Tag Archives: #Powell

Goldilocks Ain’t Dead Yet

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The Chairman said, no need to fret
Our low unemployment’s no threat
To driving up prices
And so my advice is
Relax, Goldilocks ain’t dead yet

Chairman Powell’s message yesterday was that things were pretty much as good as anyone could possibly hope. The current situation of unemployment remaining below every estimate of NAIRU while inflation remains contained is a terrific outcome. Not only that, there are virtually no forecasts for inflation to rise meaningfully beyond the 2.0% target, despite the fact that historically, unemployment levels this low have always led to sharper rises in inflation. In essence, he nearly dislocated his shoulder while patting himself on the back.

But as things stand now, he is not incorrect. Measured inflationary pressures remain muted despite consistently strong employment data. Perhaps that will change on Friday, when the September employment report is released, but consensus forecasts call for the recent trend to be maintained. Last evening’s news that Amazon was raising its minimum wage to $15/hour will almost certainly have an impact at the margin given the size of its workforce (>575,000), but the impact will be muted unless other companies feel compelled to match them, and then raise prices to cover the cost. It will take some time for that process to play out, so I imagine we won’t really know the impact until December at the earliest. In the meantime, the Goldilocks economy of modest inflation and strong growth continues apace. And with it, the Fed’s trajectory of rate hikes remains on track. The impact on the dollar should also remain on track, with the US economy clearly still outpacing those of most others around the world, and with the Fed remaining in the vanguard of tightening policy, there is no good reason for the dollar to suffer, at least in the short run.

However, that does not mean it won’t fall periodically, and today is one of those days. After a weeklong rally, the dollar appears to be consolidating those gains. The euro has been one of today’s beneficiaries as news that the Italian government is backing off its threats of destroying EU budget rules has been seen as a great relief. You may recall yesterday’s euro weakness was driven by news that the Italians would present a budget that forecast a 2.4% deficit, well above the previously agreed 1.9% target. The new government needs to spend a lot of money to cut taxes and increase benefits simultaneously. But this morning, after feeling a great deal of pressure, it seems they have backed off those deficit forecasts for 2020 and 2021, reducing those and looking to receive approval. In addition, Claudio Borghi, the man who yesterday said Italy would be better off without the euro, backed away from those comments. The upshot is that despite continued weakening PMI data (this time services data printed modestly weaker than expected across most of the Eurozone) the euro managed to rally 0.35% early on. Although in the past few minutes, it has given up those gains and is now flat on the day.

Elsewhere the picture is mixed, with the pound edging lower as ongoing Brexit concerns continue to weigh on the currency. The Tory party conference has made no headway and time is slipping away for a deal. Both Aussie and Kiwi are softer this morning as traders continue to focus on the interest rate story. Both nations have essentially promised to maintain their current interest rate regimes for at least the next year and so as the Fed continues raising rates, that interest rate differential keeps moving in the USD’s favor. It is easy to see these two currencies continuing their decline going forward.

In the emerging markets, Turkish inflation data was released at a horrific 24.5% in September, much higher than even the most bearish forecast, and TRY has fallen another 1.2% on the back of the news. Away from that, the only other currency with a significant decline is INR, which has fallen 0.65% after a large non-bank lender, IL&FS, had its entire board and management team replaced by the government as it struggles to manage its >$12 billion of debt. But away from those two, there has been only modest movement seen in the currency space.

One of the interesting things that is ongoing right now is the fact that crude oil prices have been rallying alongside the dollar’s rebound. Historically, this is an inverse relationship and given the pressure that so many emerging market economies have felt from the rising dollar already, for those that are energy importers, this pain is now being doubled. If this process continues, look for even more anxiety in some sectors and further pressure on a series of EMG currencies, particularly EEMEA, where they are net oil importers.

Keeping all this in mind, it appears that today is shaping up to be a day of consolidation, where without some significant new news, the dollar will remain in its recent trading range as we all wait for Friday’s NFP data. Speaking of data, this morning brings ADP Employment (exp 185K) and ISM Non-Manufacturing (58.0), along with speeches by Fed members Lael Brainerd, Loretta Mester and Chairman Powell again. However, there is no evidence that the Fed is prepared to change its tune. Overall, it doesn’t appear that US news is likely to move markets. So unless something changes with either Brexit or Italy, I expect a pretty dull day.

Good luck
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Too Arcane

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The Fed took the time to explain
Why ‘Neutral’ they’ll never attain
Though theories suppose
O’er that rate, growth slows
Its measurement is too arcane

If one needed proof that Fed watching was an arcane pastime, there is no need to look beyond yesterday’s activities. As universally expected, the FOMC raised the Fed funds rate by 25bps to a range of 2.00% – 2.25%. But in the accompanying statement, they left out the sentence that described their policy as ‘accommodative’. Initially this was seen as both surprising and dovish as it implied the Fed thought that rates were now neutral and therefore wouldn’t need to be raised much further. However, that was not at all their intention, as Chairman Powell made clear at the press conference. Instead, because there is an ongoing debate about where the neutral rate actually lies, he wanted to remove the concept from the Fed’s communications.

The neutral rate, or r-star (r*) is the theoretical interest rate that neither supports nor impedes growth in an economy. And while it makes a great theory, and has been a linchpin of Fed models for the past decade at least, Chairman Powell takes a more pragmatic view of things. Namely, he recognizes that since r* cannot be observed or measured in anything like real-time, it is pretty useless as a policy tool. His point in removing the accommodative language was to say that they don’t really know if current policy is accommodative or not, at least with any precision. However, given that their published forecasts, the dot plot, showed an increase in the number of FOMC members that are looking for another rate hike this year and at least three rate hikes next year, it certainly doesn’t seem the Fed believes they have reached neutral.

The market response was pretty much as you would expect it to be. When the statement was released, and initially seen as dovish, the dollar suffered, stocks rallied and Treasury prices fell in a classic risk-on move. However, once Powell started speaking and explained the rationale for the change, the market reversed those moves and the dollar actually edged higher on the day, equity markets closed lower and Treasury yields fell as bids flooded the market.

In the end, there is no indication that the Fed is slowing down its current trajectory of policy tightening. While they have explicitly recognized the potential risks due to growing trade friction, they made clear that they have not seen any evidence in the data that it was yet having an impact. And given that things remain fluid in that arena, it would be a mistake to base policy on something that may not occur. All told, if anything, I would characterize the Fed message as leaning more hawkish than dovish.

So looking beyond the Fed, we need to look at everything else that is ongoing. Remember, the trade situation remains fraught, with the US and China still at loggerheads over how to proceed, Canada unwilling to accede to US demands, and the ongoing threat of US tariffs on European auto manufacturers still in the air. As well, oil prices have been rallying lately amid the belief that increased sanctions on Iran are going to reduce global supply. There is the ongoing Brexit situation, which appears no closer to resolution, although we did have French President Macron’s refreshingly honest comments that he believes the UK should suffer greatly in the process to insure that nobody else in the EU will even consider the same rash act as leaving the bloc. And the Italian budget spectacle remains an ongoing risk within the Eurozone as failure to present an acceptable budget could well trigger another bout of fear in Italian government bonds and put pressure on the ECB to back off their plans to remove accommodation. In other words, there is still plenty to watch, although none of it has been meaningful to markets for more than a brief period yet.

Keeping all that in mind, let’s take a look at the market. As I type (which by the way is much earlier than usual as I am currently in London) the dollar is showing some modest strength with the Dollar Index up about 0.25% at this point. The thing is, there has been no additional news of note since yesterday to drive things, which implies that either a large order is going through the market, or that short dollar positions are being covered. Quite frankly, I would expect the latter reason is more compelling. But stepping back, the euro has traded within a one big figure range since last Thursday, meaning that nothing is really going on. The same is true for most of the G10, as despite both data and the Fed, it is clear very few opinions have really changed. My take is that we are going to need to see material changes in the data stream in order to alter views, and that will take time.

In the emerging markets, we have two key interest rate decisions shortly, Indonesia is forecasts to raise their base rate by 25bps to 5.75% and the Philippines are expected to raise their base rate by 50bps to 4.50%. Both nations have seen their currencies remain under pressure due to the dollar’s overall strength and their own current account deficits. They have been two of the worst three performing APAC currencies this year, with India the other member of that ignominious group. Meanwhile, rising oil prices have lately helped the Russian ruble rebound with today’s 0.2% rally adding to the nearly 7% gains seen in the past two plus weeks. And look for the Argentine peso to have a solid day today after the IMF increased its assistance to $57 billion with faster disbursement times. Otherwise, it is tough to get very excited about this bloc either.

On the data front, this morning brings the weekly Initial Claims data (exp 210K), Durable Goods (2.0%, 0.5% ex transport) and our last look at Q2 GDP (4.2%). I think tomorrow’s PCE data will be of far more interest to the markets, although a big revision in GDP could have an impact. But overall, things remain on the same general trajectory, solid US growth, slightly softer growth elsewhere, and a Federal Reserve that is continually tightening monetary policy. I still believe they will go tighter than the market has priced, and that the dollar will benefit accordingly. But for now, we remain stuck with the opposing cyclical and structural issues offsetting. It will be a little while before the outcome of that battle is determined, and in the meantime, a drifting currency market is the most likely outcome.

Good luck
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Doves Will Despise

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Come two o’clock later today
The Fed will attempt to convey
How high rates may rise
Though doves will despise
The idea that more’s on the way

Ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today, very little has happened in the FX markets, and in fact, in most markets. At this point, given the fact that the Fed remains one of the key drivers to global monetary policy, and the still significant concern that the ongoing divergence in Fed policy with that of the rest of the world can have negative consequences, pretty much every investor is awaiting the Fed statement and Chairman Powell’s press conference. It is a foregone conclusion that they will raise the Fed Funds rate by 25bps to 2.00% – 2.25%.

So the big question is just what the dot plot will look like, especially since today is the first time we will see their 2021 forecasts. Economists and analysts have slowly accepted that the Chairman is on a mission here, and that rates are going to continue to rise by 25bps every quarter at least through June 2019. That would put Fed Funds at 2.75% – 3.00%, a level that is currently seen as ‘neutral’. But what is still uncertain is how the Fed itself expects the economy to evolve beyond the end of the previous forecast period. Any indication that their models point to faster growth would be quite surprising and have a market impact. In fact, the most recent Fed forecasts have been for the economy to peak soon and begin to slow back to a 2.0% GDP growth rate by 2020. It is changes in this trajectory that will be of the most interest. That and Chairman Powell’s comments and answers at the press conference. But at this point, all we can do is wait.

Looking around the rest of the world, we see that central banks everywhere continue to have their policy dictated by the Fed. Two examples are Indonesia and the Philippines, both of whom are expected to raise rates this week (Indonesia by 25bps, Philippines by 50bps) as both of these nations continue to run current account deficits and have seen their currencies erode in value faster than any of their Asian peers other than India. The nature of these two countries, which is quite common in the emerging market sphere, is that currency weakness passes through quickly to higher inflation, and so the dollar strength that we have seen since the beginning of Q2 has already had a significant impact. It is this issue that has prompted a number of emerging market central bankers to caution Chairman Powell of the negative consequences of the current Fed policy trajectory. However, Powell has dismissed these out of hand and the Fed continues on its course.

The other notable movement in the EMG bloc was in Argentina, where the central bank president resigned after just three months on the job. Luis Caputo was both liked and respected by markets and the FX market responded by pushing the peso lower by 2.5% on the news. Of course, in the broad scheme of things, this is not very much compared to the currency’s 50% decline this year.

Pivoting to the G10, FX movement has been modest overall, with the biggest movers AUD and NZD, both of which seem to be benefitting from the recent revival in commodity prices. There has been no new Brexit news and so the pound remains relatively unscathed. Meanwhile, after Monday’s excitement in the euro following Signor Draghi’s “relatively vigorous” comments, it seems that ECB member Peter Prâet was trotted out to explain that there was no change in the committee’s view and that rates would not be rising until much later next year. Ultimately, however, the euro is essentially unchanged on the day, with the market having drawn that conclusion shortly after the comments were made.

Yesterday’s US data showed that Consumer Confidence was approaching all time highs but House prices seemed to display some weakness. This is the perfect mix for the Fed, lessening price pressures along with optimism on economic growth. I assure you this will not deter the Fed from continuing on its path. Before the FOMC meeting ends this afternoon, New Home Sales data will print, expected to be 630K, which looks right about in line with the longer term trend, albeit showing some softness from the situation earlier this year.

I see no reason to expect that the market will move significantly before the FOMC, and of course, can only watch with the rest of the market to see what actually comes from the meeting as well as what the Chairman says. Until then, look for a quiet session.

Good luck
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Just How He Feels

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On Wednesday the Chairman reveals
To all of us, just how he feels
If dovish expect
Bulls to genuflect
If hawkish, prepare for some squeals

This is an early note as I will be in transit during my normal time tomorrow.

On Friday, the dollar continued its early morning rebound and was generally firmer all day long. The worst performer was the British pound, which fell more than 1.0% after Friday’s note was sent. It seems that the Brexit story is seen as increasingly tendentious, and much of the optimism that we had seen develop during the past three weeks has dissipated. While the pound remains above its lowest levels from earlier in the month, it certainly appears that those levels, and lower ones, are within reach if there is not some new, positive news on the topic. This appears to be an enormous game of chicken, and at this point, it is not clear who is going to blink first. But every indication is that the pound’s value will remain closely tied to the perceptions of movement on a daily basis. Hedgers need to be vigilant in maintaining appropriate hedge levels as one cannot rule out a significant move in either direction depending on the next piece of news.

But away from the pound, the story was much more about lightening positions ahead of the weekend, and arguably ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. The pattern from earlier in the week; a weaker dollar along with higher equity prices around the world and higher government bond yields, was reversed in a modest way. US equity markets closed slightly softer, the dollar, net, edged higher, and 10-year Treasury yields fell 2bps.

The big question remains was the dollar’s recent weakness simply a small correction that led to the other market moves, or are we at the beginning of a new, more significant trend of dollar weakness? And there is no easy answer to that one.

Looking ahead to this week shows the following data will be released:

Tuesday Case-Shiller House Prices 6.2%
  Consumer Confidence 312.2
Wednesday New Home Sales 630K
  FOMC Decision 2.25%
Thursday Initial Claims 208K
  Goods Trade Balance -$70.6B
  Q2 GDP 4.2%
Friday PCE 0.2% (2.3% Y/Y)
  Core PCE 0.1% (2.0% Y/Y)
  Personal Income 0.4%
  Personal Spending 0.3%
  Chicago PMI 62.5
  Michigan Sentiment 100.8

So clearly, the FOMC is the big issue. It is universally expected that they will raise the Fed funds rate by 25bps to 2.25%. The real question will be with the dot plot, and the analysis as to whether the sentiment in the room is getting even more hawkish, or if the CPI data from two weeks ago was enough to take some of the edge off their collective thinking, and perhaps even change the median expectations of the path of rate hikes. I can virtually guarantee you that if the dot plot shows a lower median, even if it is because of a change by just one FOMC member, equity markets will explode higher around the world, the dollar will fall and government bond yields will rise. However, my own view is that the data since we have last heard from any Fed speaker has not been nearly soft enough to consider changing one’s view. Instead, I expect a neutral to hawkish statement, and a little pressure on equities.

But the big picture narrative does seem to be starting to change, and so any dollar benefit is likely to be short lived. Be ready to hear a great deal more about the structural deficits and how that will force the dollar lower. One last thing, tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports go into effect on Monday, which will only serve to add upward pressure to inflation data, and ultimately keep the FOMC quite vigilant. I remain committed to the idea that the cyclical factors will regain their preeminence, but it just may take a few weeks or months for that to be apparent. In the meantime, look for the dollar to slowly slide lower.

Good luck
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Investor Frustrations

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There once was a wide group of nations
Whose growth was built on weak foundations
Their policy actions
Are seen as subtractions
Increasing investor frustrations

Boy, I go away for a few days and world virtually collapses!!!

Needless to say, a lot has happened since I last wrote on Thursday, with a number of emerging market currencies and their respective equity markets really coming under pressure. It was the usual suspects; Turkey, Argentina, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Russia and China, all of whom had felt significant pressure at various times during the year. But this new wave seems a bit more stressful in that prior to the past few days, each one had experienced a problem of its own, but since Friday, markets have pummeled them all together. This appears to be the contagion that had been feared by both investors and policymakers. The thing is, the unifying theme to pretty much all these markets is the stronger dollar. As the dollar resumes its strengthening trend, both companies and governments in those nations are finding it increasingly difficult to handle their debt loads. And given the near certainty that the Fed is going to continue its steady policy tightening alongside consistently stronger US economic data, the dollar strengthening trend seems likely to remain in tact for a while yet.

Could this be one of the ‘unexpected’ consequences of ten years of QE, ZIRP and NIRP? Apparently, despite assurances from esteemed central bankers like Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi (as dovish a triumvirate as has ever been seen), there ARE negative consequences to dramatically changing the way monetary policy is handled, massively expanding balance sheets and driving real interest rates to significant negative levels. While there is no doubt that developed economy stock markets have benefitted generally, it seems like some of those risks are becoming more apparent.

These risks include things like the central bankers’ loss of control over markets. After all, markets around the world have basically danced to the tune of free money for the past decade. As that tune changes, investor behavior is sure to change as well. Another systemic risk has been the increasing inability of investors to adequately diversify their portfolios. If every market rises due to exogenous variables, like zero interest rates, then how can prudent investors manage their risk? Many took comfort in the fact that market volatility had declined so significantly, implying that systemic risk was reduced on net. However, what we have observed in 2018 is that volatility is not, in fact, dead, but had merely been anaesthetized by that free money.

The worrying thing is there is no reason to believe that this process is going to end soon. Rather, I fear that it may just be beginning. There are a significant number of excesses to wring out of the markets, and however much central bankers around the world try to prevent that from happening, they cannot hold back the tide forever. At some point, and it could be coming sooner than you think, markets are going adjust despite all the efforts of Powell, Draghi, Carney, Kuroda and their brethren. Never forget that the market is far bigger than any one nation.

We are already seeing how this can play out in some of the above-mentioned countries. Argentina, for example, has short-term interest rates of 60%, inflation of ‘only’ 31%, and therefore real interest rates are now +29%! But the economy is back in recession, having shrunk 6.7% last quarter, and the current account deficit remains a significant problem. So despite jacking rates to 60%, the currency has fallen 22% this week and 120% this year! And they are following orthodox monetary policy. Turkey, on the other hand, has been unwilling to bend to orthodoxy (when it comes to monetary policy) and has kept rates low such that real interest rates are near zero and heading negative as inflation continues its climb (17.9% in September) while rates remain on hold. So the fact that the lira is down 9% this week and 95% this year should be less surprising.

The point is that the market is losing its taste for discrimination and is beginning to treat all currencies under the rubric ‘emerging markets’ as the same. And they are selling them all. As long as the Fed continues its grind higher in rates, there is no reason to believe that this will end. And if these declines are steady, rather than sharp crashes, it will go on for a while. Chairman Powell will have no reason to stop if a few random EMG markets trend lower. If, however, the S&P 500 starts to suffer, that may be a different story, and one we will all watch with great interest!

In the meantime, turning to G10 currencies, the dollar is stronger here as well this morning, although it has fallen back from its best levels of the morning. In fact, while the pound has been consistently undermined (-0.3% today, -1.5% since Thursday) by what seems to be a worsening saga regarding Brexit, the euro has stabilized for now, although it is down about 1% since Thursday as well. Apparently, CAD is not taking the ongoing NAFTA negotiations that well, as it has fallen 2% since Thursday amid pressure on PM Trudeau to cave into US demands. The BOC meets today and while there had been previous expectations that they may raise rates, that has been pushed back to October now in view of the NAFTA process. This is despite the fact that inflation in Canada is running at 2.9%, well above target.

In the end, as long as the Fed continues along its recent path, expect market volatility to increase further, with more and more dominoes likely to fall.

As to today, the only noteworthy data is the Balance of Trade, where expectations are for a $50.3B outcome, not exactly what the president is hoping for, I’m sure. And as far as the dollar goes, there is no reason to believe that its recent strength is going to turn around anytime soon.

Good luck
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A Weakening Buck

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Said Powell, we’ve had quite some luck
Inflation’s apparently stuck
Right at two percent
So I won’t lament
If we see a weakening buck

You likely noticed the dollar’s sharp decline on Friday, which actually began shortly before Chairman Powell spoke in Jackson Hole. For that, you can thank the PBOC who reinstated their Countercyclical Factor (CCF). The CCF was the fudge the PBOC created in January of last year to help them regain control of the USDCNY fixing each day. Prior to that, the goal had been to slowly allow the FX market establish the fixing rate in their efforts to internationalize the yuan. But then, market turmoil upset the apple cart and they were no longer pleased with the yuan’s direction. In fact, that was the last time USDCNY made a move toward 7.00. But once they instituted the CCF, which is claimed to include market parameters, they essentially resumed command of the currency and at that time, simply walked it higher over the course of the ensuing year. At that point, they felt things were under control, and early this year they abandoned the CCF as unnecessary. Until Friday, when after the yuan made yet another attempt at 7.00, they decided it was time to reestablish control of the currency. And so, Friday, the yuan rallied in excess of 1.5% and has now stabilized, at least temporarily, around 6.80. With the PBOC’s thumb on the scale, I expect that we are going to see a reduction in CNY volatility, and arguably, a very mild appreciation over time.

Which leads us to discuss the other catalyst for dollar weakness on Friday, Chairman Powell’s speech. In it, he basically said that although inflation has reached their 2.0% target, there is limited reason to expect it to continue to go higher. The market’s take on those comments was that the Fed was likely to slow the trajectory of rate hikes, thereby undermining the dollar. The broad dollar index fell about 0.6% during the speech and has retained those losses since. One of the interesting things is that nobody has accused Powell of succumbing to pressure from Trump with regard to changing his tone. But economists around the world are clearly happier.

Their joy stems from the following sequence of events. In the decade since the financial crisis, when interest rates were pushed to zero or below by developed country central banks, there was a huge expansion of US dollar debt taken on by EMG countries and companies within them. As long as rates were low, and the dollar remained on the soft side, those borrowers had limited issues when it came to rolling over the debt and paying the interest. But once the Fed started to tighten policy, both raising rates and shrinking the available number of dollars in the global system, the dollar rebounded. This was a double whammy for those EMG borrowers because refinancing became more expensive on a rate basis, and it took more local currency to pay the interest, hurting their local currency cash flows as well. This has been a key underlying issue for numerous EMG nations like Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia and India. It has exacerbated their currency weakness and expanded their current account deficits.

So now, if Powell and the Fed are going to slow down their efforts on the basis of the idea that inflation is not going to continue to rise, it will reduce the pressure on all of those nations and more. Hence the joy from economists. I guess the only thing that can derail this is if inflation doesn’t actually slow down. Remember, despite the fact that the Fed follows PCE, CPI has been rising sharply lately, and they cannot ignore that fact. If that trend continues, and there is a fair chance that it will, look for PCE to follow and for Powell to have to walk back those comments. I guess we shall see.

As to the overnight session, the dollar is little changed from Friday’s closes as we begin the week leading up to the Labor Day holiday in the US. We actually saw our first substantive data release in more than a week overnight, with the German IFO index rising for the first time in nine months to a much better than expected 103.8. But the euro has been unable to take advantage of the news and is essentially unchanged on the day, along with everything else. As to the US data calendar, it remains on the quiet side, although we do see the latest reading of the aforementioned PCE data.

Tuesday Case-Shiller Home Prices 6.5%
  Goods Trade Balance -$68.6B
Wednesday Q2 GDP 2nd Est 4.0%
Thursday Initial Claims 214K
  Personal Income 0.3%
  Personal Spending 0.4%
  PCE 0.1% (2.2% Y/Y)
  Core PCE 0.2% (2.0% Y/Y)
Friday Chicago PMI 63.0
  Michigan Sentiment 95.5

I expect that unless something remarkable happens to the GDP data on Wednesday, that all eyes will be on the Income and Spending data on Thursday. But in the end, there is a new tone to the market, one which is decidedly less dollar bullish, and given the number of dollar long positions that remain in place, I expect that we may see the dollar nursing its wounds for quite a while. This is a plus for receivables hedgers, as it does appear the dollar has stopped rallying for now. Just don’t get greedy!

Good luck
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No Progress Was Made

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In Washington, talks about trade
Twixt us and the Chinese decayed
Both sides pitched their views
But couldn’t enthuse
The other. No progress was made

Today, though, the Fed Chairman Jay
Will speak and might seek to convey
How high rates may rise
Or how he’ll devise
A plan to keep prices at bay

Two key themes dominate the FX markets this morning, yesterday’s failure of low-level trade talks between the US and China to make any progress and the beginning of the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole conference.

Starting with trade, last evening, the talks ended with no progress of note. Both sides explained that they had expressed their views, but there was no indication that there was movement on either side toward a compromise. Obviously, politics will play a huge role in this process, and so it becomes extremely difficult to forecast how things will evolve. However, as the day progressed yesterday, it seemed increasingly likely that nothing beneficial would occur, and so the dollar regained its footing. In fact, it had its best day (+0.6%) since it reached its recent peak early last week and reversed course lower. Interestingly, this morning the dollar has given back some of that ground, but net remains higher than when I wrote yesterday morning. It has become clearer to me that the market presumption is more trade angst will lead to a firmer dollar, which is simply an additional catalyst for dollar strength in the near and medium term. But we will need to watch the trade situation carefully, as any indication that progress is being made is likely to result in a dollar retreat.

But that was yesterday’s story, and at this point is virtually ancient history. Today is all about the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, specifically about Chairman Powell’s speech at 10:00am EDT. Analysts and traders are waiting to hear his latest thoughts on monetary policy and how he sees it evolving. Yesterday we heard from two regional Fed presidents, Dallas’s Richard Kaplan and KC’s Esther George, both of whom said that the committee was entirely focused on its Congressional mandates of price stability and maximum employment, and that they would not be swayed by comments from the President. And incidentally, both said they see at least four more rate hikes between now and the end of next year. In fact Ms George is in the camp leaning toward six more over that time frame. Of course, this is all dependent on the evolution of the US economy. As long as it continues to grow in the current manner, it seems there will be no dissuading the Fed from removing accommodation. That said, Mr. Powell’s speech this morning is seen as critical in helping define exactly how much tightening is on the way. The funny thing about those expectations is that Powell is probably the last person who is likely to set expectations in that manner. He is all about pragmatism and reacting to the data as it evolves. Certainly, if the US economy continues to grow quickly, he will be leading the charge for higher rates. But if cracks start to show, or the trade situation causes deterioration in the economic data, I expect he will be perfectly happy to pause.

Speaking of cracks in the data, yesterday brought us New Home Sales, which disappointed by rising only 627K in July, down 1.7% from June’s level and back to the lowest since last October. This followed softer than expected Existing Home Sales data on Wednesday and seems to indicate that the housing market may have peaked for now. Given its importance to the overall economy, that is a somewhat worrying sign, especially given the state of employment here. If the best employment data in decades cannot help perk up housing, it may well be ripe for a more substantial correction. Following that line of reasoning further, it is an open question as to whether we have seen the peak in US growth and just how rapidly the situation here might change. Food for thought, but it is still early days for this idea.

A quick survey of FX market movement overnight shows that the dollar’s decline is pretty uniform. The G10 leader higher is AUD (+0.8%), which has shown a positive reaction to the changing of PM’s there, with Malcolm Turnbull out and Scott Morrison, the previous Treasurer, now the PM. But the euro and pound are both firmer by about 0.4% despite lackluster UK mortgage data and Eurozone data that merely met expectations. As I said, today’s dollar weakness appears more a response to the trade story than data.

In the EMG bloc, ZAR is firmer by 1.1% as traders decided that comments by President Trump regarding South African land reform were actually not that relevant and would not impact policy. But we have also seen CNY rocket higher by nearly 1.0%, (post trade talk reaction?), RUB jump 1.0% on the back of higher oil prices and even TRY has found its footing, at least temporarily, rising 0.4%.

But in the end, it would be surprising to see much market movement between now and Powell’s speech. Rather, I expect that the market will absorb the Durable Goods data (exp -0.5%, +0.5% ex Transport) with aplomb and be right here when he starts. After that it is dependent on what he says. If pressed, I expect that he will subtly reaffirm the Fed’s independence, talk up the economy, and indicate monetary policy is on the right trajectory for now, in other words, US rates have plenty further to rise this year and next, at least. And as rates rise, so goes the dollar.

Good luck
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Wanton Cries

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The Minutes served to reinforce
The Fed is remaining on course
Next month rates will rise
Amid wanton cries
By doves, though the hawks will endorse

One of the reasons that I have become a fan of Jerome Powell is that he is willing to speak truth to power. And even though he sits in one of the most powerful chairs in the world, I would contend that he faces a much greater power every day; a legacy of Fed Chairs who carefully cultivated the impression that they alone could turn the dials and knobs of policy properly and with precision. Reality has shown that despite excellent PR work on behalf of Fed Chairs, they were no better at forecasting the economy’s future than anyone else, and in fact, were considerably worse than numerous Wall Street analysts. This difference in approach by Powell vs. his predecessors is made crystal clear in this quote from the Minutes released yesterday afternoon: “A number of participants emphasized the considerable uncertainty in estimates of the neutral rate of interest, stemming from sources such as fiscal policy and large-scale asset purchase programs. Against this background, continuing to provide an explicit assessment of the federal funds rate relative to its neutral level could convey a false sense of precision.” [My emphasis.] It is little things like this that give me hope Chairman Powell will maintain the humility necessary to be effective in his role.

At any rate, the upshot of the Minutes was that growth was continuing apace, the trade situation, while not yet causing significant problems, has the potential to do so in the future and impact policy decisions, but raising rates in September is baked in the cake. There was some discussion of weakness in emerging markets, but this was also seen as insufficient to change the trajectory of US growth, and therefore the current policy settings. In other words, the Minutes simply reiterated what we already knew, until potential problems become real ones, Fed Funds are going higher.

It can be no surprise that the dollar gained in the wake of the release, but also no surprise that the movement has been muted. Although peak to trough, the euro fell some 0.5%, it rebounded and is now only modestly softer than yesterday’s post-Minutes closing level. As I have maintained all along, all eyes are on tomorrow’s speech by Chairman Powell, as it will give us a chance to learn something new, rather than rehash what we gleaned three weeks ago.

Surveying markets this morning, the broad dollar index is a touch higher, +0.1%, but that is a mixture of a wide array of movements by individual currencies. For example, the euro has fallen back below 1.16 this morning, also down 0.1%, despite (because of?) seemingly positive Flash PMI data, which showed the Eurozone Composite PMI rising to a less than expected 54.4. Growth estimates for Q3 remain at 0.4%, but of course annualized that number becomes just 1.6%, unimpressive when compared to the US current growth trajectory. The pound is tracking the euro as a lack of supportive news and ongoing concerns over Brexit continue to weigh on the currency. The largest G10 mover was AUD, falling 0.7% despite a lack of obvious catalysts. No data was released and no comments of substance made, although local politics has put PM Turnbull on the defensive despite continued strong performance in the Australian economy. Perhaps, Aussie’s decline is related to that.

Turning to the emerging markets, the picture is one of mostly weaker currencies with the notable exception of the Russian ruble, which gained 0.4% on the back of modest strength in oil prices. Otherwise, we have seen broad-based dollar strength here with CNY having fallen 0.4% as tariffs on an additional $16 billion of goods went into effect at midnight last night. Other EMG decliners include KRW (-0.9%); ZAR (-0.6%) and INR (-0.4%). In fact, the odd thing is that the dollar index isn’t higher than it is given the uniformity of movement.

As to this morning’s data releases, Initial Claims (exp 215K) and New Home Sales (645K) are on the docket. Yesterday’s Existing Home Sales disappointed slightly, printing at 5.34M, a 0.7% decline from last month and softer than the 5.4M expected. Not only did the number of homes sold disappoint, but also the median price fell, perhaps indicating that the housing market may well have peaked. Another data point to monitor on the economy, and more importantly as to future Fed actions.

It appears that excess long dollar positions may have finally been wrung from the market after six consecutive days of a falling dollar. With all eyes turning toward Jackson Hole tomorrow and Chairman Powell’s speech, I expect that today will continue to see consolidation, likely with modest further USD strength. But until Powell speaks, it is hard to know just how hawkish or dovish he is feeling right now. My advice is to use a day like today, when markets are quiet, to manage risks ahead of tomorrow, where the opportunity for larger movement is clear.

 

Good luck
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The Tempo of Growth

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The President keeps on complaining
That higher Fed rates are constraining
The tempo of growth
But Powell is loath
To change things til prices are waning

Over the weekend, the President registered his dismay over recent Fed policy moves, apparently calling out Chairman Powell for raising rates too swiftly. His complaints centered on the fact that the Fed’s gradual removal of policy accommodation is helping to support the dollar and has been responsible for its recent strength. Recall that since the middle of April the dollar had rallied more than 8% before its recent modest pullback. So even with a 2% decline in the past week, the dollar remains far stronger than earlier this year. And that is what has the President upset. He sees the dollar’s strength through the lens of his trade policy and it is effectively undermining the tariff process.

Now, this is not the first time that the President has complained about the strong dollar (that occurred shortly after his election in 2016), but for some reason, the market has become far more concerned this time that it may impact the Fed’s actions. Perhaps adding to that sentiment was a speech yesterday by Atlanta Fed President, Rafael Bostic, where he explicitly stated that he would not knowingly vote for rate hike that would invert the yield curve. He is now the fourth Fed President to discuss that issue, although he is the only member of that group with voting privileges this year. The point is that there has been an increase in the discussion of whether the Fed will continue on its current rate hiking path which still seems slated for a hike in both September and December of this year and three more next year. Interestingly, though the dollar responded to the discussion, Fed funds futures remain unmoved and are still pricing in the same probabilities as last week, 90% for September and 60% for December.

So the question has become, will Powell ignore the President and act as he sees fit, or will he bow to political pressure? My money, at this point, remains on Powell. There has been no indication, as yet, that the US economy is doing anything but expanding at a solid clip. And more importantly, when looking at the Fed’s dual mandate, the current issue is clearly on the stable prices side rather than the unemployment side. While the Fed has decreed PCE is the key policy data point, there can be no mistake that Powell, an experienced pragmatist, is abundantly aware that CPI is running at its hottest level in more than a decade. The point is that inflation pressures continue to build and the Fed is not likely to ignore that situation. In fact, that is why Powell’s speech on Friday in Jackson Hole is arguably the most important news for the week. Everyone is waiting to hear if he has changed his tone, let alone his tune, about the economy and the proper Fed policy going forward.

Until then, though we will have to make do with tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes, where analysts will be looking for how much the trade story impacted their deliberations, and housing data tomorrow and Thursday.

Turning to the overnight session, the dollar has continued yesterday’s weakness and is lower by a further 0.35% this morning. The movement has been fairly uniform through the G10, with all of those currencies rallying between 0.2%-0.5%. And this has been a dollar story as there has been virtually no data of note from any one of those nations. In truth, the only G10 news of any sort came from Australia, where the Minutes from the last RBA meeting highlighted that increasing trade tensions could have a negative impact on the economy and currency, and that interest rates Down Under were unlikely to move at all during the next year.

Turning to the EMG bloc, we also see generic dollar weakness with just a few outliers. The Turkish lira continues to suffer, falling just under 1% this morning despite the dollar’s overall weakness, and we saw the Korean won slide 0.5% as well. But the rule has been a softer dollar today.

Given there is no US data to be released this morning, and there are no scheduled Fed speakers, it seems that the day is likely to follow the overnight pattern of mild further dollar weakness. Of course, given the apparent catalyst for this move, and the President’s penchant for doubling down, it would not be surprising to hear more from him if he felt it could push the dollar lower. However, history has shown that political wishes are just that, and the market will respond to policy changes, not talk. So even though further commentary by President Trump could lead to modest extra dollar weakness, as long as Chairman Powell maintains his current stance, this dollar move should be faded. Hedgers, take advantage of the opportunity to add to hedges at current levels, as my sense is that nothing at the Mariner Eccles building has changed. Higher US rates are on the way.

Good luck
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Still At Its Peak

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Three central bank meetings this week
Seem unlikely, havoc to wreak
When they all adjourn
Attention will turn
To joblessness, still at its peak

In the current central bank calendric cycle, the ECB meeting was the first to be completed, and last Thursday we learned virtually nothing new about Mario Draghi’s plans. The ECB is going to reduce QE further starting in October and is due to end it completely by year end. As to interest rates, ‘through summer’ remains the watchword, with markets forecasting a 10bp rate rise in either September or October of next year.

This week brings us the other three big central bank meetings, starting with the BOJ’s announcement tomorrow evening, then the FOMC on Wednesday and finally the BOE on Thursday. Going in reverse order, the market remains convinced that Governor Carney will raise rates 25bps, with a more than 80% probability priced in by futures traders. While I think it is a mistake, it does seem increasingly likely it will be the outcome. As to the Fed, there are no expectations of any policy adjustments at this meeting, and as there is no press conference following, I expect that the statement, when released Wednesday afternoon, will have little market impact.

This takes us to tomorrow evening’s BOJ meeting, which is the only one where there seems to be any real uncertainty. Last week I discussed the questions at hand which boil down to whether or not Kuroda and company have come to believe that QQE is not only ineffective, but actually beginning to have a detrimental impact on the Japanese economy. After all, they have been at it for the better part of five years and have still had zero success in achieving their 2.0% inflation goal. The three biggest problems are that Japanese banks have seen their business models decimated by increasingly narrow lending spreads; the ETF purchase program has had an increasingly large distortive impact on the Japanese stock markets as the BOJ now owns roughly 4% of all Japanese equities; and finally, the yield curve control plan has essentially broken the JGB market as evidenced by the fact that they continue to see sessions where there are actually no trades in the 10-year JGB. (Consider what would happen if there were no trades in 10-year Treasuries one day!)

With all of this as baggage, there has been increasing discussion that the BOJ may seek to tweak the program to try to make it more effective. However, they have painted themselves into a corner because if they reduce their activity in the JGB market, the market is likely to see it as a reduced commitment to QE and it is likely to result in higher yields there, which can easily lead to two separate but related outcomes. First, USDJPY is likely to fall further, as higher JGB yields lead to more interest for Japanese investors to bring their funds home. Given the disinflationary impact of a stronger currency, this would be a disaster. And second, if there is less support for JGB’s, given the fungibility of money and the open capital markets that exist, we are likely to see yields rise in US, UK, European and other developed markets. While Chairman Powell may welcome this as it will reduce concern over the Fed inverting the yield curve, the rest of the world, which retains far easier monetary policy, is likely to be somewhat less welcoming of that outcome. And this is all based on anonymous reports that the BOJ is going to make some technical adjustments to their program, not change the nature of what they are doing. So if you are looking for some fireworks this week, the BOJ is your best bet.

However, beyond the central banks, the market will turn its attention to Friday’s employment report here in the US. Last Friday saw a robust GDP report, as widely expected, and further proof of the divergence between the US and the rest of the global economy. This Friday could simply add to that impression. Here is the full listing of this week’s data, which is quite robust:

Tuesday BOJ Rate Decision -0.10% (unchanged)
  Personal Income 0.4%
  Personal Spending 0.4%
  PCE 0.1% (2.3% Y/Y)
  Core PCE 0.1% (2.0% Y/Y)
  Case-Shiller Home Prices 6.4%
  Chicago PMI 62.0
Wednesday ADP Employment 185K
  ISM Manufacturing 59.5
  ISM Prices Paid 75.8
  FOMC Rate Decision 2.00% (unchanged)
Thursday BOE Rate Decision 0.75% (+0.25%)
  Initial Claims 221K
  Factory Orders 0.7%
Friday Nonfarm Payrolls 190K
  Private Payrolls 185K
  Manufacturing Payrolls 22K
  Unemployment Rate 3.9%
  Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% (2.7% Y/Y)
  Average Weekly Hours 34.5
  Trade Balance -$46.2B
  ISM Non-Manufacturing 58.7

So, as you can see there is much to be learned this week. With the focus on the central banks and Friday’s payroll data, don’t lose sight of tomorrow’s PCE report, because remember, that is the Fed’s go-to number on inflation. Overall, looking at forecasts, things remain remarkably strong in the US economy this long into an expansion, which is something that has many folks concerned. We also continue to see important corporate earnings releases this week for Q2, which given the high profile misses we had last week, could well impact markets beyond individual equity names.

As to the dollar through all this, it is a touch softer this morning, but remains on the strong side of its recent trading range. While I still like it higher, there is so much potential new information coming this week, it is probably wisest to remain as neutral as possible for now. For hedgers, that means the 50% rule is in effect.

Good luck
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