dollar.  Plus ça change, plus ça meme chose!

Good luck, good weekend and stay safe
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Infinite Easing

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Until “further progress” is made
On joblessness, Jay won’t be swayed
From infinite easing
Which stocks should find pleasing
Explaining how he will get paid

As well, one more time he inferred
That Congress was being absurd
By not passing bills
With plenty of frills
So fiscal relief can be spurred

“We’re going to keep policy highly accommodative until the expansion is well down the tracks.”  This statement from Chairman Powell in yesterday’s post-meeting press conference pretty much says it all with respect to the Fed’s current collective mindset.  While the Fed left the policy rate unchanged, as universally expected, they did hint at the idea that additional QE is still being considered with a subtle change in the language of their statement.  Rather than explaining they will increase their holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities “at least at the current pace”, they now promise to do so by “at least $80 billion per month” in Treasuries and “at least $40 billion per month” in mortgages.  And they will do this until the economy reaches some still unknown level of unemployment alongside their average 2% inflation target.

What is even more interesting is that the Fed’s official economic forecasts were raised, as GDP growth is now forecast at 4.2% for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, each of these being raised by 0.2% from their September forecasts.  At the same time, Unemployment is expected to fall to 5.0% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022, again substantially better than September’s outlook of 5.5% and 4.6% respectively.  As to PCE Inflation, the forecasts were raised slightly, by 0.1% for both years, but remain below their 2% target.

Put it all together and you come away with a picture of the Fed feeling better about the economy overall, albeit with some major risks still in the shadows, but also prepared to, as Mario Draghi declared in 2012, “do whatever it takes” to achieve their still hazy target of full employment and average inflation of 2%.  For the equity bulls out there, this is exactly what they want to hear, more growth without tighter policy.  For dollar bears, this is also what they want to hear, a steady supply increase of dollars that need to wash through the market, driving the value of the dollar lower.  For the reflatonistas out there, those who are looking for a steeper yield curve, they took heart that the Fed did not extend the duration of their purchases, and clearly feel better about the more upbeat growth forecasts, but the ongoing lack of inflation, at least according to the Fed, means that the rationale for higher bond yields is not quite as clear.

After all, high growth with low inflation would not drive yields higher, especially in the current world with all that liquidity currently available.  And one other thing argues against much higher Treasury yields, the fact that the government cannot afford them.  With the debt/GDP ratio rising to 127% this year, and set to go higher based on the ongoing deficit spending, higher yields would soak up an ever increasing share of government revenues, thus crowding out spending on other things like the entitlement programs or defense, as well as all discretionary spending.  With this in mind, you can be sure the Fed is going to prevent yields from going very high at all, for a very long time.

Summing up, the last FOMC meeting of the year reconfirmed what we already knew, the Fed is not going to tighten monetary policy for many years to come.  For their sake, and ours, I sure hope inflation remains as tame as they forecast, because in the event it were to rise more sharply, it could become very uncomfortable at the Mariner Eccles Building.

In the meantime, this morning brings the last BOE rate decision of the year, with market expectations universal that no changes will be forthcoming.  That makes perfect sense given the ongoing uncertainty over Brexit, although this morning we heard from the EU’s top negotiator, Michel Barnier, that good progress has been made, with only the last stumbling blocks regarding fishing to be agreed.  However, in the event no trade deal is reached, the BOE will want to have as much ammunition as possible available to address what will almost certainly be some major market dislocations.  As I type, the pound is trading above 1.36 (+0.8% on the day) for the first time since April 2018 and shows no signs of breaking its recent trend.  I continue to believe that a successful Brexit negotiation is not fully priced in, so there is room for a jump if (when?) a deal is announced.

And that’s really it for the day, which has seen a continuation of the risk-on meme overall.  Looking at equity markets, Asia saw strength across the board (Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Shanghai +1.1%), although Europe has not been quite as universally positive (DAX +0.8%, CAC +0.4%, FTSE 100 0.0%).  US futures markets are pointing higher again, with all three indices looking at 0.5%ish gains at this time.

The bond market is showing more of a mixed session with Treasuries off 2 ticks and the yield rising 0.7bps, while European bond markets have all rallied slightly, with yields declining across the board between 1 and 2 basis points. Again, if inflation is not coming to the US, and the Fed clearly believes that to be the case, the rationale for higher Treasury yields remains absent.

Commodity markets are feeling good this morning with gold continuing its recent run, +0.7%, while oil prices have edged up by 0.3%.  And finally, the dollar is on its heels vs. essentially all its counterparts this morning, in both G10 and EMG blocs.  Starting with the G10, NOK (+1.0%) is the leader, although AUD and NZD (+0.8% each) are benefitting from their commodity focus along with the dollar’s overall weakness.  In fact, the euro (+0.3%) is the laggard here, while even JPY (+0.4%) is rising despite the risk-on theme.  This simply shows you how strong dollar bearishness is, if it overcomes the typical yen weakness attendant to risk appetite.

In the emerging markets, it is also the commodity focused currencies that are leading the way, with ZAR (+0.9%) and CLP (+0.75%) on top of the leaderboard, but strong gains in RUB (+0.7%), BRL (+0.6%) and MXN (+0.5%) as well.  The CE4, have been a bit less buoyant, although all are stronger on the day.  But this is all of a piece, stronger commodity prices leading to a weaker dollar.

On the data front, I think we are in an asymmetric reaction function, where strong data will be ignored while weak data will become the rationale for further risk appetite.  This morning we see Initial Claims (exp 815K), Continuing Claims (5.7M), Housing Starts (1535K), Building Permits (1560K), and Philly Fed (20.0).  Yesterday saw a much weaker than expected Retail Sales outcome (-1.1%, -0.9% ex autos) although the PMI data was a bit better than expected.  But now that the Fed has essentially said they are on a course regardless of the data, with the only possible variation to be additional easing, data is secondary.  The dollar downtrend is firmly entrenched at this time, and while we will see reversals periodically, and the trend is not a collapse, there is no reason to believe it is going to end anytime soon.

Good luck and stay safe
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Unrequited

Posted on by

It cannot be very surprising
That Boris and friends keep devising
More reasons to talk
Yet both sides still balk
At genuinely compromising

For now, though, the market’s delighted
With risk appetite reignited
Pound Sterling has soared
With stocks ‘cross the board
Though bond love has been unrequited

Aahh, sweet temptation.  I’m sure most of us know, firsthand, how difficult it can be to impose self-control when it comes to something we really want, but know we shouldn’t have, like that extra cookie after dinner.  Or perhaps, it is the situation of something we really don’t want, but know we need, like that trip to the dentist.  In either case, getting ourselves to do the right thing can be an extraordinary struggle.  That is the best analogy I can find for the countless Brexit trade talk deadlines that have been made and passed since the actual Brexit agreement was signed on January 31, 2020.

You may recall last Thursday’s dinner date between Boris and Ursula, where the outcome was a declaration that if a deal could not be reached by the weekend’s close (yesterday), none would ever come.  The thing about Brexit deadlines, however, is that they only exist in the mind of the individual setting them.  It appears to be a tool designed to impose self-control on the speaker.  However, like so many of us, when we claim we will eat only one cookie, we find the temptation to eat another too great to ignore.  This appears to be the same situation when it comes to establishing Brexit talk deadlines, both sides really want a deal, and hope that a deadline will be the ticket to finding one that can be agreed.  But in the end, the only true deadline is the one inscribed in the Brexit agreement, which is December 31, 2020.  And with that as prelude, it is quite clear that the latest deadline has been ignored, and both sides have explained that a deal is within reach and they will continue talking, right up until New Year’s Eve if necessary.

This past Friday, there were rumors rampant that the whole situation would fall apart, and that risk would be jettisoned as soon as markets opened in Asia last night.  Expectations were for a huge Treasury rally, with sharp declines in stock markets.  But for now, that situation remains on hold, and the good news has inspired further risk acquisition, with most equity markets solidly higher along with oil while bonds are selling off along with the dollar.

As I have maintained for the past several months, despite all the rhetoric on both sides, the most likely outcome remains a successful conclusion to the talks.  It is unambiguously in both sides’ interest to agree a deal, and everything that we have seen has been for each sides’ domestic constituents as proof they fought to the last possible second and got the best deal possible.  In fact, part of me believes a deal has already been agreed, it just hasn’t yet been revealed as the timing is not propitious for both sides.  Whatever the situation, though, for now, the market has been satisfied that there is nothing imminent that is going to stop the risk rally.

And that pretty much sums up the session, there is nothing imminent that is going to stop the risk rally.  Looking ahead for the week, Retail Sales on Wednesday morning is arguably the most important data point, but of more importance is the FOMC meeting that same day, with the afternoon statement and press conference.  We will focus on that tomorrow and Wednesday, but as of now, there is no change expected in either the interest rate structure or quantity of QE, but there is some discussion of a change in tenor of QE purchases.

With all that in mind, then, let us look at markets overnight.  As discussed, risk appetite is growing as a combination of the positive Brexit story and the first rollouts of the Covid vaccine encourage the outlook that the timeline for reigniting economic growth is nearing.  Adding to this story is the news that a US fiscal stimulus bill may be close to being agreed, and, naturally, we know that every central bank will continue to add liquidity to the markets for as long as they deem fit, which currently seems to be indefinitely.  Interestingly, this is all occurring despite Germany imposing renewed harsh lockdowns through January, and word that we are going to see the same in Italy, Spain and the UK.

But here’s what we have seen.  Asian equity markets were generally positive (Nikkei +0.3%, Shanghai +0.7%) although the Hang Seng (-0.4%) lagged.  European markets are all higher, with some pretty good gains (DAX +1.25%, CAC +1.1%) although the FTSE 100 (+0.4%) is lagging on the strength of the pound, which negatively impacts so many companies in the index.  And finally, US futures are all green with gains between 0.6% and 0.9%.

Bond markets are selling off, which should be no surprise, with Treasury yields higher by 2.5 bps, although most of Europe has seen more moderate price declines, with yields higher by less than 2 basis points across the board.  With one exception, UK gilts have seen yields rise 6.7 basis points, as hopes for a Brexit deal have led to a lot of unwinding of Friday’s rally.

Meanwhile, oil prices are firmer (WTI +1.1%) but gold is actually softer (-0.7%) despite the dollar’s broad weakness.  In the G10 space, GBP (+1.5%) is the leader by far, as renewed hope has forced some short covering.  But the entire bloc is firmer with NOK (+1.1%) benefitting from oil’s rise, while the rest of the group has gained on a more general risk appetite with gains between 0.2% (CAD) and 0.6% (SEK).  The surprise here is JPY (+0.3%) which given the risk attitude, would have been expected to decline as well.

EMG currencies are mostly firmer, but the move seems to have ignored peripheral APAC currencies, where a group have seen very modest declines of 0.1% or so.  On the plus side, however, ZAR (+1.0%) leads the way, despite weaker gold prices, as Consumer Confidence data was released at a strong gain compared to Q3.  Elsewhere, BRL (+0.7%) and PLN (+0.7%) are the next best performers, with broad dollar sentiment the clear driver.  In fact, the entire CE4 is strong, as they demonstrate their ongoing high beta performance compared to the euro (+0.35%).

Data this week is really concentrated on Wednesday, but is as follows:

Tuesday Empire Manufacturing 6.9
IP 0.3%
Capacity Utilization 70.3%
Wednesday Retail Sales -0.3%
-ex autos 0.1%
FOMC Rate Decision 0.00% – 0.25%
Thursday Initial Claims 823K
Continuing Claims 5.7M
Philly Fed 20.0
Housing Starts 1533K
Building Permits 1558K
Friday Leading Indicators 0.4%

Source: Bloomberg

So, really, all eyes will be turned toward Washington and Chairman Powell as we await any indication that the Fed is going to change policy further.  Expectations are growing around new forward guidance, for explicit economic targets to be achieved before adjusting rates, but in any case, there is no expectation for rates to rise before the end of 2023.  Perhaps new forecasts and the new dot plot will add some new information, but I doubt it.

For now, risk remains in vogue, and as long as that remains the case, the dollar will remain under pressure.  But don’t expect a collapse, instead a modest decline, at least vs. the G10.  Certainly, there are some emerging currencies, notably BRL, which I think have room to run a bit more.

Good luck and stay safe
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