Tag Archives: #riskon

Despite Cash

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In China the stock market sank
Despite cash from its central bank
But elsewhere it seems
The narrative deems
Investors, the Kool-Aid, have drank

So, it can be no surprise that after a one and a half week hiatus, the Chinese equity markets sold off dramatically (Shanghai -7.8%) when they reopened last night. After all, equity markets elsewhere in the world had all been under pressure for the entire time as the novel coronavirus spread seemed to accelerate. Of course, since Chinese markets closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, major global markets in the west had fallen only between 3.5% and 4.0%. But given China is the country whose economy will be most impacted, the ratio doesn’t seem wrong.

What we learned over the weekend, though, is that the acceleration has not yet begun to slow down. The latest data shows over 17,000 infected and over 300 deaths are now attributable to this illness. Most epidemiological models indicate that we have not reached the peak, and that it would not be surprising to see upwards of a quarter of a million cases within the next month or two. Remember too, this assumes that the information coming from China is accurate, which given the global reaction to the situation, may be a big ask. After all, I’m pretty sure President Xi Jinping does not want to be remembered as the leader of China when it unleashed a global pandemic. You can be sure that there will be a lot of finger-pointing in China for the rest of 2020, as some heads will need to roll in order to placate the masses, or at least to placate Xi.

But in what has been a classic case of ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’, equity markets in the rest of the world seem to have gotten over their collective fears as we see modest strength throughout Europe (DAX +0.2%, CAC +0.2% FTSE +0.4%) and US futures are all pointing higher as well. So at this point in time, it appears that the market’s modest correction last week is seen as sufficient to adjust for what will certainly be weaker growth globally, at least in Q1 2020. Something tells me that there is further repricing to be seen, but for now, the default belief is that the Fed and other central banks will do “whatever it takes” as Signor Draghi once said, to prevent an equity market collapse. And that means that selling risk would be a mistake.

With that as prelude, let’s turn our attention to what is happening away from the virus. The biggest FX mover overnight has been the pound, which has fallen 1.1% after tough talk from both PM Boris Johnson and EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier. The market’s concern seems to be that there will be no agreement reached and thus come December, we will have a Brexit redux. I am strongly in the camp that this is just posturing and that come June, when the decision for an extension must be made, it will be done under the guise of technical aspects, and that a deal will be reached. Neither side can afford to not reach a deal. In fact, one of the key discussion points in Europe this morning is the fact that the EU now has a €6 billion hole in its budget and there is nobody able to fill the gap.

On the data front, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data was modestly better than forecast, with the bloc-wide number at 47.9, still contractionary, but Italy, France and Germany all edging higher by a tenth or two. However, despite the modestly better data and the modest uptick in equity markets, the single currency is under some pressure this morning, down 0.25%, as the market adjusts its outlook for Fed activity. It remains pretty clear that the ECB is already doing everything it can, so the question becomes will the Fed ease more aggressively as we go forward, especially if we start to see weaker data on the back of the coronavirus situation. Friday’s market activity saw futures traders reprice their expectations for Fed rate cuts, with the first cut now priced for July and a second for December. And that rate change was what undermined the dollar during Friday’s session, as it suddenly appeared that the US would be stepping on the monetary accelerator. In fairness, if the quarantine in China continues through the end of Q1, a quick Fed rate cut seems pretty likely. We shall see how things evolve. However, this morning sees a bit less fear all over, and so less need for Fed action.

The other main mover in the G10 was NOK (-0.7%), which given how much oil prices have suffered, seems quite reasonable. There is a story that Chinese oil demand has fallen 20% since the outbreak, as the combination of factory closures and quarantines reducing vehicle traffic has taken its toll. In fact, OPEC is openly discussing a significant production cut to try to rebalance markets, although other than the Saudis, it seems unlikely other producers will join in. But away from those currencies, the G10 space is in observation mode.

In the emerging markets, it should be no surprise that CNY is much weaker, falling 1.1% on-shore (catching up to the offshore CNH) and trading below (dollar above) 7.00. Again, that seems pretty appropriate given the situation, and its future will depend on just how big a hit the economy there takes. Surprisingly, the big winner today is ZAR, which has rebounded 1.0% after Friday’s sharp decline which took the currency through the 15.0 level for the first time since October. In truth, this feels more like a simple reaction to Friday’s movement than to something new. If anything, this morning’s PMI data from South Africa was much worse than expected at 45.2, which would have seemingly undermined the currency, not bolstered it.

On the data front, this week will be quite active as we see the latest payroll data on Friday, and a significant amount of new data between now and then.

Today ISM Manufacturing 48.5
  ISM Prices Paid 51.5
  Construction Spending 0.5%
Tuesday Factory Orders 1.2%
Wednesday ADP Employment 158K
  Trade Balance -$48.2B
  ISM Non-Manufacturing 55.1
Thursday Initial Claims 215K
  Unit Labor Costs 1.2%
  Nonfarm Productivity 1.6%
Friday Nonfarm Payrolls 160K
  Private Payrolls 150K
  Manufacturing Payrolls -4K
  Unemployment Rate 3.5%
  Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% (3.0% Y/Y)
  Average Weekly Hours 34.3
  Participation Rate 63.2%
  Consumer Credit $15.0B

Source: Bloomberg

Obviously, all eyes will be on the payrolls on Friday, although the ISM data will garner a great deal of attention as well. Last Friday’s core PCE data was right on the screws, so the Friday rate movement was all about coronavirus. With the FOMC meeting behind us, we get back to a number of Fed speakers, although this week only brings four. Something tells me there will be a lot of discussion regarding how they will respond to scenarios regarding China and the virus.

In the end, short term price action is going to be all about the virus and its perceived impact on the global economy. Any indication that the outbreak is slowing down will result in an immediate risk grab-a-thon. If it gets worse, look for havens to get bid up quickly.

Good luck
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A True Blue Pangloss

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Right now there’s a group of old men
(Though Europe has proffered a hen)
Who feel it’s their right
To hog the limelight
When talking pounds, dollars or yen

Here’s a thought for the conspiracy theorists amongst you. Do you think that the cabal of central bankers get annoyed when something other than their actions and words are responsible for moving markets? And so yesterday they determined it was Carney’s turn to make comments that would dominate the financial wires. I mean, war in the Middle East is completely out of the central bankers’ control, which means they have to be reactive in the event that market moves start to become uncomfortable (i.e. stock prices fall). When you are the leader of a G10 central bank, a key part of your role is to make sure that traders and investors jump at your every word (or so it seems) so if the investment community is worrying about something like war, the central bankers are just not very relevant. And they HATE that! While, of course, this is somewhat tongue in cheek, it is remarkable how quickly we hear from a major central banker after market activity that has been focused on non-monetary issues.

Mark Carney, the Old Lady’s boss
Explained, like a true blue Pangloss
That under the rules
They’d plenty of tools
To ease two percent at a toss

At any rate, arguably, as the relief rally continues, the biggest news overnight was a speech by BOE Governor Carney indicating that despite the fact that the base rate is currently set at 0.75%, the BOE has the capability, if necessary, to ease policy by an effective 250bps through rate cuts, more QE and forward guidance. Interestingly, if you read the speech, he doesn’t say that is what they are going to do, although two MPC members have voted for a rate cut already, he is merely responding to the critics who claim the central banks have no ammunition left to fight an eventual downturn in economic activity. Cable traders, however, must have heard the following: we are going to ease policy immediately, at least based on the fact that the pound is today’s worst performing currency, having fallen 0.65% as I type, and taking its decline thus far in 2020 to nearly 2.0%.

At the same time, the central bank cabal should be pleased because equity markets around the world are rallying aggressively, mostly on the idea that a war between the US and Iran is not imminent, and tangentially on the idea that the central banks remain adamant that they have plenty of ammunition left to keep easing monetary policy ad infinitum.

And that’s really the story, isn’t it? Markets remain almost completely beholden to central bank activity and central bank comments. As long as the prevailing view is that any decline in equity markets is an aberration and will be addressed immediately, we are going to see global equity markets rise. You cannot really fight that story. However, when it comes to the FX markets, there is slightly more opportunity for diversion amongst countries as each nation is likely to add differing amounts of stimulus, thus the relative value of one currency vs. another can react to those differences.

After all, looking at the UK, for example, the combination of the imminent Brexit deal and reduction in policy uncertainty as well as Carney’s comments that the BOE has plenty of room to ease has been more than sufficient to support the FTSE 100, which is higher by 0.6% this morning. And of course, part and parcel of that movement is the pound’s weakness. In fact, I believe this year is going to be all about relative policy ease, at least in the G10 space, with the Fed on track to ease more than any other nation via their not QE and repo programs. And that is why, as the year progresses, I continue to expect the dollar to decline. But so far this year, that has not been the narrative.

With this in mind, a look at the overnight price action shows that equity markets around the world have looked great (Nikkei +2.3%, Shanghai +0.9%, DAX +1.3%, CAC +0.45%) and haven assets have suffered (JPY -0.3%, -0.9% since Tuesday; gold -0.6%; and Treasuries +5bps since yesterday morning). A diminished chance of war and talk of easier policy have worked wonders for risk appetites. Can all this continue? As long as central banks keep playing the same tune they have for the past decade, there doesn’t seem to be any reason for it to stop.

Meanwhile, the dollar has generally been going gangbusters this year, up against all its G10 counterparts, although having a more mixed performance in the EMG space. In truth, US data so far has generally been beating expectations with yesterday’s ADP print of 202K (with a big revision higher for the previous month) the latest proof of that theory. Obviously, Friday’s payroll report will be carefully watched to see if job growth remains abundant, and perhaps more importantly, to see if wages continue to rise. So for the time being, it seems that the FX market is focused on the economic data, and the US data has generally been the best of the bunch, hence the dollar’s strength.

This morning, the only piece of data is Initial Claims (exp 220K) which during payroll week is generally ignored. This means that the dollar’s ongoing short term strength is likely to continue to manifest itself until we get a bad number, or we hear, more clearly, that the Fed is going to ease. I continue to believe that payables hedgers should be taking advantage of what, I believe, will be short term dollar strength. But there is a long way to go this year.

Good luck
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Up, Up and Away

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Said Powell, “We’re in a good place”
On growth, but we don’t like the pace
That prices are rising
And so we’re surmising
More QE’s what needs to take place

Today, then, we’ll hear from Christine
Who is now the ECB queen
This is her first chance
To proffer her stance
On policy and what’s foreseen

And finally, in the UK
The vote’s taking place through the day
If Boris does badly
Bears will sell pounds gladly
If not, it’s up, up and away

There is much to cover this morning, so let’s get right to it.

First the Fed. As universally expected they left rates on hold and expressed confidence that monetary policy was appropriate for the current conditions. They lauded themselves on the reduction in unemployment, but have clearly changed their views on just how low that number can go. Or perhaps, what they are recognizing is that the percentage of the eligible labor force that is actually at work, which forms the denominator in the unemployment rate, is too low, so that there is ample opportunity to encourage many who had left the workforce during the past decade to return thus increasing the amount of employment and likely helping the Unemployment Rate to edge even lower. While their forecasts continue to point to 3.5% as a bottom, private sector economists are now moving their view to the 3.0%-3.2% level as achievable.

On the inflation front, to say that they are unconcerned would greatly understate the case. They have made it abundantly clear that it will require a nearly unprecedented supply shock to have them consider raising rates anytime soon. However, they continue to kvetch about too low inflation and falling inflation expectations. They have moved toward a policy that will allow inflation to run higher than the “symmetric 2% target” for a while to make up for all the time spent below that level. And the implication is that if we see inflation start to trend lower at all, they will be quick to cut rates regardless of the economic growth and employment situation. Naturally, the fact that CPI printed a touch higher than expected (2.1%) was completely lost on them, but then given their ‘real-world blinders’ that is no real surprise. The dot plot indicated that they expect rates to remain on hold at the current level throughout all of 2020, which would be a first during a presidential election year.

And finally, regarding the ongoing concerns over the short term repo market and their current not-QE policy of buying $60 billion per month of Treasury bills, while Powell was unwilling to commit to a final solution, he did indicate that they could amend the policy to include purchases of longer term Treasury securities alongside the introduction of a standing repo facility. In other words, not-QE has the chance to look even more like QE than it currently does, regardless of what the Chairman says. Keep that in mind.

Next, it’s on to the ECB, which is meeting as I type, and will release its statement at 7:45 this morning followed by Madame Lagarde meeting the press at 8:30. It is clear there will be no policy changes, with rates remaining at -0.5% while QE continues at €20 billion per month. Arguably there are two questions to be answered here; what is happening with the sweeping policy review? And how will Madame Lagarde handle the press conference? Given she has exactly zero experience as a central banker, I think it is reasonable to assume that her press conferences will be much more political in nature than those of Signor Draghi and his predecessors. My fear is that she will stray from the topic at hand, monetary policy, and conflate it with her other, nonmonetary goals, which will only add confusion to the situation. That said, this is a learning process and I’m sure she will get ample feedback both internally and externally and eventually gain command of the situation. In the end, though, there is precious little the ECB can do at this point other than beg the Germans to spend some money while trying to fend off the hawks on the committee and maintain policy as it currently stands.

Turning to the UK election, the pound had been performing quite well as the market was clearly of the opinion that the Tories were going to win and that the Brexit uncertainty would finally end next month. However, the latest polls showed the Tory lead shrinking, and given the fragmentation in the electorate and the UK’s first-past-the-post voting process, it is entirely possible that the result is another hung Parliament which would be a disaster for the pound. The polls close at 5:00pm NY time (10:00pm local) and so it will be early evening before we hear the first indications of how things turn out. The upshot is a Tory majority is likely to see a further 1%-1.5% rally in the pound before it runs out of momentum. A hung Parliament could easily see us trade back down to 1.22 or so as all that market uncertainty returns, and a Labour victory would likely see an even larger decline as the combination of Brexit uncertainty and a program of renationalization of private assets would result in capital fleeing the UK ASAP. When we walk in tomorrow, all will be clear!

Clearly, those are the top stories today but there is still life elsewhere in the markets. Ffor example, the Turkish central bank cut rates more than expected, down to 12.0%, but the TRY managed to rally 0.25% after the fact. Things are clearly calming down there. In Asia, Indian inflation printed higher than expected at 5.54%, although IP there fell less than expected (-3.8%) and the currency impact netted to nil. The biggest gainer in the Far East was KRW, rising 0.65% after a strong performance by the KOSPI (+1.5%) and an analyst call for the KOSPI to rise 12% next year. But other than the won, the rest of the space saw much less movement, albeit generally gaining slightly after the Fed’s dovish stance.

In the G10, the pound has actually slipped a bit this morning, -0.2%, but otherwise, movement has been even smaller than that. Yesterday, after the Fed meeting, the dollar fell pretty sharply, upwards of 0.5% and essentially, the market has maintained those dollar losses this morning.

Looking ahead to the data today we see Initial Claims (exp 214K) and PPI (1.3%, 1.7% core). However, neither of those will have much impact. With the Fed meeting behind us, we will start to hear from its members again, but mercifully, not today. So Fed dovishness has been enough to encourage risk takers, and it looks for all the world like a modest risk-on session is what we have in store.

Good luck
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A Paean to John Maynard Keynes

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The positive vibe still remains
Encouraging stock market gains
Likewise bonds are sold
With dollars and gold
In paeans to John Maynard Keynes

As the market walks in ahead of today’s jobs report, once again poor data has been set aside and the equity bulls are leading the parade to acquire more risk assets. Stock markets are rallying, bond markets selling off and there is pressure on gold and the dollar. Granted, the moves have not been too large, but the reality is that the default market activity is to buy stocks regardless of valuation.

Let’s start with a quick look at current data expectations:

Nonfarm Payrolls 183K
Private Payrolls 179K
Manufacturing Payrolls 40K
Unemployment Rate 3.6%
Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% (3.0% Y/Y)
Average Weekly Hours 34.4
Michigan Sentiment 97.0

Source: Bloomberg

These are all pretty good numbers, and if the forecasts are right, it would certainly reinforce the idea that the US economy is ticking over nicely. Of course, the problem is that we have seen some pretty bad data in the past week which may call this evaluation into question. Recall Monday’s terrible ISM Manufacturing data, as well as Wednesday’s double whammy of ISM Non-Manufacturing and ADP Employment, both of which sharply disappointed. While yesterday’s Durable Goods was right on the mark, I would argue that based on the data seen this week, the US economy is clearly slowing down into the fourth quarter.

Adding to the general gloom is the data we have seen from elsewhere, notably Europe, where this morning’s German IP report (-1.7%) was the worst monthly print since April and took the year on year decline to -5.3%, the slowest pace since the financial crisis in 2009! Remember, Factory orders in Germany were awful yesterday, and the PMI data, while not as bad as expected regarding manufacturing, was much worse than expected in the service sector. The point is Europe is clearly not going to be driving the global economy higher anytime soon.

And of course, the other main engine of growth, China, has continued to present a picture of an economy in slow decline with excess leverage and financial bubbles still abundant, and with a central bank that is having trouble deciding which problem to address, excess leverage or slowing growth.

With this as a starting point, it is easy to see why there are so many bears in the market. But there is an antidote to this unrequited bearishness…the Fed! While Chairman Powell has repeatedly explained that the FOMC’s current practice of purchasing $60 billion per month of Treasury bills is NOT QE, it is certainly QE. And remember, the Fed is not just purchasing T-bills, they are also adding liquidity through overnight, weekly and monthly repo operations on a regular basis. In fact, they are taking all the collateral offered and lending money against it, not even targeting an amount they want to add. It certainly appears that they are simply adding as much liquidity to the markets as possible to prevent any of those bears from gaining traction. So in reality, it is no real surprise that risk assets remain in demand.

In fact, the Fed’s ongoing active stance in the money markets has me reconsidering my long-held views on the dollar’s future. The macroeconomic story remains, in my estimation, a USD positive, but one need only look at the dollar’s performance during QE1, QE2 and QE3 where we saw dollar declines of 22%, 25% and 16% respectively to force one to reconsider those views. ‘Not QE’ could easily undermine the dollar’s strength and perhaps, despite the ECB’s ongoing efforts, drive the dollar much lower. In conversations with many clients, I have been hard pressed to come up with a scenario where the dollar falls sharply, short of another shocking US electoral outcome where, as a nation we vote for left wing populism, à la Senator Warren or Senator Sanders, rather than our current stance of right wing populism. However, if the Fed maintains its current stance, expanding the balance sheet and adding liquidity with abandon to the money markets, there is every reason to believe that the dollar will suffer. After all, we continue to run a massive current account deficit, alongside our trade and budget deficits, and we are flooding the markets with newly issued Treasury debt. At some point, and perhaps in the not too distant future, the market may well decide the US dollar is no longer the haven asset that it has been in the past. In any case, while I consider the issues, it would be sensible, in my estimation, for hedgers to consider them as well.

And with that cheery thought, let us look forward to this morning’s market activity. My sense is that the combination of modestly higher than expected Initial Claims data during the survey week, as well as weak ISM employment sub-indices, and of course, the weak ADP number, will result in a disappointing outcome today. I fear that we could see something as low as 100K, which could see a knee-jerk reaction lower in the dollar as expectations ratchet up for more Fed monetary ease.

One other thing to keep in mind is that as we approach year-end, market liquidity starts to dry up. There should be no problems today, nor next week, I expect, but after that, trading desks see staffing thin out for vacations and risk appetite for the banks shrinks significantly. Nobody wants to risk a good year, and nobody will overcome a bad one in the last week of the year. So to the extent possible, I strongly recommend taking care of year end activity by the end of next week for the best results.

Good luck and good weekend
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No Longer Appealing

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Today pound bears seem to be feeling
That shorts are no longer appealing
The polls keep on showing
The Tory lead growing
Look for more complaining and squealing

As well, from the trade front we’ve heard
That progress has not been deterred
Some sources who know
Say Phase One’s a go
With rollbacks the latest watchword

Yesterday was so…yesterday. All of that angst over the trade deal falling apart after President Trump indicated that he was in no hurry to complete phase one has completely disappeared this morning after a story hit the tape citing ‘people familiar with the talks’. It seems that the president was merely riffing in front of the cameras, but the real work has been ongoing between Mnuchin, Lighthizer and Liu He, and that progress is being made. Naturally, the market response was to immediately buy back all the stocks sold yesterday and so this morning we see equity markets in Europe higher across the board (DAX +1.1%, CAC +1.3%) and US futures pointing higher as well (DJIA +0.5%, SPY +0.45%). Alas, that story hit the tape too late for Asia, which was still reeling from yesterday’s negative sentiment. Thus, the Nikkei (-1.1%), Hang Seng (-1.25%) and Shanghai (-0.25%) all suffered overnight.

At the same time, this morning has seen pound Sterling trade to its highest level since May as the latest polls continue to show the Tory lead running around twelve percentage points. Even with the UK’s first-past-the-poll electoral system, this is seen as sufficient to result in a solid majority in Parliament, and recall, every Tory candidate pledged to support the withdrawal agreement renegotiated by Boris. With this in mind, we are witnessing a steady short squeeze in the currency, where the CFTC statistics have shown the size of the short Sterling position has fallen by half in the past month. As a comparison, the last time short positions were reduced this much, the pound was trading at 1.32 which seems like a pretty fair target for the top. Quite frankly, this has all the earmarks of a buy the rumor (Tory victory next week) sell the news (when it actually happens) situation. In fact, I think the risk reward above 1.30 is decidedly in favor of a sharper decline rather than a much stronger rally. Again, for Sterling receivables hedgers, I think adding to positions during the next week will be seen as an excellent result.

Away from the pound, however, the dollar is probably stronger rather than weaker this morning. One of the reasons is that after the euro’s strong performance on Monday, there has been absolutely no follow-through in the market. Remember, that euro strength was built on the back of the dichotomy of slightly stronger than expected Eurozone PMI data, indicating stabilization on the Continent, as well as much weaker than expected US ISM data, indicating things here were not so great after all. Well, this morning we saw the other part of the PMI data, the Services indices, and across all of the Eurozone, the data was weaker than expected. This is a problem for the ECB because they are building their case for any chance of an eventual normalization of policy on the idea that the European consumer is going to support the economy even though manufacturing is in recession. If the consumer starts backing away, you can expect to see much less appealing data from the Eurozone, and the euro will be hard-pressed to rally any further. As I have maintained for quite a while, the big picture continues to favor the dollar vs. the rest of the G10 as the US remains the most robust economy in the world.

Elsewhere in the G10, Australia is today’s major underperformer as the day after the RBA left rates on hold and expressed less concern about global economic issues, they released weak PMI data, 49.7, and saw Q3 GDP print at a lower than expected 0.4%. The point here is that the RBA may be trying to delay the timing of their next rate cut, but unless China manages to turn itself around, you can be certain that the RBA will be cutting again early next year.

In the EMG bloc, the biggest loser was KRW overnight, falling 0.6% on yesterday’s trade worries. Remember, the positive story didn’t come out until after the Asian session ended. In fact, the won has been falling pretty sharply lately, down 3.5% in the past month and tracking quickly toward 1200. However, away from Korea, the EMG space is looking somewhat better in this morning’s risk-on environment with ZAR the big gainer, up 0.5%. What is interesting about this result is the South African PMI data printed at 48.6, nearly a point worse than expected. But hey, when risk is on, traders head for the highest yielders they can find.

Looking to this morning’s US session, we get two pieces of data starting with ADP Employment (exp 135K) at 8:15 and then ISM Non-Manufacturing at 10:00 (54.5). Quite frankly, both of these are important pieces of data in my mind as the former will be seen as a precursor to Friday’s NFP report and the latter will be scrutinized to determine if Monday’s ISM data was a fluke, or something for more concern. The ISM data will also offer a direct contrast to the weak Eurozone PMI data this morning, so a strong print is likely to see the euro head back toward 1.10.

And that’s really it today. Risk is back on, the pound is rolling and whatever you thought you knew from yesterday is ancient history.

Good luck
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A Future Quite Bright

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The data from China last night
Implied that growth might be all right
The PMI rose
And everyone knows
That points to a future quite bright!

Is it just me? Or does there seem to be something of a dichotomy when discussing the situation in China? This morning has a decidedly risk-on tone as equity markets in Asia (Nikkei +1.0%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Shanghai +0.15%) rallied after stronger than expected Chinese PMI data was released Friday night. For the record, the official Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2, its first print above 50.0 since April, while the non-Manufacturing version rose to 54.4, its highest print since March. Then, this morning the Caixin PMI data, which focuses on smaller companies, also printed a bit firmer than expected at 51.8. These data releases were sufficient to encourage traders and investors to scoop up stocks while they dumped bonds. After all, everything is just ducky now, right?

And yet…there are still two major issues outstanding that have no obvious short-term solution, both of which can easily deteriorate into a much worse situation overall. The first, of course, is the trade fiasco situation, where despite comments from both sides that progress has been made, there is no evidence that progress has been made. At least, there is no timeline for the completion of phase one and lately there has been no discussion of determining a location to sign said deal. Certainly it appears that the current risk profile in markets is highly dependent on a successful conclusion of these talks, at least as evidenced by the fact that every pronouncement of an impending deal results in a stock market rally.

The second issue is the ongoing uprising in Hong Kong. China has begun to use stronger language to condemn the process, and is extremely unhappy with the US for passing the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act last week. However, based on China’s response, we know two things: first that completing a trade deal is more important than words about Hong Kong. This was made clear when the “harsh” penalties imposed in the wake of the Act’s passage consisted of sanctions on US-based human rights groups that don’t operate in China and the prevention of US warships from docking in Hong Kong. While the latter may seem harsh, that has already been the case for the past several months. In other words, fears that the Chinese would link this law to the trade talks proved unfounded, which highlights the fact that the Chinese really need these talks to get completed.

The second thing we learned is that China remains highly unlikely to do anything more than complain about what is happening in Hong Kong as they recognize a more aggressive stance would result in much bigger international relationship problems. Of course, the ongoing riots in Hong Kong have really begun to damage the economy there. For example, Retail Sales last night printed at -24.3%! Not only was this worse than expected, but it was the lowest in history, essentially twice as large a decline as during the financial crisis. GDP there is forecast to fall by nearly 3.0% this year, and unless this is solved soon, it seems like 2020 isn’t going to get any better. But clearly, none of the troubles matter because, after all, PMI rose to 50.2!
Turning to Europe, PMI data also printed a hair better than expected, but the manufacturing sector remains in dire straits. Germany saw a rise to 44.1 while France printed at 51.7 and the Eurozone Composite at 46.9. All three were slightly higher than the flash data from last week, but all three still point to a manufacturing recession across the continent. And the biggest problem is that the jobs sub-indices were worse than expected. At the same time, Germany finds itself with a little political concern as the ruling coalition’s junior partner, the Social Democrats, just booted out their leadership and replaced it with a much more left wing team who are seeking changes in the coalition agreement. While there has been no call for a snap election, that probability just increased, and based on the most recent polls, there is no obvious government coalition with both the far left and far right continuing to gain votes at the expense of the current government. While this is not an immediate problem, it cannot bode well if Europe’s largest economy is moving toward internal political upheaval, which means it will pay far less attention to Eurozone wide issues. This news cannot be beneficial for the euro, although this morning’s 0.1% decline is hardly newsworthy.

Finally, with less than two weeks remaining before the British (and Scottish, Welch and Northern Irish) go to the polls, the Conservatives still hold between a 9 and 11 point lead, depending on which poll is considered, but that lead has been shrinking slightly. Pundits are quick to recall how Theresa May called an election in the wake of the initial Brexit vote when the polls showed the Tories with a large lead, but that she squandered that lead and wound up quite weakened as a result. At this point, it doesn’t appear that Boris has done the same thing, but stranger things have happened. At any rate, the FX market appears reasonably confident that the Tories will win, maintaining the pound above 1.29, although unwilling to give it more love until the votes are in. I expect that barring any very clear gaffes, the pound will range trade ahead of the election and in the event of a Tory victory, see a modest rally. If we have a PM Corbyn, though, be prepared for a pretty sharp decline.

Looking ahead to this week, we have a significant amount of US data, culminating in the payroll report on Friday:

Today ISM Manufacturing 49.2
  ISM Prices Paid 47.0
  Construction Spending 0.4%
Wednesday ADP Employment 140K
  ISM Non-Manufacturing 54.5
Thursday Initial Claims 215K
  Trade Balance -$48.6B
  Factory Orders 0.3%
  Durable Goods 0.6%
  -ex Transport 0.6%
Friday Nonfarm Payrolls 190K
  Private Payrolls 180K
  Manufacturing Payrolls 40K
  Unemployment Rate 3.6%
  Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% (3.0% Y/Y)
  Average Weekly Hours 34.4
  Michigan Sentiment 97.0

Source: Bloomberg

As we have seen elsewhere around the world, the manufacturing sector in the US remains under pressure, but the services sector remains pretty robust. But overall, if the data prints as expected, it is certainly evidence that the US economy remains in significantly better shape than that of most of the rest of the world. And it has been this big picture story that has underpinned the dollar’s strength overall. Meanwhile, with the Fed meeting next week, they are in their quiet period, so there will be no commentary regarding policy until the next statement and press conference. In fact, next week is set to be quite interesting with the FOMC, the UK election and then US tariffs slated to increase two weeks from yesterday.

And yet, despite what appear to be numerous challenges, risk remains the primary choice of investors. As such, equities are higher and bonds are selling off although the dollar remains stuck in the middle for now. We will need to get more news before determining which way things are likely to break for the buck in the near term.

Good luck
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The Final Throes

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Trump said that he now could disclose
Trade talks have reached “the final throes”
We soon will reveal
A fabulous deal
Designed to increase our trade flows

Imagine, for a moment, that you are the leader of the largest nation (by population) on earth and that you run the place with an iron grip. (Or at least you continue to imply to the outside world that is the case.) Imagine, also, that your only geopolitical rival, with far fewer people but far more money, has completely changed the ground rules regarding how business will be transacted going forward, totally upsetting intricately created supply chains that have been hugely profitable and beneficial to your country over the past two decades. And finally, imagine that for the past eighteen months, a series of unforeseen events (increasingly violent protests in a recalcitrant province, devastating epidemic of a virus decimating your nation’s protein supply, etc.) have combined with the rule changes to significantly slow your economy’s growth rate. (Remember, this growth rate is crucial to maintaining order in your nation.) What’s a despot leader to do?

It can be no real surprise that the US and China are moving closer to completing a phase one trade deal because the importance of completing said deal has grown on both sides of the table. We saw evidence of this earlier in the week when the Chinese changed their tune on IP theft; an issue they had previously maintained did not exist, but are now willing to codify as criminal. And with every lousy piece of Chinese data (last night Industrial Profits fell 9.9%, their largest decline since 2011 and further evidence of the slowing growth trajectory on the mainland) the pressure on President Xi increases to do something to arrest the decline. Meanwhile, though the US economy seems to be ticking along reasonably well (at least according to every Fed speaker and as evidenced by daily record high closings in the US equity markets) the other issues in Washington are pushing on President Trump to make a deal and score a big win politically.

With this as a backdrop, I expect that we will continue to hear positive comments regarding the trade deal from both sides and that prior to the December 15 imposition of new tariffs by the US, we will have something more concrete, including a timetable to sign the deal. And so, there is every reason to believe that risk appetite will continue to be whetted and that equity markets will continue to perform well through the rest of 2019 and arguably into the beginning of 2020.

It is easy to list all the concerns that exist for an investor as they are manifest everywhere. Consider: excess corporate leverage, a global manufacturing recession, anemic global growth, $14 trillion of negative yielding debt globally, and, of course, the still unresolved US-China trade issues and crumbling of seventy years of globalization infrastructure. And that doesn’t even touch on the non-financial, but still economic issues of wealth and income inequality and the growing number of protests around the world by those on the bottom rungs of the economic ladder (Chile, Colombia, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Lebanon, and even Hong Kong and France’s gilets jaunes). And yet, risk appetite remains strong.

The point I am trying to make is that there is quite a dichotomy between financial market, specifically equity market, behavior and the economic and political situation around the world. The question I would ask is; how long can this dichotomy be maintained? Every bear’s fear is that there will be some minor catalyst that has an extremely outsized impact on risk pricing causing a significant decline. Bears constantly point to all those things mentioned above, and more, and are firm in their collective belief that the central bank community, which may be the only thing holding risk asset prices higher, is running out of ammunition. Certainly I agree with the latter point, they are running out of ammunition, but as Lord John Maynard Keynes was reputed to have said, “Markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.”

As of right now, there is no evidence that any of the above mentioned issues are relevant to market pricing decisions. So what is relevant? Based on the almost complete lack of price movement in the FX market for the past several sessions, I would say nothing is relevant. Every day we walk in and the euro or the yen or the pound or the renminbi is within a few basis points of the previous day’s levels. Trading appetite has diminished and implied volatility continues to track to new lows almost daily. In fact, especially for those hedgers who are paying significantly to manage balance sheet risks, it almost seems like it is not worth the money to continue doing so. But I assure you that it is worth the cost. This is not the first time we have seen an extended period of market malaise in FX (2007-8 and 2014 come to mind) and in both those cases we saw a significant rebound in activity in the wake of a surprising catalyst (financial crisis, oil market crash). Do not be caught out when the current market attitude changes.

With that, rather long-winded, opening, a look at markets today shows that every G10 currency is within 15bps of yesterday’s closing levels. And those levels were similarly close to the previous day’s levels. There has been a distinct lack of data, and really very little commentary by central bank officials. Even in the emerging markets, activity generally remains muted. I will grant that the Chilean peso (-0.6%) has been a dog lately, but that is entirely related to the ongoing protests in that country and the fact that investors are exiting rapidly. But elsewhere, movement remains less than 0.3% except for in South Africa, where the rand has actually gained 0.5% as demand increases for their bond issuance today. In a world where a third of sovereign debt carries negative interest rates, 8% and 9% coupons are incredibly attractive!

On the data front, with Thanksgiving tomorrow, we see a ton of stuff today:

Initial Claims 221K
Q2 GDP 1.9%
Durable Goods -0.9%
-ex Transport 0.1%
Chicago PMI 47.0
Personal Income 0.3%
Personal Spending 0.3%
Core PCE 0.1% (1.7% Y/Y)
Fed’s Beige Book  

We should certainly learn if the growth trajectory in the US remains solid before the morning is over, and I expect that the dollar may respond accordingly, with strong data supporting the greenback and vice versa. But the thing is, given the holiday tomorrow, liquidity will be somewhat impaired, especially this afternoon. So if you still have things that you need to get done in November, I cannot stress strongly enough that executing early today is in your best interest.

Overall, the dollar continues to hold its own despite the risk-on attitude, but I have a feeling that is because we are seeing international investors buy dollars to buy US equities. At this point, there is no reason to believe that process will change, so I like the dollar to continue to edge higher over time.

Good luck and have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday
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Quite a Breakthrough

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Is stealing IP now taboo?
If so that is quite a breakthrough
Now maybe Phase One
Can finally be done
Or is this just more déjà vu?

Tell me if you’ve heard this one before; a phase one trade deal is really close! For the umpteenth time in the past six months, this is the story driving markets this morning, although, in fairness, today’s version may have a bit more substance to it. That substance comes from an announcement by China that they are going to institute penalties on IP theft and potentially lower the threshold for considering criminal punishments for those convicted of the crime. This, of course, has been one of the key US demands in the negotiations thus far and the fact that the Chinese have conceded the argument is actually quite a big deal. Recall, if you will, that when this entire process started, the Chinese wouldn’t even admit that the practice was ongoing. Now they are considering enshrining the criminality of these actions into law. That is a huge change. Perhaps the current US stance in the negotiations is beginning to bear fruit.

Given this positive turn in the discussions, it should be no surprise that risk assets are in demand today and we are seeing equity markets rally around the world. Overnight in Asia, we saw strength across the board (Nikkei +0.8%, Hang Seng +1.5%, Shanghai +0.7%) and we are seeing solid gains in Europe as well (DAX +0.4%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.8%). The two outliers, Hong Kong and London have additional positive stories to boot. In Hong Kong the weekend’s local council elections resulted in the highest turnout in years and not surprisingly, given the ongoing protests for democracy, the pro-democracy candidates won 85% of the seats. HK Chief Executive Carrie Lam was quick to respond by explaining the government will listen carefully to the public on this issue. One other aspect of the elections was that they were completely peaceful, with no violence anywhere in the city this weekend, a significant difference to recent activity there, and that was also seen as a risk positive outcome.

Meanwhile, in the UK, PM Boris Johnson released his election manifesto and it was far more sensible than his predecessor’s attempt three years ago. While it included spending promises on infrastructure and increased hiring of nurses for the National Health Service, there were few other spending categories. Of course, he did remind everyone that a Tory majority will allow him to deliver Brexit by January 31 and he assured that the trade deal would be complete by the end of 2020. The latest polls show that the Tories lead 42% to 30% for Labour with the rest still split amongst minor players. Also, a Datapraxis study shows that on current form, the Tories will win 349 of the 650 seats in Parliament, a solid majority that will allow Boris to implement his policies handily. Given this news less than three weeks from the election, investors and traders are becoming increasingly bullish on the outcome and the pound has benefitted accordingly this morning, rising 0.3%. Now, it is still well below the levels seen last month, when it briefly peeked over 1.30 in the euphoria that Boris was going to get Brexit done by October 31. But, it is today’s clear winner in the G10 space.

Away from the pound, the rest of the G10 space has been quite dull, with the euro slipping a scant 0.1% after German IFO data showed that while the economy may not be getting worse, it is not yet getting much better. In keeping with the equity driven risk-on theme, the yen is softer this morning as well, -0.2%, but that is entirely risk related.

Turning to the EMG space, there has been a touch more activity but still nothing remarkable. On the positive side we see CLP rising 0.7% which has all the earmarks of a position consolidation after a very troubled couple of weeks. There has been no specific news although a background story has been focused on shifts in the local pension scheme. It seems there are five funds, labeled A through E with A the most aggressive, invested 60% in international equities, while E is the most conservative, investing 92% in local fixed income assets. It seems that in the wake of the protests, there was a substantial shift into the A fund, which has outperformed given the peso’s weakness. However, it now appears that local investment advisors are highlighting the benefits of the E fund which will result in CLP purchases and corresponding CLP strength. This is certainly consistent with the idea that risk is back in vogue so perhaps we have seen the worst in CLP. But otherwise, nothing much of interest here either.

During this holiday shortened week, we actually get a decent amount of data with most of it released Wednesday morning.

Tuesday Case Shiller Home Prices 3.30%
  New Home Sales 707K
  Consumer Confidence 127.0
Wednesday Initial Claims 221K
  Q3 GDP 1.9%
  Durable Goods -0.8%
  -ex Transport 0.1%
  Chicago PMI 46.9
  Personal Income 0.3%
  Personal Spending 0.3%
  Core PCE 0.1% (1.7% Y/Y)
  Fed’s Beige Book  

Source: Bloomberg

In addition to this, where my sense is the market will be most focused on the Personal Income and Spending data, we hear from Chairman Powell later this evening. While it is always an event when a Fed chair speaks, it seems pretty unlikely that we are going to learn anything new here. At this stage, it has been made quite clear that the Fed is on hold for the foreseeable future. If that is not the message, then you can look for market fireworks.

So the session today is shaping up to be risk focused which means that away from the yen and maybe Swiss franc, I expect the dollar to be softer rather than firmer.

Good luck
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Centrists’ Dismay

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In three weeks and some the UK
Will head to the polls and convey
To markets worldwide
If Brexit’s the side
They favor, to centrists’ dismay

In London today, and all week actually, the Confederation of British Industry is having their annual conference. As such, both Boris and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will be addressing the largest UK trade association to describe their views of the future based on an electoral victory on December 12. In brief, Boris is promising certainty with regard to Brexit as well as some tax cuts and spending on goodies. Meanwhile, Corbyn is promising to nationalize certain industries (British Telecom to give “free” high speed internet access to everyone in the country and the National Energy Grid to force more green activity and decisions) in order to achieve his party’s goal of poverty equality for all.

However, the weekend’s polls show that Boris is expanding his lead with the average result now showing the Tories with 42%, Labour with 30%, the LibDems at 14% and the rest of the assorted parties making up the balance. Arguably, the biggest weekend news was that every Tory running for a seat has signed a pledge to support the Brexit deal if elected. In essence, the Tories are leading and projected to get a majority, and they have pledged to complete Brexit. The market response has been pretty positive, at least the FX market, with the pound rallying a further 0.5% this morning after having rallied 1.0% last week. In fact, at 1.2950, we are pushing back to the highs seen in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit deal changes. As I have maintained since the election was called, I expect Boris to win and Brexit to go ahead shortly thereafter. At this point, it certainly seems like the UK will be out of the EU by the current January 31 deadline. As to the pound, I think we can see a move to 1.32-1.34, but probably not much more at this point. We will need to see significant progress on the ensuing trade agreement with the EU to see much further strength.

Other weekend news of note showed that the PBOC cut its seven-day repo rate by 5bps, to 2.50%, which despite the tiny movement cheered both traders and investors. Later this week, they will reveal the 1-year Loan Prime Rate, which is their new benchmark interest rate, and anticipation has grown they will be reducing that as well. The lesson here is that managing inflation, which has been rising rapidly due to the explosive growth in food, notably pork, prices, is a secondary concern. Instead, due to the fact that the economy is slowing even more rapidly, as evidenced by last week’s terrible Retail Sales and IP numbers, the PBOC’s marching orders are clearly to support GDP growth. Remember, despite the fact that President Xi is president for life, if GDP growth slows and unemployment rises, he will have some serious problems. In fact, it is this situation which has most pundits certain that a trade deal with the US will get signed. Both presidents need a win, and this is a relatively easy one for both.

Speaking of the trade deal, there was a high-level conversation over the weekend, between Liu He and the tag team of Mnuchin and Lighthizer, and both sides indicated progress continues to be made. That said, there is no indication that an agreement on where the presidents will meet to sign a deal has been reached, let alone an actual agreement on the deal. So, much remains to be done before this process is finished, but I am confident that we will read a string of positive tweets on a regular basis beforehand. Meanwhile, the PBOC’s modest rate cut had only a minor impact on the renminbi, which continues to trade just below (dollar above) the 7.00 level. Until a deal is finalized, it is hard to make a case for a large movement.

One last noteworthy item is from South Africa, where S&P has changed its outlook to negative from neutral. This is often a precursor for a ratings cut, and given S&P already has the country firmly in junk territory, at BB, Moody’s decision to maintain its investment grade rating last month seems more and more out of place. The rand is under pressure this morning, down 0.4%, although it remains closer to the top of its recent trading range than the bottom. What that means is there is ample opportunity for the rand to decline more sharply if there is any hint that Moody’s is going to move. The problem for South Africa is that if Moody’s changes them to junk, the nation’s debt will fall out of the MSCI global bond index and there could be as much as $15 billion of net sales. The rand would not receive that warmly, and a quick move back to the 15.50 level is to be expected in that case.

And those are the big stories this morning. Generally, I would characterize the markets as in a modest risk-on mode, with the dollar slightly softer, the yen and Swiss franc as well, while Treasury yields have edged higher and equity markets have edged higher as well. But, overall, it is pretty dull.

Looking ahead to the data releases this week, there is nothing of major consequence with Housing the focus:

Tuesday Housing Starts 1320K
  Building Permits 1381K
Wednesday FOMC Minutes  
Thursday Philly Fed 6.0
  Initial Claims 218K
  Leading Indicators -0.2%
  Existing Home Sales 5.49M
Friday Michigan Sentiment 95.7

While we do see the Minutes on Wednesday, given the onslaught of Fed speakers and consistency of message we have received since the last meeting, it seems hard to believe that we will learn anything new. One thing to watch closely is the Initial Claims data, which last week printed at 225K, higher than expected and where another higher than expected print could easily kick off a narrative of slowing employment, something that has much larger implications. There are a few Fed speakers, with uber-hawk Loretta Mester regaling us twice this week, although, again, it seems we have already heard everything there is to hear.

So today is shaping up to be quiet, with the modest risk-on behavior likely to continue to soften the dollar. We will need something bigger (e.g. a successful trade deal confirmed by both sides) in order to shake things up in my view.

Good luck
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Most Concerning

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While cities worldwide keep on burning
The news for which markets are yearning
Revolves around trade
Is phase one delayed?
If so, that would be most concerning

This morning it seems that everything is right with the world, at least based on market behavior. After all, equity markets are rallying, Treasury yields are rising and haven currencies are falling, the perfect description of a risk-on day. And what has everyone so optimistic this morning? Why, for the umpteenth time, the White House has indicated that the US and China are close to signing that elusive phase one trade deal. By all accounts, this deal is basically a swap of Chinese promises to purchase more agricultural products from the US, allegedly upwards of $50 billion worth, while the US will roll back the tariffs most recently put in place and will not impose new ones come December 15th. And don’t get me wrong, that would be great if it helped relieve some uncertainty in both markets and business planning. But I would conservatively estimate that this is the tenth time that optimism on a trade deal has led to increased risk appetite in the past three months, and we still don’t have a deal in place. My point is we’ve seen this movie before and we know how it ends…no deal and the opportunity to see it yet again in another few weeks’ time. I challenge anyone to show me evidence that this time is different!

And yet, it continues to be effective insofar as these constant announcements have helped maintain optimism in the market. The biggest risk is that the next story describes a complete breakdown in the trade talks and the chance of a deal, even a phase one deal, being completed disappears. Risk assets would not take that lightly. But another risk is that the deal is signed, and it is as modest as it appears to be. While that would be good news initially, it would remove one of the key market supports, the prospect of that deal. I fear we would see a classic sell the news outcome in that event as well. Something to keep in mind.

Meanwhile, the world is literally burning; at least a great number of large cities are besieged by mass protests with fire a constant result. Perhaps the best known situation is in Hong Kong, where things have gone from bad to worse, the protesters’ demands are being studiously ignored and the threat of China intervening directly grows by the day. Hong Kong’s economy has been severely impacted, falling into a recession in Q3, and the official forecast for GDP growth next year is now -1.3% by the Hong Kong government.

But Hong Kong is hardly alone. Santiago, Chile has been the sight of major demonstrations, with estimates of more than one million people turning out recently. That is more than 5% of the population! In the past week, in the wake of the news that the government wanted to scrap the current constitution and write a new one, the currency collapsed 12% and the local equity market fell 6%, taking its losses since mid-October to 15%. But this morning things are looking up there as Congress has come to an agreement on how to go about this process, with the evidence leaning toward a constitutional convention that will include many voices. When the FX market opened this morning, the CLP rebounded 2.5%. Of all the protests ongoing around the world, this may be the first where a solution is being created.

These two are just the most well-known situations, but the gilets jaunes continue to protest in France more than a full year after they started. And a quick survey shows ongoing protests, a number of which are quite large and disruptive, in Peru, Indonesia, Lebanon, the Netherlands, Haiti and Israel. The point is there are a lot of very unhappy people in the world, and much of their collective angst seems to be driven by a sense of inherent unfairness in the way those (and most) countries’ are run. This is a background issue generally, but as can be seen on a daily basis in the US and the UK, these issues can have much broader impacts on economies as a whole. After all, one could argue that both the Brexit vote and the election of President Trump were protest votes as well. And certainly, the US-China trade war is a consequence of those outcomes. My point is that while most of these things may not have a daily impact, they are important to recognize as part of the fabric of the market background.

Turning to today’s markets, though, as I mentioned, rose-colored glasses are the order of the day. Equity markets are generally higher gains in Asia (Nikkei +0.7%, Australia +0.85% and South Korea +1.05%) although Shanghai actually fell 0.65% after the PBOC did not cut rates as many had hoped/expected in the wake of yesterday’s very weak data outturn. European indices are also generally doing well this morning (DAX +0.2%, CAC +0.4%) although the FTSE 100 in the UK is having a rough go, down 0.4%, because of a sharp decline in British Telecom which has fallen 2% after Jeremy Corbyn promised to nationalize the company and give everyone in the UK free broadband access. It is remarkable what politicians will say in an effort to get elected!

Bond markets have fared less well as risk has been acquired since havens are no longer needed. So Treasury yields have bounced 3bps with Bunds following suit. And in the FX market, haven currencies are also under pressure. Overall, the dollar is softer, as is the yen, which has fallen 0.3% and the Swiss franc, which has fallen 0.25%. On the positive side in G10 is NOK, which has rallied 0.65% after a stronger than expected Trade Balance helped burnish optimism that GDP growth would maintain its recent solid performance and the Norgesbank would not need to join most other central banks and ease policy. In the emerging markets, aside from CLP mentioned above, we have seen broad-based, but modest strength across most of the rest of the space, with no real stories to note.

Yesterday we heard from a whole bunch of Fed speakers and to a wo(man) they explained that the economy was in good shape (the star performer according to Powell) and that there was no need to adjust policy at this time. Data yesterday showed that Initial Claims jumped more than expected, to 225K, which is not concerning if it is a one-time situation, but needs to be carefully monitored as a precursor to a deterioration in the labor market.

This morning we see Empire Manufacturing (exp 6.0), Retail Sales (0.2%, ex autos 0.4%), IP (-0.4%) and Capacity Utilization (77.0%). All eyes will be on the Retail Sales data as last month’s surprising decline has some on edge that the US economy is starting to show some cracks. But assuming an in-line outcome, I expect the dollar to soften modestly through the rest of the day as risk is accumulated further.

Good luck and good weekend
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