A Future Quite Noeth

Posted on January 10, 2025 by fxpoet

All eyes will be on NFP
As pundits are hoping to see
A modest result
That can catapult
The market to its apogee

If strong, the concern is that growth
Will strengthen and Jay will be loath
To cut rates once more
Which bulls will deplore
Implying a future quite noeth

If weak, then the problem for stocks
Is earnings will suffer a pox
So even if rates
Are cut in the States
The NASDAQ may still hit the rocks

It’s payroll day and especially after yesterday’s day of respect for the late President Carter closed equity markets in the US, investors are anxious to get back to business. Here are the latest consensus estimates for the key figures to be released

Nonfarm Payrolls	160K
Private Payrolls	135K
Manufacturing Payrolls	5K
Unemployment Rate	4.2%
Average Hourly Earnings	0.3% (4.0% Y/Y)
Average Weekly Hours	34.3
Participation Rate	62.8%
Michigan Sentiment	73.8

Source: tradingeconomics.com

As well, there will be annual revisions to the household report today, which is the portion of the process that calculates the Unemployment Rate. Next month we will see the annual revisions to the NFP, where estimates are already circulating that the number of jobs created in 2024 will be revised down by more than 1 million, nearly one-half of the claimed number (~2.2 million) created.

But ultimately, the reason this data point gets so much press is that it is half of the Fed’s mandate and so is closely watched by the FOMC as they consider any policy stance. Yesterday, St Louis Fed president Musalem became the seventh or eighth Fed speaker since the last meeting to explain that more caution was warranted as the Fed tries to reduce what they still believe is a modest tightening bias. “… [rate reductions] have to be gradual – and more gradual than I thought in September,” according to Musalem. So, caution remains the watchword for every member of the FOMC and accordingly, the market is pricing just a 5% probability of a rate cut later this month.

The thing that has really changed over the past several months is the market’s reaction function to the data. Part of this is based on the fact that it appears the Fed’s reaction function has changed a bit, and part of this is because the economic situation remains so confusing.

Regarding the Fed, given the fact that the data since they started cutting rates in September has been quite robust and given the fact they no longer have a political/partisan motive to cut rates, it strikes me it will be far harder for Powell and friends to justify further rate cuts from here. After all, if GDP is growing at 3.0% and inflation is running at 3.3%, absent all other information, that data would truthfully argue for rate hikes. However, there remains a large camp of analysts that continue to expect a significant slowdown in economic activity, with a number of well-respected voices claiming that we are already in a recession and have been in one since sometime in 2024.

My view is that this confusion remains best explained by the concept of the K-shaped recovery where a smaller portion of the population, notably those with assets and investments in the markets, have been huge beneficiaries of Fed policies as they not only have seen their portfolios climb in value, but their cash is earning a nice return. Meanwhile, a much larger percentage of the population, although a group that receives far less press from the financial reporters, continues to struggle given still rising prices and less overall opportunity for advancement. This is the genesis of the labor strife we have seen, but there are many who remain left behind. The problem for the Fed is they don’t really see this second cohort as their constituents, at least based on their policy actions.

As to today’s release, if we look at the recent Initial Claims data, it is consistent with a stronger number rather than a weaker one. However, from a market perspective, I believe that a strong NFP number, something like 200K, will see a risk sell-off as the market continues to remove pricing for any rate cuts in 2025. This will hurt stocks and likely bonds, although it will help the dollar and, surprisingly, commodities, as the market is likely to see increased demand forthcoming.

Elsewhere, aside from the wildfires in LA, which are a terrible tragedy, the other story in markets today revolves around the ongoing, slow motion disintegration of any remaining credibility in the UK government and its ability to address the many problems there. Gilt yields continue to rise sharply, although I continue to hear many rationales as to why this is NOT like the October 2022 Gilt crisis. Alas, while certainly the speed of this decline in Gilts is not quite as dramatic as we saw back then, the duration of the problem is far greater, and we have moved further now than then. As you can see from the below chart, Gilt yields have risen 110bps since the middle of September, outpacing even Treasury yields and 10yr Gilts now yield 15bps more than Treasuries.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

In fact, UK 10-year yields are the highest in the G10, although in fairness, they are not yet approaching levels like Mexico (10.6%), Brazil (14.75%) or Turkey (26.4%). Perhaps Chancellor Reeves has those targets in mind.

OK, let’s see how markets behaved in the lead-up to the data this morning. There was no joy in ~~Mudville~~ Asia last night as the Nikkei (-1.05%) slid amid new stories that the odds of a BOJ rate hike in two weeks are rising, while Chinese shares (Hang Seng -0.9%, CSI 300 -1.2%) were also under pressure amid news that the PBOC would stop buying bonds (ending QE) and additionally might be selling some to reduce liquidity in Hong Kong as they attempt to slow the decline of the renminbi. The rest of the region was similarly under pressure across the board.

In Europe, the picture is more nuanced with the DAX (+0.4%) and CAC +0.3%) showing some modest gains after slightly better than expected French IP data. However, the FTSE 100 (-0.4%) and other continental bourses (IBEX -0.9%) are not quite as positive, with the FTSE clearly feeling pressure from the overall negative sentiment on the UK, while mixed data elsewhere is undermining any investor sentiment. US futures at this hour (7:15) are pointing lower by about -0.25% across the board. Fears of a strong number?

In the bond market, Treasury yields continue to climb, as they are holding onto yesterday’s rise of 5bps and this morning we are seeing European sovereign yields all creep higher by 1bp to 2bps. JGB yields also rose 2bps overnight as part of that BOJ rate hike story. In fact, the only market that didn’t see yields rise is China, where they remain within 2bps of their recent all-time lows

In the commodity markets, oil (+3.2%) is skyrocketing as continued cold weather increases heating demand while the reduction in inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma (the main point for NYMEX contract settlements) has raised concern over available supply of crude. Meanwhile, metals prices continue to climb steadily with gold (+0.3%) continuing its run alongside silver (+0.8%) and copper (+0.45%). The demand for “stuff” remains strong as nations around the world slowly lose confidence in government bonds as an effective store of value.

Finally, the dollar is, net, little changed this morning with some gains and some losses although few large moves. On the dollar’s plus side we see KRW (-0.5%), ZAR (-0.55%) and BRL (-0.35%) while the yen and renminbi have both seen modest gains (+0.1%) on the back of the liquidity reduction stories in both nations. However, we must keep in mind the dollar, as measured by the DXY, remains above 109 and continues to strongly trend higher. My take is the highs seen in autumn 2022 are the next target, so look for the euro to sink below parity and the pound well below 1.20, probably 1.15, before too long.

There are no Fed speakers on the schedule today, although I imagine we will hear from somebody after the data since they cannot seem to shut up. However, after today, they head into their quiet period ahead of the next FOMC meeting, so until then we will need to rely on Nick Timiraos from the WSJ to understand what Powell is thinking.

While nothing is that clear, and we could easily see a weak NFP report, my take is we are far more likely to see a strong one with stocks and bonds selling off and the dollar rising further.

Good luck and good weekend

Adf

Falling Further

Posted on January 8, 2025 by fxpoet

Like a stone toward earth
The yen keeps falling further
Beware Kato-san

While we have not discussed the yen much lately, its recent weakness, in concert with the dollar’s broad strength, has begun to cause some discomfort in Japan. Last night, Japanese FinMin Katsunobu Kato explained, “We will take appropriate action if there are excessive movements in the currency market.” He went on that he is “deeply concerned” by the recent weakness, especially moves driven by those ~~evil~~ pesky speculators.

The problem, of course, is that all those expectations that the BOJ would be tightening policy to fight domestic inflation while the Fed would continue to ease policy since they “beat” inflation, with the result being the yen would regain its footing, have proven to be false hope. Instead, as you can see from the below chart, since the Fed first cut rates back in September, the yen has tumbled nearly 13% and very much looks like it is going to test the previous four-decade highs seen last summer.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Last year, the MOF/BOJ spent about $100 billion in their efforts to stem the yen’s weakness. They still have ample FX reserves to continue with that process, but ultimately, history has shown that maintaining a cap on a currency that is weakening for fundamental reasons is nigh on impossible. If a weak yen is truly seen as existential in Tokyo, then Ueda-san needs to be far more aggressive in tightening monetary policy. This is especially so given the Fed continues to back away from earlier expectations that it would be aggressively loosening policy. Now, while JGB yields have moved higher over the past several sessions, trading now at 1.18%, which is their highest level since April 2011, that is not going to be enough to stem this tide. From what I read, inflation is an issue, but not the same as it was in the US in 2022, so Ueda-san is not getting the same pressure to address it as Powell did back then. My read is the BOJ remains on hold this month and hikes rates in March while the yen continues its decline. Look for another bout of intervention when we test the 162 level, but that will not stop the rot. Nothing has changed my view of 170 or higher in USDJPY by year end.

Though Treasury yields have been rising
Most credit spreads have been downsizing
So, corporate supply
Is ever so high
An outcome that’s somewhat surprising

In the bond market, government bond yields continue to rise around the world (China excepted) as investors increase their demands in order to hold the never-ending supply of new bonds. Ironically, despite this ongoing rout in government bonds across the board, corporate debt issuance looks as though it will set new records this month. One thing to remember here is that corporates have a lot of debt coming due over the next two years as all that issuance during the ZIRP period needs to be rolled over. But the other thing to recognize is that corporate credit spreads, the amount of yield investors require to own risky corporate bonds vis-à-vis “safe” government bonds, has fallen to its lowest levels in years, and as can be seen in the chart below, the extra yield available for high-yield investors is shrinking faster than for investment grades.

Potentially, one reason for this is the dramatic increase in the amount of Private Credit, the latest investment fad where weaker credits go directly to funds designed to lend money rather than to their banks, and investors ostensibly remove one of the middlemen from the process. As such, there is less of this debt around than there otherwise might be, hence increasing demand and reducing that credit spread. But the other reason is that there continues to be a significant amount of investable assets looking for a home, and with global yields near the highest they have been in a decade or more, and with the equity market dividend yield down to just 1.27% or so, a record low, there are lots of investors who are comfortable with clipping 5% or 5.5% coupons on BBB corporate bonds.

The question I would ask is, if government bond yields continue to climb, and I see no reason for that to stop given the trend in inflation and necessary issuance, at what point are investors going to get scared? We are likely still a long way from that point, but beware if the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, follows through with his hinted views of reducing T-bill issuance and increasing coupon issuance, yields could go much higher absent the Fed implementing QE. That would cause some serious market ructions!

Ok, let’s see how things look around markets this morning after yesterday’s sell-off in the US equity markets. It seems Japanese stocks were caught between the weaker yen (generally a stock positive) and the tech sell-off (generally a stock negative) with the Nikkei closing lower by -0.25% on the session. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (-0.9%) suffered a bit more on the tech move, although Mainland shares (-0.2%) were not as badly affected. An interesting story here is that the chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities made comments at an international forum run by the Peterson Institute that really pissed off President Xi. Gao Shanwen said the quiet part out loud when he claimed that actual GDP growth in China for the past several years has likely been much closer to 2% than the 5% published. That story has been widespread in the West, although has never been given official credence. And for Xi, 2% growth is not going to get it done, what with the property bubble still imploding and consumption declining despite promises of more stimulus. Stay tuned to this story to see if we start to see more Western analysts reduce their expectations. Elsewhere in Asia, the picture was mixed with gainers (Korea, Australia, Singapore) and laggards (Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines).

In Europe, red is today’s color, led by the CAC (-1.0%) although we are seeing losses across the board. Eurozone data showed declining Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment and Industrial Sentiment all while inflation expectations remain stubbornly high. That stagflationary hint is typically not an equity market benefit so these declines should be expected. The story on the continent is not a positive one and I maintain that the ECB is going to have to cut rates more aggressively than their inflation mandate would suggest. That might support equities a bit, but it will be hell on the euro! Finally, US futures are a touch softer (-0.2%) at this hour (7:05) although they were higher most of the overnight session before this.

As mentioned above, bond yields are higher with Gilts (+9bps) leading the way as not only is the economy suffering from some very poor policy decisions by the Starmer government, but it seems that the ongoing political crisis regarding grooming gangs has investors shying away. But yields continue to rise across the board with continental yields up between 3bps and 6bps, Treasury yields higher by another 1bp this morning after a 10bp rise in the previous two sessions, and JGB yields, as mentioned, higher by 5bps. This trend is very clear!

In the commodity markets, oil (+0.5%) keeps on keeping on, as API data showed a greater than 4mm barrel draw on inventories, far more than expected and indicating a reduced supply around. Cold temperatures are keeping NatGas (+5.0%) firm as well. In the metals markets, both precious and base are under a touch of pressure this morning, down less than -0.2%, largely in response to the dollar’s rebound.

Speaking of the dollar, it is higher against all its counterparts this morning with the pound (-1.2%) the G10 laggard although weakness on the order of 0.5% is pretty common this morning. In the EMG bloc, ZAR (-1.5%) is the worst performer, after weaker than expected PMI data called into question the economic path forward. But here, too, we are seeing weakness like MXN (-0.9%), CLP (-0.8%), PLN (-0.8%) and KRW (-0.5%). I would be remiss to ignore CNY (-0.25%), which is trading below (dollar above) 7.3600 in the offshore market, and is now 2.4% weaker than last night’s fixing rate. This is also the weakest the renminbi has been since it touched this level back in September and then November 2007 prior to that. Those Chinese problems are coming home to roost for President Xi.

On the data front, ADP Employment (exp 140K) leads the day followed by Initial (218K) and Continuing (1870K) Claims. These are being released this morning because of tomorrow’s quasi holiday regarding the late President Carter, when US markets will be closed. This afternoon, the FOMC Minutes arrive and will be scrutinized closely to see just how hawkish they have become. We also hear from Governor Waller this morning with caution being the watchword from virtually every Fed speaker of late.

It is all playing out like I anticipated, with the ISM data showing strength yesterday, not just in the headline number, but also in the Prices Paid number. The Fed will have no chance to cut rates again, and I look for the dollar to continue to rise.

Good luck

Adf

Havoc the Dollar Will Wreak

Posted on January 3, 2025 by fxpoet

Apparently, President Xi
Is starting to listen to me 🤣
His currency’s falling
As he stops forestalling
The weakness in his renminbi

But it’s not just yuan that is weak
The havoc the dollar will wreak
Is set to keep growing
As funds keep on flowing
To US investments, still chic

It seems that one of President Xi Jinping’s New Year’s resolutions was to finally allow the renminbi to resume its longer-term decline. While 7.30 has been the line in the sand for a while, as can be seen from the first chart below, suddenly, as the calendar page turned to 2025, it appears that the PBOC is going to allow for the renminbi to weaken further. Thus far, the PBOC has been adamant about fixing the Chinese currency at levels much stronger than anyone wants to pay for it, and even last night that was the case, with a fixing rate of 7.1878. However, while the onshore market must trade within +/- 2% of that fixing rate, no such restriction limits the offshore market, and this morning, the offshore renminbi is trading 2.3% weaker than the fixing, above 7.35 to the dollar.

Much has been made of the “chess” moves that are ongoing between the US and China regarding currency policy with many pundits blankly claiming that if Trump is to impose the threatened tariffs, the renminbi will simply weaken to offset them. However, while I do believe the CNY has much further to fall, that is not the driving case I see. Rather, Xi’s problem is that his economy is not in nearly as good condition as he needs it to be and confidence in the consumer sector continues to wane. This is largely a result of the ongoing destruction of the property bubble that was blown for decades.

Remember, Chinese investors have tied up significant personal wealth in second and third homes as stores of value. This was encouraged as cities could sell property to developers, get paid a bunch to help finance their operations, and since demand was so high, prices kept rising so everyone was happy. Alas, as with all bubbles (I’m looking at you, too, NASDAQ) eventually the air comes out. For the past three years the Chinese have been trying to deal with this collapsing property market, but house prices continue to decline thus reducing investor wealth and confidence. I read that there are an estimated 80 million empty homes that have been built over the past decades and are now in disrepair in the countryside. These are the ghost cities that were all part of the Chinese growth miracle, but in fact were simply massive malinvestment.

While the prescription for China has long been to increase its consumer sector of the economy, Xi and his minions at the central committee have no idea how to do that (given they are communist, this is not that surprising) and so continue to support the means of production. The problem is they have now seemingly gone too far in that space as well with not merely the Western world, but also much of the developing world starting to push back on all the excess stuff that is coming from China.

Xi’s other problem is that as he rails against the dollar and seeks others to use the renminbi in their trade, if the currency starts to fall sharply, that will be a difficult ask. Given the US FX policy remains benign neglect, it is entirely upon China to solve their own problems. While it is unlikely to happen in a big devaluation a la August 2015, weakness is the trend to bet here this year.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Away from that news, though, the year is starting off in a fairly modestly. Most of the world’s focus is on the upcoming Trump inauguration as well as the political machinations that will begin today as Trump’s Cabinet nominees start to go through their paces in front of the Senate. New Year’s Eve’s horrifying terrorist attack in New Orleans has just upped the ante with respect to Trump getting his picks through the process.

So, let’s review the overnight market activity to get a sense of what today could bring. The first day of the US trading year resulted in modest declines across the board in equities, although as I type (7:30), they appear to be retracing those losses and are slightly higher. The bigger news was from Asia where both the Nikkei (-1.0%) and CSI 300 (-1.2%) showed weakness with the former feeling the pain of some profit taking after gains last week, although Chinese shares seem to be succumbing to the troubles I have described above. Elsewhere in the region there was no consistency with gainers (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea and Australia) and losers (India, New Zealand, Malaysia) with other exchanges little changed. In Europe this morning, there is more red than green with the CAC (-0.8%) the biggest laggard amid concerns over the fiscal situation in France. But the DAX (-0.35%) and FTSE MIB (-0.45%) are also lagging with only Spain’s IBEX (0.0%) bucking the trend.

In the bond market, Treasury yields have slipped 2bps this morning, but remain above 4.50%, something that continues to vex Chairman Powell as he and the Fed seemed certain that by cutting the Fed funds rate, he would drive the entire yield curve lower. I wonder if he will learn this lesson about the relation between a made-up rate (Fed funds) and market rates (bond yields) anytime soon. In Europe, French yields are 2bps higher, widening their spread vs. German bunds and perhaps more remarkably, at least from a nominal perspective, well above Greek government bond yields now! (Remember, there are far fewer GGB’s around than OAT’s so there is a scarcity bid there). Certainly, Madame Lagarde must be getting a bit concerned over her native nation’s profligacy and I suspect that the fiscal ‘need’ for lower Eurozone interest rates is one of the features of the discussion regarding the ECB’s future path (lower). As to JGB’s, they are unchanged, sitting at 1.07% and showing no sign of rising anytime soon. One last thing, Chinese 10yr bonds now yield a new record low of 1.61%, 2bps lower on the day and pretty convincing evidence that not all is well in the Middle Kingdom’s economy.

On the commodity front, oil (-0.2%) is consolidating yesterday’s strong gains which were ostensibly based on the idea that President Xi will successfully implement more stimulus and aid growth in China. History shows otherwise, but we shall see. Gold (-0.1%) is also consolidating yesterday’s strong gains as it appears there has been renewed central bank buying activity to start the year. The other metals also benefitted yesterday with silver (+0.8%) continuing this morning.

Finally, the dollar is retracing some of yesterday’s gains but remains much stronger than we saw just last week, and certainly since the last time I wrote. Looking at the Dollar Index, it is hovering near 109 this morning, having traded well above that yesterday afternoon. The next obvious technical target is 112, about 3% higher and there are now many calls for a test of the 2002 highs of 120. I assure you, if the DXY gets to those levels, EMG currencies are going to come under a great deal of pressure. As an example, we already see several EMG currencies (CLP, BRL) trading at or near all-time lows (dollar highs) and there is nothing to think this will change soon. As well, check out the euro at 1.03 this morning, which while 0.3% higher on the session, appears as though it could well test those October 2022 lows (dollar highs) sooner rather than later, especially if the ECB continues to lean more dovish than the Fed. If you are a receivables hedger, currency puts seem like a pretty good idea these days.

On the data front, ISM Manufacturing (exp 48.4) and Prices Paid (51.7) are all we have today and late this morning Richmond Fed president Barkin speaks. Interestingly, tomorrow evening and Sunday we hear from SF Fed President Daly and tomorrow evening Governor Kugler will be joining Daly. I guess they can’t go but so long without hearing their voices in the echo chamber!

There is nothing to suggest that the dollar, while modestly softer today, is set to turn around soon. Keep that in mind.

Good luck and good weekend

Adf

A New Denouement

Posted on December 11, 2024 by fxpoet

The story is that the Chinese
Will speed up their policy ease
Creating for Yuan
A new denouement
Of currency weakness disease

Their problem is that in the past
That weakness could happen too fast
So, how far will Xi
Be willing to see
Renminbi decline at long last?

As we await the US CPI data this morning, the story du jour in markets revolves around the Chinese renminbi and whether President Xi will allow, or encourage, the PBOC to weaken the currency. Strategically, Xi has made a big deal to the rest of the world that the Chinese currency will remain strong and stable as he seeks other nations to increase their use of the renminbi in commercial transactions as well as a store of value. I believe part of this is a legitimate goal but that there is also a significant fear underlying these actions as history has shown the Chinese people will flee the currency if it starts to weaken too quickly. It is the latter issue that has been the primary driver of the PBOC’s efforts to continuously fix the renminbi at stronger than market levels.

This process worked well enough for the past four years as the Biden administration, while certainly not friendly to China, was not aggressively attacking the nation’s efforts to expand its influence. However, that situation is about to change with the Trump administration and as Mr Trump has already threatened numerous new tariffs on various parts of China’s production economy, Xi’s calculus must change. This puts Xi in a difficult situation; allow the currency to weaken more aggressively to offset the impact of any tariffs and suffer through capital flight or maintain the renminbi’s value and see exports decline along with overall economic activity. It is easy to see in the chart below when the story about allowing a weaker currency hit the tape. However, there is not nearly enough information to take a longer-term view on the subject.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

One other thing to remember is that Chinese interest rates are continuing to decline with 10-year yields trading to yet another new low last night at 1.88%. As the spread between US and Chinese yields continues to widen, by itself that will put pressure on the renminbi to decline. The problem for Xi is that no matter the control the PBOC has over the FX markets in China, now that there is an offshore market, if the Chinese people become concerned over the value of the renminbi, it has the ability to decline far more quickly than the government would want to allow.

For those of you with Chinese assets on your balance sheet or Chinese denominated revenues, I would be looking to maximize my hedges for now. As an aside, there were a number of forecast changes by major banks overnight with many calls for USDCNY to reach 7.50 or higher by the end of next year now.

The market’s convinced
A rate hike is on the way
Why won’t the yen rise?

The other story overnight focused on Japan, or more precisely the BOJ meeting to be held in one week’s time. It seems that there is a lot of dissent amongst the analyst community regarding whether or not the BOJ will hike rates. As an example of how thin all the analyst gruel really is, one of the key rationales for the belief in a rate hike was that last week, Toyoaki Nakamura, perceived as the most dovish BOJ board member, indicated he didn’t object to a rate hike, although wanted to see more data before declaring one was appropriate for December. However, just last night the BOJ added a speech and press briefing to their calendar for Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino right before the January meeting. This has the punditry now expecting the BOJ to wait until then rather than move next week. The below chart shows the change in the market’s expectations for a rate hike over the past week.

As I said, the tea leaves that the punditry are reading really don’t say very much at all. Perhaps we can look at the economic data to get a sense. Over the past month, we have seen CPI for both the nation and Tokyo print higher than forecast and continue to slowly climb. As well, PPI printed higher and GDP continues to grow, albeit at a modest pace. Of greater concern is that earnings data is lagging the CPI data.

A look at the FX market would indicate that traders are losing their taste for a rate hike next week, at least as evidenced by the yen’s recent weakness. As you can see in the past week, it has slipped nearly 2%, hardly a sign that higher Japanese rates are expected. But something that is not getting much press is the potential Trump impact, where the incoming president would like to see the yen, specifically, strengthen as it is truly historically undervalued. FWIW, which is probably not that much, I am in the rate hike camp for next week and expect the yen will find some support soon.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Ok, enough Asian currency talk. Let’s see how everything else behaved ahead of this morning’s data. Yesterday’s modest US equity declines were followed by virtually no movement in Japanese shares although most of the rest of Asia followed the US lower. Hong Kong (-0.8%) and Taiwan (-1.0%) were the worst performers and the one outlier the other way was Korea (+1.0%) as the KOSPI continues to recoup the losses made after the martial law fiasco. European bourses are mostly little changed on the day with Spain’s IBEX (-1.1%) the lone exception which has been negatively impacted by Q3 results from Inditex (the parent company of Zara). As to US futures, at this hour (7:25) they are little changed.

In the bond market, yields continue to edge higher in Treasuries (+2bps) and European sovereigns with gains on the order of 1bp to 2bps across the board. While there is some discussion regarding fiscal questions in Europe, ultimately, nothing has broken the connection between US and European yields, and I would contend they are all awaiting this morning’s CPI.

In the commodity markets, oil (+1.4%) is rebounding although remains below $70/bbl, which seems to be a trading pivot for now. The China stimulus story remains the key in the market with a growing belief that if China does successfully stimulate, oil demand will increase. Meanwhile in the metals markets, gold is unchanged this morning after another nice rally yesterday while both silver and copper are under modest pressure. I would contend, however, that the trend for all metals remains slightly upward.

Finally, the dollar is firmer against virtually all its counterparts this morning with most G10 currencies softer on the order of -0.3% or so although CAD and CHF are little changed on the session. In the EMG bloc, KRW (+0.3%) is rebounding alongside the KOSPI as the excesses from the martial law story last week continue to be unwound, but elsewhere in the bloc, modest weakness, between -0.2% and -0.4%, is the rule. However, this is all dollar focused today.

On the data front, it is worth noting that yesterday’s NFIB Small Business Optimism Index shot higher in November in the wake of the election results, heading back toward its long-term average just above 100. As to this morning, forecasts for Headline (exp 0.3%, 2.7% Y/Y) and Core (0.3%, 3.3% Y/Y) CPI continue to indicate that the Fed may be overstating the case in their belief that inflation pressures are ebbing. Rather, I continue to believe that we have seen the bottom in the rate of inflation and a gradual increase is in our future. Two other things of note are the BOC rate decision (exp 50bps cut) this morning and then the Brazilian Central Bank rate decision (exp 75bp HIKE) this afternoon. The latter is clearly an attempt to rein in the BRL’s recent dramatic decline.

With no Fed speakers, if the data this morning is significantly different than expectations, I would look for the Fed Whisperer, Nick Timiraos, to publish something before the end of the day in order to get the Fed’s latest views into the market. Absent that, nothing has gotten in the way of the higher dollar at this stage so stay sharp.

Good luck

Adf

Just Won’t Evanesce

Posted on December 10, 2024 by fxpoet

The RBA left rates on hold
And sounded quite dovish, all told
Meanwhile in Brazil
Old Lula is ill
With something much worse than a cold

In Syria, things are a mess
In Taipei they’re feeling some stress
With all this unfolding
It’s no shock beholding
Risk assets just won’t evanesce

Risk is the topic du jour as pretty much everywhere one looks around the world, things are afoot that can inculcate fear (and loathing) rather than embrace those animal spirits. Perhaps the least frightful, but most directly impactful regarding markets, was the RBA meeting last night at which the committee left rates on hold, as universally expected, but appeared to turn (finally) to the dovish side of the ledger. The policy statement explained, “Some of the upside risks to inflation appear to have eased and while the level of aggregate demand still appears to be above the economy’s supply capacity, that gap continues to close. The board is gaining some confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target.” However, the proof is in the pudding and a quick look at the AUD (-0.7%) shows that the market has come to believe the RBA is finally joining the central bank rate cutting party.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

The trend seems pretty clear and it is hard to make a case for a reversal absent a massive spike in inflation Down Under forcing the RBA to change direction or something coming from the US focusing on weakening the USD, but given nothing like that seems likely until Mr Trump is officially in office, I am concerned that the Aussie dog will live up to its nickname and make new lows going forward, perhaps testing 0.6000 before this is over.

Speaking of currencies under pressure, elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere we find the Brazilian real which has fallen to new historic lows, with the dollar now trading above 6.08. For those of you who hate to pay away the points in USDBRL to hedge your balance sheet assets, the reason that you need to do it is very evident from the chart below.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

While there were several short-term dips in the dollar during the past year, the spot rate (at which you remeasure your balance sheet each month) moved from 4.92 to 6.08 in 12 months, nearly a 24% decline in the real. A one-year forward would have cost far less, something like 40-45 big figures, or less than half the actual move, and would have given you certainty as to the cost. Hedging matters!

Now, why, you may ask is this happening? Well, news that Brazilian president Lula da Silva had emergency brain surgery has clearly not helped the currency. Suddenly there are many questions over who is running the country and how they will address the ongoing fiscal issues that are extant. As an aside, this is likely another deterrent to the idea of a BRICS currency appearing any time soon, if ever.

Turning our gaze elsewhere, the situation in Syria continues to unfold with no clear outcome although increased concerns over what will happen with the beleaguered people of that nation and whether it will foment yet another immigration wave into Europe and elsewhere in the Middle East. However, right now, the oil market remains nonplussed over this issue as evidenced by yet another day of quiet trading and a slow drift lower in the price (-0.55%).

However, we cannot ignore Taiwan, where China is currently in the process of military maneuvers that appear to be simulating a naval blockade of the nation. Price action here has shown the TWD (-0.4%) sliding further and pushing back toward its weakest level in more than 15 years (since the GFC), while the TAIEX stock index (-0.65%) is also feeling a little heat, although the story there has been one of consistent gains over the past several years, following the NASDAQ higher given the breadth of technology companies there, notably TSMC.

Putting it all together leaves one wanting with respect to their risk appetite this morning as today seems like another step closer to that Fourth Turning. So, it should be no surprise that after a down day yesterday in the US, with all three major equity indices declining, we have seen far more red than green on the screens overnight. The exception to this rule was in Korea, where the KOSPI (+2.4%) rose sharply as it appears that things are starting to revert to more normalcy there politically. President Yoon is under pressure to resign and seems likely to be impeached and the government is back to functioning in more of its ordinary manner. But elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong (-0.5%), Australia (-0.5%) and most of the smaller regional bourses were lower although the Nikkei (+0.5%) rallied on the back of the yen’s renewed weakness, and mainland Chinese shares (+0.7%) seemed to begin to believe that more stimulus is, in fact, on its way. We shall see about that.

In Europe, the bourses range from flat (DAX, IBEX) to down CAC (-0.5%), FTSE 100 (-0.5%) with both these nations suffering from their own political distress. French President Macron is trying to form a government but categorically refuses to include Marine Le Pen’s RN party so has no chance of a majority with concerns growing over the fiscal situation there. Apparently, if they cannot get a financing bill passed, the French will get to experience the heretofore unique American experience of a government shutdown. Meanwhile, PM Starmer is watching his ratings circle the drain as his government continues to try to raise revenues by raising taxes on the rich and finding out that one thing rich people are really good at is creating new methods of operations to avoid paying higher taxes. While there is no vote necessary in the UK for years (remember, Starmer won election just this past July 4^th) it certainly feels like his government is going to fall sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, US futures are little changed at this hour (7:30).

In the bond market, yields are rebounding with Treasuries higher by 3bps this morning after a 3bp rally yesterday. In Europe, there is very little change except for UK Gilts (+4bps) with concerns over inflation rising there while in Asia, Australian yields slipped 6bps on the dovish RBA. Generally speaking, the bond market has not been very exciting lately which is one reason, I believe, that things have not fallen apart. If we start to see more volatility here, watch out.

In the commodity markets, aside from oil’s modest decline, gold (+0.65%) continues to find support in this risk-off scenario although both copper and silver are little changed this morning after solid rallies yesterday.

Finally, the dollar is higher again this morning, with the DXY well back above 106.00 and every G10 currency declining led by NZD (-1.0%). This is suffering from the RBA’s dovishness which is expected to allow the RBNZ to maintain, or even increase, its own dovishness. But the whole bloc is softer. In the EMG bloc, there are a few currencies that are holding their own vs. the dollar this morning, but only just, with MXN (+0.2%) arguably the strongest currency around while CNY (+0.1%) is also relatively strong. But elsewhere in this bloc, ZAR (-0.7%), PLN (-0.55%), and CLP (-0.4%) are indicative of the type of price action we are seeing across the board. This is a dollar day, though, not really focusing on individual currency foibles.

On the data front, we see only Nonfarm Productivity (exp 2.2%) and Unit Labor Costs (1.5%) and that is really it. There was nothing yesterday and all eyes are truthfully turned toward tomorrow’s CPI data. Things don’t feel very positive right now, so I expect risk to remain on its back foot to start the day. However, given the number of uncertain situations that abound, anything can happen to either change that view or reinforce it. Once again, this is why you hedge, to mitigate the markets’ inherent volatility.

Good luck

Adf

Chaos is Spreading

Posted on December 4, 2024 by fxpoet

Around the world, chaos is spreading
As government norms get a shredding
Korea’s the latest
But not near the greatest
Seems to the Fourth Turning we’re heading

While Russia/Ukraine knows no end
And Israel seeks to defend
The French are about
To toss Michel out
And all this ere Trump does ascend

If you view markets through a macro lens, the current environment can only be described as insane. Niel Howe and William Strauss wrote a book back in 1997 called The Fourth Turning (which I cannot recommend highly enough) that described a generational cycle structure that has played out for hundreds of years. If you have ever heard the saying

Hard times make strong men (1^st Turning)
Strong men make good times (2^nd Turning)
Good times make soft men (3^rd Turning)
Soft men make hard times (4^th Turning)

Or anything in the same vein, this book basically describes the process and how it evolves. The essence is that about every 20-25 years, a new generation, raised by its parents whose formative years were in the previous Turning, falls into one of these scenarios. Howe and Strauss explained that at the time they wrote the book, we were in the middle of the 3^rd Turning, and that the 4^th Turning would be upon us through the 2020’s. One of the features they highlighted was that every 4^th Turning was highlighted by major conflict (WWII, Civil War, Revolutionary War, etc.) with the implication that we could well be heading toward one now.

Of course, we already have a few minor wars with Russia/Ukraine (although that seems to have the potential to be more problematic) and Israel/Hezbollah/Hamas, with Iran hanging around the edges there. In a funny way, we have to hope this is the worst we get, but there are still more than 5 years left in the decade for things to deteriorate, so we are not nearly out of the woods yet.

But turmoil comes in many forms and political turmoil is also rampant these days. This is evident by the number of sitting governments that have been ejected in the most recent elections as well as the increasingly strident blaming of others for a nation’s current problems. In this vein, the latest situation will happen shortly when the French parliament votes on a no-confidence motion against the current PM, Michel Barnier. As it is, he is merely a caretaker PM put in place by President Macron after Macron’s election gamble in June failed miserably. Adding to France’s problems, and one way this comes back to the markets, is that the French fiscal situation is dire, with a current budget deficit exceeding 6% of GDP and no good way to shrink it. In fact, Barnier’s efforts to do so are what led to the current vote. I have already discussed French yields rising relative to their European peers and the underperformance of the CAC as well.

On the one hand, today’s vote, which is tipped to eject Barnier, may well be the peak (or nadir) of the situation and things will only improve from the current worst case. However, it strikes me this is not likely to be the case. Rather, there are such a multitude of problems regarding immigration, culture, economic activity and government responsiveness, that we have not nearly found the end. My fear is we will need to see things deteriorate far more than they have before populations come together and agree that ending the mess is the most important outcome. Right now, there are two sides dug in on most issues and the split feels pretty even. As such, neither side is going to give up what they believe for the greater good, at least not yet.

And before I move on to the markets, I cannot ignore the remarkable events in South Korea yesterday, where President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law in the early hours on the basis of the opposition’s efforts to paralyze the government (I guess that means they didn’t agree with him). In the end, the Korean Parliament voted to rescind the order, and the military has since stood down with all eyes on the next steps including likely impeachment hearings for the President. Not surprisingly, Korean assets suffered during this situation with the won tumbling briefly, more than 2.6%, before retracing the bulk of those losses once the order was rescinded.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Too, the KOSPI (-1.5%) suffered although that was off the worst levels of the day after things settled down. The point to keep in mind here is that markets are subsidiaries of economies. They may give indications of expectations for the future, or sentiments of the current situation, but if we continue to see geopolitical flare ups, markets are going to respond as investors seek havens. In this case, the dollar, despite all its flaws, remains the safest choice in many investors’ eyes, so should remain well bid overall.

Ok, let’s look at how markets have been behaving through this current turmoil. In Asia, given the events in Korea, it ought not be surprising that equities had little traction. Japanese shares were unchanged as were Hong Kong although mainland Chinese (-0.5%) and Australian (-0.4%) shares were under some pressure. That said, Australia suffered on weaker than forecast GDP data which puts more pressure on the RBA to cut rates despite inflation remaining sticky. Australia dragged down New Zealand (-1.5%) shares as well with really the only notable winner overnight being Taiwan (+1.0%). In Europe, investors seem to be betting on a more aggressive ECB as somewhat weaker than expected PMI Services data has led to gains on the continent (DAX +0.85%, CAC +0.5%, IBEX +0.7%) although UK shares (-0.2%) are not enjoying the same boost. I guess the French market has already priced in the lack of a working government, hence the market’s underperformance all year. US futures, at this hour (8:00) are pointing higher by between 0.3% and 0.6%.

In the bond market, yields are rising, with Treasuries (+4bps) leading the way although most of Europe are higher by between 3bps and 4bps. It has the feel that bond markets are starting to decouple from central banks as they see inflationary pressures building and central banks still in active cutting mode. I fear this will get messier as time goes on.

In the commodity markets, oil is unchanged this morning, right at $70/bbl, having continued its rally for the week on news that OPEC+ will maintain its production cuts through March 2025. NatGas (-2.0%) has been sliding since the spike seen 2 weeks ago ahead of the current cold spell as warmer weather is forecast for next week. In the metals market, gold (-0.2%) seems stuck in the mud right now while silver (-1.3%) and copper (-0.6%) appear to be victims of the dollar’s strength.

Turning to the dollar, it is stronger across the board with AUD (-1.3%) the laggard after that GDP data and it dragged NZD (-1.0%) down with it. JPY (-1.1%) is also under pressure as hopes for that BOJ rate hike dissipate. Away from those, the euro (-0.2%) and pound (-0.1%) are softer, but much less so. In the EMG bloc, ZAR (-0.5%) is feeling the weight of the weaker metals prices and we are seeing BRL (-0.3%) and CLP (-0.1%) also sliding slightly although both are stabilizing after more pronounced weakness earlier in the week.

On the data front, this morning brings ADP Employment. (exp 150K) along with ISM Services (55.5) and then the Fed’s Beige Book. Perhaps of more importance, at 12:45, Chairman Powell will be speaking and taking questions, so all eyes will be there looking for clues as to how the Fed will be viewing things going forward. Fed funds futures have been increasing the probability of that rate cut, now up to 74%, which implies we are going to see one, regardless of the inflation story.

Central banks around the world are in a bind as inflation refuses to fall like they want but many nations are seeing slowing economic activity. In the end, I expect that the rate cutting cycle has not ended, but the dollar is likely to remain well bid given both its haven status and the fact that the US economy is outperforming everywhere else.

Good luck

Adf

Growth Stank

Posted on November 22, 2024 by fxpoet

Three score and a year have now passed
Since flags in the States flew half-mast
In honor of Jack
Who wouldn’t backtrack
On his goal of world peace at last

It has been sixty-one years since President John F Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas. This was one of the most dramatic and impactful events in the history of the US with many still of the belief that it was an inside job. One needn’t wear a tin-foil hat all the time to recognize that the government has done nothing but grow dramatically since then, with the defense complex the leader of the pack. Perhaps in his second term, President Trump will release the case files in an effort to shine a light on the underbelly of the government. This poet has no idea what occurred that day (although I did recently visit the 6^th floor museum in Dallas, a quite interesting place) and I would guess that all these years later, there are very few, if any, people who may have been involved that are still alive. Of course, the risk is that powerful organizations like the CIA and FBI could be forever tarred with this if they were involved, and that would have dramatic implications going forward, hence their desire to maintain secrecy. I highlight this simply as another potential flashpoint in the upcoming Trump presidency.

The data from Europe revealed
That if there is growth, it’s concealed
The PMI’s sank
And German growth stank
Thus Christine, her razor, will wield

Let us now discuss the Eurozone. Not only do they have an increasingly hot war on their border and not only are they being inundated by a major blizzard interrupting power and transportation throughout France, Germany and Scandinavia, but their economies appear to be slowing down far more rapidly than previously anticipated. But that inflation was slowing as quickly!

This morning the Flash PMI data was released for Germany, France and the Eurozone as a whole, as well as the UK. It did not make for happy reading if you are a politician or policymaker in any of these nations.

Indicator	Current	Previous
	Germany
Manufacturing PMI	43.2	43.0
Services PMI	49.4	51.6
Composite PMI	47.3	48.6
	France
Manufacturing PMI	43.2	44.5
Services PMI	45.7	49.2
Composite PMI	44.8	48.1
	Eurozone
Manufacturing PMI	45.2	46.0
Services PMI	49.2	51.6
Composite PMI	48.1	50.0
	UK
Manufacturing PMI	48.6	49.9
Services PMI	50.0	52.0
Composite PMI	49.9	51.6

Source: tradingeconomics.com

One needn’t look too hard to see that the economic situation in Europe is ebbing toward a recession or at least toward much slower growth (German GDP was also released at a slower than expected 0.1% Q/Q, -0.3% Y/Y). While the ECB is very aware of this situation, the problem is that like most other central banks, their strong belief that inflation is going to reach their 2.0% goal has not yet been realized let alone shown an ability to stay at that level over time. However, the ongoing comments from ECB members is that more rate cuts are coming with only the timing and size in question. There is still a strong belief that interest rates in Europe (and the UK) are well above ‘neutral’.

Of course, it will not surprise you to see the chart of the EURUSD exchange rate given this information as the single currency ~~collapses~~ continues its sharp decline.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Since the end of September, the single currency has declined ~7.0% in a quite steady fashion. All the technical levels that had been in play have been broken with the next noteworthy level to consider being parity. I have been clear for a while that I expected the dollar to continue to perform well and nothing has changed that view. The combination of an increase in fear amid the escalation of tensions in Ukraine and Russia’s intimation that the US and NATO have entered the war already and the very divergent paths of the US and Eurozone economies can only lead to the conclusion that the euro is going to continue to decline for a while. And remember, this price action has very little to do with potential Trump tariff or other policies as they remain highly uncertain. The euro is simply a victim of its own leaders’ ineptitude on both the economic and diplomatic/military fronts. Any Trump tariffs that are imposed on Europe will simply add to the pain.

Before we head to other asset classes, let’s take a quick look beyond the euro in the FX markets. It should be no surprise that the dollar is broadly higher, although not universally so. Versus the rest of the G10, even the yen has not been able to find enough haven demand to hold up as the greenback rallies against them all with the euro (-0.6%) and pound (-0.6%) sharing honors as the laggards. However, in the EMG bloc, the picture is more mixed with CE4 currencies all sliding but ZAR (+0.4%) rallying amid the ongoing rebound in the price of gold (+1.2%) which is also benefitting from increased fear and risk disposition. As to Asian currencies, most were somewhat weaker but other than KRW (-0.4%) the moves were unimpressive.

On the commodity front, oil (-0.6%) is slipping a bit heading into the weekend but it has had an excellent week, rallying more than 4%. There are many cross tensions in this market as on one side we have fears that the Russia/Ukraine situation will impact supply, or that Iran will react to Israel’s ongoing campaign in Lebanon and do something about the Strait of Hormuz. These are obviously bullish for crude. But the flip side is that Trump has made very clear his desire to open up far more land for drilling and is seeking to increase supply substantially, a negative price signal.

Turning to bond markets, there is demand everywhere as the combination of risk aversion and weaker Eurozone growth have brought the buyers out of the woodwork. Treasury yields have slipped -4bps and in Europe, the entire continent is seeing yields decline between -7bps and. -8bps. After the PMI data this morning, the Euribor futures market upped pricing for a December ECB rate cut from a 15% to a 50% probability. Add to that comments from ECB members Stournaras and Guindos and it seems quite likely that rates in Europe are going to decline.

Finally, equity markets have shown very little consistency. Yesterday’s strong US rally was followed by strength in Japan (+0.7%) but massive weakness in China (CSI 300 -3.1%, Hang Seng -1.9%) as concerns over those Trump tariffs continue to weigh on investors there. However, it was only China that suffered as pretty much every other market in the region saw gains, with some (India +2.55, Taiwan +1.6%, New Zealand +2.1%) quite substantial. European shares, however, are more mixed with most continental bourses showing modest declines although the UK (+0.8%) has managed to buck that trend despite the weak PMI data and weak Retail Sales data as investors seem to be prepping for a BOE rate cut next month. As to US futures, at this hour (7:30) they are little changed.

Yesterday’s data showed Initial Claims sliding but Continuing Claims rising to their highest level, above 1.9M, in three years. It appears that while layoffs aren’t increasing, finding a job once you are unemployed is much tougher. Philly Fed was also softer than forecast and that seemed to help the Fed funds futures market push up the probability of a December cut to 59% this morning, up from 55% yesterday. This morning, we see the Flash PMI data here (exp Mfg 48.5, Services 55.0) and then Michigan Sentiment (73.7). There are no Fed speakers on the schedule so I expect that this morning’s trends may run for a little longer, but as it is Friday, I would not be surprised to see a little reversal amid week ending profit taking. However, the dollar has further to go, mark my words.

Good luck and good weekend

Adf

Missiles are Flying

Posted on November 21, 2024 by fxpoet

Apparently, nerves are on edge
Though pundits, no worries, allege
But missiles are flying
So, traders are buying
Safe havens as they start to hedge

So, it cannot be that surprising
The dollar and gold keep on rising
While sales are quite brisk
For assets with risk
Like stocks with investors downsizing

While some of you may be concerned over the news that Russia has launched an intercontinental ballistic missile in an its latest attack on Ukraine (as an aside, since both Russia and Ukraine are in Europe, was it really intercontinental?), by focusing on mundane aspects of life and death, you may have missed the truly important news release from yesterday afternoon, Nvidia’s guidance was disappointing and its stock price declined! It is for situations like this that I write this morning missive, to make sure you focus on the important stuff.

All kidding aside, the knock-on effects of the escalation of the fight in Ukraine are likely to be more impactful over time, especially for Europe. Consider the fact that most of Europe has recently been blanketed by a major winter storm with much colder than normal temperatures, and another one is forecast for the coming days. As well, part of this weather pattern is weaker than normal wind speeds, so much of the continent is suffering a dunkelflaute again. The energy implications are significant as both wind and solar power are virtually non-existent which means they are hugely reliant on NatGas to both keep the lights on and keep warm.

However, Europeans continue their energy suicide and have recently closed one of the only domestic sources of NatGas to satisfy their Green tendencies. This means they will be buying more LNG and competing more aggressively with Asia for cargoes. While NatGas prices in the US have risen sharply in the past month, ~46%, they remain far below prices in Europe, less than one-quarter as expensive. It is exactly this reason that an increasing number of companies in Europe are looking to relocate to areas with less expensive energy, like the US, and why investment in the US continues to outpace investment elsewhere. Look no further than this to understand a key ingredient of the dollar’s ongoing strength.

Of course, there is another story that is dominating the press, the ongoing Trump cabinet picks and all the prognostications as to what they all mean for the future of US policies. You literally cannot read a story without someone elsewhere in the world quoted as explaining they are awaiting the inauguration to see how things evolve and so they are postponing any new actions. This is true for both governments and private companies (although obviously, the Biden administration is taking the opposite tack of trying to do as much as possible before the inauguration, like starting WWIII it seems).

And that is the world this morning, anxiety over the escalation in Ukraine, disappointment that Nvidia didn’t beat the most optimistic forecast expectations and uncertainty over what President-elect Trump is going to do once he is in office. It is with this in mind that we look at markets and see that the best performances are coming from havens and necessities. On days like this, risk does not seem as appetizing.

Let’s start in the commodity markets this morning, where oil (+2.0%) is responding to both the Russia/Ukraine escalation and the US veto of a UN ceasefire resolution in Gaza with both of these prompting increased concerns of a short-term supply disruption. While yesterday’s US inventory data showed some builds, for now, fear is the greater factor. Meanwhile, NatGas (+6.3%) is skyrocketing amid forecasts for colder weather as a polar blast hits both Europe and the West Coast. While the longer-term implications of a Trump presidency are for energy prices to stabilize or decline on the back of increased supply, that is not yet the case. Meanwhile, gold (+0.5%) continues its rebound from its recent correction as havens are clearly in demand. Remember, too, that almost every central bank remains in easing mode as they all convince themselves they have beaten inflation.

However, a look at equity markets shows a less resilient picture, at least from Asia where we saw the Nikkei (-0.85%) slip after that Nvidia result and the Hang Seng (-0.5%) also feel that pain. Remember, these indices are very tech focused and Nvidia remains the tech bellwether. While mainland Chinese shares were little changed, there was weakness in India, Taiwan, Malaysia and Indonesia, as a taste of how things behaved overnight. Europe, though, is managing to shake off some of its concerns and most markets have edged higher, between 0.2% and 0.4% although the CAC (-0.15%) is lagging. The latter is somewhat ironic given that French Business Confidence rose more than expected to 97, although that is merely back toward the long-term average of that series. Arguably, the European move is on the back of US futures, which had been lower all evening but at this hour (7:30) are now all in the green by at least 0.2%.

However, under the heading havens are in demand, bond yields are backing off a bit with Treasury yields lower by -2bps and most European sovereigns lower by between -1bp and -3bps. The tension in this market remains between recent declines in some inflation readings and growing concerns over the potential inflationary policies that President Trump will enact when he gets into office. Nothing has changed my view that inflation is not dead and that a grind higher in yields seems the most likely outcome.

Finally, the dollar continues to find support versus almost all its counterparts, although this morning the yen (+0.5%) is demonstrating its own haven characteristics. But broadly, the DXY is higher by 0.1% with the euro creeping ever closer to 1.0500 and the pound to 1.2600. As well, NOK (+0.3%) is benefitting from the oil’s rise. This latter relationship, which makes perfect economic sense given the importance of oil to Norway’s economy, has been quite strong for a long time as can be seen in the chart below. While daily wiggles may be different, the only true disruption was the start of the Ukraine war where oil jumped massively, and NOK did not follow along given its proximity to the war. But otherwise, it’s pretty clear.

Source: tradingeconomics.com (NOKUSD is the inverse of what you typically see)

As to the emerging markets, we are seeing weakness in LATAM (BRL -0.8%, MXN -0.5%) as well as EEMEA (PLN -0.3%, CZK -0.5%, HUF -0.5%) although ZAR (+0.2%) seems to be benefitting from the ongoing rise in gold. Asian currencies were much less impacted overnight and have not moved much at all.

On the data front, this morning brings the weekly Initial (exp 220K) and Continuing (1870K) Claims data as well as Philly Fed (8.0) and then at 10:00 Existing Home Sales (3.93M) and Leading Indicators (-0.3%). Chicago Fed president Goolsbee speaks this afternoon, but again, it would be quite a surprise if he veers away from Powell’s comments last week. This morning, the Fed funds futures are pricing a 55.7% probability of that December rate cut, and today’s data seems unlikely to change that. Next week’s PCE data will be far more important.

It is interesting to see the equity market rebound but there is a huge amount of belief that Mr Trump is going to fix everything. While I hope his policies improve the situation, and there is much to improve, it will take time before we see any truly positive impacts I believe. I understand that markets are forward looking, but clarity remains elusive at this time. The one thing that remains clear to me, though, is the demand for dollars is likely to continue for a while yet.

Good luck

Adf

Kind of a Ruse

Posted on November 20, 2024 by fxpoet

The central bank mantra worldwide
Is ‘flation is set to subside
So, rate cuts remain
The path they’ll maintain
With alternate views all denied

But weirdly, despite these strong views
The data just seems to refuse
To show ‘flation slowing
In fact, it keeps showing
Their comments were kind of a ruse

Ask any central banker around the world their view on the path of inflation and I assure you they will claim it is slowing and will return to their 2% goal over time. They will point to obscure signals some months, and headline inflation prints other months, but nothing will dissuade them from this view.

Now, I am just an FX guy and so clearly don’t have the same expertise in econometric modeling that all those PhD’s in all those central banks have but…it does sort of seem like all their models simply have 2% as one side of the equation and they use goal-seek in Excel to create their outcomes. And anyway, how did 2% become the “natural” rate of inflation? After all, that inflation rate was literally pulled out of thin air by RBNZ Governor Donald Brash back in 1990 and has been copied by virtually every other central bank around the world since.

But, whatever the history, that is the goal and recent data from countries throughout the G10 show that prices are not really converging to this rate. The UK is the latest to release data with the Headline CPI rising 2.3%, a tick more than expected and Core rose 3.3%, 2 ticks more than expected. It seems that the same problems the Fed is having with services ex-shelter are being felt in many places around the world. This is the portion of the CPI basket that is most directly impacted by wages and wages continue to rise (which is a good thing for most people), just not necessarily quickly enough to keep up with inflation. For example, Eurozone Negotiated Wage Growth rose 5.42% in Q3, its fastest rise since the Eurozone was formally created as per the chart below. It strikes me that the ECB is going to find it very difficult to push prices lower absent causing a deep enough recession where layoffs are widespread, and wages fall. And my guess is that is not one of their goals.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Of course, we all know the situation here in the States, where the CPI data has formed a base above 3% and seems far more likely to rise than fall, also absent a major recession.

Ultimately, it begs the question why we care about this data (other than the obvious reason we all have to live with rising prices) from a market perspective. To the extent that monetary policy is a key driver of markets around the world, and relative monetary policy is an important input into the value of different currencies, the relative inflation rates are a critical piece of the puzzle to try to figure out what is happening and how one can hedge their exposures. So, if inflation rates everywhere are slow to return to that sacred 2% level, then different central banks are going to behave differently in order to achieve their goals.

For instance, earlier this week we saw the Minutes of the RBA’s meeting where they were distinctly hawkish regarding the fact that inflation does not seem to be falling the way they ~~hoped~~ ~~prayed for~~ expected based on their models. As such, markets adjusted their pricing for interest rates to remain higher for longer and that helped support the AUD on a relative basis. This morning, amidst a broad-based dollar rally, the pound (-0.25%) is the second-best performer in the G10, after the dollar, as the higher than forecast CPI data has traders expecting the BOE to slow the pace of rate cuts to address the issue. And this is why we care.

Remember, too, while there is currently an extraordinary amount of digital ink being spilled as pundits around the world try to anticipate what President-elect Trump is going to do regarding fiscal policy and tariffs and how that is going to impact relative trade flows as well as monetary policy responses to these actions, my take is that is an enormous waste of time. The first thing we know is that nobody, not even Trump himself, really knows how this is going to play out as there are so many potential paths down which he can tread. And second, the situation seems akin to Keynes’ famous analogy to a beauty contest where you need to select the person who the crowd thinks is the most beautiful, not the one you may think fits that description. In other words, trying to predict the outcome implies understanding what everyone else is expecting, and right now, expectations are widely disparate.

It is for this reason that hedging is so critical, and having a consistent hedging plan is key. None of us has a crystal ball, and managing risk is far more about mitigating big drawdowns than capturing big gains.

Ok, a little long-winded this morning so let’s zip through the overnight market activities. Mixed is the best description for yesterday’s US session, with the DJIA sliding while the other two major indices rallied a touch. It also describes the Asian session overnight as the Nikkei (-0.2%) slipped along with Australia (-0.6%) while China and Hong Kong both managed modest 0.2% gains. The PBOC left Loan Rates unchanged last night, as widely forecast and I expect they will not do anything until Trump is in office and has his team in place. As to European bourses, they are all in the green this morning, but just barely so, with gains between 0.1% and 0.3%, hardly exciting. As to US futures, they are edging higher this morning by 0.1% or so as the most important news in the world, Nvidia earnings, are due to be released after the close today.

In the bond market, yesterday’s yield declines are being almost perfectly reversed this morning with Treasury yields higher by 3bps and European sovereign yields rising between 4bps and 6bps. Certainly, the higher inflation print in the UK has not helped sentiment and I suppose there is some reaction to some of Trump’s recently announced Cabinet picks, notably the Commerce Secretary choice, Howard Lutnick, who is by all accounts a major proponent of tariffs.

In the commodity markets, oil (+0.5%) is holding its recent gains although WTI remains below $70/bbl. My take is that a Trump presidency is going to be quite negative for the price of oil as reduced regulations on drilling along with access to more sites will see production increase. As to the metals markets, gold (-0.2%) has slowed its recent rebound, as has silver (-1.2%) although copper (+0.6%) is holding its own this morning. The last week has seen the metals markets recoup a substantial portion of the recent drawdown although all of them remain lower than levels seen a month ago.

Finally, the dollar is back in fine form this morning, rising against all its counterpart currencies. The laggards in the G10 are NOK (-0.8%) and SEK (-0.8%) although the euro (-0.5%) is under severe pressure again as it continues to probe toward the key 1.0500 technical level. In the EMG bloc, HUF (-1.0%) is the laggard although most of the bloc is softer by between -0.3% and -0.5%. We continue to see CNY (-0.25%) slide as the dollar pushes back above 7.25 this morning. That is the level that has held things in check for the past 5 years, and many believe that when Trump takes office, we could see the renminbi weaken much further once tariffs are imposed. Of course, one of the things the PBOC has been fighting for a long time is a chaotic slide in the renminbi as that does not suit President Xi’s goals of stability to encourage more use by other parties.

The only US data today is the EIA oil inventories with a modest build expected after last week’s large draws. Yesterday’s housing data was a touch weaker than expected and we have heard very little from Fed speakers since Powell explained he was sauntering toward the next rate cut rather than hurrying there. As of this morning, the market probability of that cut happening in December sits at 57%, which is the lowest it has been since the previous meeting.

There are many cross currents in the market narrative at this time with nothing remotely clear. The one thing we know about Donald Trump is he has the capacity to surprise absolutely everyone with his actions, regardless of his words. Again, this is what informs us that a consistent hedging program is the only way to mitigate against major surprises.

Good luck

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Whining and Bleating

Posted on November 19, 2024 by fxpoet

In Rio, the G20’s meeting
With typical whining and bleating
No progress was made
On tariffs or trade
And Trump, though not there, took a beating

Seems leaders in most of these nations
Are fearful of future relations
With Trump and the States
Which just demonstrates
How low are their own expectations

I guess the idea of these broad talking shops is rooted in a desire to keep open lines of communication between parties with different views on the way things should be in the world. But, boy, the G20 has really deteriorated over time. Probably, this is merely a symptom of the underlying changes in international relations. Remember, the G20 is an outgrowth of the Group of 7 nations (US, Germany, UK, Japan, France, Canada and Italy) and only began in 1999. The idea was to help develop the globalization initiative by creating an organization that included both developed and developing nations. It was this group that led to China joining the WTO in 2001 and, ironically, which laid the groundwork for its own slow disintegration.

This is not to say that these leaders are going to stop meeting each year, just that the opportunity for substantive policy proposals has likely passed us by. And understand, this has been the case for a while now as the Chinese mercantilist policy has seemingly reached the end of its global acceptance. While President-elect Trump tends to get the most bashing for this, one need look no further than Europe to see tariff and non-tariff barriers rising quickly. Below, I will allow Bloomberg’s reporters to summarize some of the key issues highlighting the lack of agreement on anything.

Germany’s Olaf Scholz and France’s Emmanuel Macron are pushing for tougher language in the summit communique against Hamas and Russia on the wars. Brazil doesn’t want to reopen the text, fearing that it will reignite battles over other issues too.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer irritated Chinese officials by raising human rights and the issue of Taiwan with President Xi Jinping at their first bilateral meeting.
The potential impact of Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House on trade and diplomatic relations hung over many of the day’s bilaterals.
The rivalry between host Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Argentina’s Javier Milei was on full display on everything from the role of the state in fighting poverty to climate change, with the latter leader maintaining his contrarian stance to some of the key points in the summit’s statement.
There was even drama around the traditional family photo, which US President Joe Biden, Canada’s Justin Trudeau and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni somehow missed.

As I said, I expect that these meetings will continue but their usefulness is very likely to continue to deteriorate. One way you know that this process has reached the end of the road is that no financial markets have reacted to any commentary from anyone at the meeting. In the past, the G20 statement or comments from leaders on the sidelines would move markets as they implied policy shifts. No longer. Remember, too, that at least four of these leaders are lame ducks (Biden, Macron, Scholz and Trudeau) and will be out of office within a year.

Away from the photos and sun
Investors see fear and not fun
Ukraine’s getting hotter
Midst greater manslaughter
While pundits, new stories, have spun

However, if we step away from the glitz (?) of the G20 meeting, markets are demonstrating a fearful tone this morning. Yesterday saw US equities with a mixed session as investors continue to try to determine the impacts of President Trump’s return. Will there be tariffs? If so, how big and on what products? And which companies will benefit or be hurt by the process. Generally speaking, the thought has been small-cap companies would be the big beneficiaries while both Big Pharma and Big Food would feel pressure from this new administration. But how has that impacted other nations and other markets?

In truth, I have a feeling one of the key issues this morning is that President Biden’s change in policy to allow Ukraine to fire long-range missiles into Russia is now a growing concern. Russia has altered their nuclear response policy, essentially threatening that if this keeps up, they will both blame the US and NATO and respond with nuclear weapons if they determine that is appropriate. Funnily enough, investors, especially those in Europe, have determined that may not be a positive outcome for European companies. Hence, bourses across the continent are all lower this morning with declines greater than -1.1% everywhere with Poland (-2.1%) the laggard. As to Asian markets overnight, they were broadly firmer as the potential escalation in Europe is likely to have a smaller impact there. But US futures are under pressure this morning, -0.4% across the board at this hour (6:30).

That risk off feeling is being felt in bond markets as well, with yields falling everywhere as investors switch from stocks to bonds. Treasury yields have fallen -6bps and we are seeing similar declines, between -4bps and -6bps, across the continent as well. Fear is palpable this morning here.

This fear is clear in the commodity markets as well where oil (-1.0% after a 3.3% rally yesterday) is softer along with copper (-0.7%) but precious metals (Au +0.8%, Ag +0.5%) are both in demand. The one other noteworthy move this morning is NatGas (+0.6%), bucking the oil trend as despite the oft-feared global boiling (to use UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres term), Europe is feeling an unseasonable cold spell with rain and temperatures just 40° Fahrenheit, some 15° below normal.

Finally, the dollar is back on top this morning as fear has driven investors and savers to holding the greenback despite all its problems. Using the Dollar Index (DXY) as our proxy, you can see from the below chart that despite all the huffing and puffing that the post-election climb of the dollar had ended last Thursday, in fact, we have only seen a very modest correction of the sharp election move and my take is we have higher to go from here.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Adding to the risk-off thesis is the fact the JPY (+0.4%) is firmer and CHF (0.0%) has not declined with both of those traditional havens holding up well. One other note is AUD (-0.2%) is one of the better performers after the RBA Minutes last night indicated that the central bank Down Under is also in no hurry to cut rates with fears of inflation still percolating there. A quick look across the EMG bloc shows us that virtually all these currencies are softer with PLN (-0.8%) and ZAR (-0.65%) the laggards. I guess given the concerns over Poland and a potential escalation of the war in Ukraine, it is no surprise the zloty is under pressure.

On the data front, this morning brings Housing Starts (exp 1.33M) and Building Permits (1.43M) as well as Canadian inflation (1.9% headline, 2.4% Median). There are no Fed speakers scheduled today and quite frankly; it doesn’t strike me that Housing data is critical to decision making right now. Fear is in the air and that is likely to continue to drive markets. With that in mind, a deeper equity correction along with continued USD strength seem like the best bets for the day.

Good luck

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fxpoetry

Explaining the rhyme and rhythm of the FX markets each day

Tag Archives: #higherdollar

A Future Quite Noeth

Falling Further

Havoc the Dollar Will Wreak

A New Denouement

Just Won’t Evanesce

Chaos is Spreading

Growth Stank

Missiles are Flying

Kind of a Ruse

Whining and Bleating