Author Archives: fxpoet

A Pitiful Claim

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Said Jay, we’ve “a long way to go”
Ere driving inflation too low
Employment’s still tight
But we’ll get it right
Or not… it’s too early to know

His colleagues, though, aren’t in sync
As some of them seemingly think
They’ve tightened enough
And now would rebuff
The call for more Kool-Aid to drink

Lots to touch on this morning between Powell’s testimony yesterday along with other Fed speakers and then a raft of central bank meetings with rate hikes across the board.

 

Starting with the Fed, Powell tried to be very clear that his expectation, and that of the bulk of the FOMC, is interest rates have further to rise.  While they chose to skip a hike last week, they are under no illusion that they have beaten inflation.  Instead, Powell was very clear in his comments that they “have a long way to go” before they have finished the job with inflation.  Of course, yesterday I laid out a theme of why their medicine for inflation is not likely to be that effective, but that is not a conversation that Powell, or any FOMC member, is likely to entertain.

 

However, despite Powell’s insistence that there are likely two more 25bp rate hikes in the offing, we are finally beginning to hear some dissent from the rest of the committee.  Yesterday both Raphael Bostic from Atlanta and Austin Goolsbee from Chicago were clear that a pause at the current level made the most sense and they would support that outcome.  While Governor Christopher Waller remains on board with further rate hikes, Bostic is not a voter (Goolsbee is) so I expect that the July meeting will have a lot of discussion.

 

Interestingly, the market reaction was different in different markets, with the equity markets hearing Powell and accepting his words at face value thus selling off, while the FX market seems more suspect, with the dollar failing to gain after his comments.  In fact, the euro has traded back above 1.10 this morning for the first time in more than a month.  As to the Treasury market, yields are pushing higher again, with 10yr yields up by 1.5bps this morning, but the real movement has been in the 2yr which has seen the curve inversion push back to -99bps.  Bond investors seem to believe Powell.

In Europe, though, things ain’t the same
As central banks still try to blame
Their failure to slow
Inflation and grow
On Russia, a pitiful claim

In the meantime, three central banks met today in Europe and all three hiked rates, with two, Norway and the UK, hiking by 50bps and Switzerland hiking just 25bps.  The 50bp hikes were more than expected and indicative of the fact that both nations, and in truth the entire continent, remain far behind the curve in their respective inflation fights.  Alas, for these nations, too, I fear they are not using the best tool to address the issue as all were guilty of excessive fiscal stimulus and all face worse demographic trends than the US, so are unlikely to get the desired response from rate hikes. 

 

It should be no surprise that both the pound and krone have rallied sharply on the day, with NOK higher by 1.3% and the best performing currency in the world, as investors and traders are concluding that these central banks are going to keep at it until such time as inflation finally does slow down.  The pound reacted immediately, with a quick 0.5% pop, although it is since retraced those gains and is only slightly higher on the day now. 

 

What should we make of all this central bank activity?  While there are a growing number of analysts and economists who continue to believe that inflation is due to decline sharply over the summer, apparently none of them work in any central bank.  The relative amount of tightness from one bank to another may vary slightly, but other than the BOJ, which is completely uninterested in adjusting its policy anytime soon, it is very easy to believe that interest rates have higher to go from here.  Plan accordingly.

 

So, what have these comments and actions wrought in markets?  Well, my entire equity market screen is red this morning with Japan and China both sharply lower as well as every major index in Europe falling by at least -1.0%.  US futures are also in the red after a weak session yesterday, and it is very easy to believe that we are due a correction, if nothing else, given the remarkable run up we have seen lately.

 

Bond yields, as mentioned above, are generally higher, although 10yr Gilts are bucking the trend, falling 3bps in the wake of the BOE action as investors are hopeful they are truly going to be able to halt the inflationary spiral.  As with most other things, JGB’s are not following suit and in fact, with the 10yr yield back down to 0.367%, virtually all discussion of the end of YCC has vanished.  Ueda-san is one lucky guy.

 

On the other hand, oil (-2.1%) is under pressure this morning as the idea of higher interest rates slowing economic growth continues to pervade the market.  Perhaps more surprisingly, both copper and aluminum have rallied a bit and are holding onto their gains in the face of higher rates.  Ultimately, copper especially, is a resource that is in short supply for all the grandiose electrification plans that are bandied about by politicians worldwide, and so I expect, just like oil, there is a structural deficit and it should trade higher.  I am simply surprised it is doing so in the current environment.

 

Finally, the dollar is mixed this morning, as after the NOK, the rest of the G10 is +/- 0.2% from yesterday’s closing levels, hardly enough to discuss.  In the emerging markets, the biggest mover is TRY (-2.3%) after the central bank disappointed by only raising rates from 8.50% to 15.0%!  With a new central bank chief, the market was expecting a move to 20.0%, which would still be far below the current level of CPI there, which at last reading was 39.6%.  But away from that, the dollar is mixed with no outliers in either direction.

 

Today we do get a lot of data as follows: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (exp -0.10); Initial Claims (259K); Continuing Claims (1785K); Existing Home Sales (4.25M); Leading Indicators (-0.8%) and KC Fed Manufacturing Index (-5).  Chair Powell also speaks to the Senate Banking Committee today, but I doubt much new will come from that.  Look at the Initial Claims data, which is the best real time indicator of the employment situation as any jump there will likely get tongues wagging about the end of the Fed rate hikes.

 

Right now, investors are a bit nervous about just how hawkish the Fed is going to ultimately be, so my take is we will see caution, meaning profit taking and a modest correction in risk assets, until such time as participants are all convinced that the pivot is coming.  The fact that a pivot means the economy is distressed does not seem to matter right now. As to the dollar, it will have a hard time as long as traders question the Fed’s conviction while other central banks raise rates.  So, while the yen and renminbi should be the worst performers, the G10 is likely to outperform the buck for now.

 

Good luck

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4% is the New 2%

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The Kingdom that’s sort of United
Reported inflation’s ignited
And simply won’t fall
Regardless of all
The rate hikes that they’ve expedited

But of more importance today
Is hearing what Jay has to say
He’ll speak to the House
Whose members will grouse
Though their views will not hold much sway

Starting with the first big data point, CPI in the UK was higher than expected yet again, printing at 8.7%, unchanged from April’s reading and above the 8.4% consensus expectation.  Core CPI actually rose further, to 7.1%, a new high reading for the current bout of inflation and an indication that thus far, the BOE has not been very effective in fighting inflation.  The market response was mostly in line with what one would expect as the equity market sold off alongside Gilts as yields climbed further.  In fact, 2yr Gilt yields are now above 5.0% for the first time since 2008 and the UK yield curve is also steeply inverted, albeit not as steeply as the US curve.  As well, the OIS market is now pricing a one-third probability of a 50bp rate hike by the BOE when they meet tomorrow.  But weirdly, the pound is under pressure this morning.  It is the worst performing G10 currency (-0.4%) and unlike most recent market reactions, where higher interest rates lead to currency strength, it has a throwback feel to your old International Finance textbooks where higher inflation leads to currency weakness.

 

Arguably, the biggest problem that Governor Bailey has right now is that it doesn’t seem to matter what the BOE does, prices are continuing to rise.  My sense is that interest rate hikes may not be the right medicine for the UK’s current ailments (which could well be true in the US) as the genesis of this inflation is not excessive economic growth driving demand but rather fiscal policy profligacy driving demand.  If it is the latter, then higher interest rates may only exacerbate the inflation situation as the increased cost of debt service simply adds to the growing budget deficit which increases the amount of money available for people to spend.  Consider, if one owns 2yr Gilts yielding 5%, the amount of income available to that person/entity is far greater than when 2yr Gilts were yielding 1% two years ago and so there is more money to spend.  Just like in the US, the employment situation in the UK remains tight and wages are rising along with interest rates.  In other words, there is a lot more money floating around chasing goods, a pretty surefire recipe for increasing inflation.  Alas, this idea doesn’t fit well within the Keynesian dogma so I fear things will take a long time to recover in the UK.

 

Turning to the US, this morning we will hear from Chairman Powell for the first time since the FOMC meeting a week ago as he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.  While it is always difficult to anticipate what types of questions people like Representative Maxine Waters (who thankfully no longer chairs this committee) will ask, I expect that there will be a lot of discussion regarding whether the Fed should continue tightening policy in the face of recent softer, albeit still high, inflation readings, and what is being done about issues like bank safety and oversight.  I am also quite confident that there will be questions/demands for the Fed to do something about climate change although Chairman Powell has already made clear it is not in their mandate.

 

However, ex ante, trying to assess what Powell is likely to say, I would estimate he will continue with the current Fed mantra of inflation remains far too high and that they are going to bring the rate of inflation back to their 2% target.  He is also likely to admit that doing so will cause pain via rising unemployment, something no Congressman/woman is going to want to hear.  But just like in the UK as explained above, it is entirely possible that the Fed’s reading of the current situation may not be accurate.  The playbook, as written by Paul Volcker, explains that the way to squash inflation is to raise interest rates high enough to cause a recession, kill demand and watch price increases end.  And that worked well in 1980-1982 as the US was dealing with both rising commodity prices as well as a demographic boom as Baby Boomers were entering the workforce along with women and there was a significant uptick in activity and productivity. 

 

The problem for Powell, who came of age during that period, is that is not very descriptive of today’s economy.  Instead, we have just come through a massive fiscal policy spend on the back of the pandemic response (similar to the end of a war) but the demographics are far less impactful as population is growing far more slowly and the working population is growing even slower.  Higher interest rates have increased the income for retirees and allowed them to increase demand as they spend that newfound money.  I’m not saying that cutting rates is the right path, just that raising them a lot more may not be very effective either.  Fiscal discipline would be a far more effective tool to fight inflation in the current environment I believe.  Alas, that is something that simply no longer exists.  As such, I fear that we are going to see inflation remain much higher than we had become used to for a much longer time.  I expect 4% is the new 2%.

 

At any rate, ahead of the Powell comments, which begin at 10:00am, this is what we’ve seen overnight.  Japanese equities continue to rock, rising again and now up nearly 29% YTD in yen terms.  The Nikkei has reached its highest level since December 1989, although has not yet passed the peak set in September of that year.  However, Chinese equities are on a completely different trajectory right now, with both the Hang Seng and mainland indices down on the year.  It seems investors are not enamored of President Xi’s economic leadership right now.  As to Europe, it is mostly softer, albeit not by much and US futures are similarly down slightly ahead of the opening.

 

Bond yields are edging higher outside of the UK with Treasuries back up 3bps and most of the continent up around 1bp.  Looking at Treasury activity lately, it has been choppy but not trending either higher or lower and sits in the middle of the 3.50% – 4.0% range that has defined trading since September.

 

Oil prices are little changed this morning and are also hanging about in a range lately as the market tries to determine the supply/demand function.  Is China growing enough to increase demand substantially?  How much oil is Iran getting into the market?  These are the questions that have no clear answers so visibility into trends is limited.  Meanwhile, gold got clobbered yesterday on dollar strength and the base metals had a similar response.

 

Finally, the dollar remains stronger rather than weaker overall, rallying yesterday against most of its counterparts and holding the bulk of those gains.  Today’s outlier is KRW (-0.9%) which suffered after the release of its export data showed a 12.5% decline of exports to China.  In truth, this bodes ill for both currencies, the won and the renminbi, which saw the offshore version trade through 7.20 last night for the first time in this move.  As I have written before, this has further to go.

 

There is no data today so basically, all eyes will be on the tape at 10:00 to hear what Powell has to say and how he responds to the questions.  For now, the market is losing conviction that another rate hike is coming, although there is no indication from Fed speakers that they have changed their view.  Next week, we will see the PCE data, and I suspect much will depend on how that prints before any new views can be expressed.  In the meantime, the dollar is caught between a sense of risk-off and a sense the Fed may be done.  Choppy is the name of the game.

 

Good luck

Adf

 

Policy Lies

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In China Xi’s growing concerned
That growth there will not have returned
Ere folks recognize
His policy lies
And seek changes for which they’ve yearned

So, last night they cut interest rates
While hoping it’s this that creates
The growth that is needed
So, Xi’s unimpeded
In ending all future debates

It has been another relatively dull session in markets as we are well and truly amid the summer doldrums despite solstice not arriving until tomorrow.  After an action-packed week with numerous central bank meetings as well as key inflation readings, this week is looking a lot less interesting.  From a market perspective, the most noteworthy news from overnight was the reduction in the Loan Prime Rate in China by 10 basis points, matching what we saw in their repo rates last week.  This is a very clear signal that there is a growing concern at the top in China regarding the growth trajectory of the country. 

 

Perhaps the most interesting part of this situation is the reversal of previous policy attempts to reduce property speculation with the latest message encouraging people to buy a second home!  It was only a few years ago when China, having massively leveraged its economy to generate their much vaunted 6% growth rate, realized that too much debt could turn into a problem.  This led to a policy change that discouraged property investment and ultimately led to the decimation of the property sector.  China Evergrande was the first major problem revealed, but there have been numerous other companies whose business model collapsed along with many people’s life savings. 

 

However, lately that story has been just background noise and represented just one of the many industries that the Xi government helped undermine.  You may recall the education (tutoring) companies that were turned into non-profits overnight, and the fight against the large tech companies like Alibaba and TenCent, which were deemed to be getting too powerful.  But a funny thing about a state-controlled economy is that business decisions made by government actors are typically abysmal and lead to further problems.  So, when the government decided that property speculation was bad, they cracked down hard.  But now that they are figuring out that much of the country’s wealth was tied up in the market they cracked down on, and that people reduced their economic activity accordingly, they realize that perhaps things were better with that speculation, at least politically.  Hence the reversal where the government is now encouraging that purchase of a second home.  You can’t make this stuff up.

 

At any rate, the one thing that is very clear is that the Chinese economy is continuing to drag and that the most natural outlet remains the renminbi, which weakened further last night (-0.3%) and continues to push toward the renminbi lows (dollar highs) seen in November 2022.  Given inflation remains extremely low there and given that the only model that the Chinese really know, the mercantilist export driven process, benefits from a weaker CNY, I would look for this trend to continue for quite a while going forward.

 

Otherwise, last night saw the release of the RBA Minutes which indicated that the surprise rate hike of a couple weeks ago was a much more closely debated outcome than previously thought.  This has led traders to downgrade their assessment of a rate hike next month and Aussie (-0.9%) fell accordingly.

 

Beyond those stories, though, there is precious little to discuss today.  Risk is on its back foot with equity markets in Europe mostly under pressures, and Chinese markets, especially, seeing weakness led by the Hang Seng’s -1.5% performance.  US futures are also a bit lower at this hour (7:30) following Friday’s lackluster session.  As discussed yesterday, there remains an active dialog between the bulls and the bears, with the bulls having the better of it for now, but the bears unwilling to give in.  My working assumption is we need that to occur before things can turn around, so we shall see.

 

As to the interest rate outlook, opposite the Chinese rate cuts, the Western markets continue to price in further rate hikes as inflation remains far above target levels throughout 6 of the G7 with only Japan maintaining their current QE/NIRP policies.  I think of greater concern for many economists is the fact that the inversion of the Treasury curve is not only substantial but has been increasing lately and is pushing back to -100bps for the 2yr-10yr spread.  Perhaps, after 11 months of this price action, the question needs to be asked if this is a natural occurrence and a clear signal for a recession in the not too distant future, or if there is something else happening, perhaps an artificial bid in the back end via Japanese QE, maintaining much lower than realistic long-term rates as a way to prevent the US government’s interest expenses from rising too rapidly.  With that as backdrop, though, it must be noted that European sovereign markets are much firmer this morning with 10-year yields all sharply lower, 6bp-7bp on the continent and 14bps lower in the UK after a new issuance with the highest coupon (4.5%) in decades drew substantial demand.

 

In the commodity markets, oil is relatively flat today having recaptured the $70/bbl level last month and to my mind seems to have found a bottom.  While gold is flat and continuing its consolidation, base metals markets are under a bit of pressure on this risk off day.

 

Finally, the dollar is generally a bit stronger, at least vs. its G10 counterparts, with only the yen (+0.4%) showing its haven characteristics while essentially the rest of the bloc has fallen about -0.35%.  In the emerging markets, the picture is more mixed with about half the currencies slightly stronger and half weaker but none having moved more than 0.3% in either direction, an indication that this is positional not newsworthy.

 

Looking ahead, this week brings mostly housing data but of more importance, we hear from Chairman Powell twice as he testifies to both the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow and Thursday respectively.  We also hear from the BOE on Thursday with another 25bp rate hike expected there.

 

Today

Housing Starts

1400K

 

Building Permits

1425K

Thursday

Chicago Fed National Index

-0.10

 

Initial Claims

260K

 

Continuing Claims

1785K

 

Existing Home Sales

4.25M

 

Leading Indicators

-0.8%

Friday

Flash PMI Manufacturing

48.5

 

Flash PMI Services

54.0

 

Flash PMI Composite

53.5

Source: Bloomberg

 

I think we can expect Powell to continue the hawkish rhetoric and he will do so until either inflation is very clearly lowered, as measured by the regular data, or until the Unemployment rate starts to rise sharply.  However, the market is becoming of the opinion that Madame Lagarde and Governor Bailey will be more hawkish than Powell.  This has been the driver for the dollar’s relative softness over the past month.  In contrast, I remain quite confident that if Powell does pivot, it won’t be long before both the ECB and BOE do the same.

 

Good luck

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Naught but Naive

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Right now, there are two distinct views
On prices and markets and news
For bulls it’s a time
For rapture sublime
While bears are all singing the blues

But there are still those who believe
The bullish view’s naught but naïve
Inflation’s not dead
And looking ahead
The bulls will have reason to grieve

As it is a US market holiday, with no equity or bond market trading, today’s observations will be brief.  While there are always two sides to the market story, I find that the recent gap between views is remarkably wide.  Perhaps this is because after more than a decade of ultralow interest rates, where whether one was bullish or bearish, the outcomes didn’t seem dramatically different, we are now in a situation where interest rates enter into investment decisions in a far more impactful manner.

 

Arguably, everything starts with the Fed, as well as its brethren central banks.  And this is the first place where opinions are so widely varied.  There is a growing camp that is certain that the Fed did not merely skip hiking rates last week while they observe the data, but that the rate hiking cycle is over.  This view is based on the strong belief that inflation is over, it is trending lower and that by the end of the year, not only will headline inflation be 2% or lower, but that core CPI will be following it down as well.  If this is your underlying belief set, it is easy to understand why you would be bullish on risk assets going forward.

 

The sequence goes something like this: tepid economic growth => rapidly falling inflation => end of Fed hiking cycle with eventual pivot to cuts => equity markets anticipating lower rates and growth rebound => Buy Stonks! 

 

Certainly, tepid economic growth seems to be the only part of the narrative that is widely accepted.  However, it is the inflation piece where different views start to drive the separation between camps.  Headline CPI (and likely PCE next week) has been falling on the back of the decline in energy and food prices compared with the immediate post Ukraine invasion situation.  The bullish argument also relies on the idea that due to the BLS methodology of incorporating housing inflation into its data with a significant lag, that the core number is going to start to decline sharply as well.  And it is this piece of the puzzle that is far harder to accept as a given. 

 

Thus far, there has been little to no evidence that core CPI is declining rapidly, in fact it is not declining at all and has been running around 5+% for a year now.  Perhaps wage pressures will collapse and eventually service prices will fall, but there is no evidence of that yet.  Perhaps home prices will fall sharply across the country, but there is no evidence of that either.  Rather, there are pockets of strength and pockets of weakness, but the overall data continues to show slow gains in prices.  As to straight rents (not OER), again, with Unemployment remaining low and wage gains evident, why is there a strong belief that rents are going to fall?  But all of this is part of the bull case, inflation is over, deflation is coming and the Fed is going to cut rates.  Oh yeah, AI!  AI is going to drive equity market values higher forever!

 

At the same time, the bear case essentially disagrees with the inflation collapsing thesis and points to the fact that the entire equity market rally this year has been on the narrowest breadth in history, with just 7  stocks accounting for the entire gain of the S&P 500.  So, 493 of the 500 companies are essentially unchanged on the year while 7 have had outsized gains and that is the definition of a bull market.  In the past, when market breadth had narrowed to levels currently seen, there has always been a retracement.  This is not to say that we are about to turn lower starting tomorrow (although risk was clearly off in the overnight session and in Europe as I type), but unless one is willing to believe that the entire economy will be driven by 7 companies going forward, changes seem likely.  And those changes mean repricing those seven leading companies lower.

 

Add to this view the idea that inflation will remain far stickier than the bullish narrative which means that interest rates are going to remain higher for longer (just like the Fed has explained) and having a bearish view is easier to understand.  Remember, too, there are a large percentage of companies in the S&P 500, something like 100 or so, that are zombies, defined as companies whose cash flows doesn’t cover their debt service and so they need to constantly borrow more to stay afloat.  There have already been more than 230 bankruptcies of companies with >$50 million in liabilities through the first four months of the year, a record pace.  Some are quite well-known, like Bed Bath & Beyond, and many are less famous.  But given T-bill yields are above 5%, there is much less search for yield and junk names have to pay a lot more for their funding.  Many of them will not be able to afford the new funding levels and will follow BB&B into bankruptcy.  This is not a bullish take.

 

So, that’s what we have, a growing gap between the bulls and the bears, with each side looking at the same data and seeing completely different things. (Sounds a lot like politics these days!)  Personally, I fall on the bearish side of the line, but you probably already knew that.  As time passes, I expect that we will see far less indication that inflation is over, and at some point, there will be capitulation.  But right now, the following graphic from CNN tells the story:

Good luck

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The Battle’s Been Won

Posted on by 
‘Bout Jay and the FOMC
The market has come to agree
The battle’s been won
And hiking is done
So, buy stocks with verve and with glee

In Europe, though, Madame Lagarde
Is finding that things are still hard
Inflation’s not tamed
And she will be blamed
If prices, she cannot retard

Meanwhile on the world’s other side
Where growth has begun to backslide
The PBOC
More cash will set free
As Xi tries to hold back the tide

When looking at the market activity yesterday, it is easy to conclude that the market believes the Fed has instituted their last hike.  This was evident in the equity market’s performance where all three major indices rallied more than 1% and it was evident in the FX market where the dollar was pummeled, falling by 1% or more against 7 of its G10 counterparts as well as about half the EMG bloc.  In addition, Treasury yields fell sharply as the idea that the Fed is going to continue hiking, as implied by Chairman Powell in his comments on Wednesday, seems to have faded from memory. 

 

But that’s not all!  While key markets are beginning to discount any further Fed activity, the ECB not only raised their rate structure by 25bps as expected, but Madame Lagarde essentially promised another hike in July and this morning the ECB’s hawks are circling and hinting that a September rate hike is quite possible as well. 

 

Now, we already know that the Fed’s dot plot is calling for 2 more rate hikes this year, but the Fed funds futures market is not in accord with that view.  Rather, it is pricing a 70% probability of a July hike as the final move.  But, will they hike again?  Clearly, between now and the end of July we will all have seen a great deal more data, including both an NFP and CPI report, and that will have a major impact on the Fed.  But after yesterday’s US data dump, which showed Retail Sales holding up far better than expected while both the Import and Export Price Indices showed price declines, there has been a significant increase in the chatter of the Fed pulling off a soft landing after all.  And, if the landing is soft, do they need to hike more?

 

Although the manufacturing side of the economy remains lackluster, Services have been killing it.  There is one other reason to believe the Fed will remain on hold as well, and that is the employment situation.  While we have seen a much hotter than forecast NFP print basically each month for the past year, we are starting to see Initial Claims data tick higher.  Yesterday’s 262K was both higher than expected and the highest print since October 2021 when claims were tumbling during the post-pandemic recovery.  More ominously, the 4-week and 13-week moving averages (analyzed to seek a trend and remove the weekly choppiness) are both clearly trending higher.  If that number continues to rise, the Fed’s confidence in the economic recovery continuing is likely to be impaired.  In fact, I think this is the feature that is most likely to cause the Fed to stop hiking.

 

If we pivot to Asia for a moment, we see a completely different set of concerns in both China and Japan.  Starting with China, after cutting their lending rates earlier this week, the PBOC is still struggling to figure out how to support what is a clearly softening economy.  Although there has been much lip service paid to the fact that China will no longer prop up the property market and investment and is instead seeking to generate more domestic consumption, the fact that the youth unemployment rate is at a record 20.8% and that the only playbook the Chinese really understand is infrastructure spending and leveraged property speculation, they are falling back into that trap.  Rumors abound that the government is going to put forth a CNY1 trillion (~$140B) spending package and that the PBOC is going to ease restrictions on property lending, removing the ban on second home purchases in small cities.  Remember, property speculation was a critical part of China’s rapid growth as people there have little confidence in a social safety net and were using those second homes as an investment to secure their nest egg.  Alas, with China’s population shrinking, that may no longer be an interesting investment for the middle class.  So, while China’s problems are different, they are no less severe than those in the West.

 

Uncertainty is
“Extremely high” over both
Wages and prices

So, Ueda-san
Will keep liquidity flows
Like flooding rivers

As to Japan, I’m old enough to remember when there was a growing belief that once Kuroda-san stepped down as BOJ head, his replacement would have free rein to tighten policy. Boy, were we ever wrong about that.  After last night, while there was no policy adjustment as expected, Ueda-san’s comments can only be construed as strongly dovish and the market got the message.  JGB yields slid a few basis points and are back below 0.40% while the yen is the only currency that is underperforming the dollar.  Meanwhile, the Nikkei (+0.65%) continues its recent strong performance as the second best major index after only the NASDAQ.

The one thing that we know is that things do not seem to be evolving as per much of the consensus from earlier this year.  While there is still a long way to go before this cycle ends, and I still expect a more significant economic slowdown globally, the possibility that Chairman Powell pulls off a soft landing cannot be dismissed.  And as I saw on Twitter yesterday, if he does so, he will be hailed as the greatest Fed chair ever, even more so than Paul Volcker.  Alas, I fear things will not work out that way.  Remember that monetary policy works with long and variable lags, and I would contend that the economy is likely just beginning to feel the true impacts of tighter policy.  Now, this may only happen in the manufacturing sector, where the cost of capital is such a critical input, but history has shown if that sector stumbles, it drags the economy down with it.  Remember that so much of the service economy exists to service manufacturing, so the two are quite intertwined.

Remember, too, there are potential exogenous shocks, both positive and negative, that can have a big impact.  What if the Ukraine war ended?  What if China invaded Taiwan?  What if there was an escalation of fighting in the Middle East with a dramatic reduction in oil production?  All I am pointing out is that myopically focusing on just the economic data is not sufficient for a risk manager.  Sh*t happens and it can matter a lot.

Ok, as to today, we already know that risk is on.  The data coming out this morning is Michigan Sentiment (exp 60.0) and of the three Fed speakers, two have already commented with Governor Waller not talking economics or policy, but rather bank regulation and Bullard was more theoretical than policy focused, so really there has been nothing new there either.  In a little while, Richmond’s Barkin will discuss inflation, so that could be interesting.  But for right now, the market has made up its mind.  Everything is right as rain so add risk.  That means the dollar is likely to remain under pressure with a test of its lows (EUR 1.11, DXY 102) coming soon to a screen near you.

Heading into a bank holiday weekend, I expect positions to be lightened but the recent dollar weakening trend to remain intact.

Good luck and good weekend

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Firmly On Hold

Posted on by 
For now the Fed’s firmly on hold
While Powell made statements quite bold
It’s time to assess
How great is the mess
Created by stories we’ve told

This morning then, Christine is live
With certainty that twenty-five
Is how much she’ll hike
As she tries to spike
Inflation while growth she’ll still drive

To virtually nobody’s surprise, the Fed left policy rates on hold yesterday after what has been characterized by many as a hawkish pause.  This seems a fair assessment given the effort by Chairman Powell to stress that inflation remains too high and has not been falling as rapidly as they would like to see.  For instance, comments like the following during the press conference were quite clear:

 

“If you look at core PCE inflation over the last six months, you’re not seeing a lot of progress. It’s running at a level over 4.5%, far above our target and not really moving down. We want to see it moving down decisively, that’s all.”

“We’re two-and-a-quarter years into this, and forecasters, including Fed forecasters, have consistently thought inflation was about to turn down and typically forecasted that it would, and been wrong.”

“What we’d like to see is credible evidence that inflation is topping out and then getting it to come down.”

 

These were just some of the comments but give a flavor for what the mindset appears to be in the Eccles Building.  Looking at the dot plot, the median expectation is for two more rate hikes in 2023 and there were zero expectations of a rate cut.  The point is that higher for longer, which is what they have been preaching for upwards of a year, remains the mantra and given how robust the employment situation remains, they do not seem likely to change that view in the near term.  A quick look at the Fed funds futures market shows a market probability of 71% for a rate hike in July where things peak, and then pricing for a cut in January.  However, as I have maintained, I see inflation remaining quite sticky and the probability of a rate cut as far lower than that.

 

The market response was perfectly sensible in the bond market, where yields continue to climb, and the yield curve inversion increased to -91bps.  2-Year yields are now back to 4.73% as traders and investors price in a much higher probability that even if rates don’t rise much further, they are unlikely to fall back.  In fact, 10-Year yields around the world have all risen further as the global tightening cycle seems set to continue.  Recall, we saw Canada, Australia and now the Fed come out hawkishly and this morning the ECB is set to follow suit with a 25bp rate hike.  At this stage, there are no G10 central banks that believe they have solved the inflation problem…and they are right.

 

A quick look at European sovereign yields ahead of the ECB announcement shows they have risen between 5bps and 10bps this morning as there is clearly an expectation that after the extremely hawkish commentary from Powell yesterday, Madame Lagarde will be forced to follow suit.  In truth, that seems a reasonable expectation and when looking at the OIS market in Europe, expectations appear to be for another one or two hikes after today’s move.  Given that inflation remains sticky there too, that doesn’t seem far-fetched.

 

On last thing regarding central bank hikes is the Bank of England next week, where a 25bp hike is fully priced, but more impressively, an additional 4 hikes are priced in by the end of the year.  Inflation in the UK has clearly been even more problematic than in the Eurozone or the US, while the Old Lady has been lagging lately so this does make sense as well.

 

There are, though several places where tighter policy is not on the cards, namely China and Japan.  Starting with Japan first, YCC remains the current policy framework and there is no indication they are going to change things anytime soon.  10-year yields there remain well below the YCC cap and there is much more discussion regarding the potential for a snap election in Japan than about monetary policy.  The yen (-0.8%) is weakening further today as the more hawkish Fed combined with the continued dovishness of the BOJ weigh on the currency.  We’ve seen this movie before when the dollar ran up above 150 in October, and while that is still a long way from today’s price, the trend since March has been very clear.  Absent a major policy change from either the Fed or the BOJ, look for a weaker yen over time.

 

As to China, they did cut their Medium-Term Lending Facility rate by 10bps last night as widely expected although the currency did not really move as it was fully priced already.  However, the Chinese government is clearly flailing about for ways to support the economy without increasing the leverage that already exists.  The problem is that the PBOC toolkit, as well as the CCP toolkit, relies on centralized direction not market activity, and it appears that the limits of those policies are starting to be reached.  There is little reason to believe the renminbi is going to rebound in the short-term as a weaker currency is the only outlet valve they have.  Given measured inflation in China has been so low, I expect we can see a continued grind lower (dollar higher) in the second half of the year.  Think 7.50 by Christmas.

 

With all that news, US equity markets had a mixed picture yesterday with the NASDAQ continuing its run higher with a small (0.4%) gain, but the rest of the market under more pressure.  Chinese equities responded quite positively to the rate cut there with substantial gains, but the Nikkei was simply flat on the day.  And now, European bourses are in the red by about -0.7% with US futures also pointing lower.

 

Oil prices (+0.75%) are edging higher but that is after a reversal yesterday brought them back below $70/bbl.  There remains a great deal of controversy over just how badly demand is going to be hit given the lackluster Chinese economy and the huge split on views regarding the US and Europe with a recession call still quite popular although there are those who are now calling for a successful soft landing by the Fed.  Precious metals are a little less precious this morning as are base metals which are indicative of dollar strength I believe.  However, net, I would say the commodity space is more in the recession camp than not.

 

Finally, the dollar is stronger vs virtually all its EMG counterparts with HUF (-1.25%) the laggard as market participants take profits in anticipation of a rate cut from Hungary vs. the Fed’s tough talk.  But the bulk of the bloc is weaker across all three regions.  In the G10, while the yen is worst off, we are seeing weakness almost everywhere except NOK (+0.3%) which is clearly benefitting from oil’s modest rally.  Given the Fed’s unambiguous hawkishness, I suspect the dollar will remain better bid than not for a while yet.

 

On the data front, there is a lot coming today as follows:  Retail Sales (exp -0.2%, +0.1% ex autos); Initial Claims (245K); Continuing Claims (1768K); Empire Manufacturing (-15.1); Philly Fed (-14.0); IP (0.1%); and Capacity Utilization (79.7%).  At this point, the Retail Sales data is likely the most important as the discussion regarding a recession will hinge on whether or not economic activity is still improving.  Remember, though, this data is nominal, not inflation adjusted.  On a real basis, Retail Sales have been falling for 6 months straight, not a good sign.  As to the Fed speaking slate, nobody is on the calendar today, but we will hear from three (Bullard, Waller and Barkin) tomorrow, with all likely to be focused on reiterating the hawkish message.

 

A hawkish Fed bodes well for the dollar going forward, so unless (until?) something in the US economy breaks, my money is on higher rates and a stronger dollar.

 

Good luck

Adf

Which One Means More?

Posted on by 
The question is, which one means more?
The headline inflation? Or core?
The former declined
But please bear in mind 
The latter rose more than before

Which brings us today to the Fed
Where skipping a rate hike is said
To be what they’ll try
Then come late July
Will hike ere more water they tread

By now you are all aware that CPI’s release yesterday was a bit of a mixed bag with the headline number falling slightly more than expected to 4.0% while the core (ex food & energy) fell slightly less than expected to 5.3%.  As always, my go-to source on inflation is @inflation_guy, who in yesterdays’ post clearly laid out that there is very limited evidence that core inflation is going to decline sharply from these levels anytime soon.  In a nutshell, the key issue is that the housing portion of the index remains robust and that represents slightly more than one-third of the entire reading. 

 

Ask yourself the following question; why would a landlord reduce his asking rents if his costs are rising (taxes and maintenance) and his potential customers are all seeing wages rise healthily, at least as per measured by the BLS and the Fed?  Of course, the answer is that landlord is unlikely to reduce rents, but rather raise them, and that is not going to feed into lower inflation.  One other thing to note is the price of energy, which was the key driver of the decline in headline CPI, has the earmarks of a bottom here.  Not only have we seen production cuts from OPEC+, but it appears the Biden administration is beginning the process of finally refilling the SPR which means they have likely mapped the bottom of oil prices which have rebounded more than 5% from the lows seen Monday after the news broke.

 

As expected, the equity market took this news as a huge positive and continued its recent rally as it is almost certain that the Fed will be holding rates unchanged when they announce their policy update this afternoon.  The Fed funds futures market has reduced its pricing for a rate hike to just 9% this morning although the implied probability of a hike in July has risen to 71% now.  As an aside, the futures market is still pricing in the first rate cut by December or January 2024, although I suspect we will need to see a more significant decline in economic activity with much higher Unemployment for that to come to fruition.

 

This afternoon’s FOMC statement, and more importantly Chairman Powell’s press conference are the next critical features for the market.  There is much talk of this being a ‘hawkish pause’ where they will not change rates but really play up the still hot core inflation data to make sure that everyone knows they are not going soft on inflation.  As I have repeatedly explained, I continue to look at NFP as the most critical data point these days because as long as that number keeps printing solidly and beating expectations, the Fed will not be overly concerned a recession is coming and will feel comfortable tightening further if inflation starts to tick higher again.  And so, at this time, all we can do is wait for the outcome at 2pm.

 

Ahead of that, here’s what’s been happening:  risk has largely been in favor as yesterday’s US equity rally was followed by strength in Japan (+1.5%) and Australia (+0.3%) although many other APAC markets, notably China and South Korea, fell.  The China situation is quite interesting as there is news that the Chinese government has convened several meetings with business leaders to get ideas as to how to improve the economy there.  Not surprisingly, according to a Bloomberg story, the discussions focused on more market-oriented actions and less state planning as well as better coordinated fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.  My guess is that President Xi is not keen to let the market do the work as he will not control that, so it will be interesting to see how things there progress.  Meanwhile, European bourses are all much stronger this morning, even the FTSE 100 (+0.6%) despite a modestly weaker than expected set of GDP and IP data being released.  And of course, US futures continue to edge higher, at least NASDAQ futures do, although it would be quite surprising to see any large movement ahead of the FOMC this afternoon.

 

Of much greater interest to me is that bond yields rose so sharply yesterday with 10yr Treasuries rising 7 bps yesterday and another 1.5bps this morning, despite (because of?) the CPI data being soft.  The curve inversion remained essentially unchanged at -85bps, so I guess the story I saw that might have been the driver was when Treasury secretary Yellen was asked in Congressional testimony about the Fed and Treasury being prepared if China were to liquidate their entire portfolio of Treasuries, which is ~$875 billion.  That seems highly unlikely to me, but I guess anything is possible.  European sovereign yields are also rising after gains yesterday, which seems at odds with the equity markets that clearly believe in lower inflation.  Things are quite confusing these days.  As well, there will be much attention paid to China tonight to see if the PBOC follows through with a 10bp rate cut in the 1yr lending facility, or perhaps, if they are concerned about economic weakness, opts for more.

 

As mentioned, oil prices continue to rebound, pushing back to $70/bbl while gold got crushed yesterday seemingly in response to the rise in Treasury yields.  This morning the barbarous relic is ever so slightly firmer but in a bigger picture view, remains relatively unchanged over the past month.  Copper has continued its recent countertrend rally, but I expect that we will need to see real signs of an economic rebound for the red metal to get back to levels seen earlier this year above $4.00/pound.

 

Finally, the dollar remains under modest pressure overall, sliding about 0.25% against most of its G10 counterparts and a bit further against several EMG currencies.  Notably, ZAR (+1.0%) is the best performer today, after a solid Retail Sales print this morning.  As well, we see PLN (+0.7%) rising on rising zloty yields after the government increased the budget deficit on increased spending.  On the downside, KRW (-0.55%) is the laggard, falling after several days of a sharp rally has led to profit-taking.

 

Ahead of the Fed, we see PPI this morning (exp 1.5%, 2.9% ex food & energy) although that seems anti-climactic after yesterday’s CPI.  Add to that the Fed is coming and I cannot believe it will have any impact at all.

 

So, it is all about the Fed and how they sound since it seems pretty clear that they will not be adjusting rates today.  Look carefully at the dot plot as well, for clues to their forward-looking beliefs.  As to the dollar’s response, nothing has changed my big picture view that higher rates here will continue to support the greenback.

 

Good luck

Adf

Desperate Straits

Posted on by 
Ahead of today’s CPI
Jobs data from England showed why
Inflation remains
The greatest of pains
That central banks can’t wave good-bye

Despite all their hiking of rates
In seeking to reach their mandates
The job market’s growing 
Which seems to be showing 
Their models are in desperate straits

Today’s key feature is the monthly CPI report from the US where expectations are for a 4.1% headline reading and 5.2% core reading, with both still far higher than the Fed’s 2.0% target.  While the headline number is certainly good news, the Fed’s problem is that the core reading continues to bump along pretty steadily above 5.0% and is not showing any indication of a sharp move lower.  While an exceptionally weak headline reading will almost certainly result in a further rally in risk assets on the premise that the Fed’s pause skip is now baked in, the greater question is how long can the Fed tolerate such a high core CPI reading before resuming their rate hikes?  As we head into the data, the Fed funds futures market is currently pricing just under a 25% chance of a hike tomorrow but nearly an 87% chance of at least one hike by July.  However, that is the peak with a cut then assumed by December.

 

Of course, the thing that is not getting any attention at this point is what happens if the reading is hot?  I have literally not read a single analysis that anticipates a higher outcome showing inflation has become even more intractable than it had seemed for the past several months.  My take is a higher-than-expected reading, especially in the core print, could see the market substantially increase their pricing for a rate hike tomorrow as well as another one or two before the year is over, and that may not be a positive for risk assets.

 

And that’s where the UK’s employment data comes into the discussion, as it is showing the same characteristics as the US employment data, surprising strength.  Briefly, instead of a rising Unemployment Rate, it fell to 3.8% with wages rising by 6.5% Y/Y, well above last month’s and well above forecasts.  There was a reduction in the number of jobless claims and a significant growth in employment of 250K on a quarterly basis, also far above forecasts.  In other words, despite a lot of doom and gloom regarding the UK economy and the irreparable damage that Brexit has done to the nation, it seems that there is continued economic activity at a decent pace and businesses are still hiring and paying up to do so.  I have to say that sounds suspiciously like the commentary regarding the US economy, where despite an ongoing belief that Unemployment is set to rise, each monthly data point has been surprising on the high side, often by a significant amount.  As I have written before, perhaps it is time for the central banking community to review the efficacy of their models as they no longer seem to represent any sense of reality.

 

The other noteworthy news overnight was that the PBOC reduced their 7-day Reverse Repo rate by 10bps to 1.90% in a surprising move.  Tomorrow night the PBOC has their monthly meeting and expectations are for a 10bp reduction in their medium-term lending facilities as the Chinese government struggles with a much slower than expected rebound from their latest Covid reopening.  In fairness, it is not just the Chinese government that is surprised as one of the main themes we have seen for the past several months was the expectation that China’s rebound would result in a significant increase in demand for commodities and that has just not occurred.  However, the fact remains that China is easing policy, both fiscal and monetary, while the G7 remains in a tightening phase.  The natural outcome here is that the renminbi has continued to slide.  While the onshore market closed little changed, with CNY -0.1%, the initial reaction upon the announcement of the rate cut was a little more substantial.  Net, though, the renminbi has been weakening steadily all year long and given recent very low inflation data, it is abundantly clear that the PBOC is not concerned at current levels.  I expect that USDCNY and USDCNH have much further to climb as the summer progresses, especially if CPI continues to run hot here in the US.

 

And those are really the key stories as we await that CPI print shortly.  Asian equity markets followed the US higher last night with the Nikkei continuing its sharp rally, rising 1.8%, and the rest of the markets trailing along behind. Europe, though, is having a less formidable session with minimal movement as the major indices are +/-0.1% from yesterday’s closing levels.  As to US futures, only NASDAQ futures are showing any movement, gaining 0.3% at this hour (7:30).

 

Bond markets are similarly dull, save the Gilt market which has seen 10yr yields rise 5.7bps, as both Treasuries and the rest of the European sovereign market are within 1bp of yesterday’s prices.  The Fed continues to be active in the Treasury market, taking down a significant portion of the issuance yesterday, albeit not directly as they bought off-the-run bonds instead of the issuances.  However, today’s data could easily have a significant impact as traders try to reassess the Fed’s response to a data surprise.

 

Oil prices have stopped falling and have bounce 1.8% from yesterday’s lowest levels of just below $67/bbl, although the trend continues to be lower.  As I have repeatedly written, this is the one market that is all-in on the recession call. Gold (+0.4%) has been pretty uninteresting lately as it stopped falling but has basically flat-lined for the past month just below $2000/oz.  Meanwhile, copper has rallied 2% this morning but is still well below highs seen earlier this year.  However, I think a large part of these movements are the fact that the dollar is generally softer this morning.

 

Versus its G10 counterparts, the dollar is softer across the board with GBP (+0.5%) the leading gainer but decent strength everywhere.  Versus the EMG bloc, there is a bit more variety with KRW (+1.3%) by far the leading gainer on a combination of reported corporate repatriation of overseas cash flows as well as hopes that China’s rate cut will support further growth in Korean exports.  However, after that, the bloc is basically split between gainers and laggards with the biggest moves just 0.3% either way, not enough to get excited about.

 

And that’s really it for today.  It is all about CPI this morning and depending on the data, we have the opportunity to get a better sense of how the Fed might behave tomorrow.

 

Good luck

Adf

Views Will Be Tested

Posted on by 
When looking ahead to this week
With data and central bank speak
Some views will be tested
And some have suggested
The market is reaching its peak

But there is a growing belief
The future (that’s AI in brief)
Is shiny and bright
And stocks will take flight
Beware though, it could lead to grief

First a correction to Friday’s note regarding the blip lower in oil prices.  It was not inventory data but a story on a relatively obscure website, Middle East Eye, (h/t @inflation_guy) that discussed a seeming breakthrough in US-Iran talks that would allow Iran to export up to 1 million bbl/day in exchange for an agreement to slow their Uranium processing.  However, the story was vehemently denied by both the Iranians and the US and has been consistently denied since then by both sides repeatedly.  Now, I am of two minds on this story as denials of this extremity tend to point to some reality underlying the situation, but politically it would seem very difficult for the Biden administration to be seen to be negotiating with Iran heading into an election.  Regardless of the driver though, oil (-2.2%) is falling sharply again today with WTI below $69/bbl now.  This continues to point to the dichotomy of commodity markets sensing significant global slowing in growth while the equity markets see the world growing gangbusters.  Both sides cannot be correct, so at least one set of markets will need to adjust going forward.

 

Meanwhile, after an extremely lackluster week regarding new information, this week is exactly the opposite with critical data points like CPI as well as three major central bank meetings, Fed, ECB and BOJ.

 

Tuesday

NFIB Small Biz Optimism

88.4

 

CPI

0.2% (4.1% Y/Y)

 

-ex food & energy

0.4% (5.2% Y/Y)

Wednesday

PPI

-0.1% (1.5% Y/Y)

 

-ex food & energy

0.2% (2.9% Y/Y)

 

FOMC Rate Decision

5.25% (unchanged)

Thursday

ECB Rate Decision

3.50% (0.25% increase)

 

Initial Claims

250K

 

Continuing Claims

1787K

 

Retail Sales

-0.1%

 

-ex autos

0.1%

 

Empire Manufacturing

-15.1

 

Philly Fed

-13.0

 

IP

0.1%

 

Capacity Utilization

79.7%

 

Business Inventories

0.2%

Friday

BOJ Rate Decision

-0.1% (unchanged)

 

Michigan Sentiment

60.1

Source: Bloomberg

 

So, clearly, we have a lot to absorb this week although today is lacking in new news.  A quick look at the PPI data shows why there is a growing cadre of people who are in the ‘inflation is over’ camp, as the Y/Y data is collapsing back to levels with which we are more familiar over the past decades.  However, I would highlight that core CPI remains well above the Fed target with only a very slow decline ongoing.  I remain in the sticky inflation camp on the basis of both personal experience and the fact that a critical part of the statistic, housing, is not actually showing any real declines.  Here is a link to an excellent article that helps explain the fact that rents are not declining very much at all, in reality, and if housing costs continue to climb, so will CPI.

 

I think the real question is what will happen if the CPI number is hot, say 5.5% core and showing no indication that the much hoped for slowing is ongoing?  How will the Fed respond the following day?  Remember, the market is largely priced for a pause skip with a 27% probability of a rate hike currently in the futures market, although an 80% chance of one by next month.  However, we all thought Australia was done and they hiked last week.  We all thought Canada was done and they hiked last week.  Will the Fed be willing to ‘surprise’ the market if the data points to continuing inflation pressures? 

 

This is especially timely as this morning there was a story in Bloomberg explaining that the idea that wage pressures are driving inflation is losing credence with a far less certain outlook on that prospect.  Essentially, a Fed paper was published explaining that while wages and inflation are correlated, the direction of causality, if there is one, is not clear.  That seems like a way for the Fed to be able to pivot their views to a different underlying cause and given housing’s huge importance to the total CPI number, ongoing rises in rentals would certainly be a concern.  One thing we do know is that if the CPI data come out soft, the equity market will rocket higher, at least initially, as the working assumption will be that the Fed is done.  Like I said, lots to anticipate this week.

 

As to today, the bulls remain in control as Friday’s very modest US rally saw Asia follow higher and Europe currently showing gains on the order of 0.5% – 0.6%.  US futures are following suit, with NASDAQ futures up 0.5% at this hour (7:45) and leading the way.

 

Treasury yields are little changed this morning with the yield up just 1bp although European sovereign yields are all lower, especially Italy (-5.6bps) after the news that former Italian PM, Silvio Berlusconi, passed away overnight.  As he was still quite active in Italian politics and a key force in the Forza Italia party, the story is that his passing will have removed some anxiety from markets and allow the Bund – BTP spread to narrow further still.  Perhaps of more interest is the increasing inversion in the 2yr-10yr portion of the curve, now back to -86bps, and a direct result of the massive amount of Treasury issuance that has been happening since the debt ceiling was removed.  In fact, today there are auctions for 3m, 6m and 1y bills and 3y and 10y notes to the tune of $278 billion, a huge amount of supply.  Do not be surprised if the curve inversion continues further.

 

Finally, looking at the dollar, it is generally, though not universally softer.  Given oil’s decline, it is no surprise that NOK (-0.35%) is the G10 laggard, but there is also a bit of weakness in the CHF (-0.25%) on the back of a slight decline in Sight Deposits there.  Meanwhile, the rest of the bloc is modestly firmer with no outsized gainers.  In the EMG bloc, ZAR (+1.1%) continues its recent strength, having rallied 7% this month on continued belief that the electricity situation in the country is getting better.  But away from that, and the fact that TRY (-0.7%) continues to slide, the rest of the bloc appears to be awaiting the upcoming onslaught of news this week.

 

I have a sense that by the end of this week, we may have new marching orders from the markets.  I would not be surprised to see a hot CPI print get the Fed to hike instead of skipping and if we see something like that, I would look for the dollar to test its recent resistance levels and potentially break through.  Correspondingly, if CPI is soft, I imagine the market will assume the Fed is done, and we will see equities rally with the dollar falling, at least for the first leg of the move.  We shall see starting tomorrow.

 

Good luck

Adf

No Ceiling

Posted on by 
The narrative’s taken a turn
As traders, for lower rates, yearn
Initial Claims jumped
And that, in turn, pumped
The idea that rate hikes, Jay’d spurn

To add to the positive feeling
Inflation in China is reeling
Now bulls are all in
And to bears’ chagrin
It seems that for stocks there’s no ceiling

Well, it seems that Initial Claims can have an impact after all!  Yesterday the data series printed at 261K, the highest level since October 2021 and significantly higher than all the economists’ forecasts.  The market impact was clear as it appears there is an evolution from the narrative preceding the data release to a newer version.  For clarity’s sake, I would argue the prevailing narrative went something like this:

  • Prices were falling sharply, and inflation would soon be back at or near the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Unemployment remains low because of a significant mismatch between job openings and potential employees so consumption would remain robust
  • This economic strength will overcome further Fed tightening…so
  • Buy stocks!

 

Arguably the newer narrative is something like this:

  • Initial Claims data shows that the employment situation may be deteriorating
  • Not only will the Fed skip hiking at next week’s meeting, but at any meeting going forward
  • Rising Unemployment will force the Fed to finally pivot and cut rates…so
  • Buy stocks!

 

Granted these may be somewhat simplistic descriptions, but I would argue that they are representative of the current zeitgeist.  If nothing else, I would argue that the algorithms that implement so much trading these days are written in this manner. 

 

At any rate, the impact was far more significant than would ordinarily be expected from an Initial Claims release.  Rate hike expectations by the Fed have begun to fade, not only for next week, but for the July meeting as well.  Treasury yields fell 8bps yesterday, although they have rebounded slightly this morning by 3bps along with European government bonds.  And, of course, equity markets all rallied further yesterday with the S&P 500 ticking up to a level 20% above the October lows so now “officially” in a bull market.  In fact, that equity rally continued through into Asia as all markets there were higher led by the Nikkei (+2.0%).  Life is good!

 

Is this sustainable?  I guess so, the market for risk assets has been willing to look through every potential problem and continue to rally.  Are there flaws in the argument?  I would argue there are, but as John Maynard Keynes explained to us all, the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.

 

One other noteworthy data point was released overnight, Chinese CPI and PPI, both of which remain quite low.  CPI rose only 0.2% in the past year while PPI fell -4.6%.  These results have market participants looking for the Chinese to ease monetary policy still further to support the economy, continuing to widen the policy differential between China and the G10 nations which, at least for now, remain in tightening mode.  As such, it should not be that surprising that the renminbi (-0.3%) fell further last night.  Given the distinct lack of inflationary pressures currently evident in China, I suspect the PBOC will be quite comfortable watching CNY weaken further still, with another 3%-5% quite realistic as the year progresses.  After all, China remains a mercantilist economy highly reliant on exports and a weaker yuan will only help their cause.

 

Now, keep in mind that everything is not positive.  We continue to see weak economic activity throughout the Eurozone with this morning’s Italian IP data (-1.9% M/M, -7.2% Y/Y) showing there are still many problems on the continent.  It is no wonder that Italian PM Meloni is so unhappy with the ECB as the Italian economy continues to stumble while the ECB continues to tighten policy.  But it certainly appears that Madame Lagarde is unconcerned about Italy at least for the time being.  However, while the ECB will almost certainly raise rates next week, if the Fed truly has finished their rate hike cycle, the ECB will not be far behind.

 

So, as we head into the weekend, the equity markets that are actually trading at this hour (7:30) are in the red with all of Europe down on the order of -0.2% to -0.4% and US futures also slightly softer.  Meanwhile, oil prices (+0.25%) are edging higher this morning, although that was after a sharp afternoon decline yesterday on inventory data.  Meanwhile, gold, which rallied sharply yesterday amid a weak dollar session, is consolidating its gains and the base metals are mixed.

 

Finally, the dollar is mixed this morning with about a 50/50 split in the G10 led by NOK (+1.1%) after CPI printed at a higher than expected 6.7% in May and the market is now pricing in further policy tightening by the Norgesbank.  This seems to fly in the face of the inflation is collapsing narrative which should make next week’s US CPI data on Tuesday that much more interesting.  After that, the rest of the commodity bloc of currencies is slightly firmer vs. the greenback while the European currencies as well as the yen are all under a bit of pressure.  However, on the week, the dollar has definitely backed off its recent strength.

 

In the EMG bloc, the pattern is similar with KRW (+1.0%) the leading gainer on the view that more Chinese policy support will help the Korean economy substantially, while we continue to see ZAR (+0.5%) rally on the commodity price gains.  On the downside, TRY (-1.25%) continues to lag despite (because of?) the appointment of a new central bank chief, Hafize Gaye Erkan, within the new government.  Perhaps her background as co-CEO of First Republic Bank did not inspire confidence given its recent demise.  But regardless, TRY has fallen more than 10% this week alone and shows no signs of stopping the slide anytime soon.

 

And that, my friends, is all there is heading into the weekend.  There is neither data nor Fedspeak to look for so the FX market will almost certainly be taking its cues from the US equity markets for the day.  As such, if equity markets decline, I would look for the dollar to gain a bit and vice versa, but until we get at least through next Tuesday’s CPI, and more likely the FOMC on Wednesday, I see more range trading overall.

 

Good luck and good weekend

Adf