Tag Archives: #Putin

White House Bingo

Posted on by

At this point, investors don’t care
‘Bout tariffs and if they are there
The hype train is rolling
With pundits extolling
Nvidia’s four trillion share
 
So, Canada’s out in the cold
As Loonies, this morning, are sold
But energy’s boring
When folks are adoring
AI or, if bankers, then gold

 

The tariff machine has been switched back on with yesterday’s announcement that the US will now apply 35% tariffs to all imports from Canada that do not comply with the USMCA.  These tariffs are due to go into effect on August 1st.  It appears this is an effort by Mr Trump to push the progress of trade talks forward as they are not moving at a pace with which he is satisfied.  The Canadian response, by PM Carney, was to indicate they will redouble their efforts to get things done on a timely basis.

I understand that there are many who dislike the President’s bullying tactics as they are completely different than any previous president (or world leader really) and fall far afield from what had been previously accepted and expected in “polite” society.  Diplomats are horrified that he is forcing decisions to be made, something that has been anathema to the diplomatic community since the beginning of time.  But Mr Trump has his agenda firmly in mind and is very keen to use all the power he can to achieve it.  It turns out, the US has a great deal of power beyond its military might.

But for our purposes, the market response is the place we need to look.  First, it can be no surprise that the Canadian dollar quickly declined -0.5% on the announcement as that is the textbook response to tariffs, the country affected sees their currency weaken.  As to equity markets, as there are no TSX futures, we cannot tell exactly how stocks in Canada will be impacted but based on the fact that virtually every market is lower this morning, I expect to see weakness there as well.  in fact, a look at this listing of equity futures markets from 6:30 this morning shows exactly what is happening.  You will note that the Toronto market still reflects yesterday, but pretty much every other nation is feeling the heat of a new potential wave of tariffs from the US.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

I continue to read that European nations are getting closer to agreeing a deal with the US, something that has never occurred before and I suspect that there are a number of leaders in the EU that are growing nervous about the situation.  Again, the world was not anticipating the US to wield its power in such a brash and open manner, and many governing theories still need to be rewritten to address the new reality.

But yesterday’s story was all about Nvidia becoming the first $4 trillion market cap company, a remarkable achievement.  It seems Nvidia’s market cap is greater than the entire German stock market.  

For the longest time, I was convinced that the market concentration of the Mag7, which now account for just over 34% of the S&P 500, would ultimately lead to their demise and a major correction.  However, it is becoming harder to make the case that concentration alone is going to be the problem.  

Rather, I believe any correction will now come from a broader economic result, arguably the long forecast recession when it finally arrives.  If you recall, on Sunday I wrote about how the relative gain in corporate profits vs. labor has been a key driver in the bifurcation in the country.  I also strongly believe that President Trump is very serious about changing that situation.  The obvious solution is to reduce corporate profits.  One way to do that is to impose tariffs where companies wind up reducing their margins to maintain sales volumes. If inflation does not rise (and it has not done so yet) that is a step in the President’s direction of choice.  I have no idea whether this will work, and arguably neither does anybody else.  Virtually, every economic model is no longer viable as Mr Trump has changed the rules so completely that the underlying assumptions are almost certainly incorrect.  But remember this chart, if by the end of his term in 2028, the two lines have begun to converge more clearly, he will have changed a multi-decade trend and likely to the detriment of equity markets.

Ok, enough philosophizing, let’s see how other markets beyond equities have behaved overnight.  Bond markets have been under modest pressure with Treasury yields ticking higher by 3bps and all European sovereign yields higher by 1bp this morning.  We heard from Bundesbank, and ECB, member Isabel Schnabel that it was unlikely there would be further rate cuts from the ECB absent a major decline in Eurozone growth. Inflation has returned to their target, and she indicated her belief that current rates there were modestly accommodative, i.e. below neutral.  JGB yields have returned to 1.5% after having spent the past month below that level.  

Recall back in March and April when yields in Japan moved higher quite quickly with the 10yr touching 1.6% and the longer bonds trading above 3.0% to new all-time highs.   That panic subsided but it appears that yields are on the move again as the BOJ discusses selling its equity ETF’s in an effort to reduce their balance sheet further.  Interestingly, the yen (-0.4%) is under pressure this morning and trading back above 147 for the first time in two months.  Here’s what we know about the yen; the carry trade is still in place in significant amounts, inflation is running hot, and the BOJ clearly is uncomfortable raising rates further to address that situation.  My sense is that the yen could have further to weaken, especially if tariffs on Japanese exports are increased as per the recent letter from Mr Trump.  

Continuing with currencies, the dollar is having a good day all around, with only CNY (+0.15%) bucking the trend.  The pound (-0.45%) is under pressure after weaker than expected May GDP figures were released this morning (-0.1% vs. +0.1% expected).  We’re also seeing weakness in MXN (-0.5%) and ZAR (-0.7%) even though precious metals prices are rising this morning.  Here, too, we must keep in mind that many of the old relationships have broken down.

Finally, in the commodity space, gold (+0.65%) is back at its pivot level, taking silver (+1.4%) and platinum (+1.9%) along for the ride although copper (-2.2%) remains subject to the vagaries of exactly what those mooted 50% tariffs are going to cover.  Oil (+1.0%) which sold off yesterday after news that Saudi Arabia had been producing more than its OPEC quota, is rebounding this morning with all eyes on President Trump’s upcoming announcement regarding potential sanctions on Russia given President Putin’s unwillingness to talk peace.

And that’s all there is.  There is neither data nor scheduled Fed speakers on the calendar today, so we all await the next pronouncement from the White House.  Word is that Presidents Trump and Xi will soon be sitting down for a discussion with the opportunity to get more clarity on that situation a potential outcome.  However, White House bingo remains the game of the day, and my card has not been a winner lately.  How about yours?

Good luck and good weekend

Adf

Just a Mistake

Posted on by

It wasn’t all that long ago
That folks really wanted to know
What Jay and the Fed
Implied was ahead
And if more cuts were apropos
 
But later today when they break
Their words are unlikely to shake
The narrative theme
That whate’er they deem
Important, is just a mistake

 

Presidents Trump and Putin spoke at length yesterday, but no solution was achieved so the Ukraine War will continue unabated for now. While talks are better than not, certainly this is a disappointment to some.  As well, the astronauts who have been stranded in space for the past 8 months are safely back on earth.  I mention these things because they are seemingly far more important than central banks these days, and today, that is all we have to discuss regarding financial markets.

To begin, last night the BOJ left rates on hold as universally anticipated.  The initial market response was for the yen to weaken through 150 briefly, but then Ueda-san spoke and discussed the expected wage increases and how the economy was doing fine, and the new market assessment is that the BOJ will hike rates by 25bps in May at their next meeting.  The market response was to buy back the yen, at least for a little while, although right now, USDJPY seems to be attracted to the 150 level overall.  

Source: tradingeconomics.com

It is worth understanding, though, that the last time short-term interest rates were that high in Japan was back in July 2008.  And they have not been above that level since August 1995.  The below chart from FRED database speaks volumes about just how low interest rates have been in Japan over time, and as an adjunct, just how long the opportunity for shorting JPY on the carry trade has been around.  That dotted line is the Fed funds rate compared to the Japanese overnight rate.  

Along the central bank thesis, Bank Indonesia, too, met last night and left policy on hold with their policy rate at 5.75%.  Governor Warjiyo explained that he felt falling inflation and improving growth would help prevent rupiah weakness despite the fact that the currency has been the worst performing Asian currency this year and is trading at historic lows.

But on to the FOMC meeting which will conclude at 2:00 this afternoon with the policy statement (no change expected although some tweaking of the verbiage is likely) and the release of the latest dot plot.  You have probably forgotten that at the December meeting, the FOMC reduced the median expectation of rate cuts for 2025 from 4 prior to the election to just 2.  In the interim we have seen Fed funds futures trade to where barely one rate cut was priced in, although we are now back to three cuts, seemingly on the idea that tariffs will cause significant economic weakness, and the Fed will need to respond.  At least that’s what the punditry maintains.

Here is the last dot plot for information purposes and it will be interesting to see just how much things have changed.  will longer run rates continue to move higher?  Will 2 rate cuts still be the median outcome for 2025?  All this we get to learn at 2:00.

Source: federalreserve.gov

But arguably, of far more import will be Chairman Powell’s press conference beginning at 2:30.  Prior to the Fed’s quiet period, the broad assessment was that patience in future rate moves was appropriate and they were happy with the current situation.  However, I am confident there will be numerous questions regarding the potential impact of tariffs on monetary policy responses, as well as other things like DOGE and an audit of the Fed.  Will any of it matter?  Maybe at the margin, but for most markets, I suspect that fiscal issues will remain dominant.  The one exception is the FX market, where unalloyed hawkishness could change views on the dollar’s recent weakness (although it is firmer this morning) while a dovish tone will almost certainly undermine the greenback.  So, with no other data of note to be released beforehand, it is clearly the day’s major event.

Ahead of that event, let’s see how markets have behaved overnight.  Following a weak session in the US, where all three major indices were lower by about -1.0% on average, Asia had a mixed picture.  The Nikkei (-0.25%) found no love from Ueda-san and drifted lower.  Both Hong Kong (+0.1%) and China (+0.1%) edged higher but continue to doubt the benefits of the mooted Chinese stimulus program while the rest of the region was mixed with some gainers (Indonesia, Korea, India) and some laggards (Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia).  In Europe, too, the picture is mixed with the DAX (-0.4%) lagging while the CAC (+0.5%) is gaining.  In Germany, the historic breech of the debt brake is not having the positive impact anticipated, or perhaps this is just selling the news.  Overall, though, shares in Europe seem to be awaiting the Fed’s actions, or comments, rather than focusing on anything else.  As to US futures, at this hour (7:30), they are pointing slightly higher, about 0.25% across the board.

In the bond market, Treasury yields have edged up 1bp this morning but continue to hang around 4.30%.  European sovereign debt has seen yields slip -1bp to -2bps, arguably on the Eurozone inflation data released 0.1% lower than forecast at 2.3%.  This continues the idea that the ECB will be cutting rates again at their next meeting.  As to JGBs, they are unchanged yet again, seemingly affixed at 1.50%.

Commodity prices show oil (-0.2%) continuing yesterday’s decline.  From the time I wrote to the end of the session, WTI fell $2/bbl, perhaps on the idea that the Putin/Trump phone call was bringing the war closer to an end.  Regardless, if economic activity is slowing, that will lessen demand everywhere, a clear price negative.  As to gold (+0.25%) it continues to trade higher undaunted by any news on any front.  While silver is little changed this morning, copper (+0.7%) has now crested $5.00/lb and is pushing to the all-time highs seen back in May 2024.

Finally, the dollar is rallying this morning, higher against all its G10 counterparts by between 0.2% and 0.4%.  This looks to me like a trading correction, not a new trend.  The same price action is true in the EMG bloc with one real outlier, TRY (-4.2%) which actually traded down by as much as -10% earlier in the session (see chart below) on the news that President Erdogan had his key political rival, Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, arrested on charges of fraud and terror, while his university diploma was revoked, seemingly in an effort to prevent him from running for president in the future.  Thank goodness we never have things like that happen in this country!

Source: tradingeconomics.com

There is no data released today other than EIA oil inventories where a modest net build across products is currently expected.  So, until the Fed, I would anticipate very little net movement.  After that, it all depends.  However, Powell will need to by extremely hawkish to shake any of my view that the dollar is headed lower overall.

Good luck

Adf

Having a Fit

Posted on by

Seems Europe is having a fit
‘Cause Putin and Trump may submit
A plan for the peace
Where there’s an increase
In spending the Euros commit
 
Remarkably, though peace would seem
The basis of many a dream
Seems many despise
The fact that these guys
Don’t care Europe can’t stand this scheme

 

Here’s the thing about President Trump, you never know what he is going to do and how it is going to impact market behavior.  A case in point is the growing momentum for further peace negotiations between the US and Russia, with Ukraine basically going to be told how things are going to wind up.  On the one hand, you can understand Ukraine’s discomfort as they don’t feel like they are getting much say in the matter.  On the other hand, it seemed increasingly clear that the end game, if there is no US intervention of this nature, would be for Russia to bleed Ukraine of its fighting age population while systematically destroying its infrastructure.

The thing I find most remarkable is the number of pundits who hate this outcome despite the end result of the cessation of the fighting and destruction.  After three years of conflict, and with other nations willing to allow Ukrainians to die on the front lines while they preened about saving democracy, there was no serious push to find a solution.  I have no strong opinion on the terms that have been floated thus far, and I don’t believe rewarding a nation for aggressive action is the best outcome, but Russia has proven throughout history that they are willing to sacrifice millions of their own citizens in warfare, and the case for a Ukrainian victory seemed remote at best.  As experienced traders well understand, sometimes you have to cut your position so you can focus on something else.  Seems like a good time to cut the positions here.

Speaking of positions, let us consider what peace in Europe may mean for financial markets.  Yesterday I discussed how European NatGas prices have more than doubled since the war began.  If they return to their pre-war levels, that dramatically enhances Europe’s economic prospects, despite their ongoing climate policies.  Clearly, the FX market got that memo as the euro has rallied back to its highest level since December 2024 save for a one-day spike just after Trump’s inauguration.  In fact, it is not hard to look at the chart below and see a bottom forming in the single currency.  While the moving average I have included is only a short-term, 5-day version, you have to start somewhere.  While the fundamentals still seem to point to further downside in the single currency, between the Fed’s pause and more hawkish stance opposite the ECB’s ongoing policy ease, the medium-term picture could be far better for the Europeans.  If the war truly does end, it would likely see a significant uptick in investment and economic activity as they seek to rebuild Ukraine, and we could see substantial capital flows into the European economies.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

As well, oil prices, continue to trade near the bottom of their recent trading range as the working assumption seems to be that with a peace treaty, Russian oil would no longer be sanctioned, enhancing global supplies.  A look at the trend line in the chart below seems to indicate that is the direction of the future.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

The other remarkable thing is the decline in yields, where yesterday, despite a very hot PPI number, which followed Wednesday’s hot CPI number, Treasury yields fell back 7bps.  While there are likely some other aspects to this move, notably the ongoing story regarding DOGE and the attack on waste and fraud in the US, yesterday’s move was not indicative of fear, rather I read it as a positive sign that investors are betting on a chance that President Trump can be successful with respect to reducing the massive overspending by the government.  Clearly, this is early days regarding President Trump’s ability to get a handle on spending, and it could all blow up as legislative compromises may significantly water down any benefits, but I contend the market is showing hope right now, not fear.

And that, I would contend, is the big underlying driver of markets right now.  The prospects for peace and the potential impacts are the focus.  While tariffs are still a big deal, and yesterday’s talk about reciprocal tariffs is simply the latest in a long line of these discussions and pronouncements, the market seems to be getting tired of that conversation.  If we recap the current situation, central bank activities have lost their importance amid a huge uptick in governmental actions, both fiscal and geopolitical.  In many ways, I think this is great, the less central bank, the better.

Ok, let’s see how markets continue to absorb these daily haymakers from President Trump and the responses from other governments.  Clearly, the US equity market remains far more fixated on Trump’s actions than on higher inflation potentially forcing the Fed to raise rates.  In fact, despite the hot PPI print, the futures market has actually increased its expectation for rate cuts this year to 35bps.  That doesn’t make sense to me, but I’m just an FX poet. 

If we turn to Asian markets, Hong Kong (+3.7%) was the big winner overnight as a combination of growing expectations for more Chinese government stimulus to be announced soon, along with the ongoing tech positivity in the wake of the DeepSeek announcement got investors excited.  On the mainland, shares (CSI 300 +0.9%) were also higher, but not as frothy.  Meanwhile, the weaker dollar hindered the Nikkei (-0.8%) as the yen has gained 1.3% since the CPI data on Wednesday.  In Europe, the picture is mixed with the CAC (+0.4%) the best performer and the DAX (-0.4%) the worst performer.  Eurozone GDP surprised on the upside in Q4, growing…0.1%!! Talk about an explosive economy.  However, that was better than forecast and helped avoid a recession.  The interesting thing about European equity markets, though, is that despite a dismal economic backdrop, most major markets are trading at or near all-time highs.  Further proof that the market is not the economy.  As to US futures, ahead of this morning’s Retail Sales data, they are flat.

After several days of substantial movement in the bond market, it seems that traders have taken a long weekend given the virtual absence of movement here.  Treasury yields are unchanged on the day and European sovereign yields are higher by 1bp.  

In the commodity markets, on the day, oil prices are unchanged, although as per the above chart, it appears the trend is lower.  US NatGas (+1.8%) is rallying on forecasts for another cold spell, but European NatGas (-4.85%) continues to fall as prospects for peace indicate new supplies, or perhaps, renewed supplies.  In the metals markets, gold (+0.15%) is continuing its positive momentum but the big mover today is silver (+2.7%) which seems to be responding to some large option expirations in the SLV ETF (h/t Alyosha) which seem set to drive substantial demand for delivery.  

Finally, the dollar remains under pressure overall, although the movement has generally not been that large today.  The big outlier in the G10 is NZD (+0.9%) which has responded to the delay in the reciprocal tariff implementation until April.  Elsewhere in this bloc, gains are universal, but modest with movement between just 0.1% and 0.2%.  In the EMG bloc, the dollar is also under pressure with ZAR (+0.65%) a major gainer as precious metals continue to be in demand.  CLP (+1.15%) is also continuing to benefit from copper’s ongoing rally.  The exception to this movement has been Asia where most regional currencies are modestly softer this morning, KRW, TWD, INR, as the tariff talks still seem to be the driving force in these markets.

On the data front, we finish the week with Retail Sales (exp -0.1%, +0.3% ex autos), then IP (0.3%) and Capacity Utilization (77.7%).  Yesterday’s PPI data was several ticks hotter than forecast and seems to put paid to the idea that inflation is heading back to the Fed’s target.  This afternoon we hear from Dallas Fed president Lorrie Logan, but again, it is hard to make the case that the Fed is the driver of anything right now.

Fundamentals still point to dollar strength, I would argue, but the market is not paying attention. Rather peace and the peace dividend are now the driver in the FX markets and to me, that implies we are set to see the dollar give back some of its gains from the past 6 months.

Good luck and good weekend

Adf

Shattered His Dreams

Posted on by

The data was hot yesterday
And that put the pressure on Jay
It shattered his dreams
‘Bout all of his schemes
To help keep inflation at bay

 

By now, I am sure you are aware that the CPI data was higher than forecast, and certainly higher than would have made Chairman Powell comfortable.  The outcome, showing Headline rising to 3.0% and core rising to 3.3% with correspondingly higher monthly rises was sufficient to alter the narrative at least a little bit.  Chair Powell even mentioned it in his House testimony, noting, “We are close, but not there on inflation…. So, we want to keep policy restrictive for now.”  Essentially, the data makes clear that the Fed is not going to be cutting the Fed funds rate anytime soon.  The futures market got the message as it is now pricing just 29bps of cuts this year, with December the likely date.

It will be no surprise that the stock market’s initial response was to sell off substantially, but as per the chart below, it spent the rest of the day clawing back the losses and wound up little changed on the day.  This morning, it remains basically unchanged as well.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Treasury bonds, though, had a less fruitful session, falling (yields rising) sharply on the print, but never really regaining their footing with yields jumping almost 15bps at one point although finishing the day about 10bps higher and have given back 2bps more this morning.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Now, we all know that the Fed doesn’t target CPI, but rather PCE.  However, after this morning’s PPI data release, most economists (although not poets) will be able to reasonably accurately estimate that data point for later this month, as will the Fed.  And that number is not going to be moving closer to their 2.0% target.  What seems very clear at this point is that every Fed speaker for the time being is going to be harping on the caution with which they are going to move forward.

If we look at this from a political perspective, something which is unavoidable these days, it is important to remember that Treasury Secretary Bessent has made clear that he and the president are far more focused on the 10-year yield than on the Fed funds rate.  To that end and given the fact that all this data was from a time preceding President Trump’s inauguration, I don’t think they are too worried.  I would look for the President to continue his drive to reduce waste and fraud in the government and attack that deficit.  Certainly, the news to date is there is a great deal of both waste and fraud to reduce, and if the president is successful, I believe that will play out in significantly lower 10-year yields, if for no other reason than the deficit is reduced or closed.  This story is just beginning to be written.

Now, Putin and Trump had a call
As Trump tries to end Russia’s brawl
They’re slated to meet
So, they can complete
A treaty with Europe awol

Under any interpretation, I believe the news that Presidents Trump and Putin are going to meet in an effort to hammer out an end to the Russia/Ukraine war is good news.  Beyond the simple fact that less war is an unadulterated good, I think it is very clear that this particular war has had significant market impacts, hence our interest here.  Obviously, energy prices have been impacted, as both oil and NatGas prices are higher than they would otherwise be given the removal of some portion of Russia’s exports from the global markets and economy.  As such, the end of this conflict, with one likely consequence being Western Europe reopening themselves to Russian energy imports, is likely to see prices decline.  

This matters for more reasons than the fact it will be cheaper to fill up your tank at the gas (petrol) station, it is very likely to have a very positive impact on inflation writ large.  As you can see from the chart below, there is a very strong correlation between the price of oil and US inflation expectations.  Declining oil prices are very likely to help people perceive a less inflationary future and will reduce the rate of inflation by definition.  

Source: ISABELNET

Inflation is an insidious process, and once entrenched is very hard to reduce, just ask Chairman Powell.  I also know that there has been much scoffing at President Trump’s claims he will reduce inflation, especially with his imposition of tariffs all over the place. (It is important to understand that tariffs are not necessarily inflationary by themselves as well explained by my friend the Inflation guy in this article.). However, between his strong start on reducing government expenditures and the potential for an end to the Russia/Ukraine war leading to lower energy prices, these are longer term effects that may do just that.

Ok, let’s move on to the market activities in the wake of yesterday’s CPI and ahead of this morning’s PPI data.  As discussed above, yesterday’s US markets rebounded from their worst levels of the morning and closed modestly lower with the NASDAQ actually unchanged.  In Asia, Japanese shares (+1.3%) had a solid day as the weak yen helped things along although Chinese shares (HK -0.2%, CSI 300 -0.4%) did not fare as well on the day with tariffs still top of mind.  Elsewhere in the region, other than Korea (+1.4%) movement was mixed and modest.  In Europe, the possibility of peace breaking out in Ukraine has clearly got investors excited as both Germany (+1.5%) and France (+1.2%) are seeing strong inflows. The UK (-0.7%) however, continues to suffer from economic underperformance with no discernible benefits shown from the governments weak efforts to right the ship.  GDP was released this morning and while they avoided recession, it’s very hard to get excited over 0.1% Q/Q growth.  As to the US futures market, at this hour (7:20), they are essentially unchanged.

In the bond market, we’ve already discussed Treasury yields, but another benefit of the prospects for a Ukrainian peace is that sovereign yields have fallen substantially, between -5bps and -8bps, throughout the continent.  Once again, the impact of that phone call between Trump and Putin has been quite significant.  Consider that not only are energy prices likely to slide, but the required government spending to prosecute the war is likely to diminish as well.

In the commodity markets, it should be no surprise that oil (-1.3%) prices are sliding as are NatGas prices in Europe (TTF -7.5%) as the opportunity for cheap Russian gas to flow to Europe is once again in view.  To highlight the impact that this has had on Europe, prior to the Ukraine war and the halting of gas flows, the TTF contract hovered between €5 and €25 per MWh.  Since the war broke out, even after the initial shock, it has been between €25 and €55 per MWh.  This is all you need to know about why Europe, and Germany especially, is deindustrializing.  As to the metals markets, after a few days of consolidation, gold (+0.4%) is on the move again although it has not yet recaptured the highs seen early Tuesday morning.  Give it time.  Copper (+0.6%), too, is back on the move and indicating that economic activity is set to continue to grow.

Finally, the dollar is mixed this morning, although arguably a touch softer overall, as the Russia news has traders looking for less negativity in Europe.  So modest gains in the euro and pound, about 0.15% each is offsetting larger losses in AUD (-0.3%) and NZD (-0.6%), although given the much smaller market size of the latter two, they matter much less.  JPY (+0.4%) is rebounding after yesterday’s sharp decline on the back of the jump in Treasury yields, and it is noteworthy that CHF (+0.65%) is gaining after its CPI data showed a decline in prices last month.  In the EMG bloc, CLP (+0.7%) is stronger on that copper rally, while ZAR (+0.1%) seems to be edging higher as gold continues to perform well. MXN (-0.4%) though is still struggling with the potential negative impact of tariffs and otherwise, there is not much to report.

This morning brings PPI (exp 0.3%. 3.3% Y/Y headline; 0.3%, 3.5% Y/Y core) as well as the weekly Initial (215K) and Continuing (1880K) Claims data.  There are no Fed speakers on the docket, but at this point, I expect the Fed will be fading into the background since they are clearly on hold and President Trump commands the spotlight.  Unless the data starts to veer dramatically away from what we have seen, it appears that the market is going to continue to respond to Trumpian headlines, which of course are impossible to predict.  But remember, most of the rest of the world is still in cutting mode so the dollar should continue to hold its own.

Good luck

Adf