Tag Archives: #PCE

Quite Restrictive

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The Fed keeps on spinning the tale
They’re watching like hawks so that they’ll
Be able to jump
In case Donald Trump
Does not look like going to jail
Be able to act
And not be attacked
If ‘flation forecasts start to fail
 
Twas Bostic’s turn yesterday to
Explain that the policy skew
Is still quite restrictive
Though that’s not predictive
Of what they may finally do
 
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was the latest FOMC member to regale us with his views on current policy settings amid two speeches yesterday.  The essence of his comments lines up with what we have heard for the past two weeks; policy is sufficiently restrictive to help drive inflation down to their 2% target, but they will be vigilant if that is not the outcome.  One of the things that he mentioned, and that has been a really popular chart crime over the past few months, at least for the doves, is he discussed annualizing the most recent three months of PCE data and the most recent 6 months of PCE data as proof that they are doing a good job.  In fact, in one of his two presentations, he used the following chart:

Unquestionably, if you look at the orange line, which represents the annualized value of the past 3 months, it shows that PCE is “now” running below their target.  But let me ask you a question, looking back to H1 of 2022, when inflation was peaking.  Both the 3-month and 6-month changes were well above the annual number at the time.  Do any of you remember the focus on those short-term nonsense numbers?  Me neither.  My point is the only number that matters is the actual annual one as that is their target.  Any indication that it is flattening or turning higher, just like the CPI data did earlier this month, is going to put paid to this story.  While I have no idea where next week’s data is going to print, we must be wary of the narrative spin on the actual data.  If we know one thing about the Fed, by definition, they are reactive.  That is what following the data means.  If they were predictive, they would move before the data, but they never do that. 
 
So, all this talk of cutting before inflation gets too low is not monetary policy.  However, we cannot rule out a cut based on the political implications as they view rate cuts as a way to boost the economy and try to ensure the current president is re-elected rather than the likely Republican candidate gets back in.  Alas, for now, we will have to live with the spin.  Today we hear from two more Fed speakers, SF’s Mary Daly and Governor Michael Barr.  I suspect we will hear exactly the same message from both.  Too early for cuts, but they are ready when the time comes.
 
Meanwhile, across the pond, the preponderance of ECB speakers has been very clear that March is off the table for a rate cut but June seems to be what they see as likely.  Here, too, they see the trend as their friend, but inflation readings are still nowhere near their 2.0% target.  However, it is clear that the pain of higher rates is having a much larger impact on Europe than on the US as GDP data continues to deteriorate.  Germany is in recession and much of the rest of the continent is on its way.  The benefit for Madame Lagarde is that the Europeans did not inject nearly as much stimulus during the Covid years as the US, so it is likely the Eurozone economy is following a better-known path.  In the end, though, they are very anxious for the Fed to get started as they really want to start cutting rates, I believe, but with inflation still far above target and the Fed still holding on, they would have no rational explanation for their actions.
 
One last thing to note is CPI in Japan was released last night and it fell to 2.6% headline and 2.3% core.  Any idea that the BOJ was going to need to tighten policy in the near-term to fight too high inflation has been dissipating quickly.  It turns out that they may have been correct to leave policy unchanged as now they do not need to do anything to be in the right spot.  The market response mostly made sense as the yen weakened with the dollar now above 148, while the Nikkei rose another 1.4% and is pushing those recent 30+ year highs.  The weird thing, though, was the JGB market which saw yields rally 4bps, back to their highest level in a month.  I have been unable to find any solid explanation for this move as certainly it is not fundamental.
 
Anyway, let’s look at the rest of the overnight session to see how things are feeling as we close the week.  After a solid US equity session yesterday, most of Asia had a good go of things with rallies pretty much everywhere except China and Hong Kong.  The equity markets in both those nations have been under significant pressure lately and show no signs of turning.  While the market is not the economy, President Xi has already called for the end of short sales and is now leaning on domestic institutions to not sell at all.  With the property market already in the tank, a rapidly declining stock market is not a good look for the concept of prosperity for all.  Europe, though, is modestly higher this morning and US futures are also in the green following yesterday’s session.
 
In the bond markets, Treasury yields are little changed on the day, but remain above the 4.10% level that some are calling a key technical spot.  European sovereigns, though, are all rallying more aggressively with yields falling between 3bps and 7bps despite what are continuous calls for the ECB to maintain tight policy for longer than the market is pricing.  Perhaps investors are feeling better about inflation prospects if the ECB holds the line.
 
After a rally yesterday, oil prices are essentially unchanged this morning.  The unrest in the Red Sea continues with the Houthis firing more missiles and fewer and fewer ships willing to transit the area while yesterday’s tit-for-tat Iran-Pakistan missile attacks are now merely history.  The fact that oil remains below $74/bbl implies it is not really pricing any possibility of a larger Middle East conflict.  That seems pretty hubristic to me as the probabilities seem to be far larger than zero.  As to the metals markets, both precious and base metals are firmer this morning in sync with softer yields and a softer dollar. 
 
Speaking of the dollar, while it is ever so slightly lower on a DXY basis this morning, it continues to hold the bulk of its gains for the past month.  Versus G10 currencies, the picture is mixed with GBP (-0.2%) underperforming after absolutely abysmal Retail Sales data was released this morning, but the rest of this bloc is higher by about 0.2% or so on average.  In the EMG space, the direction is broadly for currency strength, but the movement remains modest at best, on the order of 0.1%-0.3%.  In other words, not much is going on here.
 
On the data front, yesterday brought a mixed picture with Housing data slightly better than expectations, although starts fell compared to last month.  Initial Claims printed at 187K, their lowest in a very long time, but Philly Fed was at a worse than expected -10.6, not as bad as Empire State, but still not too bullish!  Today brings Michigan Sentiment (exp 70.0) and Existing Home Sales (3.82M) as well as the above-mentioned Fed speakers.  After today, the Fed is in their quiet period, so we will have to make up our own minds as to what the data means.
 
For now, the market seems quite comfortable buying dips and as evidenced by the Fed funds futures market, is still pricing a 55% chance of a March cut.  While that probability is shrinking slowly, there are still 6 cuts priced in for the year.  At this point, my thesis of the market fighting the Fed for the first half of the year before capitulating to higher inflation prospects and higher yields amid slowing growth remains my best guess.  But that is just me.  Absent something really surprising from Daly or Barr, I suspect that there will be limited price movement going into the weekend.
 
Good luck and good weekend
Adf
 

Further Downhill

Posted on by 
The data from China is still
Desultory and likely will
Result in support
In order, quite short,
Lest Xi’s plans go further downhill

Perhaps, though, he’ll find a reprieve
If Jay and his brethren perceive
Employment is slowing
And risks are now growing
Recession they’re soon to achieve

Poor President Xi.  Well, not really, but you have to admit his plans for widespread prosperity in China have certainly not lived up to the hype lately.  Last night, PMI data was released, and like the Flash PMI data we saw last week in Europe and the US, it remains quite weak.  Specifically, Manufacturing PMI printed at 49.7, slightly better than expectations but still below the key 50.0 level.  Non-manufacturing PMI printed at 51.0, continuing its slide toward recession and indicative that there is no strong growth impulse coming from any portion of the economy there.

Remember, manufacturing remains a much larger piece of the Chinese economy (28%) than that of the US economy (11%), so weakness there is really problematic for the overall economic situation.  And while the PBOC continues to try to prevent excessive weakness in the renminbi, Chinese exporters clearly need the support of a weaker currency to thrive.  Finally, given the slowing economic situation in Europe, which is now China’s largest export market, demand for their products is simply weak.  

To date, the Chinese government has not really provided substantial support to the economy, certainly there has been no fiscal ‘bazooka,’ and monetary efforts have been at the margin.  In the current environment, it remains hard to make a case for China’s natural rebound until the rest of the global economy rebounds.  And woe betide Xi if (when) the US goes into recession.  Things there will only get worse.  The FX market is uninterested in the PBOC’s views of where USDCNY should trade, maintaining a 1.5% dollar premium vs. the daily fixing rate.  At some point, the PBOC is going to have to relent and USDCNY will go higher, in my view to 7.50 or beyond.

Speaking of recession, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q3 is at 5.90% (a remarkably high number in my view), yesterday we saw Q2 GDP revised lower to 2.1%, with the Personal Consumption component falling to 1.7%.  At the same time, Gross Domestic Income (GDI) in Q2 was released at +0.5%, substantially lower than GDP.  (GDI and GDP are supposed to measure the same thing from different sides of the equation.  GDP represents expenditures while GDI represents income.  Eventually, they must be equal, by definition, but the estimates until all the data is finally received can vary.  In fact, looking at GDI, it was negative in Q4 and Q1 and is just barely growing now.  This is another reason many are looking for a US recession soon.) 

In this vein, Richmond Fed president but non-voter, Raphael Bostic, in a speech overnight in South Africa said, “I feel policy is appropriately restrictive.  We should be cautious and patient and let restrictive policy continue to influence the economy, lest we risk tightening too much and inflicting unnecessary economic pain.  However, that does not mean I am for easing policy any time soon.”  So, this is not exactly the same message we heard from Chairman Powell last week, but the caveat of not cutting is certainly in line.  I suspect, especially if we start to see weaker labor market data, that more FOMC members are going to feel comfortable that rates have gone high enough.  At least that will be the case as long as inflation remains quiescent.  However, if it starts to pick up again, that will be a different story.

Ok, let’s look at the overnight session.  It should be no surprise, given the Chinese data, that equity markets there were underwater, with losses on the order of -0.6% in Hong Kong and on the mainland.  However, the Nikkei (+0.9%) was the star performer across all markets on the strength of strong Retail Sales data.  As to Europe, the DAX (+0.5%) is managing some gains, but the rest of the space is little changed on the day.  It seems the CPI data that has been released from Europe, showing higher prices in Germany, France and Italy despite weakening growth has raised concerns about another ECB rate hike.  As to US futures, at this hour (7:30) they are little changed to slightly higher.

Bond yields are falling today, especially in Europe where they are lower by about 5bp-6bp across the board.  It seems that there is more concern over the growth story, or lack thereof, than the inflation story right now.  In the Treasury market, yields are lower by 2bps as well, although remain well above the 4.0% level.  This has been a response to yet another weak headline labor number with yesterday’s ADP Employment figure reported at 177K.  It seems that the huge revision higher to the previous month, a 47K increase, was ignored.  However, this is setting the stage for tomorrow’s NFP, that’s for sure.

Oil prices (+0.8%) continue to rebound after another huge inventory draw last week and despite concerns over an impending recession.  Gold (+0.1%) has been performing extremely well given the dollar’s rebound, but the base metals remain recession focused, or at least focused on Chinese weakness, and are under pressure again today.

Finally, the dollar is firmer this morning, with only the yen (+0.2%) gaining in the G10 bloc as even NOK (-0.65%) is falling despite oil’s rally.  In fact, this move looks an awful lot like a risk-off move, especially when considering the rally in Treasuries, except the equity market didn’t get the memo.  In the emerging markets, the situation is similar, with many more laggards than gainers and much larger movement to the downside.  ZAR (-0.75%) is the worst performer followed by HUF (-07%) and CZK (-0.6%) although the entire EEMEA bloc is down sharply.  However, these currencies are simply showing their high beta attachment to the euro, which is lower by -0.5% this morning.  Again, given the data from Europe, this can be no surprise.

On the US data front, this morning brings the weekly Initial (exp 235K) and Continuing (1706K) Claims data as well as Personal Income (0.3%), Personal Spending (0.7%), the all-important Core PCE (0.2% M/M, 4.2% Y/Y) and finally Chicago PMI (44.2).  Yesterday’s data was soft and if that continues into today’s session, I suspect the ‘bad news is good’ theme will play out.  That should entail a further decline in yields and the dollar while equities continue higher.  However, any strength is likely to see the opposite.  Remember, too, tomorrow is the NFP report, so given the holiday weekend upcoming, it seems likely that positioning is already quite low and trading desks are thinly staffed.  In other words, liquidity could be reduced and moves more exaggerated accordingly.  However, until we see that recession and drop in inflation, my default view remains the dollar is better off than not.

Good luck

Adf

Resolutely

Posted on by 
Said Jay to the world through the Press
We’ve certainly had some success
But patience is key
As resolutely
We stop any signs of regress

Does this mean that next time we meet
Our actions will be a repeat?
The answer is no
We’re not certain, though
We could if inflation shows heat

And what about Madame Lagarde
Have she and her minions been scarred
By Europe’s recession
Or will their suppression
Of growth lead to outcomes ill-starred

By this time, you are all almost certainly aware that the Fed raised the Fed funds rate by 25bps as widely expected.  You may not be aware that the FOMC statement was virtually identical, with only a change in the description of economic growth from ‘modest’ to ‘moderate’, apparently a slight upgrade.  This was made clear when Chair Powell, at the press conference, explained the Fed staff was no longer forecasting a recession in the US.  Perhaps the following Powell quote best exemplified the outcome of the meeting, “We can afford to be a little patient, as well as resolute, as we let this unfold,” he said. “We think we’re going to need to hold, certainly, policy at restrictive levels for some time, and we’d be prepared to raise further if we think that’s appropriate.”  

So, what have we learned?  I think we can sum it up by saying nothing has changed the Fed’s mindset right now.  They continue to focus on the fact that inflation remains above their target and will continue to implement policies that they believe will address that situation. 

The thing that makes this so interesting is everybody seems to have a different interpretation of what that implies.  The two broad camps are 1) this was the last hike as inflation continues to fall and they are already hugely restrictive compared to their historical activities; and 2) given the upgrade in economic forecast, and the fact that inflation seems set to remain higher than target for a long time yet, there are more hikes to come.Given the math that goes into the CPI data, it is quite easy to forecast Y/Y CPI if you assume a particular M/M figure for the next period of time.  BofA put out a very good chart showing the potential evolution of headline CPI going forward.

The implication here is that unless the M/M data falls to zero or negative, CPI is going to start climbing again.  The Fed clearly knows this as does the market.  The only disconnect is the question of how the Fed will respond in the various cases.  Remember, too, that oil and gasoline prices have risen 13.7% and 11.2% respectively in the past month.  The idea that the energy component of CPI will do anything but rise sharply this month seems absurd.  As such, I expect that the Fed will continue to lean toward another hike going forward.

The problem they have had is that the pass-through from Fed rate hikes to the economy has been greatly diminished by their previous policy of excessive ZIRP.  It is estimated that roughly 80% of US home mortgages have fixed rates below 4%, with half at 3% or less.  At the same time, the average duration of corporate debt has lengthened to 6.4 years as the refinancing activity that occurred during the ZIRP period saw extension of tenors widespread.  As such, other than the Federal government, who managed to shorten the duration of their outstanding debt during the period of ZIRP, most borrowers are in pretty good shape and not impacted by the Fed’s policies.  In fact, they are earning much more on their cash balances.  The point is, there is a case to be made that the Fed can maintain ‘higher for longer’ for quite a while without having a significantly deleterious impact on the economy.  Perhaps the soft landing is possible after all.

Now, if they continue to hike rates, and there are a number of analysts who believe we are heading to 6% or beyond, things may change.  We are already seeing a significant diminution of demand for bank loans, which while that may not bother large corporates, implies that the SME sector is going to break first.  Does the Fed care about them?  They will only care when the Unemployment Rate rises substantially.  This comes back to why I believe that NFP is still the most important data point, regardless of the inflation discussion.  Summing it up, the Fed will see two more CPI, PCE and NFP reports before they next meet on September 20th.  It is impossible, at this time, to estimate their actions with this much more data still to be digested.  However, if my inflation view is correct, that it will remain stickily higher, I see a very good chance of at least one more Fed funds rate hike.

A quick look across the pond shows that the ECB will be making their latest rate decision this morning with the market expecting a 25bp hike.  Unlike in the US, the OIS market is pricing in one further hike after today’s and then that will be the end of the cycle.  But…can Madame Lagarde continue to tighten policy if Europe is actually in a recession?  We already know that Germany is in a recession, and forecasts for Q2 GDP in Europe, to be released next week, are at 0.3%.  The Citi Economic Surprise Index remains mired at -136.7, a level only seen during Covid and the GFC, hardly the comparisons desired.  I believe it will be much tougher for an additional rate hike by the ECB unless the data story turns around quickly, and I just don’t see that happening.  Overall, it is this dichotomy in economic activity that underlies my bullish thesis on the dollar.

At any rate, the market response to the FOMC has been one of sheer joy.  Well, that and the fact that there are still some pretty good earnings results getting released, at least relative to recent expectations, if not on a sequential basis.  But it is the former that matters as that is what gets priced into the market.  So, equity markets, after yesterday’s breather in the US where they didn’t rise sharply, are mostly higher around the world.  Both the Hang Seng and Nikkei rallied nicely, and European bourses are quite robust this morning, with many exchanges higher by > 1%.  US futures, too, are in the green, with the NASDAQ showing great signs of strength.

Meanwhile, bond yields have edge a touch lower virtually everywhere with most of Europe seeing declines between 1bp and 2bps, although Treasury yields are less than 1bp lower this morning.  There appears to be little concern that Madame Lagarde is going to spoil the party and sound uber hawkish.  Even JGB’s are a touch softer, -0.4bps, as the market prepares for tonight’s BOJ announcement.  However, there is absolutely nothing expected out of that meeting.

In the commodity space, oil (+1.1%) is higher again this morning as are gold (+0.25%) and the base metals (CU +0.1%, Al +0.6%).  The soft(no) landing scenario seems to be gaining some traction here.  Either that, or the dollar’s weakness today, which is widespread, is simply being reflected as such.

Speaking of the dollar, it is definitely on its back foot as the market is essentially saying the Fed is done.  It is softer vs. the entire G10 bloc, with NOK (+1.05%) leading the way on the back of oil, but SEK (+0.9%) and NZD (+0.7%) also rising nicely alongside the commodity space.  Even the euro, which has no commodity benefit whatsoever, is firmer this morning by 0.5% as the market awaits Madame Lagarde.

In the emerging markets, the picture is similar with almost every currency firmer vs. the buck led by HUF (+1.1%) and ZAR (+0.8%).  The rand is clearly a commodity beneficiary, while the forint has gained after a story about the ECB being willing to consider Hungarian legislation that will avoid the need to recapitalize the central bank despite its recent losses.  Meanwhile, the laggard is KRW (-0.25%) which seems to have responded to the widening interest rate differential between the US and South Korea.

On the data front, we see Q2 GDP (exp 1.8%, down from 2.0% initially reported), Durable Goods (1.3%, 0.1% ex Transport), Initial Claims (235K) and Continuing Claims (1750K) along with several other tertiary figures.  There are no Fed speakers on the docket for the next week and I suppose that given the relative calm following yesterday’s meeting, there is not a great deal of near-term concern they need to change any views.  I suspect that if tomorrow’s PCE data surprises, we could start to hear more soon.

Today, the mood is risk on and sell dollars.  Barring a remarkable surprise from Lagarde, I would not fade the move.

Good luck

Adf

Growth Vs. Shrink

Posted on by 
The data continue to show
That things ain’t so bad, don’t you know
So why do folks feel
The bad stuff is real
With growth steady, though somewhat slow?

Apparently, there is a link
Twixt wage growth and what people think
As real wages fall
They cast a great pall
O’er viewpoints on growth versus shrink

That much anticipated recession seems like it will have to wait at least another quarter or two before landing as yesterday’s 3rd revision of the GDP data jumped to 2.0% annualized, much higher than forecast, with strength continuing to be seen in both personal and government consumption.  As well, the Initial Claims data fell to 239K, far below expectations and an indication that the steady drumbeat of layoffs may just be slowing down a bit.  It should be no surprise that equity markets rallied on the news, although the NASDAQ was the definitive laggard on the day.  It was not a tech story or an AI story, but a straight up growth story getting investors back into the game.  As today is quarter end, it is also important to remember that many investment managers who had been underweight equities were actively buying to achieve the appropriate window dressing for their clients.

 

Of more interest, in my view, was the bond market response where yields exploded higher by 15bps in the 10yr as traders priced in even higher for even longer than had been seen before the release.  Here, too, the recession call remains a mirage, or at least very uncertain in the mists.  The 2yr yield rose even further, 18bps, taking the curve inversion to -103bps.  Fed funds futures are now pricing an 85% chance of a rate hike next month, up from a 70% probability prior to the release as pretty much everyone is now on board the rate hike train.

 

One of the key conundrums is the idea that the Fed continues to tighten policy while equity markets continue to rally.  Historically, rate hikes of this speed and magnitude would have seen a very different reaction, but this time that is just not the case.  For those who remain suspect of the market’s euphoria, there seem to be a number of potential time bombs littering the landscape, notably commercial real estate (CRE) and housing.  In the case of CRE, there are two concerns.  First is that there is a huge overhang of debt that needs to be rolled over in the next 18 months, >$1.5 trillion, which currently has coupons far below today’s interest rate levels.  Adding to the concern is the WFH trend and how many of these buildings, especially office properties in big cities, are not generating the same cash flows as before.  So, higher rates with lower cash flows are a recipe for default and fears are growing that there are going to be many defaults on these outstanding loans.  The fact that the small regional banks have a large proportion of their assets in the CRE class also bodes ill for their ultimate situation.  So far, we have seen several high-profile buildings sell at extremely low valuations and we have also seen landlords walk away from several buildings, with two large hotels in San Francisco the current bellwethers.

 

Turning to housing, the overriding view has been that the Fed would kill the market given that mortgage rates have risen from ~3% to ~7% alongside higher prices thus more than doubling the average monthly cost of owning a home.  However, two things have conspired to prevent a collapse in this market so far.  First, is the fact that many people who refinanced to a 3% mortgage during ZIRP are simply unwilling to move thus reducing the supply of existing homes on the market, hence keeping prices elevated.  Second is that given the structural reduction in the labor force and the increased demand for construction workers for industrial activity (which has exploded on the back of the Inflation Reduction Act), the housing market remains far more robust than would have been expected.  Add to this the fact that builders are buying down mortgage rates (paying a part of the mortgage so the rate is more like 5% than 7%) and things are working just fine.  Again, it is possible that this time bomb has been defused.

 

So why the long faces everywhere?  The best explanation I have seen, which apparently has some academic workbehind it, indicates that the evolution of real wages very accurately tracks economic sentiment.  In other words, if real wages are rising, people remain relatively bullish on the economy whereas if they are falling (and they have been negative since April 2021), people tend to have a much more dour view of things.  Politically, if real wages rise it will change the entire population’s view on everything, so if I were in office, it would be the only thing I targeted.  This also explains why inflation is such a major problem for the administration in office.

 

So, with this as background, perhaps we have a better understanding of what the prospects are for the future, or maybe a roadmap to watch for key signals.

 

Meanwhile, the data continue to come out fast and the spin doctors are working overtime.  For example, in Europe this morning, CPI printed a tick lower than forecast (5.5% vs. 5.6%) with core CPI doing the same thing (5.4% vs. 5.5%), and people are raving about the better result.  But remember, the target is 2.0%, so there is no evidence they have improved things at all, nor that they are going to be able to slow the tightening process.  However, equity markets across Europe are all higher on the day, most by more than 1%.  Go figure.  The narrative remains the key, and as long as the central banks can control the narrative and get people to believe that things are getting better, markets will respond accordingly.

 

Bond yields in Europe did not move as far as in the US yesterday but are all modestly higher this morning as well, except for Gilts +8bps on a massive Current Account deficit result generating concerns over the UK’s finances.

 

As to commodities, oil bounced back toward $70/bbl yesterday and is holding those gains, although not adding to them, but the metals markets continue to suffer with both aluminum and copper falling again today.  Gold, too, is under pressure from higher yields.  Commodities remains the place where recession is seen looming.

 

Finally, the dollar can best be described as mixed this morning, with a 50:50 split in the G10 although no movers have even made it 0.25% away from yesterday’s close.  In the emerging markets, ZAR (-1.2%) is the lone outlier, falling on the back of the metal market weakness.  However, away from the rand, a split in performance without any outliers is the best description.  However, I must point out that USDCNH, the offshore renminbi, has traded above 7.28 and continues its slow march higher (to 7.50 and beyond!)

 

On the data front, there is a bunch of stuff today starting with Personal Income (exp 0.3%) and Spending (0.2%) along with core PCE (0.3% M/M, 4.7% Y/Y) at 8:30, then Chicago PMI (43.8) and Michigan Sentiment (63.9) later in the morning.  It seems that the Fed has begun their July 4th holiday weekend already with no speakers on the calendar until the 5th.  The market remains very data focused so more strong data should see higher US yields and a firmer dollar, although it depends on which data is strong as to how equities respond.  Strong spending and income data should help, but a high surprise on PCE will not.

 

And that’s really it heading into the long weekend.  I, too, will take Monday off so no poetry until Wednesday next week, ahead of the NFP report.

 

Good luck and good weekend

Adf

On the Spot

Posted on by

This morning, it’s Core PCE

That markets are waiting to see

If it keeps on falling

More folks will be calling

For rate cuts ere end ‘Twenty-three

But what if the data is hot

That could put the Fed on the spot

Instead of a pause

That reading may cause

At least one more hike than was thought

As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, the market is awaiting some more key data points for the Fed’s calculus on inflation.  Today brings a plethora of things as follows (median expectations from Bloomberg):

  • Personal Income (exp 0.4%)
  • Personal Spending (0.5%)
  • Core PCE Deflator (0.3%, 4.6% Y/Y)
  • Durable Goods (-1.0%)
  • -ex Transport (-0.1%)
  • Michigan Sentiment (58.0)

Given the Fed’s preference for the Core PCE as their key inflation indicator, this data point is always a critical feature of the monthly slate.  However, since the FOMC Minutes were released on Wednesday, the market has already adjusted its views on the Fed’s future path.  Since the release, the market has removed another full 25bp cut from the medium-term outlook, with pricing for January 2024 rising from 4.50% to 4.735%.  It appears that the market is truly beginning to believe the Fed that it is going to remain higher for longer.

So, let’s look at the consequences of that policy stance and the market’s grudging acceptance.  Over the course of the past 3 weeks, 10-year Treasury yields have risen from 3.38% to 3.78% after giving up 3bps this morning. Meanwhile, 2-year Treasury yields have risen from 3.89% to 4.49%, increasing the curve inversion again, and highlighting the market view that a recession remains in the not-too-distant future.

Generally speaking, the combination of higher interest rates and recessionary indicators tends to undermine the equity market, but that picture is more nuanced these days as the incredibly narrow breadth of the price leaders has been able to overcome a more general malaise.  For instance, yesterday’s S&P 500 gain of 0.88% was largely the result of just three key tech names, NVDA, MSFT and AVGO, with the rest of the group mostly thrashing around.  This continues the trend of a handful of companies driving the value of the “broad” market indices, a situation that cannot go on forever, but for now, it seems fine.  Of course, the NASDAQ is even doing better since all those high performers are NASDAQ names.

However, one needs to ask, if the Fed continues to tighten policy further, and the market is now pricing a one-third probability that they hike another 25bps next month, and the result is a further slowdown in the economy, can these companies continue to perform?  Maybe they can, but history is not on their side.

Other markets, too, have been impacted by the slow realization that the Fed means what they have been saying all along, higher for longer.  While oil prices (+0.5%) are edging higher today, they have been significant underperformers along with base metals as concerns over future economic growth weigh on the sector.  Both copper and oil have been falling for the last several months as the largest importer of both, China, seems to find itself with its own economic malaise.  This is merely another input into the recession story.

Weakening growth in China and higher interest rates in the West to fight still too-high inflation do not bode well for economic activity for now.  Add to these factors the potential outcome from the debt ceiling negotiations, reduced Federal spending in the US, and you have a trifecta of reasons for a negative equity and risk market outlook.

Speaking of the debt ceiling, this morning’s headlines indicate that the two sides are getting closer, but that spending cuts are part of the process.  Naturally, this is controversial on the left side of the aisle, but the fact that not all the spending cuts included in the bill already passed by the House are going to be seen is controversial on the right side of the aisle.  If anything, this sounds like an excellent outcome, where neither side is happy, but both agree something must be done.  It is certainly no surprise to me that they are getting closer to agreement as this all has been part of the Congressional Kabuki that we regularly see on critical issues.  Remember, though, avoiding a debt default is not a huge positive sign, it is merely the absence of a negative one.

Where does this leave us?  Overall, the data remains mixed at best, with manufacturing indicators weakening, service indicators holding up, inflation remaining stickily high and the Fed continuing to pound its one main tool, the hammer of interest rate hikes on the economy.  Perhaps the most interesting data situation is that of Initial Claims, which yesterday printed at a much lower than expected 229K.  The fairly steady increases in layoffs that had been seen since the beginning of the year seem to be abating now.  In fact, the 4-week moving average of claims data has fallen back sharply to 231.8K, an indicator that the trend higher may be ending.  If this is the case, and the NFP data going forward remains robust, the Fed will have every reason to continue to tighten policy further, much further than is currently priced into the market.  As I have written in the past, I continue to believe that NFP is the most important data point.  As long as Unemployment remains low and jobs are created, the Fed will have all the cover it needs to maintain tight monetary policy.  Just be prepared for some other things to break, à la SVB and First Republic.

Finally, a word about the dollar, which while modestly softer today remains in a clear uptrend off the lows seen early in the month.  As long as the Fed maintains its current policy stance, one which is still being priced into the market, the dollar has further to rally.  Although other central banks have been tightening policy as well, notably the ECB and BOE, the Fed remains the leader of the pack.  Until the Fed finally halts, those two will lag and the dollar should remain strong.  It is only when the Fed finally reverses course, which may not be until the middle of next year on current pace, when we should see any substantial dollar weakness.  I would not hold my breath.

In the end, it all comes back to inflation.  Until the central banks believe that they have defeated inflation’s threats, barring a calamitous economic collapse, I would look for bond yields around the world to continue to drift higher, for equity markets to struggle, although further gains cannot be ruled out, and for the dollar to maintain its overall strength.

Good luck and good weekend

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Flames of Concern

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While Fed commentary is banned
Inflation has certainly fanned
The flames of concern
And soon we’ll all learn
If prices are acting as planned

Meanwhile transitory’s the word
Jay’s used to describe what’s occurred
But most people feel
Inflation is real
And denial is naught but absurd

It is CPI day in the US today and recently the results have gained nearly as much attention as the monthly payroll data.  This seems reasonable given that pretty much every other story in the press touches on the subject, although as is constantly highlighted, the Fed pays attention to PCE, not CPI.  Nonetheless, CPI is the data that is designed to try to capture the average rate of increases in price for the ordinary consumer.  As well, virtually all contracts linked to inflation are linked to CPI.  So Social Security, union wage contracts and TIPS all use CPI as their benchmark.

Of course, the reason inflation is the hot topic is because it has been so hot over the past nine months.  Consider that since Paul Volcker was Fed Chair and CPI peaked at 14.8%, in 1980, there has been a secular decline for 40 years.  Now, for the first time since 1990, we are likely to have four consecutive Y/Y CPI prints in excess of 5.0%.  Although Powell and the FOMC have been very careful to avoid defining ‘transitory’, every month that CPI (and PCE) prints at levels like this serves to strain their credibility.

This is evidenced by a survey conducted by the New York Fed itself, which yesterday showed that the median expectation for inflation in one year’s time has risen to 5.2% and in three years’ time to 4.0%.  Both of these readings are the highest in the survey’s relatively short history dating back to 2013.  But the point is, people are becoming ever more certain that prices will continue rising.  And remember, while inflation may be a monetary phenomenon, it is also very much a psychological one.  If people believe that prices will rise in the future, they are far more likely to increase their demand for things currently in order to avoid paying those future high prices.  In other words, hoarding will become far more normal and expectations for higher prices will become embedded in the collective psyche.

In fact, it is this exact situation that the Fed is desperately trying to prevent, hence the constant reminders that inflation is transitory and so behavioral changes are unnecessary.  This is what also leads to absurdities like the White House trying to explain that except for the prices of beef, pork and poultry, food prices are in line with what would be expected.  Let’s unpack that for a minute.  Beef, pork and poultry are the three main protein sources consumed in this country, if not around the world, so the fact that those have risen in price makes it hard to avoid the idea that prices are rising.  But the second half of the statement is also disingenuous, “in line with what would be expected” does not indicate prices haven’t risen, only that they haven’t risen as much as beef etc.  I’m sure that when each of you heads to the supermarket to stock up for the week, you have observed the price of almost every item is higher than it was, not only pre-Covid, but also at the beginning of the year.  Alas, at this point, there is no reason to expect inflation to slow down.

Median expectations according to Bloomberg’s survey of economists show that CPI is forecast to have risen 0.4% in August with the Y/Y increase declining to 5.3% from last month’s 5.4% reading.  Ex food and energy, the forecasts are +0.3% and 4.2% respectively.  Now, those annual numbers are 0.1% lower than the July readings, which have many economists claiming that the peak is in, and a slow reversion to the lowflation environment we experienced for the past twenty years is going to return.  Counter to that argument, though, is the idea that the economy is cyclical and that includes inflation.  As such, even if there is an ebb for now, the next cycle will likely return us to these levels once again, if not higher.  PS, if the forecasts are accurate, as I mentioned before, this will still be the fourth consecutive month of 5+% CPI, a fact which makes it much easier for the masses to believe inflation has returned.  You can see why Powell and the entire FOMC continue to harp on the transitory concept, they are desperate to prevent expectations from changing because, as we’ve discussed before, they cannot afford to raise interest rates given the amount of leverage in the system.

Keeping all this in mind, it is easy to understand why the CPI data release has gained so much in importance, even to the Fed, who ostensibly focuses on PCE.  We shall see what the data brings.

In the meantime, the markets overnight have been mostly quiet with a few outlying events.  China Evergrande, the massively indebted Chinese property company has hired two law firms with expertise in bankruptcy.  This is shaking the Chinese markets as given the massive amount of debt involved (>$300 billion of USD debt) there is grave concern a bankruptcy could have significant knock-on repercussions across all sub-prime markets.  It should be no surprise that Chinese equity markets fell last night with Shanghai (-1.4%) and the Hang Seng (-1.2%) both under continued pressure.  However, the Nikkei (+0.7%) rose to its highest level since 1990, although still well below the peak levels from the Japanese bubble of the late ‘80s.  Europe is also mixed with the DAX (+0.1%) managing to eke out some gains while the rest of the continent slides into the red (CAC -0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.3%). US futures are basically unchanged this morning as we all await the CPI data.

Interestingly, despite a lot of equity uncertainty and weakness, bonds are also under pressure with yields rising across the board.  Treasuries (+1.2bps), Bunds (+1.9bps), OATs (+1.6bps) and Gilts (+3.8bps) have all sold off, with only Gilts making some sense as UK employment data was generally better than expected and indicative of a rebound in growth.

In the commodity markets, oil (WTI + 0.6%) continues to rebound as another hurricane hits the Gulf Coast and is shutting in more production.  But metals prices are under pressure led by copper (-1.25%) and aluminum (-1.0%).

As to the dollar, mixed is the best description I can give this morning.  In the G10, AUD (-0.5%) is the laggard after RBA Governor Lowe questioned why market participants thought the RBA would be raising rates anytime soon despite potential tapering in the US and Europe.  Australia is in a very different position and unlikely to raise rates before 2024.  On the plus side, NOK (+0.4%) continues to benefit from oil’s rebound and the rest of the bloc has seen much more modest movement, less than 0.2%, in either direction.

EMG markets are a bit weaker this morning, seemingly responding to the growing risk off sentiment as we see ZAR (-0.65%) and RUB (-0.5%) both under a fair amount of pressure with a long list of currencies declining by lesser amounts.  While declining metals prices may make sense as a driver of the rand, the ruble seems to be ignoring the oil price rally, as traders await the CPI data.  On the plus side, KRW (+0.45%) was the best performer as positions locally were adjusted ahead of the upcoming holiday there.

And that’s really the story as we await the CPI release.  The dollar, while softening slightly from its best levels recently, continues to feel better rather than worse, so I suspect we could see modest further strength if CPI is on target.  However, a miss in the print can have more significant repercussions, with a high print likely to see the dollar benefit  initially.

Good luck and stay safe
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Growth’s Pace Declining

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Lagarde said, ‘what we have detected’
“More rapidly than [we] expected”
Is growth’s pace declining
And so, we’re designing
New ways for cash to be injected

The pundits were right about the ECB as they left policy unchanged but essentially promised they would be doing more in December.  In fact, Madame Lagarde emphasized that ALL their tools were available, which has been widely interpreted to mean they are considering a cut to the deposit rate as well as adding to their QE menu of APP, PEPP and TLTRO programs.  Interviewed after the meeting, Austrian central bank president, Robert Holtzmann, generally considered one of the most hawkish ECB members, confirmed that more stimulus was coming, although dismissed the idea of an inter-meeting move.  He also seemed to indicate that a further rate cut was pointless (agreed) but that they were working on even newer tools to utilize.  Meanwhile, Lagarde once again emphasized the need for more fiscal stimulus, which has been the clarion call of every central banker in the Western world.

As an aside, when considering central bank activities during the pandemic, the lesson we should have learned is; not only are they not omnipotent, neither are they independent.  The myth of central bank independence is quickly dissipating, and arguably the consequences of this process are going to be long-lasting and detrimental to us all.  The natural endgame of this sequence will be central bank financing of government spending, a situation which, historically, has resulted in the likes of; Zimbabwe, Venezuela and the Weimar Republic.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Meanwhile, this morning brought the first set of European GDP data, following yesterday’s US Q3 print.  By now, you have surely heard that the US number was the highest ever recorded, +33.1% annualized, which works out to about +7.4% rise in the quarter.  While this was slightly better than expected, it still leaves the economy about 8.7% below its pre-Covid levels.  As to Europe, France (+18.2%), Germany (+8.2%), Italy (+16.1%) and the Eurozone as a whole (+12.7%) all beat expectations.  On the surface this all sounds great.  Alas, as we have discussed numerous times in the past, GDP data is very backward looking.  As we finish the first month of Q4, with lockdowns being reimposed across most of Europe, it is abundantly clear that Q4 will not continue this trend.  Rather, the latest forecasts are for another negative quarter of growth, adding to the woes of the global economy.

Keeping yesterday’s activities in mind, it cannot be surprising that the euro was the weakest performer around.  In fact, other than NOK, which suffered from the sharp decline in oil prices, even the Turkish lira outperformed the single currency.  If the ECB is promising to open the taps even wider than they are already, the euro has further to fall.  This has been my rebuttal to the ‘dollar is going to collapse’ crowd all along; whatever you think the Fed will do, there is literally a zero probability that the ECB will not respond in kind.  Europe cannot afford for the euro to strengthen substantially, and the ECB will do everything in its power to prevent that from happening, right up to, and including, straight intervention in the FX markets should the euro trade above some fail-safe level.  As it is, we are nowhere near that situation, but just remember, the euro is capped.

Turning to markets this morning, risk appetite remains muted, at best.  Asian equity markets ignored the US rebound and sold off across the board with the Hang Seng (-1.95%) leading the way lower, but closely followed by both the Nikkei and Shanghai, at -1.5% each.  European markets are trying to make the best of the GDP data, as well as the idea that the ECB is going to offer support, but that has resulted in a lackluster performance, which is, I guess, better than a sharp decline.  The DAX (-0.4%) and FTSE 100 (-0.35%) are both under a bit more pressure than the CAC (+0.1%), but the French index is hardly inspiring.  As to US futures, the screen is dark red, with all three futures gauges down about 1.0% at this hour.  One other thing to watch here is the technical picture.  US equity markets certainly appear to have put in a short-term double top, which for the S&P 500 is at 3600.  Care must be taken as many traders will be looking to square up positions, especially given that today is month end, and a break of 3200, which, granted, is still 3% away, could well open up a much more significant correction.

Once again, bond market behavior has been out of sync with stocks as in Europe this morning we see bonds under some pressure and yields climbing about 1 basis point in most jurisdictions despite the lackluster equity performance.  And despite the virtual promise by the ECB to buy even more bonds. Treasuries, meanwhile, are unchanged this morning, but that is after a sharp price decline (yield rally) yesterday, which took the 10-year back to 0.82%.  With the US election next week, it appears there are many investors who are reducing exposures given the uncertainty of the outcome.  But, other than a strong Blue wave, where market participants will assume a massive stimulus bill and much steeper yield curve, the chance for a more normal risk-off performance in Treasuries, seems high.  After all, while growth in Q3 represented the summer reopening of the economy, we continue to hear of regional shutdowns in the US as well, which will have a detrimental impact on the numbers.

And lastly, the dollar, which today is mixed to slightly softer.  Of course, this is after a week of widespread strength.  In fact, the only G10 currency that outperformed the greenback this week is the yen, which remains a true haven in most participants’ eyes.  Today, however, we are seeing SEK (+0.4%) leading the way higher followed by GBP (+0.3%) and NOK (+0.2%).  Nokkie is consolidating its more than 3% losses this week and being helped by the fact that the oil price, while not really rallying, is not falling either.  The pound, too, looks to be a trading bounce, as it fell sharply yesterday, and traders have taken the Nationwide House price Index data (+5.8% Y/Y) as a positive that the economy there is not collapsing.  Finally, SEK seems to be benefitting from the fact that Sweden is not being impacted as severely by the second wave of the virus, and so, not forced to shut down the economy.

In the emerging markets, the picture is mixed, with about a 50:50 split in performance.  Gainers of note are ZAR (+0.7%), which seems to be a combination of trading rebound and the benefit from gold’s modest rebound, and CNY (+0.4%), which continues to power ahead as confidence grows that the Chinese economy is virtually back to where it was pre-pandemic.  On the downside, TRY (-0.5%) continues to be troubled by President Erdogan’s current belligerency to the EU and the US, as well as his unwillingness to allow the central bank to raise rates.  Meanwhile, RUB (-0.35%) is continuing its weeklong decline as, remember, Russia continues to get discussed as interfering in the US elections and may be subject to further sanctions in their wake.

Once again, we have important data this morning, led by Personal Income (exp +0.4%) and Personal Spending (+1.0%); Core PCE (1.7% Y/Y); Chicago PMI (58.0) and Michigan Sentiment (81.2).  Arguably, the PCE data is what the Fed will be watching.  It has been rising rapidly, although this month saw CPI data stall, and that is the expectation here as well.  Now, the Fed has been pretty clear that inflation will have to really pick up before they even think about thinking about raising rates, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t paying attention, nor that the market won’t respond to an awkwardly higher print.  If inflation is running hotter than expected, it has the potential to mean the Fed will be less inclined to ease further, and that is likely to help the dollar overall.  However, barring a sharp equity market decline today, and given the dollar’s strength all week, I expect we will see continued consolidation with very limited further USD strength.

Good luck, good weekend and stay safe
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More Sales Than Buys

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The virus has found a new host
As Trump has now been diagnosed
Investors reacted
And quickly transacted
More sales than buys as a riposte

While other news of some import
Explained that Lagarde’s come up short
Seems prices are static
Though she’s still dogmatic
Deflation, her ideas, will thwart

Tongues are wagging this morning after President Trump announced that he and First Lady Melania have tested positive for Covid-19.  The immediate futures market response was for a sharp sell-off, with Dow futures falling nearly 500 points (~2%) in a matter of minutes.  While they have since recouped part of those losses, they remain lower by 1.4% on the session.  SPU’s are showing a similar decline while NASDAQ futures are down more than 2.2% at this time.

For anybody who thought that the stock markets would be comfortable in the event that the White House changes hands next month, this seems to contradict that theory.  After all, what would be the concern here, other than the fact that President Trump would be incapacitated and unable to continue as president.  As vice-president Pence is a relative unknown, except to those in Indiana, investors seem to be demonstrating a concern that Mr Trump’s absence would result in less favorable economic and financial conditions.  Of course, at this time it is far too early to determine how this situation will evolve.  While the President is 74 years old, and thus squarely in the high-risk age range for the disease, he also has access to, arguably, the best medical attention in the world and will be monitored quite closely.  In the end, based on the stamina that he has shown throughout his tenure as president, I suspect he will make a full recovery.  But stranger things have happened.  It should be no shock that the other markets that reacted to the news aggressively were options markets, where implied volatility rose sharply as traders and investors realize that there is more potential for unexpected events, even before the election.

Meanwhile, away from the day’s surprising news we turn to what can only be considered the new normal news.  Specifically, the Eurozone released its inflation data for September and, lo and behold, it was even lower than quite low expectations.  Headline CPI printed at -0.3% while Core fell to a new all-time low level of 0.2%.  Now I realize that most of you are unconcerned by this as ECB President Lagarde recently explained that the ECB was likely to follow the Fed and begin allowing inflation to run above target to offset periods when it was ‘too low’.  And according to all those central bank PhD’s and their models, this will encourage businesses to borrow and invest more because they now know that rates will remain low for even longer.  The fly in this ointment is that current expectations are already for rates to remain low for, essentially, ever, and business are still not willing to expand.  While I continue to disagree with the entire inflation targeting framework, it seems it is becoming moot in Europe.  The ECB has essentially demonstrated they have exactly zero influence on CPI.  As to the market response to this news, the euro is marginally softer (-0.25%), but that was the case before the release.  Arguably, given we are looking at a risk off session overall, that has been the driver today.

Finally, let’s turn to what is upcoming this morning, the NFP report along with the rest of the day’s data.  Expectations are as follows:

Nonfarm Payrolls 875K
Private Payrolls 875K
Manufacturing Payrolls 35K
Unemployment Rate 8.2%
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% (4.8% Y/Y)
Average Weekly Hours 34.6
Participation Rate 61.9%
Factory Orders 0.9%
Michigan Sentiment 79.0

Source: Bloomberg

Once again, I will highlight that given the backward-looking nature of this data, the Initial Claims numbers seem a much more valuable indicator.  Speaking of which, yesterday saw modestly better (lower) than expected outcomes for both Initial and Continuing Claims.  Also, unlike the ECB, the Fed has a different inflation issue, although one they are certainly not willing to admit nor address at this time.  For the fifth consecutive month, Core PCE surprised to the upside, printing yesterday at 1.6% and marching ever closer to their (symmetrical) target of 2.0%.  Certainly, my personal observation on things I buy regularly at the supermarket, or when going out to eat, shows me that inflation is very real.  Perhaps one day the Fed will recognize this too.  Alas, I fear the idea of achieving a stagflationary outcome is quite real as growth seems destined to remain desultory while prices march ever onward.

A quick look at other markets shows that risk appetites are definitely waning today, which was the case even before the Trump Covid announcement.  The Asian markets that were open (Nikkei -0.7%, Australia -1.4%) were all negative and the screen is all red for Europe as well.  Right now, the DAX (-1.0%) is leading the way, but both the CAC (-0.9%) and FTSE 100 (-0.9%) are close on its heels.  It should be no surprise that bond markets have caught a bid, with 10-year Treasury yields down 1.5 basis points and similar declines throughout European markets.  In the end, though, these markets remain in very tight ranges as, while central banks seem to have little impact on the real economy or prices, they can manage their own bond markets.

Commodity prices are softer, with oil down more than $1.60/bbl or 4.5%, as both WTI and Brent Crude are back below $40/bbl.  That hardly speaks to a strong recovery.  Gold, on the other hand, has a modest bid, up 0.2%, after a more than 1% rally yesterday which took the barbarous relic back over $1900/oz.

And finally, to the dollar.  This morning the risk scenario is playing out largely as expected with the dollar stronger against almost all its counterparts in both the G10 and EMG spaces.  The only exceptions are JPY (+0.35%) which given its haven status is to be expected and GBP (+0.15%) which is a bit harder to discern.  It seems that Boris is now scheduled to sit down with EU President Ursula von der Leyen tomorrow in order to see if they can agree to some broad principles regarding the Brexit negotiations which will allow a deal to finally be agreed.  The market has taken this as quite a positive sign, and the pound was actually quite a bit higher (+0.5%) earlier in the session, although perhaps upon reflection, traders have begun to accept tomorrow’s date between the two may not solve all the problems.

As to the EMG bloc, it is essentially a clean sweep here with the dollar stronger across the board.  The biggest loser is RUB (-1.4%) which is simply a response to oil’s sharp decline.  But essentially all the markets in Asia that were open (MYR -0.3%, IDR -0.2%) fell while EEMEA is also on its back foot.  We cannot forget MXN (-0.55%), which has become, perhaps, the best risk indicator around.  It is extremely consistent with respect to its risk correlation, and likely has the highest beta to that as well.

And that’s really it for the day.  The Trump story is not going to change in the short-term, although political commentators will try to make much hay with it, and so we will simply wait for the payroll data.  But it will have to be REALLY good in order to change the risk feelings today, and I just don’t see that happening.  Look for the dollar to maintain its strength, especially vs. the pound, which I expect will close the day with losses not gains.

Good luck, good weekend and stay safe
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Leavers Cheer

Posted on by

The Governor, in his last meeting
Said data, of late, stopped retreating
There’s no reason why
We need to apply
A rate cut as my term’s completing

Yet all the news hasn’t been great
As Eurozone stats demonstrate
Plus Brexit is here
And though Leavers cheer
The impact, growth, will constipate

Yesterday saw a surprising outcome from the BOE, as the 7-2 vote to leave rates on hold was seen as quite a bit more hawkish than expected. The pound benefitted immensely, jumping a penny (0.65%) in the moments right (before) and after the announcement and has maintained those gains ever since. In fact, this morning’s UK data, showing growth in Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals, has helped it further its gains, and the pound is now higher by 0.2% this morning. (As to the ‘before’ remark; apparently, the pound jumped 15 seconds prior to the release of the data implying that there may have been a leak of the news ahead of time. Investigations are ongoing.) In the end, despite the early January comments by Carney and two of his comrades regarding the need for more stimulus, it appears the recent data was sufficient to convince them that further stimulus was just not necessary.

Of course, that pales in comparison, at least historically, with today’s activity, when at 11:00pm GMT, the UK will leave the EU. With Brexit finally completed all the attention will turn to the UK’s efforts to redefine its trading relationship with the rest of the world. In the meantime, the question at hand is whether UK growth will benefit in the short-term, or if we have already seen the release of any pent-up demand that was awaiting this event.

What we do know is that Q4 was not kind to the Continent. Both France (-0.1%) and Italy (-0.3%) saw their economies shrink unexpectedly, and though Spain (+0.5%) continues to perform reasonably well, the outcome across the entire Eurozone was the desultory result of 0.1% GDP growth in Q4, and just 1.0% for all of 2019. Compare that with the US outcome of 2.1% and it is easy to see why the euro has had so much difficulty gaining any ground. It is also easy to see why any thoughts of tighter ECB policy in the wake of their ongoing review make no sense at all. Whatever damage negative rates are doing to the Eurozone economies, especially to banks, insurance companies and pensions, the current macroeconomic playbook offers no other alternatives. Interestingly, despite the soft data, the euro has held its own, and is actually rallying slightly as I type, up 0.1% on the day.

It may not seem to make sense that we see weak Eurozone data and the euro rallies, but I think the explanation lies on the US side of the equation. The ongoing aftermath of the FOMC meeting is that analysts are becoming increasingly dovish regarding their views of future Fed activity. It seems that, upon reflection, Chairman Powell has effectively promised to ease policy further and maintain a more dovish overall policy as the Fed goes into overdrive in their attempts to achieve the elusive 2.0% inflation target. I have literally seen at least six different analyses explaining that the very modest change in the statement, combined with Powell’s press conference make it a lock that ‘lower for longer’ is going to become ‘lower forever’. Certainly the Treasury market is on board as 10-year yields have fallen to 1.55%, a more than 40bp decline this month. And this is happening while equity markets have stabilized after a few days of serious concern regarding the ongoing coronavirus issue.

Currently, the futures market is pricing for a rate cut to happen by September, but with the Fed’s policy review due to be completed in June, I would look for a cut to accompany the report as they try to goose things further.

Tacking back to the coronavirus, the data continues to get worse with nearly 10,000 confirmed cases and more than 200 deaths. The WHO finally figured out it is a global health emergency, and announced as much yesterday afternoon. But I fear that the numbers will get much worse over the next several weeks. Ultimately, the huge unknown is just how big an economic impact this will have on China, and the rest of the world. With the Chinese government continuing to delay the resumption of business, all those global supply chains are going to come under increasing pressure. Products built in China may not be showing up on your local store’s shelves for a while. The market response has been to drive the prices of most commodities lower, as China is the world’s largest commodity consumer. But Chinese stock markets have been closed since January 23, and are due to open Monday. Given the price action we have seen throughout the rest of Asia when markets reopened, I expect that we could see a significant downdraft there, at least in the morning before the government decides too big a decline is bad optics. And on the growth front, initial estimates are for Q1 GDP in China to fall to between 3.0% and 4.0%, although the longer this situation exists, the lower those estimates will fall.

Turning to this morning’s activity, we see important US data as follows:

Personal Income 0.3%
Personal Spending 0.3%
Core PCE Deflator 1.6%
Chicago PMI 48.9
Michigan Sentiment 99.1

Source: Bloomberg

Arguably, the PCE number is the most important as that is what is plugged into Fed models. Yesterday’s GDP data also produces a PCE-type deflator and it actually fell to 1.3%. If we see anything like that you can be certain that bonds will rally further, stocks will rally, and rate cut probabilities will rise. And the dollar? In that scenario, look for the dollar to fall across the board. But absent that type of data, the dollar is likely to continue to take its cues from the equity markets, which at the moment are looking at a lower opening following in Europe’s footsteps. Ultimately, if risk continues to be jettisoned, the dollar should find its footing.

Good luck and good weekend
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Mere Nonchalance

Posted on by

On Friday we learned the US
Grew faster, but not to excess
The market response
Was mere nonchalance
In stocks, but the buck did depress

This morning in Europe, however,
The outcome did not seem as clever
Growth there keeps on slowing
Thus Mario’s going
To need a new funding endeavor

If you needed a better understanding of why the dollar, despite having declined ever so modestly this morning, remains the strongest currency around, the contrasting data outcomes from Friday in the US and this morning in the Eurozone are a perfect depiction. Friday saw US GDP in Q1 rise 3.2% SAAR, significantly higher than expected, as both trade and inventory builds more than offset softer consumption. Whatever you make of the underlying pieces of the number, it remains a shining beacon relative to the rest of the G10. Proof positive of that difference was this morning’s Eurozone sentiment data, where Business Confidence fell to 0.42, its weakest showing in nearly three years while Economic Sentiment fell to 104, its sixteenth consecutive decline and weakest since September 2016.

It is extremely difficult to look at the Eurozone data and conclude that the ECB is not going to open the taps again soon. In fact, while the official line remains that no decisions have been made regarding the terms of the new TLTRO’s that are to be offered starting in June, it is increasingly clear that those terms are going to be very close to the original terms, where banks got paid to borrow money from the ECB and on-lend it to clients. The latest comment came from Finnish central bank chief Ollie Rehn where he admitted that hopes for a rebound in H2 of this year are fading fast.

With that as the backdrop, this week is setting up for the chance for some fireworks as we receive a great deal of new information on both the economic and policy fronts. In fact, let’s take a look at all the information upcoming this week right now:

Today Personal Income 0.4%
  Personal Spending 0.7%
  PCE 0.2% (1.6% Y/Y)
  Core PCE 0.1% (1.7% Y/Y)
Tuesday Employment Cost Index 0.7%
  Case-Shiller Home Prices 3.2%
  Chicago PMI 59.0
Wednesday ADP Employment 181K
  ISM Manufacturing 55.0
  ISM Prices Paid 55.4
  Construction Spending 0.2%
  FOMC Rate Decision 2.5% (unchanged)
Thursday BOE Rate Decision 0.75% (unchanged)
  Initial Claims 215K
  Unit Labor Costs 1.4%
  Nonfarm Productivity 1.2%
  Factory Orders 1.5%
Friday Nonfarm Payrolls 181K
  Private Payrolls 173K
  Manufacturing Payrolls 10K
  Unemployment Rate 3.8%
  Participation Rate 62.9%
  Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% (3.4% Y/Y)
  Average Weekly Hours 34.5
  ISM Non-Manufacturing 57.0

So, by Friday we will have heard from both the Fed and the BOE, gotten new readings on manufacturing and prices, and updated the employment situation. In addition, on Friday, we have four Fed speakers (Evans, Clarida, Williams and Bullard) as the quiet period will have ended.

Looking at this morning’s data, the PCE numbers continue to print below the Fed’s 2.0% target and despite recently rising oil prices, there is no evidence that is going to change. With the employment situation continuing its robust performance, the Fed is entirely focused on this data. As I wrote on Friday, it has become increasingly clear that the Fed’s reaction function has evolved into ‘don’t even consider raising rates until inflation is evident in the data for a number of months.’ There will be no more pre-emptive rate hikes by Jay Powell. Inflation will need to be ripping higher before they consider it. And in fact, as things progress, it is entirely possible that the Fed does cut rates despite ongoing solid GDP growth, if they feel inflation is turning lower in a more protracted manner. As of Friday, the futures market had forecast a 41% probability of a Fed rate cut by the end of 2019. In truth, I am coming around to the belief that we could see more than one cut before the year ends, especially if we see any notable slowing in the US economy. (At this point, the Fed’s only opportunity to surprise the market dovishly is if they do cut rates on Wednesday, (although in the wake of the GDP data, that seems a little aggressive.)

The real question is if the Fed turns more dovish, will that be a dollar negative. One thing for certain is that it won’t be an equity negative, and it is unlikely to have a negative impact on Treasuries either, but by rights, the dollar should probably suffer. After all, a more dovish Fed will offset the dovishness emanating from other nations.

The problem with this thesis is that it remains extremely expensive for speculators to short the dollar given the still significantly higher short-term rates in the US vs. anywhere else in the G10. And so, we are going to need to see real flows exiting the US to push the dollar lower. Either that, or a change in the narrative that the Fed, rather than being on hold, is getting set to take rates back toward zero. For now, neither of those seem very likely, and so significant dollar weakness seems off the table for the moment. As such, while it was no surprise that the dollar fell a bit on Friday as profit taking was evident after a strong run higher, the trend remains in the dollar’s favor, so hedgers need to take that into account. And for all you hedgers, given the significant reduction in volatility that we have witnessed during the past several months, options are an increasingly attractive alternative for hedging. Food for thought.

Good luck
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